Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again Box Office Prediction

Arriving just over 10 years to the day after its predecessor, Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again dances into theaters next weekend, looking to be queen of the box office over other sequel competition. The 2008 original was based on a popular stage musical incorporating the music of Swedish super group ABBA and it turned into a behemoth at the multiplex. Returning cast members include Meryl Streep (in her first ever sequel), Amanda Seyfried, Pierce Brosnan, Colin Firth, Christine Baranski, Julie Walters, Stellan Skarsgard, and Dominic Cooper. Newbies include Lily James, Andy Garcia, and Cher. Ol Parker takes over directorial duties from Phyllida Lloyd.

Mamma Mia! held the distinction of being the highest grossing live-action musical of all time until 2017’s Beauty and the Beast topped it. It opened to $27.7 million and legged out quite well to a $144 million domestic total. The worldwide haul was a fantastic $615 million. Ten years is a significant gap between sequels, but the fan base seems likely to turn out and there’s little else marketing an older and female crowd. Two others sequels debuting over the weekend – The Equalizer 2 and Unfriended: Dark Web – are going for different demographics.

It seems reasonable to me that Again could debut about 20% higher than the first and it remains to be seen if it holds as well as part 1 in subsequent weekends.

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again opening weekend prediction: $33.5 million

For my The Equalizer 2 prediction, click here:

For my Unfriended: Dark Web prediction, click here:

Warcraft Box Office Prediction

The theme of the new releases for the second week of June 2016 have major ties to the summer of 2013. The Conjuring 2 is the sequel to the horror hit that came out that season three years ago. Now You See Me 2 is the follow-up to the surprise blockbuster that also hit screens that same season. Where we can find a Summer 2013 connection to Warcraft?

Well, it may be just M. Night Shyamalan’s After Earth. If that sounds like a bad omen, you wouldn’t be wrong. The pic is, of course, based on the wildly popular video game series that dates back to 1994. That game has spawned comics, cards, magazines, and more and has a highly faithful fan base. It was only a matter of time before it got the big screen treatment and Universal Pictures tapped Duncan Jones to make it. Mr. Jones (son of David Bowie) is known for critically lauded sci-fi entries Moon and Source Code. Travis Fimmel, Paula Patton, Ben Foster, and Dominic Cooper are among the humans battling lots of CG creatures.

Warcraft comes with a giant budget of $160 million. It also comes with mostly negative word of mouth and reviews (it sits at just 24% on Rotten Tomatoes). The film will need a very strong showing by its devotees to avoid being a costly dud and that could be a tall order. The love for the game could push this higher than my prediction, but I’m skeptical. Competition is strong with the aforementioned sequels to The Conjuring and Now You See Me. 

The comparison to After Earth could be apt as it was another big-budget genre tale with poor reviews and troubling buzz. That Will Smith title made $27.5 million for its start and I believe Warcraft could have trouble matching even that.

Warcraft opening weekend prediction: $23.3 million

For my The Conjuring 2 prediction, click here:

For my Now You See Me 2 prediction, click here:

Dracula Untold Box Office Prediction

Universal Pictures has had great success in their history with monster movies and they’ll try to replicate it with Dracula Untold, opening Friday. Luke Evans (mostly known as the bad guy in Fast and Furious 6) plays the title character with Sarah Gadon, Dominic Cooper, and Samantha Barks costarring.

The release date is no doubt timed to try and capitalize on audiences in a Halloween state of mind. One factor not in its favor could be that Annabelle will be entering weekend #2. While the doll pic is likely primed for a big fall in its sophomore frame, it certainly would count as direct competition. Then there’s Ouija opening just two weeks after. Dracula Untold comes with a hefty $100 million budget and Universal faces long odds recouping that cost domestically.

In fact, as I see it, this will fall far short of that. The film has received mostly negative reviews and sits at 31% on Rotten Tomatoes (not that critical reaction means much when it comes to this genre). Dracula Untold seems to have one thing going for it: the fact that the word “Dracula” is in the title. However, that didn’t mean much for I, Frankenstein earlier this year – which managed only $8.6 million in its first weekend..

Dracula Untold should be able to outpace that, though I’ll predict it only posts a premiere in mid single digits.

Dracula Untold opening weekend prediction: $14.4 million

For my prediction on The Judge, click here:

For my prediction on Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day, click here:

For my prediction on Addicted, click here:

Need for Speed Box Office Prediction

Based on the most successful video game series of all time, this Friday’s Need for Speed hopes to bring in a good portion of the Fast and Furious franchise when it debuts. The car chase action fest showcases the first major starring role for “Breaking Bad” costar Aaron Paul with Dominic Cooper and Michael Keaton rounding out the cast.

It has been proven over and over again for the last two decades that a massive video game doesn’t translate into box office success – Super Mario Bros. anyone? However, Speed has done a decent job at marketing itself as a Fast and Furious type experience and that should allow it to have a pretty solid premiere.

Need for Speed could potentially approach the $30 million opening that Olympus Has Fallen achieved in March 2013. I believe a more likely scenario is somewhere in the mid 20s.

Need for Speed opening weekend prediction: $25.3 million

For my prediction on Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club, click here: