Lionsgate is hoping for some doggone solid returns when Arthur the King debuts March 15th. Based on the real life tale of an adventure racing team who pick up a wounded hound on their trek, Mark Wahlberg heads the cast with Simon Cellan Jones (who recently directed the lead in The Family Plan) behind the camera. Costars include Simu Liu, Juliet Rylance, Nathalie Emmanuel, Ali Suliman, Paul Guilfoyle, and Bears Grylls (as Bear Grylls).
Canine content can exceed expectations at multiplexes. Channing Tatum’s directorial debut Dog took in nearly $15 million in February 2022. That could be a fair comp and there’s where I have it getting pretty close to.
Arthur the King opening weekend prediction: $12.5 million
**Blogger’s Update (02/03): There are reports that the film is only releasing on around 1500 screens. Therefore I am revising my estimate down significantly from $17.7M to $10.7M. If the theater count changes, I will update accordingly.
A decade after they turned a meagerly budgeted $7 million dramedy into a $100M+ hit, Magic Mike’s Last Dance is the third iteration (or gyration) of Steven Soderbergh and Channing Tatum’s franchise. The former returns to direct after sitting out 2015’s sequel Magic Mike XXL after helming the 2012 original. The latter is back in the role that turned him into a superstar. His costars from the first two are MIA, but Salma Hayek Pinault, Ayub Khan Din, and Caitlin Gerard join the fun.
After being absent onscreen for several years, Tatum returned to multiplexes in 2022 with his directorial debut Dog ($61 million domestic gross) and The Lost City alongside Sandra Bullock ($105 million stateside). Last Dance was originally slated for an HBO Max premiere before Warner Bros opted for the theatrical output.
It’s worth noting that Magic Mike XXL couldn’t match part 1. The 2012 model made $113 million. XXL generated half of that with $66 million. The diminishing returns could continue unless female moviegoers are feeling especially nostalgic. That’s possible, but I’m skeptical. Some of that demographic may opt for the Titanic re-release instead. Low teens is probably the floor and I don’t believe this surpasses $20 million out of the gate.
Magic Mike’s Last Dance opening weekend prediction: $10.7 million
For my Titanic 25th Anniversary prediction, click here:
When the two leads of Dog – one of the human variety and another of the canine persuasion – find their rhythm with each other, so does the film. That takes too long (about half of the running time) as we road trip though cartoonish potential threesomes and Mr. Magoo inspired humor. The screenplay from co-director Reid Carolin can’t seem to get out of its own way for the initial stretch. Fortunately Channing Tatum is the other co-director and his chemistry with the title character hits a stride in the back sections.
Tatum’s character was dropped into the Cool Sounding Movie Name Generator and out spat Jackson Briggs. He’s an ex Army Ranger doing menial jobs stateside and pining for a return of duty. When his former brother in arms dies in a car accident, he gets an assignment but not one sought. Briggs is tasked with transporting the deceased’s military dog Lulu from Washington State to the funeral in Arizona. Both Jackson and Lulu are suffering from PTSD. This is scheduled to be the latter’s final assignment as the aggressive hound will be euthanized following the burial.
While nothing in Dog says anything particularly fresh about its subject matter, the rapport between the stars elevates the material. It’s certainly their show as the supporting actors are bit players. Jane Adams and Kevin Nash show up as farmers of the up in smoke variety in one of the would be farcical excursions. Three Belgian Malinois portray the role of Lulu. Tatum was inspired by a real road trip that he took with his ailing pooch in creating the story. The dramatic stuff works better than the attempts at comedy in the early goings. More of that may have helped and Dog is roughly (or ruffly) equal parts hit and miss.
After a lengthy COVID delay, Morbius with Jared Leto sinks its teeth into multiplexes this weekend. It’s the only new release and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The third entry in the Spider-Man Extended Universe after the massively successful Venom flicks, Morbius likely won’t approach their numbers. Mid to high 40s, however, should easily nab it the #1 spot.
After an impressive start, look for the Sandra Bullock/Channing Tatum comedic adventure The Lost City to dip in the mid 40s with The Batman sliding to third. The five spot could be close between the sophomore frame of RRR: Rise, Roar, Revolt (which should experience a steep decline) and Uncharted.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Morbius
Predicted Gross: $45.8 million
2. The Lost City
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
3. The Batman
Predicted Gross: $12 million
4. Uncharted
Predicted Gross: $3.1 million
5. RRR: Rise, Roar, Revolt
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
Box Office Results (March 25-27)
As mentioned, The Lost City premiered on the high end of estimates with $30.4 million (reaching just past my $28.4 million take). After a pair of Netflix hits, Bullock posted a pleasing debut and Tatum has his second solid performer in a row after Dog.
The Batman fell to second after three weeks on top with $20.4 million, in range with my $21.6 million projection. The Caped Crusader reboot has amassed $331 million.
The Indian action drama RRR had the best per screen average as it began with $9.5 million, rising ahead of my $7.8 million prediction.
Uncharted was fourth with $5 million, falling short of my $6.1 million guesstimate. The six-week tally is $133 million.
Jujutsu Kaisen 0 rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (I said $5 million) for a two-week haul of $27 million.
X was sixth with $2.2 million, a tad under my $2.7 million prediction for $8 million overall in its first 10 days.
Dog was seventh with $2.2 million. I went with $2.7 million and the gross is $57 million.
**Blogger’s Update (03/24): The Indian period adventure RRR is slated for a release on over 1100 screens and it could be a sleeper hit for the weekend based on buzz and pre-sales. I’m adding it in the mix for a third place debut.
Sandra Bullock, Channing Tatum, Brad Pitt, and Daniel Radcliffe will try to dislodge The Batman from its three-week perch atop the charts when The Lost City debuts this Friday. It’s the only newcomer this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on the comedic adventure here:
My mid to high 20s estimate for the well reviewed City gets it to first place as long as The Batman sees a drop in the high 30s to low 40s range. It could end up being a close race, but I’m giving Bullock and company the benefit of the doubt.
As for the rest of the top 5, current #2 Jujutsu Kaisen 0 easily surpassed expectations in its debut (more on that below), but the sophomore drop should be steep (similar to the 70% fall of animated manga tale Demon Slayer). That would leave Uncharted in third with Kaisen fourth. In the five spot, Dog (also with Channing Tatum) may have a slighter dip than X in what might be a tight race for that position.
And with that, here’s my take on this Oscar frame’s top 7 performers:
1. The Lost City
Predicted Gross: $28.4 million
2. The Batman
Predicted Gross: $21.6 million
3. RRR
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
4. Uncharted
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
5. Jujutsu Kaisen 0
Predicted Gross: $5 million
6. Dog
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
7. X
Predicted Gross: $2.7 million
Box Office Results (March 18-20)
While there were newbies to view, The Batman ruled the roost while Jujutsu had a terrific premiere. Robert Pattinson’s debut as the DCEU Crusader took in $36.7 million, below my projection of $42.1 million. The three-week tally sits at an impressive $300 million.
Jujutsu blew away prognostications with $17.6 million. The FUNimation entry (which was already a hit overseas) easily toppled my meager $9.8 million take. Like other genre fare, its opening frame should represent a large portion of the overall domestic gross.
Uncharted was third with $7.8 million. I was right on target at $7.7 million. Total earnings are $125 million.
Horror pic X from A24 capitalized on solid reviews and came in fourth with a decent $4.4 million. That’s ahead of my $2.9 million estimate and it will hope for solid holds in coming weekends.
Dog rounded out the top five with $3.9 million, a touch below my $4.6 million prediction. It’s up to $54 million.
Spider-Man: No Way Home was sixth with $3.1 million (I said $3.7 million) and the massive haul is $797 million.
Finally, crime drama The Outfit with Mark Rylance started in 8th place with a muted $1.4 million. That is better than my $1 million forecast, however.
Sandra Bullock is fresh off widely seen Netflix titles like Bird Box and The Unforgivable. Channing Tatum’s Dog is currently performing well in multiplexes. The two team up on March 25th for The Lost City, a romantic comedy adventure drawing comparisons to 1984’s Romancing the Stone. Adam and Aaron Nee co-direct. The two leads aren’t the only big names in the cast as Brad Pitt (said to be a standout) and Daniel Radcliffe join the party alongside Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Bowen Yang.
It’s a rare title in this era where the release date was pushed up (from April). City screened at South by Southwest last weekend to pleasing results. Based on 12 reviews thus far, it’s at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.
This is exactly the type of escapist fare that should appeal widely to action fans and with a female demographic to boot. It could end The Batman‘s reign atop the charts. I do believe a gross north of $30 million is totally possible, but I’ll put it a bit below that mark. That should set up a showdown between this and the Caped Crusader for box office supremacy.
The Lost City opening weekend prediction: $28.4 million
The Caped Crusader should easily make it a three-peat at #1 while the Japanese animated fantasy Jujutsu Kaisen 0 and crime drama The Outfit with Mark Rylance debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Let’s begin with The Outfit because my mere $1 million estimate leaves it outside of the top five. As for Jujutsu, my projection should put it in either the two or three slot depending on how much Uncharted dips. It could be close.
The Batman‘s sophomore drop was a solid 50% and it stands to lose less in its third outing. Dog and Spider-Man: No Way Home should stay in the four and five positions.
Here’s how I see it breaking down:
1. The Batman
Predicted Gross: $42.1 million
2. Jujutsu Kaisen 0
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
3. Uncharted
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
4. Dog
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
5. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
Box Office Results (March 11-13)
As mentioned, The Batman continued to rock the charts in weekend #2 with a sturdy hold at $66.5 million. That’s higher than my $62.5 million take and the ten-day total is $239 million.
All holdovers experienced meager declines (between 10-17% for all). Uncharted remained in the runner-up spot with $9.2 million compared to my $6.7 million take. It stands at an impressive $113 million.
The surprise of the weekend was BTS Permission to Dance on Stage – Seoul. The live concert pic with the K-pop superstars played in theaters on Saturday night and amassed $6.8 million for third place. I didn’t have it on my radar.
Dog was fourth with $5.2 million, a tad ahead of my $4.4 million prediction for $47 million overall.
Spider-Man: No Way Home rounded out the top five with $4 million (I said $3.8 million) to bring the gargantuan haul to $792 million.
With no new wide releases this weekend (or the next one), The Batman should easily maintain its perch atop the charts. The question is how much it drops in the sophomore frame.
I’m projecting a dip in the low to mid 50s range which would give it around $60-$65 million. Other holdovers should maintain their current rankings in the top five with smallish declines considering the lack of competition.
Here’s how I see it breaking down:
1. The Batman
Predicted Gross: $62.5 million
2. Uncharted
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
3. Dog
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
4. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
5. Death on the Nile
Predicted Gross: $1.9 million
Box Office Results (March 4-6)
As was widely expected, The Batman easily achieved the second best opening of the COVID era (behind Spidey). Robert Pattinson’s introduction as the Caped Crusader took in $134 million. That’s not near as high as my $155.2 million projection but it’s still a solid haul. With an A- Cinemascore grade and little competition, it will rule the month of March until The Lost City arrives on March 25th.
Uncharted dropped to second with $11.1 million, a tad ahead of my $10.5 million forecast. Tom Holland’s almost sure to be newest franchise sits at a cool $100 million.
Channing Tatum’s Dog was third with $6.1 million (I said $6.4 million) for a three-week take of $40 million.
Spider-Man: No Way Home was fourth at $4.5 million compared to my $3.8 million prediction. The massive tally is $786 million.
Death on the Nile rounded out the top five with $2.7 million (I went with $2.5 million). Total is $37 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… same Bat time… same Bat channel…
It’s an eagerly awaited weekend at the box office as The Batman looks to have the second highest debut of the COVID era (behind only Spider-Man: No Way Home). The DCEU reboot with Robert Pattinson as the Caped Crusader is the only new release of this weekend (and the majority of March) and my detailed prediction post on it can be found here:
The range of possibility is wide (anywhere from $100 to $200 million depending on what you’re reading). I believe a gross just north of $150 million is most likely and my projection gives it the 20th largest domestic opening of all time.
Holdovers should experience heftier dips than this past weekend with Uncharted, Dog, Spider-Man, and Death on the Nile all sliding a spot. Here’s how I see it looking:
The leftovers didn’t spoil during the last frame of February while the two newcomers didn’t prove appetizing to moviegoers.
Uncharted ruled the charts for the second frame with $23 million, just ahead of my $21.8 million forecast for a two-week total of $83 million. Tom Holland, as I mentioned last week, has himself another promising franchise.
Channing Tatum’s Dog was a good boy in its sophomore outing with $10.1 million, outpacing my $8.4 million take. The two-week haul is $30 million.
Spider-Man: No Way Home was third with $5.8 million (I said $6 million) for a gargantuan take of $779 million.
Death on the Nile was fourth with $4.4 million, edging my $3.7 million prediction for a stalled $32 million overall.
Jackass Forever rounded out the top five with $3.1 million (I went with $2.8 million). It’s up to $52 million.
The fresh product managed respective 8th and 9th place starts. Studio 666, the horror comedy from the Foo Fighters, made only $1.5 million compared to my $2.1 million estimate. Cyrano with Peter Dinklage fared even worse with $1.3 million (I said $1.8 million).
Blogger’s Update (02/23): The theater count for Studio 666 has been announced and it’s higher than expected with just over 2300 screens. I’m upping my estimate a bit from $1.4 million to $2.1 million.
As February closes out and we await the massive release of The Batman to begin March, the top five may look the same this weekend. There are two new titles: the musical romantic drama Cyrano with Peter Dinklage and the Foo Fighters led horror comedy Studio 666. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I’ve got both of the newcomers posting debuts in the $2 million range- $1.8 million for Cyrano and $2.1 million for 666. That would put both outside of the top five.
As for the holdovers, the post President’s Day weekend usually sees rather large drops for those returnees. After as its terrific debut (more on that below), Uncharted could be headed for a slide in the 50 percent range with Dog in the low to mid 40s. Spider-Man: No Way Home, Death on the Nile, and Jackass Forever should hold their spots in the 3-5 positions.
So as the Caped Crusader readies for his closeup and a nine figure start (my box office prediction for it will be up tomorrow), here’s how I see things happening this weekend:
1. Uncharted
Predicted Gross: $21.8 million
2. Dog
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $6 million
4. Death on the Nile
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
5. Jackass Forever
Predicted Gross: $2.8 million
Box Office Results (February 18-21)
It’s Tom Holland’s world and we’re just living in it as his adventure flick Uncharted with Mark Wahlberg dominated the four-day holiday frame with a much bigger than anticipated $51.3 million. That blows away my forecast of $33.7 million and shows that its lead’s star power extends beyond him in the Spidey suit. Expect a sequel to be fast tracked.
Channing Tatum received a welcome return after a lengthy starring role absence as his directorial debut Dog took in $17.3 million, lapping my $13.3 million estimate. With an A- Cinemascore grade, this could perform well over subsequent weeks as Tatum has The Lost City lined up with Sandra Bullock a month from now.
That other franchise of Holland’s – Spider-Man: No Way Home – was third with $9.2 million as it swung past my $7.3 million take. At $772 million, it’s perched at #3 domestically all-time.
Death on the Nile stalled in its sophomore frame and fell from first to fourth with $7.7 million (I went higher at $9.8 million). The underwhelming two week total is $26 million.
Jackass Forever was fifth with $6 million (I said $5.7 million) for a three week tally of $47 million.
Finally, Jennifer Lopez’s rom com Marry Me was sixth in its second go-round with $4.3 million compared to my more generous $6 million prediction. It’s made $17 million.
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