Tag: Disney

December 20-22 Box Office Predictions

Paramount and Disney respectively look to dominate the pre-Yuletide box office chart as Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Mufasa: The Lion King invade theaters this weekend. The duo should easily lead a family friendly lineup as we enter the bustling holiday season. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 Box Office Prediction
Mufasa: The Lion King Box Office Prediction

As explained in said posts, Sonic may have the advantage of having a more front loaded start than its Mouse House competitor. My mid to high 70s forecast has the Sega threequel slightly outperforming its 2022 predecessor.

Mufasa is highly unlikely to match the near $200 million opening haul that 2019’s live-action The Lion King roared with. While I have it achieving low to mid 50s out of the gate, this sequel/prequel appears set up to play well throughout the season.

After three weeks atop the charts, Moana 2 will relinquish the crown. It may even fall to fourth as I have it dipping in the 50% range and Wicked sliding in the mid 40s.

I’ll give the five spot to Kraven the Hunter after a DOA arrival (more on that below), but it could be Gladiator II. I have Kraven plummeting in the upper 50s with Gladiator easing in the low 40s.

And with that, here’s my take on the top 6:

1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3

Predicted Gross: $77.6 million

2. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $51.3 million

3. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

4. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

5. Kraven the Hunter

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

6. Gladiator II

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (December 13-15)

November leftovers Moana 2 and Wicked continued to entertain kids and their parents. The former was 1st with $26.4 million, in line with my $27.5 million prediction. Disney’s sequel has amassed $337 million since its Thanksgiving bow.

Wicked took the runner-up spot at $22.6 million, in range with my $21.7 million call. The Broadway adaptation stands at $359 million after four weeks.

Another poorly reviewed Spider-Man Universe offering bombed with audiences as Kraven the Hunter was blanked in third with $11 million. I was more generous at $14.8 million. This comes months after Madame Web struggled to find its comic book fans. With a tepid C Cinemascore grade, crowds agreed with critics on its quality.

Gladiator II was fourth with $7.6 million. My estimate? $7.6 million! After four weeks, the tally stands at $145 million.

Finally, anime The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim did not pass muster with moviegoers in fifth with a paltry $4.5 million. I gave it more credit at $8 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Mufasa: The Lion King Box Office Prediction

Mufasa: The Lion King roars into theaters December 20th serving as a prequel and sequel to 2019’s live-action The Lion King. It was, of course, a remake of the 1994 Disney animated classic and it grossed a massive $1.6 billion worldwide. Barry Jenkins, the Oscar winning director of Moonlight, directs. The voiceover cast with several returning from five years ago includes Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Tiffany Boone, Mads Mikkelsen, Thandiwe Newton, Lennie James, Anika None Rose, Blue Ivy Carter, and her mom Beyoncé Knowles-Carter.

In the summer of ’19, King turned out to be a phenomenon with a $191 million opening and eventual $543 million domestic haul. Despite the heavy cash, many critics were harsh though it did earn an A Cinemascore. I’m still not sure audiences are clamoring for the prequel/sequel.

Don’t get me wrong. Plenty of parents and their kiddos will turn up. I’m just not expecting anywhere near the figures of what we saw a half decade ago. The Christmas holiday typically means even tentpole titles will start out slower than what they might in other seasons. Mufasa also must contend with Sonic the Hedgehog 3 which debuts directly against it and could be more front loaded.

I’m projecting the Lion premieres in second behind the Hedgehog with a low 50s gross and it’ll probably leg out solidly in the weeks to follow.

Mufasa: The Lion King opening weekend prediction: $51.3 million

For my Sonic the Hedgehog 3 prediction, click here:

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 Box Office Prediction

December 13-15 Box Office Predictions

Kraven the Hunter and anime The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim hope to get lucky at the box office this weekend while Moana 2 and Wicked look to maintain the 1-2 spots. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Kraven the Hunter Box Office Prediction
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim Box Office Prediction

Kraven arrives after multiple delays amid muted buzz. It will hope for numbers closer to the Venom franchise as opposed to Madame Web, but that could be wishful thinking. My low to mid teens forecast puts in third behind the fourth frame of Wicked.

As for Rings, it could exceed expectations simply due to brand recognition. While some anime fans could turn up in addition to Tolkien aficionados, I have it flopping in fourth barely ahead of Gladiator II.

Moana 2 should manage a third weekend in 1st with a mid 40s decline.

Here’s how I see the high five playing out:

1. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $27.5 million

2. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million

3. Kraven the Hunter

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

4. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Predicted Gross: $8 million

5. Gladiator II

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

Box Office Results (December 6-8)

The post Thanksgiving holiday weekend saw even bigger declines than I figured with the top four remaining unchanged. Disney’s Moana 2, after its record shattering debut, fell 63% to $51.2 million compared to my $55.1 million prediction. Nevertheless the Mouse Hunt smash sequel has amassed $299 million since its start.

Wicked was second with $36.4 million (down 55%) and I incorrectly had it holding steadier with $48 million. In three weeks, the Golden Globe nominated Best Musical or Comedy has taken off with an astounding $322 million in three weeks.

Gladiator II was third with $12.5 million, again not matching my loftier $14.8 million projection. Ridley Scott’s follow-up brought its three-week tally to $132 million.

Red One held the four spot at $7 million (I said $7.6 million). The holiday offering continues to inch toward nine digits with $85 million in four weeks.

Finally, epic Indian action fest Pushpa 2: The Rule was fifth with $4.8 million from Friday to Sunday. That didn’t match my $5.9 million expectation though it has made $9.3 million since being unveiled on Wednesday.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 6-8 Box Office Predictions

The post Thanksgiving frame, as it normally is, should be ruled by leftovers as Indian action fest Pushpa 2: The Rule looks to be the only newcomer in the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Pushpa 2: The Rule Box Office Prediction

Moana 2 decimated all Turkey Day weekend records (more on that below). The Mouse House sequel might see a drop in the high 50s to low 60s range and that would still be good for $50M+ in its sophomore outing.

It should manage to edge phenomenon Wicked in its third go-round. However, if the Broadway adaptation only dips 40% or below, it could leapfrog Moana for the #1 spot. I have it easing in the low to mid 40s.

Gladiator II and Red One should stay in 3rd and 4th with Pushpa 2 in the mid singe digits for the five spot.

Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $55.1 million

2. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $48 million

3. Gladiator II

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

4. Red One

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Pushpa 2: The Rule

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (November 29-December 1)

Disney’s Frozen II went into Thanksgiving 2024 with the best ever five-day take over the holiday. Moana 2 topped it with $100 million to spare! The follow-up to 2016’s original surpassed expectations with $139.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $225.4 million since its Wednesday bow. That crushes my respective takes of $92.1 million and $130.3 million. As anticipated, it did propel the box office to its highest Thanksgiving earnings of all time.

Wicked kept bringing in crowds in second with $81.1 million, zooming past my $71.6 million forecast. Already the largest grossing Broadway adaptation in history, the two-week tally is $263 million.

Gladiator II was third with $31 million, slashing beyond my $27.5 million prediction. The Ridley Scott sequel to his Best Picture winner stands at $111 million after two outings.

Fourth place was Red One, which declined only 4% for $12.7 million. I was less charitable at $9.4 million and the three-week total is $75 million.

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever rounded out the top five at $3.2 million. I incorrectly had it outside of the high five and it has made $31 million after four weeks.

Venom: The Last Dance, which I had in 5th, was 7th with $2.2 million (I said $2.9 million) for $137 million in six weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Moana 2

Moana 2, out this Thanksgiving weekend, was originally conceived as a Disney+ limited series before morphing into a proper sequel with a theatrical release. Now it’s widely expected to set the all-time record Turkey Day frame opening. David Derrick Jr., Jason Hand, and Dana Ledoux Miller direct with Auli’i Cravalho, Dwayne Johnson, Temuera Morrison, Nicole Scherzinger, Rachel House, and Alan Tudyk returning for voiceover work. Khaleesi Lambert-Tsuda, Rose Matafeo, and David Fane are among new cast lending behind the mic talents.

In 2016, Moana set the Friday to Sunday premiere record over Thanksgiving which still stands today… for the moment. The animated adventure also picked up two Oscar nominations in Animated Feature (where it lost to fellow Disney blockbuster Zootopia) and the Original Song “How Far I’ll Go”. That track came up short to “City of Stars” from La La Land.

The Mouse Factory waited until the last minute to lift the review embargo off of the sequel. It has a so-so 72% on Rotten Tomatoes (its predecessor has 95%) and 57 on Metacritic (Moana landed 81). That reaction likely won’t nab it one of the five slots in Animated Feature (though Disney should score a spot with Inside Out 2). As for songs, Lin-Manuel Miranda was involved in the tunes eight years ago. Without his involvement, don’t expect Moana 2‘s ditties to resonate with Academy voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

November 29-December 1 Box Office Predictions

Disney seeks to break its own all-time biggest Thanksgiving weekend record when Moana 2 sails into multiplexes this Wednesday. It’s the sole wide release over the holiday and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Moana 2 Box Office Prediction

It could be close, but I’m projecting the sequel to 2016’s animated tale will exceed Frozen II‘s current largest three-day and five-day ($85.9 million and $125 million) takes over the Turkey Day frame. The follow-up should easily top the Thanksgiving Friday to Sunday mark for a new picture which is currently held by… Moana at $56 million.

Leftovers will populate the rest of the top 5 with Wicked posting a second place showing after its third best premiere of 2024 (more on that below). With an A Cinemascore grade, the decline may only be in the mid 30s or so.

Gladiator II will drop a notch to third after a start on the lower end of its anticipated range. Ridley Scott’s long-in-the-works sequel could lose close to half its debut audience.

Red One and Venom: The Last Dance should fill out the rest of the high five and here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $92.1 million (Friday to Sunday); $130.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $71.6 million

3. Gladiator II

Predicted Gross: $27.5 million

4. Red One

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. Venom: The Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (November 22-24)

Two things can be true as “Glicked” (Wicked and Gladiator II releasing on the same day) gave a needed jolt to the box office while each came in at the lower end of most projections. The critically acclaimed Wicked, based on the hugely popular play, made off with $112.5 million. As mentioned, it’s the third best haul in 2024 behind Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2. Yet it didn’t match my $134.6 million forecast. With magical word-of-mouth, this seems destined to perform well throughout the season.

Gladiator II was runner-up with $55 million and that didn’t measure up to my $69.8 million call. The so-so Cinemascore grade could mean its weekend to weekend declines could be heftier than I might’ve originally projected.

Red One slid to third at $13.2 million compared to my $14.9 million prediction. The holiday action comedy has taken in $52 million in two weeks which isn’t overly impressive considering the reported $250 million price tag.

Newcomer Bonhoeffer from Angel Studios was the only newcomer of the trio that opened above my expectations with $5 million. I said $4 million.

Venom: The Last Dance rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.6 million) for $133 million in five weeks.

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever was sixth with $3.4 million, ahead of my $2.7 million projection for $25 million in three weeks. Behind it in seventh was Heretic with $2.2 million (I went with $2.5 million) for $24 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Moana 2 Box Office Prediction

Disney looks to smash its own Thanksgiving opening records when Moana 2 lands in theaters on Wednesday, November 27th. The sequel to 2016’s musical adventure is directed by David Derrick Jr., Jason Hand, and Dana Ledoux Miller. Auli’i Cravalho, Dwayne Johnson, Temuera Morrison, Nicole Scherzinger, Rachel House, and Alan Tudyk reprise their voiceover work. Klaheesi Lambert-Tsuda, Rose Matafeo, and David Fane are new faces behind the mic.

Eight Turkey years ago, Moana took in $248 million domestically. It set the all-time Friday to Sunday opening Thanksgiving frame high mark with $56.6 million and that record still stands. Ralph Breaks the Internet from the Mouse Factory holds the five-day best of premiere at $84.7 million (just edging Moana‘s $82 million). Moana 2 seems poised to rather easily surpass those figures.

The follow-up is additionally looking to top Frozen II‘s largest three and five-day grosses for any picture over the holiday. That would be $85.9 million and $125 million, respectively. I don’t think that’s a guarantee, but part 1 is well-regarded enough that I think it gets there with some room to spare.

Moana 2 opening weekend prediction: $92.1 million (Friday to Sunday); $130.3 million (Wednesday to Monday)

Oscar Predictions: The Wild Robot

The 74th Academy Awards was the first year where Best Animated Feature was presented and DreamWorks Animation took that initial prize with Shrek. The studio has yet to win the race again as Disney has mostly dominated it. They are hoping for their second statue at the 97th ceremony courtesy of The Wild Robot.

Having premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its September 27th domestic debut, Chris Sanders (co-director of How to Train Your Dragon and The Croods) made the sci-fi fantasy based on Peter Brown’s series of novels. Voiceover work comes from Lupita Nyong’o, Pedro Pascal, Kit Connor, Bill Nighy, Stephanie Hsu, Mark Hamill, Catherine O’Hara, and Ving Rhames.

Early word-of-mouth from our neighbor to the north is welcoming. With an 83% Metacritic score and no tomatoes at press time, The Wild Robot is a serious contender not only for a nomination (which appears to be a foregone conclusion), but a victory.

In order to do that, it will still need to surpass Inside Out 2 from you know who. In my view, that is not a foregone conclusion. Yet DreamWorks probably has its best shot since that green ogre. Beyond Animated Feature, Robot‘s Original Score from Kris Bowers is being heralded. There’s also a song from Maren Morris titled “Kiss the Sky” that looks to make that quintet. Either are possible as those competitions are just starting to take shape. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Would The Supremes Have Gotten Oscar Love?

The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat hopes to find love from home viewers in its Hulu debut this weekend. The fact that it’s not in theaters came as an unexpected announcement from Searchlight Pictures (under the Disney umbrella) a few weeks back. Based on a 2013 novel from Edward Kelsey Moore, the decades spanning drama features Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Sanaa Lathan, and Uzo Aduba as lifelong friends. Costars include Mekhi Phifer, Julian McMahon, Vondie Curtis-Hall, and Russell Hornsby. Tina Mabry directs.

On paper, The Supremes looks like the type of crowdpleaser that might have appealed to awards voters. However, Searchlight went the streaming route. The strategy makes more sense as of the past few days. Earl’s sports a so-so 68% Rotten Tomatoes score at press time. Critics are kind to the performances of Ellis-Taylor (a Supporting Actress nominee for King Richard in 2021), Lathan, and Aduba (Emmy winner for Orange is the New Black).

Yet the reviews likely would have prevented this from generating much Oscar chatter. Searchlight also has other contenders that they’ll focus on. This includes the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown with Timothée Chalamet, Nightbitch with a potential Academy bait turn from Amy Adams, and A Real Pain which has already received Supporting Actor talk for Kieran Culkin.

If anyone had a shot from Supremes, it would be Ellis-Taylor. She would appear to have another bite at the apple with the upcoming Nickel Boys (also based on a bestseller) in the supporting field. As I always say, my Oscar Prediction posts will continue. They will not continue with this picture, per Searchlight.

Alien: Romulus Box Office Prediction

Fede Álvarez, best known for his Evil Dead remake and Don’t Breathe, takes over a classic 45-year-old franchise when Alien: Romulus touches down on August 16th. Set between the events of Alien and Aliens, the seventh entry in the series (not counting those two battles with Predator) features Civil War‘s Cailee Spaeny, David Jonsson, Archie Renaux, Isabela Merced, and Spike Fearn.

Originally conceived as a Hulu streaming release, 20th Century Studios rethought their strategy to allow a summer theatrical bow. This is the first Alien feature in seven years since Ridley Scott’s Alien: Covenant and the first since Disney acquired the property.

If Romulus matched the $36 million that Covenant started off with, that should be considered a win. I say that because the predecessor plummeted after its first weekend and grossed an underwhelming $74 million overall domestically.

I’ll project that this gets a bit under that starting Covenant figure as it’ll hope to have sturdier legs in subsequent weekends.

Alien: Romulus opening weekend prediction: $35.2 million

For my Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure prediction, click here:

Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure Box Office Prediction