Tag: Disney

Lilo & Stitch Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (05/21/25): I am upping my Lilo & Stitch estimate considerably from $118.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $143.7 million from Friday to Monday to $159.7 million for the three-day and $196.6 million for the four-day. That would easily be a new Memorial Day weekend record.

23 summers ago, Disney’s animated Lilo & Stitch narrowly opened in second to Minority Report with Tom Cruise. This Memorial Day weekend, the Mouse House’s live-action (and also animated) remake will attempt to outpace Cruise’s Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. That’s a mission it should achieve with room to spare.

Dean Fleischer Camp, maker of the acclaimed Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, is behind the camera. Chris Sanders, who wrote and directed the 2002 original, still provides the voice of Stitch with Maia Keoloha as Lilo. The supporting cast includes Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Billy Magnussen, Hannah Waddingham, Courtney B. Vance, Zach Galifianakis, Tia Carrere, Amy Hill, and Jason Scott Lee.

Expectations are high for a project that once was anticipated to be a Disney+ streaming premiere. Tracking suggests a nine digit performance over the holiday frame. The studio is no stranger to Memorial Day outputs and that includes these remakes. In 2019, Aladdin took in $91 million from Friday to Sunday and $116 million when factoring in Monday. Two years ago, The Little Mermaid made $95 million for the three-day and $118 million over four.

Lilo took in $273 million worldwide for its run nearly a quarter century ago and spawned direct-to-video sequels. A nostalgia factor and a dearth of competition for family audiences (as A Minecraft Movie winds down) could mean an even stronger opening than the aforementioned titles. I’ll say it manages to get close to $120 million from Friday to Sunday and over $140 million adding Monday. That would give it the second all-time Memorial weekend behind Top Gun: Maverick (more Cruise comparisons!) and just ahead of Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men’s Chest.

Lilo & Stitch opening weekend prediction: $159.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $196.6 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning prediction, click here:

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning Box Office Prediction

For my The Last Rodeo prediction, click here:

The Last Rodeo Box Office Prediction

For my Friendship prediction, click here:

Friendship Box Office Prediction

May 9-11 Box Office Predictions

The movie formerly known as Thunderbolts* looks to rule the box office once again with Sinners firmly in the runner-up position in this second May frame. That’s because there’s no new wide releases to challenge them and the top five should look similar to the month’s first weekend.

The MCU’s 36th entry Thunderbolts* (we’ll get to that asterisk) opened similarly to 2021 franchise titles Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75 million) and Eternals ($71 million). Shang dropped in the mid-50s in its sophomore outing while Eternals fell a steeper 62%. With solid word-of-mouth and scant competition, a low to mid 50s decline is where I see this ending up.

Sinners looks to continue its meager drops and should see mid-20s in its fourth go-round while A Minecraft Movie, The Accountant 2, and Until Dawn should all hold at 3-5.

Back to that asterisk. So… (spoiler alert?… but not really) Disney/Marvel revealed today that Thunderbolts* is actually titled The New Avengers and it is listed that way on official materials. This all makes sense after you’ve seen it. Therefore I will honor the studio’s wishes and call it that moving forward.

Here’s how I see the high 5 shaking out:

1. The New Avengers

Predicted Gross: $33.8 million

2. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $24 million

3. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

5. Until Dawn

Predicted Gross: $2.2 million

Box Office Results (May 2-4)

Thund…,errr, The New Avengers came in at the lower end of its anticipated range with $74.3 million, falling shy of my $79.3 million call. It’s not a bad result for the superhero tale, but it is several million short of what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February and nowhere near the earnings of previous sagas with the word Avengers in it.

Sinners hauled in another $33.1 million, in line with my $34 million forecast. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick has amassed $179 million in three weeks.

A Minecraft Movie was third with $13.7 million, slightly topping my $12.5 million projection. The Warner Bros smash is just under $400 million at $398 million after four weeks.

The Accountant 2 saw its numbers plummet 61% in weekend #2 with $9.4 million. That’s below my more generous $12.8 million prediction. The ten-day tally is $41 million.

Video game based horror pic Until Dawn rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.4 million) for $14 million in its two weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 2-4 Box Office Predictions

The summer 2025 box office season gets underway with Marvel’s Thunderbolts*. The 36th franchise entry looks to make noise atop the charts and you peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Thunderbolts* Box Office Prediction

With solid early buzz, my high 70s projection gives it about $10 million less than what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February. The debut would put it in line with general expectations as it’ll hope to leg out impressively throughout May.

Sinners was #1 once again for a second frame following an astonishing hold (more on that below). The MCU competition should mean a heftier slide than the sophomore outing, but I still have it only easing around 25%. That would mean a third weekend north of $30 million.

Third place could be a close contest between holdovers The Accountant 2 and A Minecraft Movie. I have the former dropping close to 50% with Minecraft experiencing a mid 40s decline.

Fifth place should belong to Until Dawn with around a high 50s to 60% plummet (typical for the horror genre).

Here’s how I have that high five playing out:

1. Thunderbolts*

Predicted Gross: $79.3 million

2. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $34 million

3. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

4. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

5. Until Dawn

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (April 25-27)

Multiplexes were packed as four features topped $20 million in sales with Sinners shocking prognosticators with a mere 5% drop. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick with Michael B. Jordan sucked up another $45.7 million, blasting past my $33.1 million prediction. In ten days, the Oscar contender stands at $123 million with $300 million domestic potentially in its sights.

The rerelease of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith for its 20th anniversary landed one of the best reissue premieres of all time with $25.4 million in a surprise second That edges past my $22.6 million call. The third feature (and best reviewed) of the second trilogy returned to theaters for a one-week engagement (that’s why you don’t see it reflected in my projections for next weekend). A nostalgia factor clearly helped Sith as it almost tripled what The Phantom Menace‘s rerelease in February 2024 earned for its start. The $25 million in extra coin for Sith pushed the total domestic haul to $405 million over two decades.

The highest grossing truly new film was The Accountant 2 as the Ben Affleck action sequel was third with $24.5 million. I was right on target at $24.3 million, but I thought it would be #2. Its opening gross is right in line with the 2016 original.

A Minecraft Movie was fourth in weekend #4 with $22.7 million (I said $21.4 million) as the Warner Bros video game adaptation has collected $379 million.

New horror pic Until Dawn (also based on a video game) rounded out the top five with $8 million. The unimpressive figure is on pace with my $7.8 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith Re-Release Box Office Prediction

Disney looks to squeeze more bucks out of a blue chip franchise with the 20th anniversary re-release of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith. It is the culmination of the oft criticized second trilogy in the vaunted franchise and this is generally considered the strongest of the three. Marking the last picture directed by series creator George Lucas, this one-week engagement could manage to bring the faithful and more out.

Last May, Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace was put back into multiplexes for its 25th anniversary. Results were better than anticipated with an $8.7 million debut. The second installment – Attack of the Clones – is not being granted a theatrical comeback. Pre-sales for Sith are quite encouraging and suggest this could double the Phantom figures. I’ll predict this gets past $20 million for what could be anywhere from a second to fourth place premiere.

Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith opening weekend prediction: $22.6 million

For my The Accountant 2 prediction, click here:

The Accountant 2 Box Office Prediction

For my Until Dawn prediction, click here:

Until Dawn Box Office Prediction

April 11-13 Box Office Predictions

After a record breaking start, A Minecraft Movie should easily repeat in first position at the box office. Yet there’s a handful of newcomers jockeying for slots 2-6. We have the faith-based animated tale The King of Kings, Rami Malek’s spy thriller The Amateur, Blumhouse thriller Drop, Alex Garland’s Iraqi Freedom drama Warfare, and episodes 6-8 of the Christian show The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:

The King of Kings Box Office Prediction
The Amateur Box Office Prediction
Drop Box Office Prediction
Warfare Box Office Prediction
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 Box Office Prediction

Based on the best selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie achieved the best opening for a picture based on a video game (more on that below). I’m estimating a sophomore drop between 50-55% and that should put it somewhere in the mid 70s-low 80s.

A report surfaced today that The King of Kings has already taken in approximately $8 million in pre-sales. That’s surprising, but Angel Studios has certainly exceeded projections before via Sound of Freedom. A low 20s performance would easily put it in the runner-up spot.

After that it gets tricky. The Amateur, Warfare, and Drop could all open similarly in the $7-11 million range. I’ve got them placing in the order of the previous sentence with The Chosen in sixth.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $77.9 million

2. The King of Kings

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million

3. The Amateur

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million

4. Warfare

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

5. Drop

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

6. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (April 4-6)

The box office got a much needed jolt as A Minecraft Movie kicked off well above forecasts. With $162.7 million, it is 2025’s largest start thus far and, as mentioned, the highest video game adapted feature in history. The previous record was held by 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie with $146 million. I was way off with a prediction of only $92.5 million. With a less than expected B+ Cinemascore, it should fall further than the 37% that Mario dropped in its second weekend. Yet any way you cut it, this is a fantastic result for Warner Bros.

A Working Man with Jason Statham slid to second with $7.3 million, slightly under my $8 million call. The action thriller has made $27 million after ten days.

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 placed third with $6.9 million, not quite matching my $7.8 million estimate. Episodes 3-5 of the popular program made a little more than half of the nearly $12 million achieved by Part 1. Per above, diminishing returns should continue with Part 3.

Disney dud Snow White was fourth with $5.9 million (I said $6.7 million). The troubling three-week tally is $77 million.

Horror flick The Woman in the Yard was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the high five. With $4.5 million, the two-week total is $16 million.

I had Part 1 of the The Chosen in fifth with $5.2 million, but it plummeted 84% to seventh with $1.8 million for $17 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 4-6 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (04/03): On the eve of its premiere, a very significant update as Minecraft tracking is going through the roof. I’m upping my projection from $57.5 million to a whopping $92.5 million (!)

A Minecraft Movie starring Jason Momoa and Jack Black looks to dominate the charts while The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 hopes to capture a hefty portion of the audience that witnessed Part 1 this past weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

A Minecraft Movie Box Office Prediction
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 Box Office Prediction

Minecraft, based on the best selling video game of all time, should outgross the rest of the top five combined. However, that’s with a caveat. My mid to high 50s estimate isn’t exactly a robust number for this IP and would be considered a slight disappointment.

The rest of the top 5 is a little tricky. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 encompasses episodes 3-5 of the popular faith-based TV show. Part 1 easily outpaced expectations (more on that below). The follow-up shows should see diminishing returns, but it could still be good enough for second or third place. According to the info I’ve seen, Part 1 should still be in multiplexes and it might remain in the top five.

As for holdovers, Jason Statham’s A Working Man clocked a surprising #1 start and it may lose around half its audience while Disney’s dud Snow White may lose slightly more.

Here’s how I have the chart playing out:

1. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $92.5 million

2. A Working Man

Predicted Gross: $8 million

3. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

4. Snow White

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (March 28-30)

In an upset, A Working Man capitalized on the ho-hum Snow White reception and was first with $15.5 million. The action thriller rose above my $13.9 million prediction and is another decent hit for Mr. Statham.

Disney’s Snow White live-action retelling tumbled 66% to $14.3 million, below my $16.4 million projection. The ten-day take is $66 million as it tries to reach $100 million domestically.

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1, as mentioned, easily rose above forecasts in third with $11.7 million. That soars past my $6.4 million call and is quite a heavenly result for the Fathom Events distributed property.

Horror flick The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler debuted in fourth with $9.3 million, surpassing my $6.7 million estimate. With a C- Cinemascore, the sophomore drop should be substantial. Lucky for it, the budget is reportedly a meager $12 million.

The biggest disappointment of the week besides Snow‘s fall was Death of a Unicorn. In fifth place, the horror comedy with Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega took in just $5.7 million compared to my $8.8 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 28-30 Box Office Predictions

A quartet of newcomers hope to populate spots 2-5 this weekend with Snow White looking to cling to first place after a muted debut. We have the Jason Statham action pic A Working Man, Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega in the horror comedy Death of a Unicorn, more serious scary movie The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler, and the first two episodes of the popular faith-based program The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

A Working Man Box Office Prediction
Death of a Unicorn Box Office Prediction
The Woman in the Yard Box Office Prediction
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 Box Office Prediction

Snow White had the lowest modern-day premiere for any of the Mouse House live-action adaptations (more on that below). To add insult to injury, its B+ Cinemascore grade is also the worst of the sub genre. The similarly performing Dumbo from 2019 plummeted 60% in its sophomore frame. I would expect a similar result for Snow White and that should mean a mid-teens gross.

That might keep it in first place as I have A Working Man in the low teens for a runner-up showing (it has an outside shot of being #1). I am placing Unicorn just below $10 million with Yard and Chosen both in the mid single digits. Considering the sad state of affairs at multiplexes financially, that should mean 80% of the high 5 is fresh product.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Snow White

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

2. A Working Man

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

3. Death of a Unicorn

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

4. The Woman in the Yard

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (March 21-23)

Pick your cliched headline – it was a sleepy opening… it was a ho-hum debut…

They apply to Snow White which, as mentioned, experienced the weakest unveiling of any Disney live-action rendering at $42.2 million. That’s below my $49.6 million take and it’s a pretty impossible spin job for its studio to attempt. Some articles have correctly pointed out that Mufasa: The Lion King premiered to lower numbers but legged out nicely. The difference is that Mufasa rolled out over the holidays where drop-offs are insignificant. I don’t expect that to be the case here.

As I suspected, slots 2-6 were separated by just over a million bucks. That made it tricky to know where the pics would land. Black Bag stayed in second place with $4.2 million, on target with my $4 million prediction. Steven Soderbergh’s spy tale sits at $14 million after ten days.

Captain America: Brave New World was third with $4 million, in line with my $4.1 million call. The MCU entry is nearing $200 million with $192 million in the bank after six weeks.

Novocaine slid from 1st to 4th with $3.6 million, a tad below my $4.1 million projection. The two-week take is $15 million.

Mickey 17 rounded out the top five with $3.6 million. My estimate? $3.6 million! The three-week earnings are an underwhelming $40 million.

Finally, critically panned Robert De Niro (and Robert De Niro) Mob saga The Alto Knights was flat in sixth with $3.1 million (I said $3.7 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 21-23 Box Office Predictions

Hollywood hopes that Disney’s live-action remake of Snow White can wake up a sleepy box office this weekend while The Alto Knights with a double dose of Robert De Niro also debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Snow White Box Office Prediction
The Alto Knights Box Office Prediction

With Rachel Zegler in the title role and Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen, there’s no doubt Snow White will dwarf all competitors. The question is by how much. A best case scenario might be around $60 million though it could bottom out in the mid to high 30s. I’m giving it high 40s. While that’s nothing to sneeze at, it’s not that happy a result for the Mouse House considering most of their other live-action retellings far outpaced that figure.

Mr. De Niro portrays two real-life gangsters in the period piece Knights. Warner Bros hasn’t given it much of a marketing push. My lower to mid single digits forecast could put it anywhere from second to sixth.

Holdovers Novocaine (the current champ), Black Bag, Captain America: Brave New World, and Mickey 17 should all generate similar earnings. In fact, I have #2 and #6 separated by only half a million bucks. That’s with Novocaine dwindling just over 50% and Black Bag falling in the high 40s in its sophomore frame. Captain America is likely to experience the smallest decline.

Here’s how I have the top 6 playing out:

1. Snow White

Predicted Gross: $49.6 million

2. Novocaine

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

3. Captain America: Brave New World

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

4. Black Bag

Predicted Gross: $4 million

5. The Alto Knights

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

6. Mickey 17

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (March 14-16)

It was a painful weekend in multiplexes as no feature topped $10 million. Novocaine with Jack Quaid had muted bragging rights in 1st with $8.8 million. Failing to match my $9.8 million prediction, look for this to fade quickly with a meh B Cinemascore.

Also sporting a B Cinemascore was Steven Soderbergh’s Black Bag with Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender. The spy thriller was second with $7.6 million, just over my $7.3 million projection.

Bong Joon-ho’s Mickey 17 suffered a considerable 61% drop and was third with $7.4 million. I was a tad more generous to the Robert Pattinson sci-fi satire at $8.1 million. The two-week tally is an unimpressive $33 million.

Captain America: Brave New World was fourth at $5.6 million (I said $5.7 million) for a five-week total of $185 million and $200 million domestic looking achievable.

The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie rounded out the top five with a mere $3.1 million compared to my $3.8 million estimate for the animated offering.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Snow White Box Office Prediction

Disney looks to Snow White to earn a lot of green when it premieres March 21st. A live-action adaptation of the nearly 90-year-old first animated feature from the studio, Marc Webb directs with Rachel Zegler in the title role and Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. The supporting cast includes Andrew Burnap, Ansu Kabia, Hadley Fraser, and Lorena Andrea.

The Mouse House has pumping out these remakes with regularity in the past decade. Some have gotten off to sizzling starts including The Jungle Book ($103 million), Beauty and the Beast ($174 million), Aladdin ($91 million), The Lion King ($191 million), and The Little Mermaid ($95 million). Cinderella from 2015 premiered to $67 million.

Snow White would be fortunate to hit any of those numbers and it could approach Cinderella territory. The slipper half empty narrative is something closer to Dumbo‘s sleepier opening from 2019 at $46 million. I’ll say it gets beyond that, but not by much.

Snow White opening weekend prediction: $49.6 million

For my The Alto Knights prediction, click here:

The Alto Knights Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Captain America: Brave New World

Of the three previous Marvel Cinematic Universe monikered Captain America pics, there is just one Oscar nomination among them. That would be middle feature The Winter Soldier from 2014 which was up in Visual Effects and lost to Interstellar.

This Friday marks the 4th feature in the sub-franchise and 35th overall MCU title with Captain America: Brave New World. Anthony Mackie takes on the title role for the first time in the Julius Onah directed adventure. Danny Ramirez, Shira Haas, Carl Lumbly, Xosha Roquemore, Jóhannes Haukur Jóhannesson, Giancarlo Esposito, Tim Blake Nelson, and Harrison Ford costar.

Not all reviews are subpar but a lot of them are breaking bad. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 51% with Metacritic at 43. That’s certainly on the lower rung of the record setting franchise’s numbers and by far the worst of the America quartet (which is said to be more of a sequel to 2008’s The Incredible Hulk).

Most MCU fare is only Academy competitive in Visual Effects. Beginning with 2008’s Iron Man, they’re 0 for 14 in that race. Some critics are complaining that World has the looks of a direct to Disney+ effort. I wouldn’t expect this to be the 15th hopeful for the visuals. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…