Disney has owned the Thanksgiving holiday in recent years and that looks to continue when Zootopia 2 arrives November 26th. Jared Bush and Byron Howard are back directing the sequel to the 2016 blockbuster that took home Best Animated Feature at the Oscars. Returning voices include Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Idris Elba, and Shakira. New faces behind the mics are Ke Huy Quan, Fortune Feimster, Andy Samberg, David Strathairn, Patrick Warburton, Quinta Brunson, Roman Reigns, and CM Punk.
Last year, the Mouse House smashed the Thanksgiving box office record with Moana 2. That follow-up took in $139 million from Friday to Sunday with $225 million when counting Wednesday and Turkey Day. The previous highest three-day opening was the original Moana (also from 2016) at $56 million.
Zootopia 2 should fall between the Moana‘s in the record books. In a best case scenario, it could threaten part 2. In March 2016, the original exceeded expectations with a $75 million start on its way to $341 million overall domestically. This is widely anticipated to build on that with room to spare.
I’ll project a Friday to Sunday gross between $110 to $115 million and a five-day topping $180 million.
Zootopia 2 opening weekend prediction: $112.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $184.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
The animated futuristic fantasy Arco is out in limited fashion domestically this weekend for an Oscar qualifying run before a nationwide expansion early next year. From filmmaker Ugo Bienvenu, the Neon title premiered at Cannes in May with a voice cast including Margot Ringard Oldra, Oscar Tresanini, Swann Arlaud, and Alma Jodorowsky. The English dub’s faces behind the mic include Romy Fay, Juliano Krue Valdi, Will Ferrell, America Ferrera, Mark Ruffalo, Andy Samberg, and Natalie Portman (who also produces).
Critics have been consistently complimentary with 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 75 Metacritic. Those numbers should be enough for this to make the Best Animated Feature quintet where I’ve had it predicted for some time. A win narrative is trickier as it is probably behind cultural phenomenon KPop Demon Hunters and the forthcoming Zootopia 2 (which has encouraging WOM and the Disney marketing muscle). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
An animated tale based on Roald Dahl’s 45-year-old novel, The Twits is out on Netflix and its marks the solo directorial debut of Phil Johnston after co-directing Disney’s Ralph Breaks the Internet. The voice cast includes Margo Martindale, Johnny Vegas, Natalie Portman, Emilia Clarke, Maitreyi Ramakrishnan, Jason Mantozoukas, Timothy Simons, Alan Tudyk, and Nicole Byer.
The source material earned high praise for the author while the film adaptation has not. Rotten Tomatoes is at 53% with a 46 on Metacritic. It is fair to assume this won’t be getting the Animated Feature nomination that went to 2009’s Dahl based Fantastic Mr. Fox. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Horror sequel Black Phone 2 should easily receive the most multiplex views this weekend as Aziz Ansari’s directorial debut Good Fortune with Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves hopes to earn its title. We also have the expansion of Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt starring Julia Roberts. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be accessed here:
My projection for Phone gives it a couple million more than the 2022 original and grabbing a gross in the mid 20s range. I will note that it has the potential to over perform given that the genre often does. Hopefully something can wake up this sleepy October box office.
The runner-up position could certainly be held by Good Fortune if it manages $10 million plus. However, I’m going under that figure and putting it in third.
As for Hunt, it is slated for around 1200 venues and a lower to mid single digits figure might leave it just outside the top five.
Tron: Ares got off to an unimpressive start (more on that below) and I suspect a sophomore weekend plummet around 70% could be in store. Holdovers One Battle After Another and Roofman may round out the high 5 and here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Black Phone 2
Predicted Gross: $25.5 million
2. Tron: Ares
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
3. Good Fortune
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million
4. One Battle After Another
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
5. Roofman
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
6. After the Hunt
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
Box Office Results (October 10-12)
Disney had no trouble getting Tron: Ares to first place, but the Mouse House hardly has bragging rights. The third flick in the franchise that began in 1982 stumbled with $33.2 million compared to my $42.6 million call. That’s a hugely disappointing result considering the reported $180 million budget. Ares fell $10 million under the $43 million that predecessor Tron: Legacy managed 15 years ago and that’s not even adjusted for inflation.
Roofman with Channing Tatum was runner-up with $8.1 million as the dramedy opened in line with general expectations and over my $5.8 million projection. It is still an underwhelming number though it’ll hope to leg out respectably during the month.
One Battle After Another was third with $6.8 million, in line with my $6.4 million prediction. The Oscar hopeful has taken in $54 million after three weeks.
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The $3.4 million gross gave it $26 million in three weeks of play.
The Conjuring: Last Rites rounded out the top five at $3.1 million. My guesstimate? $3.1 million! The horror sequel has amassed $172 million in five weeks.
I didn’t do an official prediction for the inspirational biographical drama Soul on Fire. I did speculate it could make around $3 million. It took in $2.8 million for sixth.
The Smashing Machine had a free fall in 8th with $1.7 million. This represents a 69% tumble for the former awards hopeful. I was more generous at $2.6 million and its ten-day tally is a mere $9 million.
Finally, Kiss of the Spider Woman with Jennifer Lopez premiered in lowly 12th place. The $891k figure is well under my $2.2 million take. Like Machine, the bad earnings don’t bode well for any Oscar attention.
Out Friday, sci-fi action tale Tron: Ares is the third feature in the Disney franchise that began all the way back in 1982 and continued with a 2010 follow-up. Joachim Rønning handles directorial duties (taking over from Joseph Kosinksi) with Jared Leto headlining and Jeff Bridges reprising his role from the predecessors. The supporting cast includes Greta Lee, Evan Peters, Jodie Turner-Smith, Hasan Minhaj, Arturo Castro and Gillian Anderson.
The so-so reviews that greeted it today are on par with what Legacy received 15 years ago. Ares stands at 55% on Rotten Tomatoes and 50 at Metacritic while Legacy had respective numbers of 51% and 49. Neither the original Tron or the sequel managed to get a Visual Effects nod where a mention for Ares would seem most feasible. The first Tron did get a Sound nom (losing to E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial).
Ares could contend (and only contend) in those two races. However, competition from sequels alone is significant. Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good should play in both of them. The Fantastic Four: First Steps is viable in VE and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning could factor into each. I wouldn’t write Ares off, but history isn’t on its side. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Arriving 15 years after a sequel that followed the original by 28 years, Tron: Ares hits theaters October 10th. Disney’s sci-fi action threequel has Joachim Rønning taking over directorial duties from Joseph Kosinski, who made 2010’s Tron: Legacy before helming Top Gun: Maverick and F1. Jared Leto, Greta Lee, Evan Peters, Jodie Turner-Smith, Hasan Minhaj, Arturo Castro, Gillian Anderson and Jeff Bridges (reprising his role from the first two) star.
The franchise certainly has its followers though it’s fair to wonder if younger viewers will turn out. They might not be as familiar with the source material from 2010 (let alone 1982). Legacy performed decently with a $44 million opening and $172 eventual domestic gross. It made just under $400 million worldwide. Ares would be fortunate to replicate that and projections have it starting in the same range (not adjusted for inflation). I’ll say this manages just under that figure.
Tron: Ares opening weekend prediction: $42.6 million
We’re in the dog days of August as Weapons seeks to three-peat at #1 this weekend though a fascinating challenger could emerge depending on Netflix’s reporting. KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event looks to capitalize on its massively successful animated streaming numbers with a Saturday and Sunday engagement of theatrical screenings. We also have Ethan Coen’s dark comedy Honey Don’t! out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
KPop Demon Hunters is already the highest viewed Netflix animated picture in history. The streamer decided to give it the silver screen sing-along treatment this Saturday and Sunday only. Here’s the catch: Netflix usually doesn’t report their numbers. I think they could make an exception due to the unprecedented nature of this release. If they do, I believe low teens is doable and maybe even more. If it manages to post a 1st or 2nd place debut, I would think Netflix would want the bragging rights. We shall see what they decide.
As for Don’t!, my lowly $1.8 million projection won’t get it in the top five regardless of whether KPop unveils its grosses. After receiving middling reviews from Cannes and being put out on a meager 1200 screens, look for this to fade rapidly.
That leaves holdovers and Weapons may see a drop in the mid 30s to repeat at #1. In fact, the top five should remain the same quintet if KPop isn’t in the mix. However, I suspect Nobody 2 might have the largest percentage drop and that could result in a fall from third to fifth (or fourth to sixth). That would allow The Fantastic Four: First Steps and The Bad Guys 2 to each rise a spot with Freakier Friday either remaining runner-up or being third.
Here’s my top 6 take with the caveat that KPop‘s placement might not occur:
1. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million
**2. KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
3. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
5. The Bad Guys 2
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
6. Nobody
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
Box Office Results (August 15-17)
Weapons easily pummeled the competition yet again in its sophomore frame with $24.4 million, right in line with my $24.9 million call. Zach Cregger’s critically hailed horror thriller is up to $88 million after ten days.
Freakier Friday was second in weekend #2 with $14.2 million, slightly exceeding my forecast of $13 million. The Disney sequel has made $54 million.
Action sequel Nobody 2 with Bob Odenkirk opened at the lower end of expectations with $9.2 million, failing to catch my $11.3 million projection. While it managed to outdo its 2021 predecessor, the original faced COVID challenges.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps was fourth with $9 million (I said $7.5 million). The MCU pic’s tally is $247 million after four weeks.
The Bad Guys 2 rounded out the top five with $7.5 million. The 29% decline meant it surpassed my $5.5 million take. The animated sequel has earned $53 million in three weeks.
Netflix is taking the rare step next weekend of capitalizing on already existing content when they release KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event. Released on the streamer in June, the musical fantasy has become a family friendly phenomenon on the service. Hunters will get the “sing-along” treatment (something usually reserved for Disney) with a two night only event on Saturday, August 23rd and Sunday, August 24th.
Already Netflix’s most viewed animated offering ever, Maggie Kang and Chris Appelhans direct. Voiceover work is provided by Arden Cho, Ahn Hyo-seop, May Hong, Ji-young Yoo, Yunjin Kim, Daniel Dae Kim, Ken Jeong, and Lee Byung-hun. Angling for Oscar nominations in Animated Feature and Original Song (single “Golden” in particular), the question is how many kiddos will successfully drag their parents to material available in the living room and on the iPad.
I think this could reach $10M+ in its two days of release and my hunch is to go with an over performance in the low teens (even with the challenge of youngsters returning to school).
KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million
Action sequel Nobody 2 starring Bob Odenkirk is the only wide release vying for a spot in the top five this weekend as Weapons aims to repeat in first place. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:
The first Nobody in 2021 premiered as COVID was presenting challenges to theaters. The follow-up is expected to build upon on the original’s numbers. I still question whether this gets to teens and I am putting it a shade under. That likely means a third place showing.
Weapons from Zach Cregger had a spectacular debut (more on that below). With an A- Cinemascore (impressive for the genre), its sophomore dip could be less pronounced than other summer offerings. Lack of competition should also help. I will warn that my drop-off projections have been a bit generous lately. Yet I’ll say a low to mid 40s ease should mean a mid 20s gross and that leaves it in first with room to spare.
As for Freakier Friday, it could fall more than 50% and still remain in second. Holdovers The Fantastic Four: First Steps and The Bad Guys 2 should round out the high five. Here’s how I have it playing out:
1. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $24.9 million
2. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $13 million
3. Nobody 2
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
5. The Bad Guys 2
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Box Office Results (August 8-10)
Weapons capitalized on its intriguing trailer and laudatory reviews, dominating the chart with $43.5 million. That’s way ahead of my meager $28.8 million take and another 2025 winner for Warner Bros. While I don’t see it legging out like Sinners (another WB property), the road ahead should be fruitful.
Disney’s Freakier Friday with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan had to settle for second with $28.5 million. That’s on the lower end of its expected range and a bit below my $32.5 million prediction. It’ll hope for family audiences to keep it afloat in the coming weeks. That could be a tall order with its intended audience going back to school.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps, after two weeks at #1, was third with $15.7 million. The near 60% plummet (again) was under my $18.9 million estimate and the reboot stands at $230 million.
The Bad Guys 2 was fourth with $10.5 million in its second go-round. Once again I was more generous at $13.6 million. The animated sequel has made $43 million and is likely to fall short of its predecessor’s domestic tally ($97 million).
The Naked Gun rounded out the top five with $8.3 million and I said it would do $10 million. The two-week total is $32 million.
Finally, Sketch from Angel Studios debuted in lowly 10th place with $2.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.9 million since its Wednesday bow. I went with $3.9 million and $5.8 million, respectively.
Arriving 22 years after the critically acclaimed remake of the 1976 Disney body swap comedy with Jodie Foster is Freakier Friday on August 8th. Nisha Ganatra takes over the directorial reins from Mark Waters with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan returning to headline. Other returnees from 2003 include Mark Harmon, Chad Michael Murray, Rosalind Chao, and Ryan Malgarini plus newbies Julia Butters, Sophia Hammons, and Manny Jacinto joining.
With the source material originating from a 1972 kids novel, Curtis/Lohan’s take received stronger reviews than the original cinematic version. Curtis was even nominated for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes. The box office was equally impressive with a $22 million premiere and $110 million overall domestically. Adjusted for inflation, that debut would be close to $40 million today.
Freakier has a number of pluses going for it. There’s a nostalgia factor, the narrative of a Lohan comeback, and a dearth of female driven material this summer. Then there’s the Mouse House marketing. All of that combined could get this mean low 30s and maybe even higher.
Freakier Friday opening weekend prediction: $32.5 million
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