In what might be the most egregious Oscar snub in the history of the ceremony, Vanilla Ice’s iconic jam “Ninja Rap” was not (I repeat not) nominated for Original Song with 1991’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles II: The Secret of the Ooze. Therefore the six previous features in the TMNT franchise have had zero presence with the Academy in the 30 years+ of its existence.
That could very well change with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. The animated pic that includes Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg among its cowriters opens Wednesday, August 2nd. With the review embargo lifted, the Rotten Tomatoes score is a boisterous and rather shocking 98%! Many critics are saying this is the best Turtles offering the series has seen.
Best Animated Feature is absolutely in play. The catch could be the competition. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is guaranteed a slot and perhaps the win. Japan’s The Boy and the Heron is probably in and don’t discount Pixar’s Elemental. Disney also has this fall’s Wish and other hopefuls could pop up in the second half of the year.
Yet it’s hard to ignore the positivity for Donatello, Michelangelo, Raphael, and Leonardo. My hunch is that this quartet could make the quintet of animated features in contention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Disney’s second at bat in adapting their theme park attraction to the big screen arrives in theaters this Friday with Haunted Mansion. Directed by Justin Simien (maker of 2014’s acclaimed Dear White People), the cast includes LaKeith Stanfield, Tiffany Haddish, Owen Wilson, Danny DeVito, Rosario Dawson, Dan Levy, current Supporting Actress Oscar recipient Jamie Lee Curtis, and former Supporting Actor winner Jared Leto.
The family friendly horror comedy is drawing mostly indifference from critics. With 55 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, the meter is at 55%. That’s an upgrade over the 14% for The Haunted Mansion from 2003 starring Eddie Murphy. Yet it’s not exactly in Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl territory or even Jungle Cruise with 62%, to compare Mouse House ride based pictures.
Visual Effects or Production Design are really the only races where Mansion would have any opportunity for Academy attention. I guarantee Disney is far more concerned with this turning a profit (which could be a challenge) than any awards campaign. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (07/26): A rather low reported 1900 screen count for Talk to Me has lowered my estimate from $4.8 million to $3.6 million. That likely leaves it outside of the top six.
After a historic box office weekend, July closes out with a pair of new releases in Disney’s Haunted Mansion and A24’s critically acclaimed Talk to Me. Neither are likely to dislodge the potent 1-2 punch of Barbenheimer. My detailed prediction posts on the newbies are here:
I don’t really see audiences clamoring for a fresh spin on Haunted Mansion (nearly 20 years after the one with Eddie Murphy) and buzz seems light. Family crowds should get it to a ho-hum mid 20s gross and that would place it in third.
Even if it made $30-35 million, that wouldn’t mean top two. Those spots are reserved for Barbie and Oppenheimer after their amazing starts (more on that below). The question is how far each dips in weekend #2.
For Barbie, the event status that it took on makes it somewhat naturally front loaded. A worst case decline might be around 55-60%. Considering the A Cinemascore grade and chance for repeat business, I’ll say 45-50% is more feasible and that means low to possibly mid 80s.
Oppenheimer also nabbed an A Cinemascore grade and perhaps some adult viewers are content for the IMAX screenings to be a bit less packed. I’ll say it doesn’t quite fall 50% with a take of over $40 million.
Sound of Freedom should continue its meager percentage decreases while Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One hopes to right the ship after a turbulent two weeks. They should place fourth and fifth, respectively.
While Talk to Me is generating impressive reviews, this could be the type of A24 elevated horror experience that doesn’t bring genre fans out in droves. A lot of them just got their fright fix with Insidious: The Red Door as well.
And with that, here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $82.6 million
2. Oppenheimer
Predicted Gross: $43.8 million
3. Haunted Mansion
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million
4. Sound of Freedom
Predicted Gross: $14.7 million
5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
Box Office Results (July 21-23)
Racking up the fourth highest financial frame in history, Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer gave us the best weekend in over four years.
Barbie captured the zeitgeist and an especially sizable female audience to the tune of $162 million, right on pace with my $160.8 million prediction. That’s the best three-day opening of 2023 and my hunch is that it will remain so. It’s also the #1 premiere for a female directed feature and 20th overall.
Oppenheimer gave Mr. Nolan his personal best third start (after The Dark Knight Rises and The Dark Knight). Blasting beyond my $65.3 million estimate, the three-hour Oscar contender amassed $82.4 million for an astonishing runner-up showing. Those packed IMAX screenings didn’t hurt.
Sound of Freedom was third as it continued its low declines with $19.8 million, just below my $21 million projection. The brilliantly marketed action thriller sits at $124 million.
And this is where the good news stops. Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning, after a less than expected opening, had a free fall from 1st to 4th. The Barbenheimer phenomenon helped it plummet 65% to $19.3 million compared to my $25.5 million call. The ten-day tally is $118 million.
Indiana Jones and the Dial Destiny and Insidious: The Red Door were fifth and sixth, respectively. Each made $6.6 million. Indy‘s four-week earnings are at $158 million while Insidious‘s three-week bounty is $71 million.
I incorrectly had Elemental in fifth, but it was seventh with $5.7 million (I said $6.7 million) for $137 million overall.
Disney is again hoping families wish to check into the Haunted Mansion when it opens July 28th. Based on the half century plus old theme park attraction, Justin Simien directs with a cast featuring LaKeith Stanfield, Tiffany Haddish, Owen Wilson, Danny DeVito, Rosario Dawson, Jamie Lee Curtis, and Jared Leto.
The 2023 version is apparently adhering to the Sean Parker school of thought when it comes to titling. As you may recall, this is now the second pic based on the ride behind 2003’s The Haunted Mansion with Eddie Murphy. It opened over Thanksgiving weekend 20 years ago and grossed a fair $75 million stateside.
I’m not so sure kids are clamoring for a fresh take on this spooky story. Buzz seems quiet and that’s troubling for the Mouse House after the recent commercial disappointment Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.
Two decades ago, our Mansion with the The had a three-day premiere of $24 million and $34 million over the November holiday. The The less Mansion could open similarly in the mid to high 20s from Friday to Sunday. That’s pretty weak stuff considering we’re not adjusting for inflation.
Haunted Mansion opening weekend prediction: $25.4 million
Tom Cruise hopes to follow up the biggest hit of his career with a franchise best opening for the signature franchise as Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One opens on Wednesday. It is the only newcomer out and you can peruse detailed prediction post on it here:
Cruise’s star power is the highest it’s been in years coming off the nearly billion and a half plus earning Top Gun: Maverick from last summer. In order to post the largest start among the seven missions, Reckoning will need to top the $61 million made by predecessor Fallout in 2018. I’m projecting it will do so with over $10 million to spare and bring in over $100 million when counting its Wednesday and Thursday numbers.
The real battle should be for second place. Coming off a surprise victory, Insidious: The Red Door should experience the heftiest decline (mid 60s) of the top five. This might cause a drop of 1st to 4th if Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny falls in the 50-55% range.
Sound of Freedom, the thriller from upstart Angel Studios, was the real story of the previous frame (more on that below). With an A+ Cinemascore grade, it should have the smallest decline other than Elemental in fifth position. If the dip is lower than my estimated 40%, it might just manage to rise from third to second. I’ll give Indy the slight edge. However, it might be worth keeping an eye on daily grosses throughout the week.
Here’s how I see the high five playing out:
1. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Predicted Gross: $72.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $102.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
3. Sound of Freedom
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
4. Insidious: The Red Door
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. Elemental
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
Box Office Results (July 7-9)
As mentioned, horror fans were ready for scares as Insidious: The Red Door opened impressively. The fifth pic in the series which started in 2010 posted the second highest debut behind #2 in 2013 with $33 million. That’s beyond my $25.2 million prediction as the Sony/Blumhouse production has already doubled its reported $16 million budget.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny was second in weekend #2 after its lackluster beginning. Sliding 55%, the $27.4 million gross was on pace with my $28 million take. The fifth go-round in this franchise is at $122 million after ten disappointing days for Disney.
The aforementioned Sound of Freedom employed shrewd marketing tactics that included a pay it forward method where viewers could purchase tickets for others. Jim Caviezel’s tale of taking on human traffickers reached its intended conservative and faith-based crowd and then some. The Friday to Sunday haul was $19.6 million for third place, easily outpacing my $12.5 million estimate. Since its unveiling on Tuesday, July 4th, the total is $41 million. Needless to say, Angel Studios has established itself as a player in the box office game.
Elemental was fourth with $10 million, ahead of my $8 million projection. Pixar’s latest finally crossed the century mark at $109 million.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse rounded out the top five with $8 million (I said $7.8 million) for $357 million overall.
Finally, critically acclaimed raunchy comedy Joy Ride stalled. It was sixth with just $5.8 million compared to my $8.4 million prediction.
After a subpar start, Harrison Ford’s fifth go-round as the iconic fedora clad archaeologist hopes to repeat at #1. The fifth edition of a horror franchise could disrupt that as Insidious: The Red Door swings in. We also have the critically acclaimed raunchy comedy Joy Ride and action pic Sound of Freedom from upstart Angel Studios. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
After a lackluster haul (more on that below), Dr. Jones and company might see a sophomore drop in the low 50s. While the B+ Cinemascore grade exceeds the B that crowds gave predecessor Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull, it still indicates middling enthusiasm moving forward. My high 20s take does mean a repeat performance atop the charts.
That’s because I have Insidious: The Red Door in the mid 20s. While that’s under the $29 million that The Last Key opened with in 2018, it is still a fine result for the 13-year-old franchise.
The weekend’s wild card is Sound of Freedom. Jim Caviezel’s turn as a vigilante taking on human traffickers is being championed by faith-based and conservative groups. This resulted in a terrific $14 million bounty when it started on July 4th. How it legs out is anyone’s guess and I’m going with a low double digits Friday-Sunday number. That would put it solidly in third.
As for Joy Ride, critics are being kind and the studio is hoping for a Crazy Rich Asians style sleeper hit. The hard R rating could prevent that and my sub $10 million projection puts it in fourth just ahead of animated holdovers Elemental and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
And with that, here’s how I foresee the top 6 shaking out:
1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Predicted Gross: $28 million
2. Insidious: The Red Door
Predicted Gross: $25.2 million
3. Sound of Freedom
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
4. Joy Ride
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Elemental
Predicted Gross: $8 million
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
Box Office Results (June 30-July 2)
Considering Crystal Skull in 2008 made off with $100 million for its Friday to Sunday portion of a holiday weekend, the $60.3 million for Dial of Destiny is a major letdown for Disney. I wasn’t much more generous at $65.3 million. When it premiered in Cannes over a month ago, its mediocre reaction set the table for a disappointing gross. Perhaps more importantly is that it didn’t play for younger audiences whose reverence for the series isn’t matched by the 40 and up crowd.
Disney/Pixar’s Elemental, after a troubling start, continued to level off nicely in weekend #3. It was second with $12.1 million, in line with my $12.7 million prediction for a three-week $89 million tally.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was third with $12 million compared to my $13.5 million estimate. The Sony juggernaut has amassed $340 million.
Jennifer Lawrence’s No Hard Feelings was fourth with $7.8 million (I went higher at $89 million). The ten-day take is $29 million which is fairly decent for a genre that’s struggled in recent times.
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts rounded out the top five with $7.3 million. I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The total is $136 million.
Finally, DreamWorks Animation’s Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken was a major flop in sixth with only $5.5 million. I was kinder at $7.8 million. With serious kiddie competition, parents opted for leftovers like Elemental and Spidey.
Between No Hard Feelings and this Friday’s Joy Ride, the raunchy comedy is back in multiplexes for the summer of 2023. The latter centers on four women (Ashley Park, Sherry Cola, Everything Everywhere All at Once‘s Oscar nominee Stephanie Hsu, Sabrina Wu) on an international road trip. Costars include Ronny Chieng, Lori Tann Chinn, David Denman, and Annie Mumolo. Adele Lim makes her directorial debut. She’s best known for cowriting 2018’s Crazy Rich Asians (which the Academy surprisingly completely ignored) and Disney’s 2021 animated pic Raya and the Last Dragon (which nabbed an Animated Feature nomination).
Since its premiere back in March at South by Southwest, buzz for Ride has been glowing. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is parked at 97% as the Lionsgate release hopes to have sleeper potential at the box office. Its awards prospects could be tied to that. If it achieves a high profile, perhaps an Original Screenplay nod is doable. I will note, however, that this genre is not exactly a favorite of the voters.
A more likely scenario is the Golden Globes taking notice in the Musical/Comedy race where Crazy Rich Asians did compete. It could be a reach, but the reviews are there for it to occur. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The coming-of-age fantasy Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken joins a crowded animated marketplace when it debuts this weekend. The DreamWorks project may come in behind holdovers Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Pixar’s Elemental on the charts. Awards prospects for Kirk DeMicco’s latest directorial effort may also find it playing catch up with those titles.
Reviews for Kraken are at 78% on Rotten Tomatoes though the positive notices aren’t exactly gushing. DeMicco has been in the Animated Feature mix before with 2013’s The Croods. His follow-up, 2021’s Vivo, had a better RT score than Ruby and failed to make that year’s quintet in the competition.
We know Spidey will be a force to reckon with for the 96th Academy Awards. It’s easily the frontrunner and that may not change. Elemental is likely to grab a spot. We are awaiting potential heavy hitters like July’s How Do You Live? from Hayao Miyazaki and Disney’s Wish this fall.
If those pics and others don’t pan out, perhaps Kraken could nab the fifth slot. I wouldn’t bet on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Ahh, the 80s. It’s a decade where filmmakers (many of whom came of age at the time) are constantly prodding our nostalgic sensibilities. That’s when the Spielberg/Lucas collaborative trilogy of Raiders of the Lost Ark, Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, and Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade gave Harrison Ford another iconic role and moviegoers another classic franchise. In 2008, Ford donned the fedora again to more mixed results with Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. The 80s now describes the lead’s own age (he became an octogenarian last summer). Indy is back as James Mangold takes over directorial duties with Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, the time travel adventure that marks the fifth and last entry in the series. The Logan and Ford v Ferrari maker also has Karen Allen and John Rhys-Davies reprising their roles. Other supporting players include Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Mads Mikkelsen, Antonio Banderas, Toby Jones, Boyd Holbrook, and Ethann Isidore.
With a whopping budget reportedly approaching $300 million, Disney is banking on crowds of all ages making the multiplex trek. That’s not a sure thing as we all just witnessed The Flash go belly up. Destiny attempted to generate solid buzz when it premiered last month at the Cannes Film Festival. It might’ve had the opposite effect. Reviews were middling and it currently stands at just 59% on Rotten Tomatoes (the oft maligned Skull sits at 77%). Another factor is that younger viewers may not have the sentimentality for Indy that older ones hold.
Fifteen summers ago, Skull premiered on Thursday ahead of a long Memorial Day holiday weekend. It amassed over $150 million for the five-day haul. A three-day take of $100 million would be welcome news for the Mouse Factory. I’m skeptical if that’s achievable. In fact, I’m questioning whether it reaches the figure that shares Ford’s age. Anything under $80 million would certainly be considered a disappointment and that’s where I have this landing. In fact, I’m only going mid-6os for what would be considered a massive letdown.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny opening weekend prediction: $65.3 million
For my Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken prediction, click here:
Following a weekend in which two high profile pictures opened far under what their respective studios hoped for, a pair of comedies debut wide attempting to find an audience. They are Jennifer Lawrence’s raunchy comedy No Hard Feelings and Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
Feelings marks Lawrence’s first headlining role in theaters since Red Sparrow over five years ago. This isn’t a genre she’s known for and comedies in general struggle to break out these days in multiplexes. It could be lucky to top $10 million and that should put it in fourth position for a soft start.
Asteroid City performed impressively in its limited NY/LA six theater engagement. Branching out to middle America is another ballgame and my estimate puts it in sixth.
As for the #1 spot… well, it gets interesting. Before The Flash premiered, the assumption was it would have two weeks to itself atop the charts. However, the Ezra Miller led DCEU adventure opened way below expectations (more on that below). With a weak B Cinemascore grade, a drop in the mid 60s could occur. If Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse sees a small decline in the 30% range, Spidey may return to the top spot over his superhero competitor. I’m guessing that will be the case.
The Flash wasn’t the only bomb as Pixar’s Elemental, for all intents and purposes, had the weakest wide release in the studio’s near 30 year history. It had an A Cinemascore grade so it may only dip in the mid to high 40s for third place.
I have Transformers: Rise of the Beasts falling around 55-60% in its third frame for fifth place with The Little Mermaid right behind Asteroid City in seventh.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million
2. The Flash
Predicted Gross: $17.5 million
3. Elemental
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million
4. No Hard Feelings
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million
5. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
6. Asteroid City
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
7. The Little Mermaid
Predicted Gross: $7 million
Box Office Results (June 16-18)
You can read a whole slew of think pieces as to why The Flash failed so badly in its debut. I had it making $83.2 million. It… um… didn’t. The DCEU title earned an unthinkable $55 million marking a sizable disappointment for Warner Bros. Here’s a figure I can’t stop thinking about. Twelve summers ago, notorious dud Green Lantern rolled out with $53 million. Adjusted for inflation, that’s better than The Flash. Ouch.
If it weren’t for the paragraph above, there would likely be more think pieces about Elemental not connecting with audiences. The Pixar animated feature was second with just $29.6 million. I was on target with a $30.6 million prediction. On the heels of Lightyear flopping last summer, this is two under performers in a row for the Disney property.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was third with $27 million, in range with my $27.6 million call. The three-week tally is $279 million and, per above, I see it leaping to first yet again.
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts tumbled 66% in weekend #2 with $20.6 million (I said $21.8 million). The ten-day take is $101 million.
The Little Mermaid rounded out the top five with $11 million, falling below my $13.8 million forecast. The Disney live-action remake has made $253 million thus far in its four weeks.
Finally, horror spoof The Blackening couldn’t translate positive reviews to brisk business. It was sixth with $6 million compared to my $7.7 million projection.
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