Finding Dory Box Office Prediction

Thirteen years after the original made a major splash at the box office, Finding Dory hits theaters next weekend and looks to reinvigorate a somewhat slumping marketplace. The Disney/Pixar release is, of course, the sequel to 2003’s now classic Finding Nemo. Director Andrew Stanton is back, as are the voices of Ellen DeGeneres and Albert Brooks. Plenty of other familiar faces make their voices heard here – Diane Keaton, Bill Hader, Idris Elba, Eugene Levy, Kate McKinnon, Ty Burrell, Ed O’Neill, and Dominic West among them.

The summer of 2016 has seen a host of sequels not matching up to their originals. Some of them have been family programming, like Alice Through the Looking Glass and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows.

It is highly likely that Dory will not suffer the same fate. In fact, the real question seems to be whether or not this will score Pixar’s largest opening weekend in its now 21 year history. That honor currently belongs to another sequel, 2010’s Toy Story 3, which debuted with $110.3 million. Dory is currently said to be tracking a bit above that. I believe it will surpass that number, but probably not by much (though with the sequelitis occurring recently, I do feel a touch of nervousness with this prediction). Still, if anything can break through – it’s this.

In order for it to score the second biggest animated premiere in history, it’d need to top the $115.7 million earned by last summer’s Minions. To get to #1, Dory would have to swim past the $121.6 million gross of Shrek the Third from 2007. It’s possible that it could achieve either one of those records.

I’ll predict Dory falls below Shrek and just above Minions to earn the #2 animated debut stateside and also set the Pixar record. That would go a long ways toward washing the bad taste out of the Mouse Factory’s mouths for Looking Glass and last fall’s The Good Dinosaur, which was the first Pixar title to lose money.

Finding Dory opening weekend prediction: $117.3 million

For my Central Intelligence prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/08/central-intelligence-box-office-prediction/

Love the Coopers Box Office Prediction

The Christmas season hits the box office in mid November as the holiday themed  Love the Coopers opens next Friday. With an all-star cast including John Goodman, Diane Keaton, Marisa Tomei, Olivia Wilde, Ed Helms, Anthony Mackie, June Squibb, Amanda Seyfried, and Alan Arkin, the family affair will look to cash in with audiences looking for some Xmas cheer.

Its prospects are a bit sketchy. Trailers and TV spots for Coopers have done little to make it look like another run of the mill big ensemble experience. Its best hope is to bring in a female audience looking for a diversion from James Bond, which should still be performing like gang busters in weekend #2.

That might be enough to help it reach double digits, though I don’t believe that’s guaranteed. I could actually see this debuting in line with The Family Stone, a similarly themed comedy which opened 10 years ago. Solid word of mouth could push it to perform in subsequent weekends yet that remains to be seen.

Love the Coopers opening weekend prediction: $11.3 million

For my The 33 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/06/the-33-box-office-prediction/

For my My All-American prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/07/my-all-american-box-office-prediction/

And So It Goes Box Office Prediction

Director Rob Reiner attempts a summer movie season counterprogramming move with And So It Goes, opening Friday. The romantic comedy stars Michael Douglas and Diane Keaton and the pic will try to bring in an adult audience burnt out on would-be blockbusters populating the marketplace.

I’m not so sure it’ll succeed. Early reviews have been mixed and the advertising campaign has been low-key. And So It Goes would love to bring in the numbers of Hope Springs with Meryl Streep and Tommy Lee Jones, which opened two summers ago to a $14 million opening weekend gross. I don’t believe this will reach those heights. Premiering on a relatively low 1800 screens, I’m forecasting that this won’t quite reach double digits and should be available for home viewing in the near future.

And So It Goes opening weekend prediction: $9.3 million

For my Lucy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/lucy-box-office-prediction/

For my Hercules prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/hercules-box-office-prediction/

This Day in Movie History: January 5

Director Alfonso Cuaron may be getting all sorts of deserved attention for his visual mastery in Gravity, but it was seven years ago today in Movie History that his previous feature Children of Men opened wide domestically. In many ways, Children of Men is just as much a visionary achievement for the director. Starring Clive Owen, Julianne Moore, Michael Caine, and current Best Actor frontrunner Chiwetel Ejiofer, this futuristic thriller was easily one of the best films of 2006. While it was nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Production Design, it was robbed of a Best Picture nomination. Men only managed a just OK $35 million at the box office, but Cuaron would more than make up for it in 2013 with his Sandra Bullock space picture.

As for birthdays, Robert Duvall is 83. One of the finest actors in his generation, Duvall’s resume includes To Kill a Mockingbird, the original True Grit, the first two Godfather films, MASH, The Conversation, Network, Tender Mercies, The Natural, Colors, “Lonesome Dove”, Days of Thunder, A Civil Action, Get Low, and many more. He’s been nominated six times for an Oscar and won in 1983 for his role in Tender Mercies.

Diane Keaton is 68 today. Like Duvall, she too appeared in Coppola’s Godfather films (all three, unlike her costar). She’s also known for her collaborations with Woody Allen which brought her an Oscar in 1977 for Annie Hall. Other notable films with Woody: Sleeper, Love and Death, Manhattan, and Manhattan Murder Mystery. Further high-profile pictures featuring Ms. Keaton: Looking for Mr. Goodbar, Reds, Baby Boom, Father of the Bride and its sequel, The First Wives Club, Marvin’s Room, and Something’s Gotta Give. She’s been nominated three other times for an Oscar other than her winning role for Hall.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the birthday performers – well pretty simple. Duvall and Keaton starred together in The Godfather and The Godfather Part II.

And that’s today – January 5 – in Movie History!