The Despicable Me/Minions has been a financial force over the past decade and a half, but not so much with awards voters. Despicable Me 4 is out this Wednesday from director Chris Renaud. Vocal work is provided by Steve Carell, Kristen Wiig, Pierre Coffin, Joey King, Miranda Cosgrove, Stephen Colbert, Steve Coogan, Sofia Vergara, Chloe Fineman, and Will Ferrell.
The three direct predecessors and the two spinoff Minions titles have eaxg grossed $250 million or higher domestically since 2010. Only Despicable Me 2 generated any Oscar nods. Those were in Animated Feature and Original Song (the Pharrell smash “Happy”) and Frozen beat it out in both races (the latter with its signature tune “Let It Go”).
Part 4 of the franchise has a 63% RT rating. That’s lower than part 1 (80%) and 2 (75%) and Minions:The Rise of Gru (70%) while slightly above part 3 (58%) and Minions (56%). In short, this does appear primed to enter the series back in the Oscar mix. Lucky for it, the dollars should continue to flow. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Universal and Illumination Entertainment have posted great results through five pictures in the Despicable Me franchise and they look to extend their luck with part 4 on July 3rd. The animated comedy is directed by Chris Renaud with Steve Carell, Kristin Wiig, Pierre Coffin, Joey King, Miranda Cosgrove, Stephen Colbert, Steve Coogan, Sofia Vergara, Chloe Fineman, and Will Ferrell providing voiceover work.
This has been a highly durable series in its nearly decade and a half of existence. Despicable Me debuted with $56 million in July of 2010 with an eventual $251 million domestic gross. Part 2 arrived on Wednesday, July 3, 2013 and therefore had the same release pattern as this entry. It took in $84 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday three-day with $143 million when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday (the 4th). The final tally was $368 million. Despicable Me 3 came in with $72 million in July 2017 and $264 million overall.
I didn’t forget the Minions. The spin-off tale tallied $115 million out of the gate in July 2015 with $336 million domestically. Two summers ago, sequel Minions: The Rise of Gru banked $107 million en route to $370 million total.
Animation brought summer 2024 out of the doldrums via Inside Out 2 which vastly exceeded expectations. It’ll still be making money over the holiday frame, but Despicable should fall in range with some of its predecessors. I don’t foresee a premiere as high as part 2 (though no one thought Inside Out 2 would amass over $150 million in weekend 1).
A mid to high 70s Friday to Sunday should mean a five-day in the $125 million plus space for another Despicable victory.
Despicable Me 4 opening weekend prediction: $79.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $126.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Migration is the latest animated offering from Illumination and it arrives in theaters this Friday. The comedic adventure is directed by Benjamin Renner with a voice cast including Kumail Nanjiani, Elizabeth Banks, Awkwafina, Keegan-Michael Key, David Mitchell, Carol Kane, and Danny DeVito.
With its review embargo lifted, the Rotten Tomatoes meter is a fair though far from overwhelming 71%. This is Illumination’s 14th big screen effort that began with Despicable Me back in 2010. While the studio’s product usually succeeds in being a box office winner, only Despicable Me 2 in 2013 managed a Best Animated Feature Oscar at the Oscars.
Don’t look for Migration to be the second. Precursors like Critics Choice and the Globes have already ignored it. Illumination does have another 2023 contender in the financial behemoth The Super Mario Bros. Movie. The chances are stronger (if still unlikely) that it makes the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Universal and Illumination Entertainment hope families flock to Migration when it debuts over the long holiday weekend on December 22nd. The animated comedic adventure is directed by Benjamin Renner with a voice cast including Kumail Nanjiani, Elizabeth Banks, Awkwafina, Keegan-Michael Key, David Mitchell, Carol Kane, and Danny DeVito.
This studio knows how to put out blockbusters with the Despicable Me and Minions franchises. They had one of the biggest hits of the year with The Super Mario Bros. Movie. During Christmastime at multiplexes, films geared toward kids can start out a little slower than they normally would. However, they tend to leg out impressively over the weekends to come.
That might be the case with Migration. A high teens or lows 20s start sounds about right.
Migration opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:
Those animated Nintendo plumbers should dominate the box office once again after a massive Easter haul, but there are newcomers to ponder. We have horror comedy Renfield with Nicolas Cage and Nicholas Hoult, less funny horror tale The Pope’s Exorcist featuring Russell Crowe, and Japanese animated fantasy Suzume. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:
Nothing will approach the sophomore frame for The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which soared in its first five days of release (more on that below). The question is not whether it will remain #1 (it will easily), but how far it falls. With an A Cinemascore and no competition for families, I’ll say it drops in the 50% range.
Renfield is garnering pretty decent reviews and a double digits to low teens output should allow it to be the runner-up. Suzume is a little trickier. Other Toho titles have exceeded $10 million for their beginnings and this could do the same. I’m projecting it a tad under for a fourth place showing behind the sophomore weekend for Air (which should have a nice hold).
The Pope’s Exorcist is also a bit of a head scratcher. Horror flicks can certainly over perform and this did decent business overseas this past weekend. Yet with Renfield providing a diversion for eyeballs, this might not even make the top 5.
Finally, I’ll dispense with Mafia Mamma. This Bleecker Street comedy stars Toni Collette and seems to be flying far under the radar. I didn’t do an individual prognosis post for it and haven’t seen a screen count. Given the distributor’s lack of success with earlier projects, this might be lucky to hit $2 million. That would put it nowhere near the high five.
Given that numbers 3-7 especially could be close, I’ll give you my outlook for those spots:
1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $74.9 million
2. Renfield
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
3. Air
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
4. Suzume
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. John Wick: Chapter 4
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
6. The Pope’s Exorcist
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
Box Office Results (April 7-9)
Illumination Entertainment doesn’t really miss when it comes to putting out animated blockbusters (think Despicable Me, Minions, Sing, The Secret Life of Pets franchises). Now they clearly have a host of Nintendo properties that will shower them with coins. The Super Mario Bros. Movie vastly exceeded expectations with $146.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $204.6 million since its Wednesday premiere. That is, to say the least, better than my respective estimates of $98.6 million and $137.7 million. The temperature was clearly right for its massive breakthrough performance as its global $377 million gross is the best ever for an animated feature.
John Wick: Chapter 4 stayed put in second with $14.4 million (on target with my $14.6 million call). The three-week total stands at $146 million.
Ben Affleck’s Air rode a wave of rising buzz to impressive numbers. It made $14.4 million for third with $20.2 million since its Wednesday start. The sports drama managed to top my takes which were $12.7 million and $18.9 million. As mentioned, this should hold up well in the coming weekends.
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was the biggest victim of the Mario wave. In its second weekend, the adventure tumbled 63% to $13.8 million. I was more optimistic with $16.8 million. The ten-day domestic tally is $61 million as its future as a franchise is murky.
Scream VI was fifth with $3.4 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five as it crossed the century mark after five weeks with $103 million.
Finally,faith-based drama His Only Son failed to capitalize on the religious holiday with $2.8 million for sixth. I thought it might do a bit better in frame #2 and said $3.8 million. It’s made $10 million.
Check out my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you stream!
Blogger’s Update (04/05): I am revising my estimate for Mario slightly up from $92.6M for the three-day to $98.6M and from $128.7M for the five-day to $137.7M
The Easter weekend starts early with Illumination Entertainment’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Ben Affleck’s sports drama Air rising in multiplexes on Wednesday. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
It’s Mario that should have no trouble ruling the holiday frame. Coming from the studio behind the massive Despicable Me, Minions, and Sing franchises, this is likely to spawn another one. I’ve got it topping $90 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday portion and falling just shy of $130 million during its first five days.
Air could certainly exceed forecasts with its strong reviews and frequent promotion during the March Madness tournament. I’m projecting a low double digits output for the three-day and high teens for the five. The Friday to Sunday take would place it fourth. Expect it to have sturdy holds in subsequent weekends.
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves may see a mid to high 50s dip in its sophomore frame while John Wick: Chapter 4 might experience a high 40s to 50% percentage drop. That would mean they fall a spot to 2nd and 3rd, respectively.
After a slightly better than anticipated beginning, His Only Son could take advantage of the Easter weekend with a l0w 30s slide for fifth.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $98.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $137.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million
3. John Wick: Chapter 4
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
4. Air
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $18.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
5. His Only Son
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
Box Office Results (March 31-April 2)
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves matched or barely surpassed most prognostications with $37.2 million for the gold. That’s beyond my $32.7 million call. It’s a decent opening though not spectacular considering the reported $150 million budget (minus promotion). Factoring in overseas earnings, however, it might still spawn a franchise.
John Wick: Chapter 4 was second after its series best start. Down an understandable 62% at $28.3 million (I went a little higher at $31.5 million), the ten-day haul is $123 million.
Faith-based drama His Only Son, on less than 2000 screens, managed a sturdy $5.5 million (I was lower at $3.8 million). As mentioned, this may experience the lowest decline of the holdovers coming up.
Spots 4-6 were holdover sequels with Scream VI in fourth at $5.3 million compared to my $4.2 million projection. The tally is nearly at nine digits with $98 million.
Creed III was fifth with $5 million (I said $4.6 million) to bring its total to $148 million.
Shazam! Fury of the Gods was sixth at $4.6 million, in line with my $4.3 million forecast for a lowly $53 million (which is was its 2019 predecessor opened with).
Check out my podcast where I talk all things box office by searching “Movies at the Speed of Speculation” at your favorite podcasting engine…
Thor: Love and Thunder is the 29th entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and it will be the 29th to debut in first place when it opens Friday. My detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:
The franchise is riding high off the success of Spider-Man: No Way Home and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. The former King of Asgard’s fourth adventure is getting mixed reviews, but that didn’t hurt Multiverse and it shouldn’t matter much here. My projection in the mid 150s gives it a slightly better start than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Captain Marvel.
As for holdovers, Minions: The Rise of Gru blew away expectations (more on that below). It should lose around 50-55% of the Friday to Sunday portion of its opening holiday weekend. Top Gun: Maverick will land in third displaying the smallest dip of the bunch with Elvis and Jurassic World: Dominion rounding out the top five at 40% range falls.
Here’s how I see it looking:
1. Thor: Love and Thunder
Predicted Gross: $155.7 million
2. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Predicted Gross: $48.8 million
3. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million
4. Elvis
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
5. Jurassic World: Dominion
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
Box Office Results (July 1-4)
Minions: The Rise of Gru set a pandemic era record for animated features with a bountiful $107 million. The fifth entry in the Despicable Me/Minions tales, Steve Carell and company soared past my (and everyone else’s) expectations. I had it making $86.4 million over the four-day Independence Day weekend. With an A Cinemascore grade, it should perform well into the future and keep the series chugging along (the next one is slated for summer 2024 already).
Top Gun: Maverick remained in second with $32.2 million – above my $29.8 million take. On the weekend of his 60th birthday, Tom Cruise’s biggest hit ever is up to $570 million.
Elvis shimmied down to third after premiering in first with $22.7 million, right in line with my $23.2 million projection. Baz Luhrmann’s musical biopic is at an impressive $71 million with $100 million firmly in its sights.
Jurassic World: Dominion was fourth with $19.6 million compared to my guesstimate of $17.3 million. The sixth dino flick’s tally roared to $335 million.
The Black Phone rounded out the top five with $14.1 million (I said $14.5 million) as the low budget horror pic has rung up a pleasing $49 million.
Finally, Pixar’s Lightyear continued its uninspiring run with $7.6 million for a $106 million tally. I was more generous at $10.2 million.
Blogger’s Note (06/30): On the eve of its premiere, upping my Minions estimate from $78.4M to $86.4M
Coming off a weekend where four pictures posted grosses north of $20 million (a first since 2018!), Minions: The Rise of Gru looks to set box office fireworks and rule the holiday weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The five-year wait between entries for the Despicable Me/Minions franchise could limit its potential a bit. However, my projected four-day haul approaching $80 million will easily give it the gold.
As for holdovers, Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick should duke it out for second position. While the former edged Maverick for a #1 debut (more on that below), look for Tom Cruise and company to have a better hold and likely maintain runner-up status. It’s also important to remember that overall declines for most pics should be smaller than normal considering that July 4th falls on Monday.
Jurassic World: Dominion and The Black Phone should slide spots to 4th and 5th. There’s a slight chance Phone could experience a hefty slide (due to its being in the horror genre) and Lightyear stays fifth. However, given the Pixar pic’s underperformance and hefty sophomore dip, I don’t anticipate that being the case. Plus Phone nabbed a B+ Cinemascore grade which is just fine for that genre.
With that – let’s make it a top 6 forecast and remember these are projections for Friday to Monday given the Independence Day frame:
1. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Predicted Gross: $86.4 million
2. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $29.8 million
3. Elvis
Predicted Gross: $23.2 million
4. Jurassic World: Dominion
Predicted Gross: $17.3 million
5. The Black Phone
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million
6. Lightyear
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
Box Office Results (June 24-26)
In one of the closest finishes in recent box office times, Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis was crowned king with $31.2 million. While not quite matching my $35.6 million prediction, it’s a solid number for an adult skewering musical biopic.
Top Gun: Maverick continued its epic run in second with $29.6 million. Like with Elvis, I was a little high at $34.8 million. In five weeks of release, the spectacularly performing sequel has amassed $520 million. That’s the third all-time #5 frame behind Avatar and Titanic.
Jurassic World: Dominion fell to third after two weeks on top with $26.7 million, just under my $28.3 million take. The dino saga stands at a sturdy $303 million.
Critically appreciated fright fest The Black Phone opened in fourth with $23.6 million – ringing up a more impressive number than my $18.6 million projection. Considering its budget is only a reported $18 million, this will be yet another profitable venture for Blumhouse.
Finally, Lightyear slid from second to fifth. Crashing harder than anticipated in its second orbit after an unimpressive start, the Pixar spinoff made $18.1 million (I said $23.2 million). The two-week tally is a muted $89 million after ten days. For comparison sake, I had it making $85 million in its first three days.
Illumination Entertainment will rule the Fourth of July weekend at the box office when Minions: The Rise of Gru hits theaters on July 1st. This is the fifth entry in the franchise that began a dozen summers back with Despicable Me and the first in five years.
Some early reviews are out and they’re mostly indicating it’s a decent if unspectacular chapter of the series. With 67% on Rotten Tomatoes, that’s higher than the two previous pics – 2015’s Minions (55%) and 2017’s Despicable Me 3 (59%). Of course, Gru‘s number will soon rise or fall as more critics weigh in.
2010’s Despicable Me (81%) and its 2013 sequel (75%) fared better, but only part two received awards attention. It was nominated for Best Animated Feature and Original Song with Pharrell’s inescapable “Happy”. Due to Disney’s Frozen and the equally omnipresent “Let It Go”, it lost both.
Based on early buzz, I see no path for Gru to find its way to the Animated Feature derby. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Note (06/30): On the eve of its premiere, upping my Minions estimate from $78.4M to $86.4M
Illumination and Universal Pictures should light up the Fourth of July weekend at the box office with Minions: The Rise of Gru. The sequel to the 2015 spinoff prequel and the fifth overall entry in the Despicable Me franchise, Kyle Balda directs with Steve Carell returning to voice the title character. Other performers in the booth include Pierre Coffin, Taraji P. Henson, Michelle Yeoh, RZA, Jean-Claude Van Damme, Lucy Lawless, Dolph Lundgren, Danny Trejo, Russell Brand, Julie Andrews, and Alan Arkin. How’s that for eclectic? I’m pretty sure this marks the first collaboration between Van Damme and Andrews.
This series has proved to be a financial windfall for its studio. All four previous pics have made over $250 million domestically. Minions took in $115 million out of the gate seven summers back with $336 million overall. Immediate predecessor Despicable Me 3 from 2017, while still a hit, wasn’t as high. It premiered with $72 million and ended up with $264 million.
Three years was previously the longest wait between films. The five year gap is a bit risky as some of its fans are simply older. We’ve also seen a very recent example of an animated disappointment with Pixar’s Lightyear.
That said, I suspect Gru will rise to the occasion with a four-day holiday haul in the $75-85 million range. I’m starting out on the lower end of that scale, but my estimate could go up in the days ahead.
Minions: The Rise of Gru opening weekend prediction: $86.4 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 