The Venice Film Festival kicks off on Wednesday this week. For this blogger, it means my Oscar speculation will kick into overdrive. You can anticipate a flurry of Oscar Watch posts starting September 1st and continuing throughout the month as the Telluride fest transpires over Labor Day weekend. Toronto is right behind beginning September 9th.
To put it all in perspective, the eventual Best Picture winner has premiered at this trio of festivals more often than not lately. Nomadland (last year’s victor) started off in Venice and won the Golden Lion, which is the equivalent to BP. The same narrative holds true for 2017’s The Shape of Water. 2018’s Green Book debuted at Toronto. 2016’s Moonlight premiered at Telluride. 2015’s Spotlight rolled out at Venice and 2014’s Birdman opened that festival. You get the idea.
So what are the highest profile titles jockeying for position? What are the movies that could become instant hopefuls for the Academy’s attention? I’m glad you asked. Let’s take a look, shall we?
The Power of the Dog
In 1993, director Jane Campion had her last major Oscar contender with The Piano. It won Best Actress for Holly Hunter, Supporting Actress for Anna Paquin, and Original Screenplay for Campion. She became the first female ever to be nominated for Best Director (losing that race and Picture to Steven Spielberg’s Schindler’s List).
Her latest is The Power of the Dog and it will be a mainstay on the festival circuit before its theatrical release in November that’s followed by an early December Netflix bow. Dog is, on paper, the film that prognosticators like me are looking at as an early favorite.
In my previous weekly rankings, I have Dog listed at #1 in Picture, Director, Actor (Cumberbatch), and Adapted Screenplay. Dunst and Plemons are, respectively, ranked second in Supporting Actress and Actor.
We will know quite soon whether it lives up to the hype.
Parallel Mothers
Pedro Almodovar’s latest will open the proceedings on Tuesday. The Spanish language drama stars Penelope Cruz and she could be a factor in what appears to be a potentially crowded Best Actress derby. Original Screenplay and Best International Feature Film could also be races where it contends. Just two years back, the auteur’s previous work Pain and Glory was nominated in the international competition and it nabbed Antonio Banderas a Best Actor nod.
Additionally, Cruz and Banderas star in the comedy Official Competition, which is also premiering here. It may also be one to keep an eye on.
Spencer
Speaking of that Best Actress race which features numerous players, that holds true with Spencer. Pablo Larrain’s biopic about Princess Diana may propel Kristen Stewart to her first nomination. Larrain directed Natalie Portman and she made the final five as Jackie from 2016. Will Stewart break through on the awards front after a series of post Twilight acclaimed roles? The answer is coming.
The Hand of God
Another Netflix property is this Italian drama from Paolo Sorrentino, whose 2013 effort The Great Beauty dominated the foreign language races at the Oscars and Globes. His latest could be another contender and I will be keeping an eye on whether it could branch out to Best Picture (like Roma and Parasite recently did).
The Card Counter
Paul Schrader’s last pic First Reformed received an Original Screenplay nod for its filmmaker. His latest crime drama features Oscar Isaac, Tiffany Haddish, and Willem Dafoe. I haven’t had this featured at all in my weekly predictions, but a splashy Venice rollout could alter that.
Dune
The Card Counter cannot claim the title of being Oscar Isaac’s most breathlessly awaited arrival. That would be Dune from Denis Villeneuve as the sci-fi epic is debuting out of competition. Originally slated for 2020, Dune could be a major awards threat in lots of categories (especially the technical ones). Whether it is Best Picture material will soon be established.
The Lost Daughter
Maggie Gyllenhaal directs Olivia Colman in the Netflix drama slated for late December. Colman has been nominated in two out of the three years at the big show. She won in 2018 for The Favourite in Best Actress and got a mention in supporting last year for The Father.
Last Night in Soho
Edgar Wright psychological horror experience features Thomasin McKenzie and Anya Taylor-Joy (coming off her heralded role on The Queen’s Gambit). The genre is not one usually geared to Oscar love, but you never know.
The Last Duel
Ridley Scott has not one, but two competitors seeking awards attention in 2021. The most obvious is House of Gucci. The other is this historical drama with Jodie Comer (another possibility in Actress), Matt Damon, Adam Driver, and Ben Affleck. We will soon know whether Scott has two pics in the mix.
And that’s just some of what I’m watching out for, folks! Get ready as the Oscar picture should become clearer in the coming days and I’ll be here to cover it…
My weekly Oscar predictions as we close out August have a bit of a Christmas Eve feel to them. Better yet, Film Festival Eve as Venice kicks off next week where cinematic presents will be laid out for consideration. The first 2021 Oscar predictions of September will come with reviews out for major contenders, most notably Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog which currently stands at #1 in Picture and Director.
That’s not all. When I post next Thursday, there should be buzz for Pedro Almodovar’s Parallel Mothers and Paul Schrader’s The Card Counter. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter, Edgar Wright’s Last Night in Soho, Paolo Sorrentino’s The Hand of God, Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel, and Denis Villeneuve’s Dune will follow shortly after that.
Same goes for Pablo Larrain’s Spencer. That could make Best Actress a little clearer due to Kristen Stewart’s work as Princess Diana. Miss Stewart makes her first appearance in my five hopefuls in that race. This is partly due to taking Kirsten Dunst from lead to supporting. It remains to be seen where Dunst ends up. That move and her inclusion in Supporting Actress knocks out Toni Collette in Nightmare Alley.
There are other changes:
In Best Picture, I continue to tinker with the 10 spot. This week, I have vaulted Paolo Sorrentino’s The Hand of God up 12 spots to get in the mix. Falling out is Stephen Karam’s The Humans. The switch-up also puts God in Original Screenplay over A Hero.
We have changes at #1 in both Actor and Supporting Actor. Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog tops lead and that slides Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) to 2nd. Bradley Cooper returns to first position in supporting for Soggy Bottom over Dog’s Jesse Plemons.
You can peruse all the activity below as Venice looms!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Soggy Bottom (PR: 5)
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
7. Dune (PR: 6)
8. West Side Story (PR: 9)
9. CODA (PR: 8)
10. The Hand of God (PR: 22)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Humans (PR: 10)
12. The French Dispatch (PR: 13)
13. Mass (PR: 11)
14. Belfast (PR: 14)
15. A Hero (PR: 12)
16. Flee (PR: 15)
17. Spencer (PR: 17)
18. Last Night in Soho (PR: 19)
19. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 16)
20. The Last Duel (PR: 25)
21. King Richard (PR: 18)
22. Parallel Mothers (PR: 21)
23. Passing (PR: 20)
24. Being the Ricardos (PR: 23)
25. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2)
3. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 8)
11. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 13)
12. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 11)
13. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 12)
14. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 10)
15. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Stephen Karam, The Humans
Fran Kranz, Mass
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3)
4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 6)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 7)
7. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 12)
8. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9)
9. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 11)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 8)
11. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 10)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 13)
13. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 14)
14. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 15)
15. Halle Berry, Bruised (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (moved to Supporting Actress)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
2. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1)
3. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 11)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6)
8. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7)
9. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10)
10. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 8)
11. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 12)
12. Steven Yeun, The Humans (PR: 9)
13. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 14)
14. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 13)
15. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead Actress)
3. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 4)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 3)
5. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5)
7. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6)
8. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 9)
9. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
10. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8)
11. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 12)
12. Olga Merediz, In the Heights (PR: 11)
13. Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos (PR: 14)
14. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog
Salma Hayek, House of Gucci
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom (PR: 3)
2. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2)
4. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 7)
7. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6)
8. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8)
9. Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 9)
11. Simon Helberg, Annette (PR: 13)
12. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall (PR: 10)
13. Reed Birney, Mass (PR: 12)
14. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
We are a mere two weeks away from the Venice Film Festival and that will be followed up in short order by Telluride and Toronto. It is then that a number of titles mentioned below will receive their first critical reactions. That will translate into whether their Oscar buzz is real or fleeting.
As for this week, there are some changes in the rankings and projections as follows:
We have ourselves a new #1 in Best Picture and Director and that is Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, supplanting Ridley Scott’s House of Gucci. The film is a mainstay on the upcoming festival circuit and it could well be Netflix’s prime contender.
The 10 spot in Best Picture has a change. I’ve soured a bit on Asghar Farhadi’s A Hero. While I strongly feel it will contend in Best International Feature Film, I’m changing it out for Stephen Karam’s The Humans – the cinematic version of his acclaimed play. It jumps 11 spots to get into the BP derby. The Humans also is now forecasted for Adapted Screenplay to the detriment of CODA.
Amir Jadidi’s performance in A Hero is removed from the top five in Best Actor with Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) taking the slot.
After viewing CODA, I believe Troy Kotsur (playing Marlee Matlin’s randy husband) could find a way into Supporting Actor. I don’t have him in the five, but Kotsur makes his first appearance in the race at #9.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 1)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Soggy Bottom (PR: 5)
6. Dune (PR: 6)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. CODA (PR: 8)
9. West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. The Humans (PR: 21)
Other Possibilities:
11. Mass (PR: 11)
12. A Hero (PR: 10)
13. The French Dispatch (PR: 12)
14. Belfast (PR: 13)
15. Flee (PR: 19)
16. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 16)
17. Spencer (PR: 15)
18. King Richard (PR: 14)
19. Last Night in Soho (PR: 22)
20. Passing (PR: 20)
21. Parallel Mothers (PR: 17)
22. The Hand of God (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Being the Ricardos (PR: 24)
24. Cyrano (PR: 18)
25. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blue Bayou
In the Heights
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 3)
3. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4)
4. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 8)
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 10)
12. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 11)
13. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 12)
14. Stephen Karam, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Fran Kranz, Mass (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers
Pablo Larrain, Spencer
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 5)
4. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 6)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 7)
8. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 8)
9. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9)
10. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 12)
11. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
12. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 11)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 14)
14. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 13)
15. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Halle Berry, Bruised
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7)
7. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 6)
8. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 5)
9. Steven Yeun, The Humans (PR: 12)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 11)
11. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9)
12. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 14)
13. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 10)
14. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 13)
15. Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom (PR: 15)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
2. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 4)
3. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 2)
4. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 3)
5. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: 12)
7. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8)
9. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 6)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog (PR: 9)
11. Olga Merediz, In the Heights (PR: 11)
12. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 13)
13. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 10)
14. Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos (PR: 14)
15. Salma Hayek, House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 3)
3. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom (PR: 2)
4. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9)
7. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 6)
8. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
9. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall (PR: 11)
11. Bradley Whitford, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 12)
12. Reed Birney, Mass (PR: 8)
13. Simon Helberg, Annette (PR: 15)
14. David Alvarez, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Film festival season is approaching with Toronto, Venice, Telluride, and more. The early days of September will assist in answering plenty of questions as to the Oscar viability of several pictures.
As for this mid August timeframe, we mostly wait. However, one contender’s chances are clearer than last week. The Aretha Franklin biopic Respect, as I suspected, will not play in Best Picture. Yet the raves for Jennifer Hudson keep me believing she could make the final five in what looks to be a crowded field. Hudson remains in the four spot. The many performances left to witness will eventually answer whether she remains.
There is some movement in the other categories:
CODA was one of the acclaimed titles at Sundance and it releases on Apple TV tomorrow. Widely regarded as a crowdpleaser, I’m feeling more hopeful that it makes the top ten in BP. To make room, I’ve removed another buzzed about Sundance effort – Mass. I’ll confess that Mass is a head scratcher for me at press time. The four main leads (Jason Isaacs, Ann Dowd, Reed Birney, Martha Plimpton) will apparently all be campaigned for in the supporting fields. Dowd seems the most assured to make it, but they all could. However, both Isaacs and Plimpton are being taken out of my predicted five.
That means Toni Collette for Nightmare Alley is in over Plimpton in Supporting Actress. It felt strange not to have at least one actor from Guillermo del Toro’s upcoming pic in the mix. That could also be Rooney Mara in the same race.
In Supporting Actor, taking out Isaacs puts Corey Hawkins (The Tragedy of Macbeth) in. I’ve also made a switch in the #1 position. Bradley Cooper has had it the first two weeks for Soggy Bottom and now it’s Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog.
The lead actor and screenplay derbies reflect the same five as last week.
Check out all the movement below! I’ll be back at it next week…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
6. Dune (PR: 5)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. CODA (PR: 11)
9. West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. A Hero (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
11. Mass (PR: 8)
12. The French Dispatch (PR: 13)
13. Belfast (PR: 12)
14. King Richard (PR: 16)
15. Spencer (PR: 14)
16. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 17)
17. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Cyrano (PR: 15)
19. Flee (PR: 18)
20. Passing (PR: Not Ranked)
21. The Humans (PR: 19)
22. Last Night in Soho (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Blue Bayou (PR: 20)
24. Being the Ricardos (PR: 23)
25. In the Heights (PR: 24)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
The Worst Person in the World
Annette
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
4. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8)
8. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 7)
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 12)
11. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 13)
12. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 11)
13. Fran Kranz, Mass (PR: 10)
14. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Joe Wright, Cyrano
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 4)
5. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 6)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 9)
8. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 7)
9. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10)
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8)
11. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 12)
12. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 11)
13. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 13)
14. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 15)
15. Halle Berry, Bruised (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10)
10. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 8)
11. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 11)
12. Steven Yeun, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 12)
14. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 13)
15. Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Michael B. Jordan, A Journal for Jordan
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 2)
3. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 4)
4. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 3)
5. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 5)
7. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 11)
8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 7)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog (PR: 10)
10. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 13)
11. Olga Merediz, In the Heights (PR: 9)
12. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8)
13. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 12)
14. Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Audra McDonald, Respect
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
2. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom (PR: 1)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 4)
4. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5)
5. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 3)
7. Richard E. Grant, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie (PR: 7)
8. Reed Birney, Mass (PR: 10)
9. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9)
10. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
As we await film festivals that will shed light on many of the pictures mentioned below, today brings us my second weekly outlook on the major Oscar categories.
So what’s happened since last Thursday? That House of Gucci trailer came out and it didn’t do anything to dissuade my feeling that it’s a contender. In fact, while I shouldn’t use trailers to judge, it was enough for me to put Jared Leto in my final five (taking out Idris Elba for The Harder They Fall).
In other developments:
A Hero is in my top 10 for Best Picture over Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast. The film also is in my projections for Original Screenplay to the detriment of Blue Bayou.
CODA (which I was very tempted this week to put in BP) makes the Adapted Screenplay cut over Dune.
The Director, Actress, Actor, and Supporting Actress fields remain the same – with some movement in the rankings.
By this time next week, we should have a good idea of where Jennifer Hudson’s performance in Respect stands since it releases next week. It remains in my five at spot four.
Finally, I didn’t have Matt Damon in Stillwater listed in my top 15 possibilities last week. Based on the film’s subpar box office performance and some comments that landed Damon in hot water, I don’t anticipate him surfacing at any point.
Check out all the activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Dune (PR: 5)
6. Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 10)
8. Mass (PR: 7)
9. West Side Story (PR: 8)
10. A Hero (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. CODA (PR: 12)
12. Belfast (PR: 9)
13. The French Dispatch (PR: 14)
14. Spencer (PR: 15)
15. Cyrano (PR: 17)
16. King Richard (PR: 20)
17. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 16)
18. Flee (PR: 13)
19. The Humans (PR: 18)
20. Blue Bayou (PR: 19)
21. The Last Duel (PR: 21)
22. The Worst Person in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
24. In the Heights (PR: 23)
25. Annette (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
Dear Evan Hansen
Last Night in Soho
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2)
4. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 7)
8. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10)
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. Fran Kranz, Mass (PR: 11)
11. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 14)
12. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 8)
13. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 12)
14. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 15)
15. Joe Wright, Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3)
3. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2)
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 4)
5. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 7)
7. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 8)
8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
9. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 12)
11. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 11)
12. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 13)
13. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9)
14. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 15)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 14)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10)
7. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 6)
8. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 8)
9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 11)
11. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 7)
12. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 13)
13. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 15)
14. Michael B. Jordan, A Journal for Jordan (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 2)
3. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 4)
4. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 5)
5. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
7. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 6)
8. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Olga Merediz, In the Heights (PR: 7)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog (PR: 9)
11. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 13)
12. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 11)
13. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 14)
15. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Regina King, The Harder They Fall
Sally Hawkins, Spencer
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 3)
4. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 4)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6)
7. Richard E. Grant, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie (PR: 7)
8. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall (PR: 5)
9. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Reed Birney, Mass (PR: 9)
11. Bradley Whitford, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Ben Mendelsohn, Cyrano (PR: 10)
13. Adam Driver, The Last Duel (PR: 12)
14. Simon Helberg, Annette (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Brendan Gleeson, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Al Pacino, House of Gucci
David Alvarez, West Side Story
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soggy Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mass (PR: 1)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4)
5. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 8)
7. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10)
8. Spencer (PR: 7)
9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 9)
11. Blue Bayou (PR: 5)
12. Belfast (PR: 6)
13. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. King Richard (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted Screenplay)
I can’t help myself. I keep doing my Oscar predictions earlier and earlier each year. Today marks the first edition of my ranked forecasts in the 8 biggest races: Picture, Director, the four acting competitions, and the two screenplay contests.
It probably stands to reason that the sooner you do projections – the more inaccurate they might be. Oh but it’s so very fun to speculate! I do like to put my initial rankings up before the Toronto, Venice, and Telluride Film Festivals make the picture more clear and we are only about a month from that. Those events will bring us early buzz on The Power of the Dog, Dune, Spencer, The Last Duel, The Humans, Parallel Mothers, Belfast, Dear Evan Hansen, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Last Night in Soho, and more.
This post comes about three weeks ahead of when I did this in 2020. That year, to say the least, was hard to figure out. In fact, many of the pictures and performers I had in my 2020 inaugural rankings were moved back to 2021 due to COVID delays. Think Dune, The French Dispatch, West Side Story, Respect, C’Mon C’Mon, Annette, and The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
So how did my first ranked predictions from 2020 pan out? My Best Picture guesstimates yielded three of the eventual nominees: winner Nomadland, Mank, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Nomadland started out of the gate at #2 (behind Mank). Three other contenders were listed under Other Possibilities – The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Minari. Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal were not mentioned.
2 of the 5 director nominees were correctly identified: winner Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) and David Fincher (Mank). None of the other hopefuls (Lee Isaac Chung for Minari, Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman, or Another Round‘s Thomas Vinterberg) were even in Other Possibilities.
In Best Actress, I initially identified 2 – winner Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) were Other Possibilities while Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman didn’t score a listing.
As for Actor, winner Anthony Hopkins (The Father) and Gary Oldman (Mank) made my first cut. I incorrectly had Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) projected here instead of Supporting Actor (which he won). **This is a good time to remind you all that some of the acting contenders thought to be in lead right now will switch to supporting and vice versa. As further evidence, I had Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey) predicted in supporting, but he contended here. I did not yet have Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) or Steven Yeun (Minari) on my radar.
Two Supporting Actress players were correctly called: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) and Olivia Colman (The Father) with Amanda Seyfried (Mank) in Other Possibilities. No mention for the winner Youn Yun-jung in Minari or Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.
Per above, Daniel Kaluuya’s work in Judas was slotted in lead, but he emerged victorious here. My Supporting Actor picks did get 2 of 5: Lakeith Stanfield in Judas and Sacha Baron Cohen for Chicago 7. The two others (Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami and Paul Raci in Sound of Metal) went unnoticed at the early stage.
Just one nominee in Original Screenplay got the initial mention – Chicago 7. I did have 3 others (winner Promising Young Woman, Judas, Minari) down for Other Possibilities while Sound of Metal wasn’t mentioned. And in Adapted Screenplay, I only rightly projected Nomadland. Winner The Father, One Night in Miami, and The White Tiger were other possibilities with no mention for Borat.
Whew. OK. I’m not going through all for 2019. However, I will say my results were better two years ago with my first picks (evidence of the uncertainty of last year). The quick rundown: I got 6 of the 9 nominees in Best Picture and identified the remaining three in other possibilities. In Director, it was 4 out of 5. For Actress – 4 for 5 with the other nominee listed sixth. Actor – 3 for 5 with the two others as possibilities. The weak spot was Supporting Actress – just 1 out of 5 with 2 others as possibilities. 2 for 5 in Supporting Actor with 2 others as possibilities. 3 for 5 initially in both screenplay races.
And now we come to 2021. Will I look back next year and be happy with the accuracy or shake my head? Hopefully a mix (that’s probably the best case scenario). In about two months, I will start predictions for all categories covering feature films and whittle BP from 25 to 15 hopefuls with all others going from a projected 15 to 10.
There already was some news from when I penned my early and unranked predictions last week. David O. Russell’s Canterbury Glass, with an all star cast led by Christian Bale and Margot Robbie, has reportedly moved to 2022. It was mentioned in numerous categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor – John David Washington) and it now waits its turn until next year. Same story for Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins and Blonde from Andrew Dominik.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Nightmare Alley
5. Dune
6. Soggy Bottom
7. Mass
8. West Side Story
9. Belfast
10. Don’t Look Up
Other Possibilities:
11. A Hero
12. CODA
13. Flee
14. The French Dispatch
15. Spencer
16. Tick Tick… Boom!
17. Cyrano
18. The Humans
19. Blue Bayou
20. King Richard
21. The Last Duel
22. Dear Evan Hansen
23. In the Heights
24. Last Night in Soho
25. Annette
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
3. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
4. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
5. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom
7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
8. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
10. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
11. Fran Kranz, Mass
12. Sian Heder, CODA
13. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee
14. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
15. Pablo Larrain, Spencer
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
5. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
7. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
8. Emilia Jones, CODA
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
11. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
12. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
13. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
14. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
15. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Will Smith, King Richard
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci
5. Amir Jadidi, A Hero
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!
7. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey
8. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
10. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
11. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
12. Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom
13. Adam Driver, Annette
14. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
15. Nicolas Cage, Pig
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass
2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
3. Martha Plimpton, Mass
4. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
5. Marlee Matlin, CODA
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruth Negga, Passing
7. Olga Merediz, In the Heights
8. Regina King, The Harder They Fall
9. Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog
10. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley
11. Judi Dench, Belfast
12. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho
13. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
14. Audra McDonald, Respect
15. Sally Hawkins, Spencer
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom
2. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
3. Jason Isaacs, Mass
4. Richard Jenkins, The Humans
5. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall
Other Possibilities:
6. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth
7. Richard E. Grant, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
The blog’s early look at the 2021 Oscar contenders arrives at Best Director. If you didn’t see the posts outlining my initial picks for the acting derbies, take a look here:
In 2020, my first estimates in the directorial field yielded 2 eventual nominees: winner Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) and David Fincher (Mank). The three others were not even mentioned: Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), and surprise contender Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round).
Here’s the players as I see it at this July juncture:
EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Other Contenders:
Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers
Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom
Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Leos Carax, Annette
Fran Kranz, Mass
Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
David O. Russell, Canterbury Glass
Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
That leaves only Best Picture and it will be posted in short order!
Ten days ago, Jon M. Chu’s In the Heights went into its premiere weekend as the first bonafide Best Picture contender of 2021. Sporting a Rotten Tomatoes rating of 96%, the musical (adapted from a play co-created by Lin-Manuel Miranda) was projected to gross around $20 million in its opening frame. And then reality happened.
The pic was a major box office disappointment and earned just $11.5 million out of the gate (landing at #2 behind the third weekend of A Quiet Place Part II). Even then not all hope was lost. With solid word-of-mouth and awards buzz, perhaps Heights would hold well in subsequent weekends.
And then reality happened again. Heights appears to have dropped to sixth place in its sophomore outing with a drop of over 60%. What a difference a week and a half can make. There’s really no positive spin for its box office performance. It’s simply very underwhelming. Furthermore, the bulk of publicity received for Heights in recent days was either for its disappointing numbers or controversy emerging from its casting choices (something for which Miranda issued an apology for).
At this juncture, it’s a legitimate question whether Heights is still a viable contender at the Oscars. Much of that could depend on if Warner Bros makes a robust effort to campaign for it. I would say its inclusion in the big categories is now iffy at best. This applies to Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Anthony Ramos in Actor (which was probably always a long shot), and Olga Merediz in Supporting Actress. Down the line categories such as Sound and Original Song are more questionable as well.
The studio could shift its focus to fall contenders including Denis Villeneuve’s Dune, Sopranos prequel The Many Saints of Newark, and King Richard with Will Smith. Bottom line: Heights isn’t finished in the Oscar derby, but it is hard to say that it’s not wounded.
As much as I want to predict Mel Gibson’s Santa Claus revenge tale Fatman in all categories based on its bonkers trailer, I shall refrain. However, there is more news to be discussed in my latest round of Oscar predictions.
Speaking of trailers, we got our first looks at two major contenders this week: David Fincher’s Mank (still holding in 1st place in Picture and Director and more) and News of the World from Paul Greengrass (with an impressive 10 predictions). Mank, by the way, leads all contenders with 12 and that takes over last week’s leader The Trial of the Chicago 7.
We also learned that Dune and No Time to Die have officially moved out of contention due to release date changes. I had Dune down for 8 nominations last week. I also listed the theme song from No Time to Die (performed by Billie Eilish) in first place for Original Song. These drops are reflected below.
Other developments:
Picture, Director, Actor, and Actress remain unchanged. I will note that French Exit will screen this weekend for critics and we will have a better idea as to Michelle Pfeiffer’s viability and if it could be a contender in other categories.
While Supporting Actor stays intact, I have moved Amanda Seyfried’s work in Mank in the Supporting Actress five over Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman.
With that, let’s get to the latest guesstimates!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
7. The Father (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Soul (PR: 10)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
12. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 13)
13. Ammonite (PR: 14)
14. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The White Tiger (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
4. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 4)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7)
8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
9. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)
10. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 9)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
7. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 7)
8. Lily Collins, Mank (PR: 8)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Abigail Breslin, Stillwater
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)
7. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 10)
8. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 8)
10. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 5)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
5. Soul (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 6)
8. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Stillwater (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
C’Mon C’Mon
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
8. French Exit (PR: 10)
9. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 9)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Over the Moon (PR: 2)
3. Wolfwalkers (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Predicted Nominees:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Connected (PR: 7)
8. Bombay Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Trolls World Tour (PR: 9)
10. Earwig and the Witch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rumble
Ride Your Wave
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Crip Camp (PR: 1)
2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 4)
3. Boys State (PR: 2)
4. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 3)
5. The Dissident (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
7. Totally Under Control (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 76 Days (PR: Not Ranked)
9. MLK/FBI (PR: 7)
10. Notturno (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spaceship Earth
John Lewis: Good Trouble
Miss Americana
On the Record
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. Another Round (PR: 6)
3. New Order (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
5. The Disciple (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Little Sister (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Wife of a Spy (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Atlantis (PR: 5)
10. A Sun (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ema
The Life Ahead
Young Ahmed
Memory House
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 10)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Ammonite
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 10)
8. Coming 2 America (PR: 6)
9. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ammonite (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 4)
4. News of the World (PR: 3)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
7. The Father (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
10. Tenet (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Mank (PR: 1)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
9. Emma (PR: 8)
10, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
No Time to Die
Wonder Woman 1984
Ammonite
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Soul (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 6)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
7. Over the Moon (PR: 9)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
9. Tenet (PR: 10)
10. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 7)
3. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 9)
5. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 3)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 6)
9. “Carried Me with You” from Onward (PR: 8)
10. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“See What You’ve Done” from Belly of the Beast
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 3)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
7. Rebecca (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Ammonite (PR: 6)
9. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
One Night in Miami
Tenet
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. Soul (PR: 3)
3. News of the World (PR: 7)
4. Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Respect (PR: 5)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
The Invisible Man
No Time to Die
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 2)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Greyhound (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 6)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)
8. Birds of Prey (PR: 10)
9. Free Guy (PR: 9)
10. Dolittle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Wonder Woman 1984
No Time to Die
That equates to the following numbers of nominations for features:
12 Nominations
Mank
10 Nominations
News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
6 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Nomadland, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
The Father, Mulan, Soul
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Minari, Over the Moon, Tenet
1 Nomination
Birds of Prey, Boys State, Coming 2 America, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, Giving Voice, Greyhound, Hillbilly Elegy, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, New Order, Night of the Kings, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Wolfwalkers
If you felt obligated to write out a 2020 movie release schedule in pencil lately, it would be decimated with cross outs and erasure marks. Quite frankly, it’s tough to keep up with for movie lovers. In the past few days, it’s become even more pronounced and it’s more evidence that theaters simply aren’t ready for tentpole releases.
This was evident in July when Christopher Nolan’s Tenet wildly underperformed stateside. It served as a signal to studios that it’s better to wait and most of the delays have moved into 2021. Dune, the eagerly awaited latest effort from Denis Villeneuve, is the latest push. Originally scheduled for November and then delayed to December, Warner Bros. (who put out Tenet) has now slated it for October 2021.
The Dune activity occurs just after the new 007 pic No Time to Die announced a new Easter 2021 date. It was originally meant to hit theaters in February of this year. This follows Black Widow moving to May 2021 (original date was May 2020) and that meant the MCU’s Eternals traveled from February 2021 to November 2021. And that was around the time Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story received a year long delay to Christmastime ’21.
Still following? Yeah, I know. So what’s left for 2020? In short, nothing soon except for cinematic table scraps like The War with Grandpa with Robert De Niro (this Friday) and Honest Thief with Liam Neeson (next Friday).
Pixar is scheduled to unveil Soul in November. We shall see if they decide not to go the Disney+ route like they did with Mulan and other titles. The Croods: A New Age is supposed to come out over the Thanksgiving holiday. And December still has heavy hitters like Wonder Woman 1984, Death on the Nile, Free Guy, and Coming 2 America.
The bottom line – who knows? Everything is tentative in these uncertain days. Streaming options will continue to increase. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tenet is available for a high price on such services in short order. For 007 fans and those awaiting Dune, there’s more time to anticipate.
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