Not to be confused with The Pope’s Sous-Chef or The Pope’s Orthopedic Surgeon, Sony Pictures gives us The Pope’s Exorcist on April 14th. Julius Avery (Overlord, Samaritan) directs the supernatural horror tale with Russell Crowe as the Pontiff’s chosen demon extractor. Costars include Daniel Zovatto, Alex Essoe, Ralph Ineson, and Franco Nero. ‘
This particular genre subsection has conjured up its share of pics in recent years. Titles like 2018’s The Possession of Hannah Grace and last fall’s Prey for the Devil managed $6.5 million and $7.2 million for their respective starts. 2014’s Deliver Us from Evil made just under $10 million. Meanwhile 2012’s The Possession and 2011’s The Rite hit $17 million and $14 million out of their gates.
Exorcist has competition from Renfield, the vampiric comedy with Nicolas Cage and Nicholas Hoult, premiering directly against it. Evil Dead Rises drops a week later. I think Crowe and company can gross north of $10 million, but I’ll say it falls under.
The Pope’s Exorcist opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million
Arriving smack dab in Hollywood’s version of midsummer is Ari Aster’s Midsommar next week. The horror pic is the filmmaker’s sophomore effort after his critically acclaimed debut Hereditary from last summer. Centered around a pair of couples who attend a mysterious Swedish festival that occurs every 90 years, the creepy flick stars Florence Pugh, Jack Reynor, William Jackson Harper, and Will Poulter.
Like Hereditary, Aster’s follow-up has garnered strong critical reaction with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 96%. Last June, Hereditary started off with $13.5 million with an eventual $44 million domestic gross. Reviewers liked it more than audiences did and word of mouth suggests that could apply to Midsommar.
It’s out on Wednesday to capitalize on the long July 4th holiday frame. A potential comp could be 2014’s DeliverUsFromEvil, another scary title that opened over the same weekend. Evil took in nearly $10 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday period with $15 million when adding Wednesday and Thursday. I’ll say Midsommar falls a bit under those numbers.
Midsommar opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my Spider–Man: FarFromHome prediction, click here:
This coming weekend, there’s bound to be lots of monkey business at the box office as Dawn of the Planet of the Apes opens. It looks on course to absolutely dominate the weekend and you can find my detailed prediction post on it here:
As I will talk about in just a minute, the Fourth of July holiday box office was unimpressive and that’s being kind. Dawn is the only new entry coming and all the holdovers should have drops ranging from high 30s to mid 50s. Current #1 and #2 Transformers: Age of Extinction and Tammy should suffer the largest drops.
And with that, I’ll predict the top six for the weekend:
1. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $77.2 million
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)
3. Tammy
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 50%)
4. How to Train Your Dragon 2
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 43%)
5. 22 Jump Street
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)
6. Earth to Echo
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million (representing a drop of 39%)
Box Office Results (July 4-6)
As mentioned, this was a bad Fourth of July at the movies. How bad? Adjusted for inflation, it’s the poorest performance in 27 summers. Ouch. Summer 2014 is currently running 20% behind last summer. Transformers: Age of Extinction held onto the top spot with $37 million, but it’s 63% drop is troubling and Extinction will certainly be the lowest domestic grosser of the franchise. It couldn’t match my $42.2M estimate. The robot extravaganza has earned $175 million so far.
Melissa McCarthy’s Tammy got off to a middling start with $21.5 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $33.3 million since its Wednesday debut. This is below my respective estimates of $27.3M and $42.9M. Bad reviews and negative audience reaction (a troubling C+ on CinemaScore) likely contributed to its so-so premiere and it shouldn’t have the strong legs that many summer comedies develop.
In third was 22 Jump Street in its fourth weekend with $9.8 million, just above my $8.9M prediction. The blockbuster sequel stands at $159 million.
Landing with disappointing results in fourth was the horror flick Deliver Us from Evil with just $9.7 million over the traditional weekend and $15.2 million since Wednesday. It fell short of my respective estimates of $13.1M and $20.6M. Like most titles in its genre, expect this one to fall fast next weekend.
How to Train Your Dragon 2 made $8.9 million in weekend #4 for firth place, above my $7.8M projection. The animated sequel has brought in lackluster results and stands at $140 million so far, well below expectations.
Another kiddie pic debuted in sixth as I predicted with Earth to Echo earning a muted $8.3 million over the weekend and $13.5 million since Wednesday. This is just slightly higher than my estimates of $8M and $12.3M, respectively.
Most years on the Fourth of July holiday weekend, we see a massive tent pole picture making its debut, but this year it’s different. Three new pictures – the Melissa McCarthy comedy Tammy, horror flick Deliver Us from Evil, and kiddie pic Earth to Echo all debut on Wednesday and will each attempt to compete with the sophomore weekend of Transformers: Age of Extinction. You can read my detailed predictions on the holiday newbies here:
While I’m predicting solid results for Tammy, OK results for Evil, and disappointing returns for Echo, it’s highly unlikely anything will manage to dislodge Transformers from the top spot. Therefore the Michael Bay robofest should be the first summer 2014 picture to stay #1 for two weeks straight.
And with that, my estimated top six for the fireworks frame (with five-day predictions for the new entries included):
1. Transformers: Age of Extinction
Predicted Gross: $42.2 million (representing a drop of 57%)
2. Tammy
Predicted Gross: $27.3 million ($42.9 million prediction from Wednesday to Sunday)
3. Deliver Us from Evil
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million ($20.6 million prediction from Wednesday to Sunday)
4. 22 Jump Street
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 44%)
5. Earth to Echo
Predicted Gross: $8 million ($12.3 million prediction from Wednesday to Sunday)
6. How To Train Your Dragon 2
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)
Box Office Results (June 27-29)
Transformers: Age of Extinction was able to reach the biggest opening weekend so far in 2014 with exactly $100 million (leading some rival studios to question the accuracy of that number). This was right in the range of $98.6 million projection. While this is certainly a fine opening, there is a very good chance Extinction could end up being the lowest domestic grosser of the series thus far.
Staying in the #2 spot was 22 Jump Street with $15.8 million (above my $14.2M prediction) and the comedy hit’s three-week total stands at $140 million. Animated sequel How to Train Your Dragon 2 was third in its third weekend with $13.2 million, right in line with my $13M estimate. The disappointing family flick has earned nearly $122 million and will fall far short of its predecessor’s $217M haul. Keeping with the sequel frenzy, Kevin Hart’s Think Like a Man Too dropped from first to fourth with a hefty 64% plunge and a gross $10.3 million (below my $13.8M prediction). Rounding out the top six were holdovers Maleficent with $8.3 million (I said $8.2M) and Jersey Boys with $7.7 million (I said $7.8M).
Horror flicks have not performed well as of yet in 2014 with failures such as Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, Oculus, and Devil’s Due all failing to make an impact with audiences. This Fourth of July weekend, Jerry Bruckheimer’s production company attempts to reverse that trend with Deliver Us from Evil.
Scott Derrickson, who made well-received horror pics The Exorcism of Emily Rose and Sinister, directs this tale of a New York cop (Eric Bana) who investigates demonic possession activities in the city. Edgar Ramirez, Olivia Munn, and Joel McHale (!) costar.
Horror films are historically tricky to predict. Some can make way more in their opening weekends that prognosticators like myself believe, but Evil seems to be flying somewhat under the radar. There’s also the fact that in the summer season – there’s a whole lot of competition out there. Transformers should still rule the box office over the holiday weekend. Ironically, Mark Wahlberg was originally attached to this project before dropping out, allowing Bana to come on board. Over the five-day weekend, it’s prospects of topping $20 million seem decent, though I wouldn’t be shocked if it falls even below that.
Deliver Us from Evil opening weekend prediction: $13.1 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $20.6 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)
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