Um Tae-hwa’s disaster pic Concrete Utopia has been doing brisk business in its home country of South Korea as it also played the Toronto Film Festival this week. Lee Byung-hun, Park Seo-joon, and Park Bo-young are among the cast.
The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% while many reviews aren’t overly effusive in their praise. South Korea has had an interesting recent history in the International Feature Film category at the Academy Awards. In 2019, the nation nabbed its first ever nomination with Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite. Not only did it win that race, but it became the first foreign entry to be crowned Best Picture.
Last year, Park Chan-wook’s Decision to Leave was widely expected to grab one of the five spots in IFF and be the only feasible competitor to All Quiet on the Western Front. While it made the shortlist, it was shockingly omitted from the quintet.
Utopia could make the cut and certainly the shortlist. Yet if voters decided to leave off Decision to Leave, this faces longer odds. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The BAFTAs, Britain’s version of the Academy Awards, airs this Sunday (February 19) and it can often serve as a preview for where the Oscars will go. That holds true in same races more than others like the acting derbies.
In the past decade, 32 of the 40 winners in Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor became Oscar recipients. That’s 8 out of the past 10 Actresses, 9 for 10 in Actor, 7 for 10 in Supporting Actress, and 8 for 10 in Supporting Actor.
It’s a different story for the grand prize. A mere 3 of 10 Best Film winners at BAFTA are BP victors at the Oscars – Argo, 12 Years a Slave, and Nomadland. The percentage goes up considerably for Director at 7/10.
I’m going to keep it simple here. I’ll give you the nominees and my predicted winner and a runner-up. Let’s get to it!
Best Film
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár
Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Director
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Predicted Winner: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Todd Field, Tár
Best Actressin a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Runner-Up: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)
Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis
Runner-Up: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everywhere All at Once), Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)
Predicted Winner: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Albrecht Schuch (All Quiet on the Western Front), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)
Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, The Quiet Girl, She Said, The Whale
Predicted Winner: Living
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Film
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red
Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Best Film Not in the English Language
All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Corsage, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: The Quiet Girl
Best Documentary
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Moonage Daydream, Navalny
Predicted Winner: Fire of Love
Runner-Up: Navalny
Best Casting
Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Triangle of Sadness
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Elvis
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Empire of Light, Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Elvis
Best Costume Design
All Quiet on the Western Front, Amsterdam, Babylon, Elvis, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Predicted Winner: Elvis
Runner-Up: Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Best Editing
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Make-Up & Hair
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Whale
Predicted Winner: The Whale
Runner-Up: Elvis
Best Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Predicted Winner:Babylon
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Batman, Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Babylon
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Special Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Outstanding British Film
Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Brian and Charles, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, See How They Run, The Swimmers, The Wonder
Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Aftersun
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Aftersun, Blue Jean, Electric Malady, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Rebellion
Predicted Winner: Aftersun
Runner-Up: Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
That equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of wins:
4 Wins
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2 Wins
Elvis
1 Win
Aftersun, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Fire of Love, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Tár, The Whale
It was a glorious performance for Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin with this morning’s Oscar nominations. Both pics were up everywhere they needed to be for everything to potentially win the big prize on March 12th.
There were also strong showings for All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, The Fabelmans, and Top Gun: Maverick. However, it’s fair to say that each missed a key race or two that would’ve helped for their Best Picture viability.
As far as my own showing, I went 79 for 105 in my projections. I’ll take it though it’s slightly under my 82/105 performance from the previous year. One bright spot: no 2 for 5’s as I’d experienced a couple of times in preceding years.
Let’s walk through each race one by one with initial thoughts, shall we?
Best Picture
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
How I Did: 8/10
No real shockers. The movies that I had listed 11th and 12th (Avatar and Women Talking) made it over my selections of Babylon and The Whale. I went a little bold omitting Water in the first place.
As hinted at, I’m seeing this as between Everything and Banshees with Fabelmans as a potential spoiler (and maybe Maverick if I’m feeling bold).
Best Director
The Nominees: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
How I Did: 4/5
The Daniels v. Spielberg is where this may come down to. All Quiet had a solid morning, but Edward Berger missing (I predicted him) likely eliminates it as a BP winner. Ostlund gets in instead.
Best Actress
The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 3/5
In just the last few days, there was an organic (?) campaign launched for Riseborough by plenty of famous faces. She was nowhere near the radar for the bulk of the season. Her inclusion might alter how campaigns look in the future. Williams (who was looking shaky) and Riseborough make it over my predictions of Viola Davis (The Woman King) and Danielle Deadwyler (Till). Both of their pics were shutout completely. As for who makes the podium trip, it’s either Blanchett or Yeoh.
Best Actor
The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
For most prognosticators, this came down to Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick vs. Mescal for the fifth slot. It wasn’t to be for a fourth Cruise nod. For Mescal and Nighy, it’s an honor to be in the quintet. The race is between Butler and Farrell and Fraser (who have all nabbed key precursors). FYI – this entire lineup is first-time nominees and 16 of the acting nominees are newbies (which is very high).
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 4/5
Hsu, who was my alternate, is in over Triangle‘s Dolly De Leon. If you’d told me De Leon’s movie would get Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay – I would’ve been even more confident she’d make it. With victories already at the Globes and Critics Choice, Bassett is the frontrunner.
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 4/5
Henry gets the unanticipated nod over my pick of Paul Dano in The Fabelmans (many had Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse projected here). This is, frankly, the simplest acting derby to call and it is Quan.
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
The expected five as the Banshees v Everything showdown could be a clue during the night as to what wins BP at the end of it.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking
How I Did: 3/5
Maverick and All Quiet over She Said (which was shut out) and The Whale. Considering Women Talking made it in the BP ten, it could get the gold in this race and this one only since it received the least amount of nods (2) for the BP hopefuls. As an aside, there’s always a screenplay contender that gets no other noms anywhere else. This year it was Glass Onion.
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red
How I Did: 4/5
Pinocchio should take this, but this marks its only nod (it was expected to contend for Song and some techs). I had gone with Netflix’s Wendell and Wild for the fifth spot over Netflix’s The Sea Beast.
Best International Feature Film
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, EO, The Quiet Girl
How I Did: 3/5
Here’s where there was a total surprise with Decision to Leave getting snubbed. I would’ve had it as the runner-up possibility to win over All Quiet (easily the favorite). I didn’t have Close or EO (though neither is unexpected). In addition to Decision, I also had Joyland.
Best Documentary Feature
The Nominees: All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, A House Made of Splinters, Navalny
How I Did: 4/5
Had Descendant instead of Splinters. There’s a path to victory for everything but Splinters in my view.
Best Cinematography
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Bardo, Elvis, Empire of Light, Tár
How I Did: 3/5
Top Gun: Maverick missing is baffling considering it was a major threat to win. It misses along with The Batman in favor of Bardo and Tár. I wouldn’t discount Empire for the victory though Quiet could make noise in this one.
Best Costume Design
The Nominees: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
How I Did: 4/5
Everything‘s over performance is evident. I had The Woman King instead. The first three alphabetically are your possible winners.
Best Film Editing
The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 3/5
In years past, getting an editing nod is often needed if you want to take BP. So it’s bad news for All Quiet and The Fabelmans. Banshees and Tár join the lineup in their place. Elvis, Everything, and Maverick all possibilities.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale
How I Did: 4/5
Had Amsterdam and not Quiet. Elvis or The Whale are most likely.
Best Original Score
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
How I Did: 3/5
Considering it made BP, I didn’t think Women Talking would miss. I also had Pinocchio but it’s All Quiet and Everything. This could be the sole Oscar for Babylon.
Best Original Song
The Nominees: “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
How I Did: 4/5
Had Pinocchio‘s “Ciao Papa” and not the Everything tune. Despite big names like Lady Gaga, Rihanna, and producer Diane Warren in the mix, “Naatu Naatu” has taken the precursors.
Best Production Design
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans
How I Did: 4/5
A rare occurrence as I had Everything projected and it didn’t make it. All Quiet materializes instead. This could be Elvis or maybe a second shot for Babylon.
Best Sound
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 4/5
The sound you hear when the envelope opens might be Maverick‘s only victory (now that Cinematography is impossible). I had EEAAO and not The Batman.
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 3/5
Had the wrong MCU pic with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and not Panther. All Quiet is also in and I had Thirteen Lives. This should be the Avatar trophy.
That means these movies ended up garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
9 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin
8 Nominations
Elvis
7 Nominations
The Fabelmans
6 Nominations
Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water
3 Nominations
Babylon, The Batman, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale
2 Nominations
Living, Women Talking
1 Nomination
Aftersun, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Blonde, Causeway, Close, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, A House Made of Splinters, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Quiet Girl, RRR, The Sea Beast, Tell It Like a Woman, To Leslie, Turning Red
So what’s next? Followers of the blog may recall that I will soon begin my “Case Of” posts. That’s 35 separate write-ups making the case for and against all contenders in Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. Stay tuned!
I have penned dozens and dozens of posts setting the stage. The time for chatter is over. Below you will find my forecast in all 20 feature film categories with an alternate picked in each.
I will have a recap up Tuesday evening recounting how I did with some initial thoughts on frontrunners to win.
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
The Whale
Alternate: Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Director
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Todd Field, Tár
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Alternate: Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Best Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Alternate: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Alternate: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actor
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
Alternate: Aftersun
Best Adapted Screenplay
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
She Said
The Whale
Women Talking
Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Wendell and Wild
Alternate: My Father’s Dragon
Best International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Decision to Leave
Joyland
The Quiet Girl
Alternate: Close
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Descendant
Fire of Love
Navalny
Alternate: Moonage Daydream
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Top Gun: Maverick
Alternate: The Fabelmans
Best Costume Design
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
The Woman King
Alternate: The Fabelmans
Best Film Editing
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
Alternate: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Amsterdam
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Score
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Women Talking
Alternate: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Original Song
“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Alternate: “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Production Design
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
Alternate: The Batman
Best Visusal Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Thirteen Lives
Top Gun: Maverick
Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front
And that means a final tally for these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:
9 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, The Fabelmans
6 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
The Whale
4 Nominations
Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Tár
3 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness
2 Nominations
Living, The Woman King, Women Talking
1 Nomination
Aftersun, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Amsterdam, Argentina, 1985, Blonde, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Joyland, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Quiet Girl, RRR, She Said, Till, Tell It Like a Woman, Thirteen Lives, Turning Red, Wendell and Wild
Five days ahead of the Academy Awards nominations, our friends across the pond have revealed their picks. The BAFTAs (Great Britain’s Oscars equivalent) take place March 13th with Richard E. Grant hosting.
After the long lists of potential contenders were revealed, it was an impressive showing for Edward Berger’s WWI epic All Quiet on the Western Front. Today’s nods solidified its status as a favorite of this branch with a terrific 14 nominations. In short, it showed up everywhere it could’ve with the exception of Best Actor.
While Quiet made noise, it was the opposite for Women Talking and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. Both were blanked. In particular, each were expected to contend in Adapted Screenplay (Talking is seen as a potential winner at Oscar). The Fabelmans only managed one mention. I projected that though not in the race where it materialized.
I went 83/119 on my forecasts. Let’s walk through each category with some quick takes.
Best Film
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár
How I Did: 4/5
No shockers here as Elvis got in over Triangle of Sadness. Given the performance by Quiet today, it may battle it out with Banshees (which did well this morning) and Everything for the grand prize.
Director
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
How I Did: 4/6
My runner-up Chan-wook making the cut was not a surprise. Prince-Bythewood getting in is. They’re in over Alice Diop (Saint Omer) who was my own surprise pick and Charlotte Wells (Aftersun). It’s worth noting that Aftersun had a rather subpar day. We already knew Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) was out since he didn’t make the long list. This might be Berger v. Daniels.
Actressk
Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 5/6
Deadwyler over Lesley Manville in Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. As projected, this is another high profile omission for Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans. Her Oscar hopes are shakier by the minute.
Actor
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)
How I Did: 5/6
McCormack unexpectedly pops up instead of Felix Kammerer – the one miss for All Quiet. Noteworthy that Tom Cruise couldn’t land here for Top Gun: Maverick (with a so-so haul of 4 tech nods).
Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)
How I Did: 4/6
The question here is whether Bassett keeps the victory streak alive or whether Condon, De Leon, or one of the others can disrupt a sweep. Curtis and Mulligan surface over my projected picks of Lashana Lynch (The Woman King) and Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion).
Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Albrecht Schuch (All Quiet on the Western Front), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)
How I Did: 4/6
Another call for Redmayne. He and Schuch join this sextet instead of Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness) and Brad Pitt (Babylon). Quan is the favorite.
Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
How I Did: 4/5
The sole nod for The Fabelmans is here and I thought Aftersun would be in the quintet instead. Will Banshees or Everything emerge?
Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, The Quiet Girl, She Said, The Whale
How I Did: 2/5
Ouch. As mentioned, no Glass Onion or Women Talking and I also had Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio listed. All Quiet, The Quiet Girl, and The Quiet Whale, errr just The Whale, were the trio I wasn’t counting on. Good luck selecting a winner here. I’m thinking Living at the moment.
Outstanding British Film
Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Brian and Charles, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, See How They Run, The Swimmers, The Wonder
How I Did: 8/10
The only race with 10 contenders, one would think Banshees (as the only Best Film nominee) is out front. I had Blue Jean and Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris and not See How They Run or The Swimmers.
Outstanding Debut a British Writer, Director, or Producer
Aftersun, Blue Jean, Electric Malady, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Rebellion
How I Did: 3/5
Malady and Rebellion over Emily and Wayfinder. Before this morning, I would’ve thought Aftersun was a slam dunk. It likely still takes this, but Grande could threaten given its over performance.
Film Not in the English Language
All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Corsage, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl
How I Did: 4/5
Had EO and not Corsage. The only way All Quiet doesn’t take this in a blowout is if it wins Best Film and the voters want to choose something else. That probably won’t occur, but if so, Decision to Leave is viable considering the directing nod.
Animated Film
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red
How I Did: 4/4
I won’t pat myself too hard on the back since the only category with a quartet wasn’t much of a challenge. Picking a recipient isn’t either as Pinocchio should prevail.
Documentary
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Moonage Daydream, Navalny
How I Did: 3/5
I admittedly went with a couple spoilers in Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song and The Ghost of Richard Harris. Fire and Navalny are present instead for what could be a preview of the Oscar five (or at least 4/5).
Casting
Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Triangle of Sadness
How I Did: 3/5
Chose Banshees and Fabelmans and not All Quiet (get used to hearing that) or Elvis.
Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Empire of Light, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 3/5
Had Athena and Tár as opposed to The Batman and Elvis.
Costume Design
All Quiet on the Western Front, Amsterdam, Babylon, Elvis, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
How I Did: 3/5
All Quiet and Amsterdam are suited for competition instead of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (a notable snub) and Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical.
Editing
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 4/5
Thought the Brits might select Moonage Daydream but it’s Banshees instead.
Make Up and Hair
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Whale
Didn’t have All Quiet or Matilda. Did have Amsterdam and Babylon.
Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Two of the year’s most acclaimed scores (Empire of Light, Women Talking) fall out with All Quiet and Everything in.
Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Batman, Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
How I Did: 2/5
Ouch Part II. Only correctly called Babylon and Elvis (the duo most likely to win). Incorrectly had Avatar: The Way of Water, Banshees, and Empire of Light.
Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 4/5
Tár in, The Batman out.
Special Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet in over Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore. Despite a meager haul for Avatar, it should manage a victory in this race.
For those keeping score, that means these pictures garnered these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front
10 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once
9 Nominations
Elvis
5 Nominations
Tár
4 Nominations
Aftersun, The Batman, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
3 Nominations
Babylon, Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Triangle of Sadness
2 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, She Said, The Woman King
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Amsterdam, Argentina, 1985, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Blonde, Blue Jean, Brian and Charles, Corsage, Electric Malady, The Fabelmans, Fire of Love, The Good Nurse, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Moonage Daydream, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Rebellion, See How They Run, The Swimmers, Till, Turning Red, The Wonder
I’ll have final predictions up shortly before the ceremony’s airdate!
Arriving five days before Oscar nominations are the British Academy Film Awards – commonly known as the BAFTAs. On January 6th, the long lists in each category were revealed. There were major surprises like Avatar: The Way of Water not being in the list of 10 for Best Film consideration (same goes for its maker James Cameron in Director). Perhaps the biggest shock was Steven Spielberg being omitted from the Directing race. That’s partly why I have The Fabelmans generating a grand total of 1 nomination.
This is a show that isn’t afraid to go their own way. In 2021, while all 5 Best Film contenders were also BP contenders with the Academy, none of the six Best Actress hopefuls scored an Oscar nod (I doubt that happens again). Only two of the six Actor nominees got the Academy’s consideration.
You know the drill. For each competition, I’m giving you my picks (nominees can be between 4 and 10 and mostly 5 and 6 depending on the race) and a runner-up. Let’s go!
Best Film
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Director
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Alice Diop (Saint Omer), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Charlotte Wells (Aftersun)
Runner-Up: Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Actress
Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Runner-Up: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Actor
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Felix Kammerer (All Quiet on the Western Front), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)
Runner-Up: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Lashana Lynch (The Woman King), Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)
Runner-Up: Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Original Screenplay
Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
Runner-Up: The Fabelmans
Adapted Screenplay
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, She Said, Women Talking
Runner-Up: The Whale
Outstanding British Film
Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Blue Jean, Brian and Charles, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Wonder
Runner-Up: Lady Chatterley’s Lover
Outstanding Debut a British Writer, Director, or Producer
Aftersun, Blue Jean, Emily, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Wayfinder
Runner-Up: Donna
Film Not in the English Language
All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Decision to Leave, EO, The Quiet Girl
Runner-Up: RRR
Animated Film
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red
Documentary
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Ghost of Richard Harris, Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song, Moonage Daydream
Runner-Up: Navalny
Casting
Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front, Athena, Empire of Light, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
Costume Design
Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Runner-Up: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Editing
All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Moonage Daydream, Top Gun: Maverick
Runner-Up: Aftersun
Make Up and Hair
Amsterdam, Babylon, The Batman, Elvis, The Whale
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
Original Score
Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking
Runner-Up: The Batman
Production Design
Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Empire of Light
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
Runner-Up: Thirteen Lives
Special Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, Top Gun: Maverick
Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in nominations:
11 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front
6 Nominations
Aftersun, Elvis
5 Nominations
Babylon, Empire of Light, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
4 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick
3 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, The Whale
2 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Blue Jean, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Moonage Daydream, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Woman King, Women Talking
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Amsterdam, Argentina, 1985, Athena, Blonde, Brian and Charles, Decision to Leave, Emily, EO, The Fabelmans (!), Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, The Ghost of Richard Harris, Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Quiet Girl, Saint Omer, She Said, Turning Red, Wayfinder, The Wonder
It has been two weeks since my last Oscar predictions and a lot has transpired since. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards aired. SAG nominations came out. So did the BAFTA shortlists and PGA and DGA contenders.
All of this has made the puzzle a little clearer. Yet the fact remains – Oscar will Oscar when noms are released in a week. This is my penultimate forecast. Final predictions will arrive this weekend. Tonight’s estimates are your last look at rankings. It will simply be the listed picks a few days from now with commentary and a runner-up projection in each feature film category.
Here’s the latest developments as we are almost at the end of the line:
The Whale rises as it is back in my top 10 BP nominees. Women Talking falls out. A similar scenario in Supporting Actress as The Whale‘s Hong Chau is in over Women Talking‘s Claire Foy. After victories at the Globes and Critics Choice, Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) vaults over Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) for the #1 slot in Supporting Actress.
On the other hand, I’m putting Austin Butler (Elvis) back in first over Brendan Fraser (The Whale). This is essentially a coin flip with Colin Farrell from Banshees as a legit spoiler.
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) returns to the directorial quintet and James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is out.
In Actress, Viola Davis (The Woman King) at last makes the cut with Margot Robbie (Babylon) dropping. That’s not the only news in this derby. I almost went with Ana de Armas (Blonde) instead of Davis. And there’s the recent development of Andrea Riseborough’s online campaign for the micro budget indie drama To Leslie. Numerous performers, including Cate Blanchett, have boarded the Riseborough bandwagon. Two weeks ago – she was on no one’s radar screen. Now the buzz is enough to put her in 8th.
You can read all the movement below and look for those FINAL predictions this weekend!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
6. Elvis (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Whale (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Babylon (PR: 11) (E)
12. RRR (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Women Talking (PR: 8) (-5)
14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 14) (E)
15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+3)
8. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Sandler, Hustle (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Menu (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 2) (-1)
4. She Said (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. White Noise (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)
3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6) (E)
7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)
9. Inu-Oh (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 4) (E)
5. EO (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saint Omer (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Bardo (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Quiet Girl (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joyland (PR: 9) (E)
10. Holy Spider (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. All That Breathes (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Navalny (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Territory (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Descendant (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)
8. Retrograde (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bad Axe (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Flight Home (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Janes
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tár (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Women Talking
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 2 (+1)
2. The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (E)
7. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Blonde (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emancipation (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nomnees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Women Talking (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-3)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (-1)
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 7) (E)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Good Afternoon” from Spirited (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-2)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elvis (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)
9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nope (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
6 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water
5 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Whale
4 Nominations
Babylon, Tár
3 Nominations
The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness
2 Nominations
Living, The Woman King, Women Talking
1 Nominations
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, Wendell and Wild
Airing only five days after the Golden Globes solidified some potential paths to Oscar glory, the Critics Choice Awards come our way on the CW tomorrow evening with Chelsea Handler hosting.
We have a number of feature film categories to pick and I’ll do so by forecasting a winner and a runner-up. I’m not going into details for these (frankly because I’m on a vacation this weekend), but a few quick questions to ponder:
Is this where Brendan Fraser (The Whale) gets a needed victory over Globe recipients Austin Butler (Elvis) or Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) to keep himself in the winner conversation? The same narratives apply to Everything Everywhere All at Once being named BP instead of Banshees and The Fabelmans. If Everything is going to make a stand, it should begin here and I’m projecting that it will. Will Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) begin a streak of trophies that the Globes started or will there be a mix of Supporting Actress honorees as we head toward Oscar?
I’ll have a recap up (probably Monday morning) with my thoughts, but here’s how I see this particular show shaking out!
Best Picture
The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, RRR, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking
PREDICTED WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Director
The Nominees: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Damien Chazelle (Babylon), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Sarah Polley (Women Talking), Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King), S.S. Rajamouli (RRR), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
PREDICTED WINNER: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Runner-Up: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Actress
The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
PREDICTED WINNER: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Runner-Up: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Actor
The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)
PREDICTED WINNER: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
PREDICTED WINNER: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
PREDICTED WINNER: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees: Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár
PREDICTED WINNER: The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, She Said, The Whale, Women Talking
PREDICTED WINNER: Women Talking
Runner-Up: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Acting Ensemble
The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Woman King, Women Talking
PREDICTED WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Women Talking
Best Young Actor/Actress
The Nominees: Frankie Corio (Aftersun), Jalyn Hall (Till), Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans), Bella Ramsey (Catherine Called Birdy), Banks Repeta (Armageddon Time), Sadie Sink (The Whale)
PREDICTED WINNER: Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Runner-Up: Frankie Corio, Aftersun
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red, Wendell and Wild
PREDICTED WINNER: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Best Comedy
The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Bros, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness, The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent
PREDICTED WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Foreign Language Film
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Close, Decision to Leave, RRR
PREDICTED WINNER: RRR
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Cinematography
The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Empire of Light, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
PREDICTED WINNER: Top Gun: Maverick
Runner-Up: Babylon
Best Costume Design
The Nominees: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Woman King
PREDICTED WINNER: Elvis
Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Film Editing
The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
PREDICTED WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Hair and Makeup
The Nominees: Babylon, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Whale
PREDICTED WINNER: Elvis
Runner-Up: The Whale
Best Production Design
The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
PREDICTED WINNER: Babylon
Runner-Up: Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Score
The Nominees: Babylon, The Batman, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár, Women Talking
PREDICTED WINNER: Babylon
Runner-Up: Women Talking
Best Song
“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing, “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise
PREDICTED WINNER: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Runner-Up: “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Everything Everywhere All at Once, RRR, Top Gun: Maverick
PREDICTED WINNER: Avatar: The Way of Water
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
That works out to the following movies garnering these numbers of wins:
5 Wins
Everything Everywhere All at Once
3 Wins
The Banshees of Inisherin
2Wins
Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans, RRR
1 Win
Avatar: The Way of Water, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking
It wasn’t just the Screen Actors Guild revealing their list of nominees today as the Directors Guild of America (DGA) put out the five filmmakers vying for their top prize.
First things first. The three pictures that I believe have the best shot at taking BP at the Oscars all saw their conductors brought to this stage. That would be the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans). This trio were all obvious ones to predict and that I did.
Yet I ultimately went 3 for 5. That’s because my picks of James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) and Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), makers of two popular commercial moneymakers, were left on the cutting room floor. Instead we got the surprising selection of Joseph Kosinski, maker of the year’s biggest moneymaker domestically with Top Gun: Maverick. I’ve only had Kosinski in my top 10 possibilities for the Academy on a couple of occasions. He’s never been in my high five.
The directing category at the Oscars usually match DGA on a 4 for 5 accuracy scale. You have to go back to 2009 to find the last time they matched 5 for 5. In other words, I wouldn’t rush to put Kosinski in the quintet.
My other miss was Todd Field, conductor of Tár. His inclusion was more anticipated and I had him as my runner-up.
Assuming we don’t get a total match, what’s the state of the Academy competition? The Daniels and McDonagh and Spielberg (despite the BAFTA snub) are probably safe and Field seems right up the Academy’s alley.
The fifth slot, while it could be Kosinski, is still available for Cameron or Luhrmann. Charlotte Wells (Aftersun) is beginning to get some ink. And we could absolutely still see a foreign director slide in like Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front. Longer shots in that vein are S.S. Rajamouli (RRR) and Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave).
Who got hurt by being left out today? Certainly Sarah Polley for Women Talking and Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness. Either one of them could have used this as a momentum boost. Same for Babylon‘s Damien Chazelle.
The DGA’s will be presented on February 18th and my winning projection will be made shortly beforehand.
In addition to the SAG Awards announcing their nominees on Wednesday, we also have the Director Guild of America (DGA) revealing its five contenders for Outstanding Directing in a Feature Film.
This is a race that usually matches the Academy’s eventual 5 nominees with 80% accuracy. In the past decade, there’s been a 4 for 5 correlation in 8 of those years. There hasn’t been a 5 for 5 match since 2009.
Even though BAFTA shockingly left Steven Spielberg off its shortlist last week, he should make the cut here for The Fabelmans. It would also be quite unexpected for Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert to miss for Everything Everywhere All at Once.
After that, it gets interesting. I do believe James Cameron is recognized for Avatar: The Way of Water. The DGA has recently named pics in the sci-fi genre that the Academy surprisingly ignored. Recent examples are Ridley Scott (The Martian) and Denis Villeneuve (Dune).
On the flip side, the DGA has left off foreign filmmakers that the Academy does recognize. This includes Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) and Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) in the preceding two cycles. That could make the odds longer here for Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), or S.S. Rajamouli (RRR) than at the Oscars.
My hunch is that the trio of Todd Field (Tár), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), and Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) are angling for the final two slots with Sarah Polley (Women Talking) as a potential spoiler. I’ve got Field in my Academy quintet right now but missing here.
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