Oscar Predictions: The Alto Knights

Robert De Niro plays the dual roles of real-life Mafiosos Vito Genovese and Frank Costello in The Alto Knights, premiering this weekend. The crime drama reunites the star with Barry Levinson, who directed him in Sleepers, Wag the Dog, and The Wizard of Lies. Costars include Debra Messing, Cosmo Jarvis, Kathrine Narducci, and Michael Rispoli.

Critics are not singing Alto‘s praises. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 39% with Metacritic at 47. The March release date should’ve been a tipoff that De Niro won’t be receiving his ninth (or tenth) acting nominations. Same goes for any other categories. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Alto Knights Box Office Prediction

Robert De Niro pulls double duty as real-life mobsters Vito Genovese and Frank Costello in The Alto Knights on March 21st. The crime drama from director Barry Levinson rolls into approximately 2500 venues with Debra Messing, Cosmo Jarvis, Kathrine Narducci, and Michael Rispoli in the supporting cast. Nicholas Pileggi, who wrote the source material for De Niro’s classic GoodFellas, penned the screenplay.

Warner Bros isn’t putting much marketing muscle behind this. Originally slated for February of last year, this is Levinson’s first theatrical project since the 2015 Bill Murray flop Rock the Kasbah. He did direct his star in HBO’s The Wizard of Lies back in 2017. Though De Niro is back in his most known genre, I’ll say Alto struggles to even hit $5 million as I analyze this.

The Alto Knight opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million

For my Snow White prediction, click here:

Snow White Box Office Prediction

Bros Box Office Prediction

Billing itself as the first gay rom com from a major studio and featuring an all LGBTQ+ main cast, Universal Pictures releases Bros on September 30th. Nicholas Stoller (director of successful comedies Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Neighbors) is behind the camera with Judd Apatow producing. Billy Eichner of Billy on the Street fame stars alongside Luke Macfarlane. The supporting cast includes Ts Madison, Monica Raymund, Guillermo Diaz, Guy Branum, Amanda Bearse, Jim Rash, Dot-Marie Jones, Bowen Yang, Harvey Fierstein, and Debra Messing.

While this particular humorous tale is making some history, it’s rare nowadays to find any comedy getting a wide release (at least one that’s not animated or filled with action). Bros premiered at the Toronto Film Festival earlier this month to glowing reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 94%.

Prognosticators have the range here at $10-15 million. That sounds reasonable and I suspect it’ll start out at the middle of that spectrum. It’ll likely have to settle for a second place showing behind horror pic Smile. However, I could see this legging out well when word-of-mouth gets out. As an aside, I saw Bros at TIFF and can confirm it should be quite the crowdpleaser.

Bros opening weekend prediction: $12.1 million

For my Smile prediction, click here:

Smile Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Bros

Bros has made quite the splash in its premiere at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its September 30th stateside rollout. This is the first rom com to feature a primarily LGBTQ+ cast. Nicholas Stoller, who’s helmed successful genre fare like Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Neighbors, directs. Billy Eichner and Luke Macfarlane are the lead couple with a supporting cast including Ts Madison, Monica Raymond, Guillermo Diaz, Guy Branum, Amanda Bearse, Bowen Yang, and Debra Messing.

Early word out of Canada is that this is an entertaining and alternately sweet and raunchy romp (something I can confirm having been at the world premiere last night). The Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at 89%. I’m not sure Bros is as much an Oscar player (where there’s a comedic allergy) as it is a Globes contender. Since they differentiate between Drama and Musical/Comedy, I could easily see the Hollywood Foreign Press nominating this for Best Picture and for Eichner in Best Actor.

That said, I wouldn’t say its Academy hopes are completely dashed. There’s usually a lone screenplay nominee that receives no other nods and Stoller and Eichner’s original screenplay could fit that particular bill. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Searching Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (08/23/18): Today’s estimated screen count of just 1100 for Searching has caused to revise down from $9.4 million to $7.1 million

Following a buzz worthy premiere earlier this year at the Sundance Film Festival, thriller Searching opens wide next weekend. The pic casts John Cho (Harold from Harold and Kumar, Sulu from the Star Trek franchise) as a father whose daughter goes missing. What makes this unique is that the film takes place almost entirely on a computer screen as he frantically attempts to locate her. Debra Messing, Michelle La, and Sara Sohn costar. Aneesh Chaganty directs.

The film opens in limited release on August 24th in just 9 theaters, with a nationwide expansion over Labor Day weekend. When Searching played at Sundance in January, it did so to solid critical notices and it stands at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes. I could see this having a decent start (considering its low budget) in the high double digits low double digits with the possibility of legging out solidly based on word-of-mouth.

Searching opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million (Friday to Monday estimate)