Fifty Shades Darker Box Office Prediction

Two years ago, the film version of the E.L. James novel Fifty Shades of Grey made a killing in theaters. This prompted the back to back shooting of second and third sequels Fifty Shades Darker and Fifty Shades Freed. Next weekend, Darker hits screens and hopes to keep the momentum going.

Dakota Johnson and Jamie Dornan are back in the roles of Anastasia Steele and Christian Grey as their, shall we say, unique love life is further explored. Costars include Marcia Gay Harden, Kim Basinger, Luke Grimes, and Rita Ora. James Foley takes over directorial duties from Sam Taylor-Johnson (Foley will also helm the third installment out in February 2018).

The initial pairing of these kinky leads led to a box office bonanza in February 2015 when Grey took in an astonishing $85 million in its first weekend with an eventual domestic haul of $166 million.

Early tracking suggests Darker is highly unlikely to compete with that opening frame gross. In fact, it’s been speculated that this follow-up may only earn about half that number. This sounds about right. While Grey easily took the #1 spot out of the gate, this opens against The Lego Batman Movie and probably won’t whip that serious competition. I’ll say Darker gets to the mid 40s for its start, which is still pretty solid considering its reported $55M budget.

Fifty Shades Darker opening weekend prediction: $44.8 million

For my The Lego Batman Movie prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/02/the-lego-batman-movie-box-office-prediction/

For my John Wick: Chapter 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/02/john-wick-chapter-2-box-office-prediction/

How to Be Single Movie Review

How to Be Single is about four single gals finding their way in the Big Apple and if that sounds like “Sex and the City”, you wouldn’t be wrong. There’s Alice (Dakota Johnson), our central Carrie character. Robin (Rebel Wilson) is the inappropriate Samantha like friend. Lucy (Alison Brie) is the Charlotte-ish hopeless romantic who’s constantly trolling dating sites for true love. And Meg (Leslie Mann) is the career woman (and Alice’s older sister) whose got it together, but realizes she needs a baby. Kind of like Miranda.

Alice is just embarking on her first dip into the single pool when she breaks up with her longtime boyfriend and sees what NYC has to offer. It includes a bartender (Anders Holm) that has the playa life down cold and a sweet widower and dad (Damon Wayans Jr.) still getting over his wife’s death. There’s also the ex-flame (Nicholas Braun) who keeps turning up. Truth be told, none of these relationships are terribly interesting or well-written and Dakota Johnson still seems to be struggling to infuse much personality into her performances. This is also a problem that plagued Fifty Shades of Grey, which was far more dreadful than this.

If anything, How to Be Single is just kind of dull and conventional. It sold itself as a raunch fest, but it’s not. My favorite moments involved Mann and her earnest younger boyfriend (a funny Jake Lacy), yet the script never succeeds in juggling its separate plot lines. More of those characters might have worked. Maybe. The screenwriters might have figured out a way to make them tiresome, too.

** (out of four)

 

How to Be Single Box Office Prediction

One year ago, Dakota Johnson became a huge star over President’s Day Weekend when Fifty Shades of Grey made an astounding $85 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of that frame. Now she’s back on screen on the same weekend with raunchy rom com How to Be Single alongside costars Rebel Wilson, Alison Brie, and Leslie Mann.

The film hopes to capitalize on Johnson and Wilson’s drawing power and ushering in a sizable female audience (while their male counterparts could be distracted with Deadpool or Zoolander No. 2). It also doesn’t hurt that Valentine’s Day falls on Sunday and it could perform well that day.

Single will still be lucky to gross a fourth of the business that Grey did when it spanked all competition last year. That said, I believe it could actually challenge the Zoolander follow-up for #2 (while Deadpool rules the charts). I’m putting it just slightly below what I believe that comedy sequel will do.

How to Be Single opening weekend prediction: $18.7 million

***Please note this prediction is for the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and not the full Friday to Monday President’s Day Weekend

For my Deadpool prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/03/deadpool-box-office-prediction/

For my Zoolander No. 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/03/zoolander-no-2-box-office-prediction/

Black Mass Movie Review

Scott Cooper’s Black Mass features a remarkable performance by Johnny Depp in a rather unremarkable telling of a fascinating true life gangster tale. Taking place over a number of years starting in the mid 1970s, Mass concentrates on the Boston reign of James “Whitey” Bulger, a notorious crime kingpin who was able to evade the law due to his status as an FBI informant. Much of his leeway is due to his friendship dating from childhood with agent John Connolly (Joel Edgerton). Their union allows Bulger to roam the Bah-ston streets freely while giving up info that has the added benefit of eradicating his North Side Mob enemies. Connolly’s longtime connection leaves him either oblivious to who Whitey really is or perhaps a willful co-conspirator.

The film is told in a predictable flashback style as Whitey’s former associates are being questioned by authorities. For anyone who’s watched the news in the last few years, you’ll probably know the real Bulger successfully was a very wanted fugitive for quite a while. We don’t really become acquainted with these witnesses or the law enforcement agents outside of Connolly, but there’s lots of familiar faces playing them. On the good guy side, we have Kevin Bacon, Corey Stoll, and David Harbour (who is afforded a chilling dinner table scene with the star). Whitey’s henchman are played effectively by Rory Cochrane and Jesse Plemons. Benedict Cumberbatch’s role as Whitey’s politician brother is also underwritten and Dakota Johnson has a brief role as the criminal mastermind’s first wife. The best bit part belongs to Peter Sarsgaard as a coked out associate mixed up with Bulger’s corrupt involvement in World Jai Alai. That subplot, by the way, practically begs for its own feature if done right. Edgerton’s work is commendable and convincing as we slowly learn the dynamics of his relationship with the informant he’s known for decades and the ties that bind them.

Yet this is unquestionably the Johnny Depp Show. His menacing performance, with his giant baby blues and slicked back receding mane, reminds us of just how terrific this man can be. Depp’s trademark eccentricities are on display, but they feel necessary in service to the role he’s playing and not just present for the sake of being weird. It’s something that downgraded recent performances from him and his intense persona here is a breath of fresh and scary air. Truth be told, though, the moments here when Depp’s Bulger is terrorizing his associates are often the only scenes that generate real excitement.

That said, true story or not, little else feels fresh about Black Mass. We’ve seen a number of similar genre tales (some set in Boston) mingling the worlds of crime, law, and politics with greater effectiveness. One that immediately springs to mind is Scorsese’s The Departed, in which Jack Nicholson plays a more fictionalized version of Bulger. Many of the plot points that show up in Mass are contained in The Departed and it’s far more fascinating in the latter. That Boston gang drama earned Best Picture. Black Mass earns credit for allowing Depp to make this role a memorable one. For that reason alone, it’s probably worth a look for his many fans even if the material surrounding it is familiar and a little tiresome.

**1/2 (out of four)

Black Mass Box Office Prediction

Riding a wave of positive buzz generated from film festivals over the weekend, Scott Cooper’s gangster pic Black Mass rolls out in theaters next Friday and the results could be impressive. A true life story focusing on notorious Boston crime kingpin Whitey Bulger, Johnny Depp plays the title character and it’s nabbed him some of the best reviews he’s had in years. There’s even Oscar talk happening, for Depp and possibly the film itself.

The stellar supporting cast includes Joel Edgerton, Benedict Cumberbatch, Kevin Bacon, Dakota Johnson, Adam Scott, Peter Sarsgaard, and Corey Stoll. Mass is currently at a pleasing 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. Most importantly, the pic has been well marketed and represents a real choice for adults after the summer blockbusters are now fading.

While the Maze Runner sequel may capture the attention of younger viewers, I look for Black Mass to have a very healthy start. In fact, I believe the chances of it over performing are greater than the alternative. I think it could exceed $30 million out of the gate, but I’ll put it just under.

Black Mass opening weekend prediction: $27.9 million

 

Fifty Shades of Grey Movie Review

I went into Fifty Shades of Grey with the same open minded attitude that its central character Anastasia Steele (Dakota Johnson) goes into with her unconventional relationship with Christian Grey (Jamie Dornan). I was completely unfamiliar with the source material, though certainly aware of the wild popularity of the E.L. James novel it’s based upon. And I knew the breathless anticipation of its fans due to their love of the book. I’ve heard some writers claim that this film adaptation improves on the novel and I’m skeptical. 1) That’s normally not the case and 2) It must be a really bad book.

Fifty Shades is essentially a soft core porn with higher production values and admittedly lovely cinematography. The soundtrack is decent too. This is where my praise ends. The picture is also a boring and overlong melodrama with subpar acting and a one note screenplay that utterly fails to generate any genuine interest in the leads.

Anastasia is an about to be college grad majoring in English literature who meets Christian, a wealthy business magnate. Sparks fly in short order and she soon learns that his sexual tastes lie in the world of sadomasochism and bondage. Not only is Anastastia not accustomed to that world, she’s still a virgin. This sets off a crisis of conscience for Ms. Steele that goes on and on and interminably on. One minute she’s into it. The next she isn’t. Christian does what he can to get her into it while yawningly explaining his troubled backstory. We meet both of their families who add nothing. The next crisis of conscience arrives. Tears flow. Beyoncé song. Sex scene. Repeat.

Even when certain films or novels become cultural phenomenons, which this is, and I don’t enjoy them – I can usually understand why they became so popular. I’m stumped with Fifty Shades of Grey. As mentioned, there’s little that separates it from a Cinemax flick that airs at two in the morning. At least those pics know they’re trash. Perhaps some roles will come Johnson and Dornan’s way to show their capabilities but we don’t see it here. For all the talk about punishment in the two hours of this movie, we the audience receive the lion’s share of it. Not in a good way either.

* (out of four)

Fifty Shades of Grey Box Office Prediction

This President’s and Valentine’s Day weekend, Fifty Shades of Grey is expected to capture the full attention of many moviegoers, especially the female audience. Based on the E.L. James phenomenon of a bestseller, Sam Taylor-Johnson directs the film adaptation with relative unknown actors Dakota Johnson as Anastasia Steele and Jamie Dornan as Christian Grey. With its well known source material, this erotic drama should whip all competitors and clamp down on the #1 spot. The figure of over $50 million out of the gate are probably safe words for how this will perform.

Universal Pictures is shrewdly releasing the project on Valentine’s weekend and there are already two sequels reportedly in the works. While Shades is unlikely to approach the all time February opening of The Passion of the Christ at $83 million, it could flirt with the $69 million #2 of the month opening that was last year’s LEGO Movie. It might not quite get there, but it should surpass Hannibal’s $58 million debut to overtake the number three record domestic haul for February.

I’ll predict Fifty Shades of Grey gets off to a very healthy start with its legions of mostly female fans. It may not hold up too well in subsequent weekends, but with its smallish $40 million budget, it won’t matter much.

Fifty Shades of Grey opening weekend prediction: $63.1 million

For my Kingsman: The Secret Service prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/07/kingsman-the-secret-service-box-office-prediction/