Tag: Curry Barker

99th Academy Awards Predictions: July 5th Edition

Happy 250th birthday weekend, America! And what better way to celebrate than with fresh Oscar predictions now that we’ve surpassed the midway point of 2026. That means I’m expanding my forecasts from 8 categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, the two screenplays contests) to all 21 races covering feature-length motion pictures.

This is the first glimpse at how many overall nominations I believe the hopefuls will generate. It arrives approximately two months before the fall festival season (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) kicks into gear. That trio of fests will undoubtedly alter the landscape of contenders and pretenders.

When I do my next predictions, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will be out. We will have a much better ide whether it deserves the perch atop Best Picture and Director and elsewhere. As soon as reviews drop, look for my individual Oscar Predictions post with the next full update likely arriving on July 19th.

I’ve put Inde Navarrette’s work in Obsession back in lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress. The studio could place it in either as we await word on their strategy. As of now, I feel her performance could materialize in both races. I’m also placing all performers from The Black Ball in supporting until that is clarified.

I’m keeping my BP listings at 25 and the seven top line races that I’ve previously covered at 15 possibilities. For the other competitions, I am listing 10 possibilities.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. All of a Sudden (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Behemoth! (PR: 16) (+4)

13. The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)

14. A Place in Hell (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Fatherland (PR: 15) (-1)

17. The Invite (PR: 17) (E)

18. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)

20. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (E)

21. Michael (PR: 24) (+3)

22. Josephine (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

24. Jack of Spades (PR: 22) (-2)

25. Werwulf (PR: 18) (-7)

Dropped Out:

Saturn Return

Club Kid

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (E)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Penélope Cruz, Bunker

Zendaya, The Drama

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)

7. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (E)

11. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 13) (E)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball – moved to Supporting Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (E)

12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (E)

14. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to lead Actress)

Gemma Chan, Josephine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 13) (+4)

10. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actor

15. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Milo Quifes, The Black Ball

Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Obsession (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)

7. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Club Kid (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Primetime (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Fatherland (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)

15. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturn Return

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Invite (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Wildwood (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Minotaur (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A Long Winter (PR: 14) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball

2. Fjord

3. All of a Sudden

4. Minotuar

5. Coward

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland

7. Possible Love

8. Mimesis

9. Rose

10. The Beloved

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood

2. Toy Story 5

3. Ray Gunn

4. Tangles

5. Hoppers

Other Possibilities:

6. In Waves

7. Forgotten Island

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom

9. Iron Boy

10. Minions & Monsters

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem

2. Nuisance Bear

3. To Hold a Mountain

4. The History of Concrete

5. When a Witness Recants

Other Possibilities:

6. American Doctor

7. One in a Million

8. Time and Water

9. Rehearsals for a Revolution

10. Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Wild Horse Nine

4. Digger

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. Fjord

7. The Debut

8. Dune: Part Three

9. Cry to Heaven

10. Behemoth!

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Dune: Part Three

4. The Black Ball

5. Digger

Other Possibilities:

6. Cry to Heaven

7. Fatherland

8. Werwulf

9. Disclosure Day

10. Jack of Spades

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Sense and Sensibility

4. Cry to Heaven

5. Dune: Part Three

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2

8. Jack of Spades

9. Wuthering Heights

10. I Love Boosters

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Digger

4. Project Hail Mary

5. Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three

7. Cry to Heaven

8. Fjord

9. Obsession

10. Behemoth!

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger

2. Werwulf

3. The Odyssey

4. Clayface

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball

7. Dune: Part Three

8. Cry to Heaven

9. The Bride!

10. Madden

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Project Hail Mary

4. Disclosure Day

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three

7. Digger

8. Wild Horse Nine

9. Wildwood

10. The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5

2. TBD from The Black Ball

3. TBD from The Debut

4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2

7. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights

8. TBD from Hexed

9. “Save the Day” from Hoppers

10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Dune: Part Three

4. The Black Ball

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger

7. Werwulf

8. Jack of Spades

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

10. Backrooms

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. The Odyssey

3. Project Hail Mary

4. The Black Ball

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. Disclosure Day

7. Cry to Heaven

8. Digger

9. Werwulf

10. Obsession

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. Project Hail Mary

3. The Odyssey

4. Godzilla Minus Zero

5. Whalefall

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday

7. Disclosure Day

8. Wildwood

9. The End of Oak Street

10. The Sheep Detectives

And that works out to my inaugural tally showing these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Black Ball, The Odyssey

10 Nominations

Digger, White Horse Nine

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

6 Nominations

Dune: Part Three, Fjord

5 Nominations

The Debut

4 Nominations

Cry to Heaven

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

Clayface, Coward, Disclosure Day, Godzilla Minus Zero, The History of Concrete, Hoppers, The Invite, Minotaur, Nuisance Bear, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Werwulf, Whalefall, When a Witness Recants. Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: June 28th Edition

As we move closer to knowing whether Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey deserves its placeholder #1 rankings in Best Picture and Director, we have seen some new trailers for consideration in the two weeks since my last update. I have said that you can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but we can look for clues about who the studio will focus on.

Jesse Eisenberg’s follow-up to A Real Pain (which won Kieran Culkin a Supporting Actor Oscar) is not titled No One Cares (which was rumored to be a working name). The first preview reveals it is called The Debut with hints that it’s a somewhat of two-hander between Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti. That said, I still have Halle Bailey listed as a possibility in Supporting Actress.

We got our first glimpse of Georgia Oakley’s Sense and Sensibility with Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles vying for noms. And we witnessed a Digger promotional ad that certainly indicated the studio will be all in on Tom Cruise.

Also in the past two weeks, Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day has proven to be a box office disappointment. In my estimation, its chances in BP and Emily Blunt in Best Actress have gone down.

Toy Story 5 also opened and while reviews were fine, many critics deemed it the weakest of the quintet. Unlike Toy Story 3 and like Toy Story 4, it should reserve a slot in Best Animated Feature but not Best Picture.

Finally, The Invite from Olivia Wilde opened in limited fashion before a nationwide rollout in July. Word-of-mouth is strong and I’m beginning to think it could at least manage an Adapted Screenplay nod… if not more.

You can read all the movement below including a new #1 in Best Actress and some serious shifts in Supporting Actress!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Place in Hell (PR: !3) (+2)

12. The Social Reckoning (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+2)

14. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Fatherland (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Behemoth! (PR: 17) (+1)

17. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

18. Werwulf (PR: 18) (E)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 20) (+1)

20. Disclosure Day (PR: 14) (-6)

21. Josephine (PR: 21) (E)

22. Jack of Spades (PR: 19) (-3)

23. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Michael (PR: 23) (-1)

25. Club Kid (PR: 25) (E)

Dropped Out:

Being Heumann

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (E)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)

15. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Robert Eggers, Werwulf

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR 8) (+1)

8. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: 14) (E)

15. Zendaya, The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Guitarricadelfuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Jordan Firstman, Club Kid

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-7)

11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Elizbeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (E)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+1)

9. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Milo Quifes, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tom Holland, The Odyssey

Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven

Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Obsession (PR: 6) (E)

7. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (E)

8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (E)

9. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (E)

11. Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Fatherland (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Primetime (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Saturn Return (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Drama

Disclosure Day

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Invite (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (E)

12. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)

13. Minotaur (PR: 15) (+2)

14. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tony

Oscar Predictions: Leviticus

In a summer dominated by one massive low-budget horror success story, Leviticus is quietly making its own impression. The Australian coming-of-age supernatural tale marks the directorial debut of Adrian Chiarella. Joe Bird and Stacey Clausen headline with a supporting cast including Jeremy Blewitt, Ewen Leslie, and Mia Wasikowska. The film premiered at Sundance back in January with Neon snatching up stateside distribution rights for $5 million.

Out this weekend on just over 1000 screens, Leviticus might make close to that pickup tag right away (and outgross the higher profile The Death of Robin Hood). Mixing a queer love story with religious overtones and horror elements, critics have been praising Chiarella’s first feature. Rotten Tomatoes is at 93% with an 83 on Metacritic.

I could see the Indie Spirit Awards paying attention, but the Academy could be a stretch unless Neon pushes a campaign in Original Screenplay. I suspect Oscar voters will instead look to Obsession to honor the genre. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

99th Academy Awards Predictions: June 14th Edition

It’s been two weeks since my last round of predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. With mid-June upon us, I am now adding my first takes on the two screenplay derbies.

What’s changed in the last two weeks? In my estimation, Obsession has picked up considerable momentum with its astonishing box office performance. I am now vaulting the low-budget horror smash from #25 all the way into the BP lineup. Additionally, I am now thinking that Focus Features will slot Inde Navarrette and her buzzy performance to Supporting Actress and I’m placing her in my quintet all the way in second position.

While Obsession‘s fortunes have risen, I would say Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg has taken a slight downturn. The sci-fi saga which debuted this weekend in line with financial expectations (though certainly not over them) will have to battle other blockbusters (Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, Dune: Part Three) over the next several months for awards viability. It could still get in (and so could Emily Blunt in Actress). However, the non-gushing critical response and mixed audience reaction is a potential roadblock.

Trailers can be deceiving when evaluating a picture’s Oscar chances. Yet I have to admit that I found our first look at The Social Reckoning underwhelming and I dropped it from my BP lineup, putting it just on the outside looking in.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. No One Cares (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Obsession (PR: 25) (+15)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-2)

12. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (E)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (-2)

15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Fatherland (PR: 13) (-3)

17. Behemoth! (PR: 19) (+2)

18. Werwulf (PR: 16) (-2)

19. Jack of Spades (PR: 18) (-1)

20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 17) (-3)

21. Josephine (PR: 23) (+2)

22. Saturn Return (PR: 24) (+2)

23. Michael (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Entertainment System is Down

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (E)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day

Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)

8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to Supporting Actress)

Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 13) (+7)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (E)

12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (E)

13. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 10 (-4)

15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead Actress)

3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (E)

11. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Scarlet Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Adele, Cry to Heaven

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-7)

15. Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

Antonio Banderas, Tony

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine

2. Digger

3. Fjord

4. No One Cares

5. A Place in Hell

Other Possibilities:

6. Obsession

7. Behemoth!

8. Club Kid

9. Fatherland

10. Jack of Spades

11. Primetime

12. Josephine

13. The Drama

14. Disclosure Day

15. Saturn Return

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball

2. The Odyssey

3. Project Hail Mary

4. All of a Sudden

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilties:

6. The Social Reckoning

7. Dune: Part Three

8. Sense and Sensibility

9. The Invite

10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

11. Prima Facie

12. Being Heumann

13. A Long Winter

14. Tony

15. Minotaur

Oscar Predictions: Obsession

Curry Barker’s Obsession is out this weekend and exceeding expectations at the box office along with its glowing reviews. The horror flick about a granted wish gone horribly awry stands at 94% on Rotten Tomatoes with a 77 Metacritic. Michael Johnston and Inde Navarrette headline with Cooper Tomlinson, Megan Lawless, and Andy Richter in the supporting cast.

This is not a genre that has historically performed well with awards voters. However, the Academy has shown a willingness to embrace it under the right circumstances. Obsession sports an A- Cinemascore grade. That’s very high for a scary movie and the first to do so since Zach Cregger’s Weapons. I bring it up because that movie ended up being Amy Madigan’s Oscar-winning Supporting Actress turn just two months ago. I suspect it also came close to an Original Screenplay nomination.

If Focus Features mounts a genuine campaign, I wouldn’t totally discount Navarrette’s chances in Best Actress. Her fatally attracted performance is receiving plenty of kudos as is Barker’s original screenplay. Obsession will not reach the financial heights of Cregger’s work even if it plays well throughout the summer. I wouldn’t count on it ultimately being an awards contender, but Weapons proved it’s a possibility at the previous ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Obsession Box Office Prediction

Focus Features looks for genre fans to lock in on Obsession when it debuts May 15th. From writer/director Curry Barker, who will soon be taking over The Texas Chainsaw Massacre franchise, the horror flick originally premiered last fall at the Toronto Film Festival. Michael Johnston, Inde Navarrette, Cooper Tomlinson, Megan Lawless, and Andy Richter lead the cast.

With a teensy budget of around $1 million, Obsession captured the attention of patrons at TIFF during midnight showings. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 96% with 78 on Metacritic. Focus reportedly bought the rights for $15 million with hopes of a sleeper hit.

The optimistic projections have this managing $10 million to low teens. I’m not sure the awareness factor will allow for that so I’ll go just under double digits.

Obsession opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million

For my In the Grey prediction, click here:

In the Grey Box Office Prediction