Tag: Creed

2015 Golden Globe Predictions

Four days before Oscar nominations are revealed, Hollywood will throw their annual party and awards ceremony known as the Golden Globes, put on by the Hollywood Foreign Press (whoever they are). The always entertaining Ricky Gervais is back to host and the show honors 2015’s best in movies and television. I won’t bother with the TV stuff (just because I haven’t followed it anywhere close to what I do with film). As you may know, the Globes divide the picture and lead actor races in two: Drama and Musical/Comedy. This has been a source of some controversy recently with titles like The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle being questionably placed into Comedy. The ante was upped this year when Ridley Scott’s The Martian made that category. It has laughs to be sure, but really?

I’ll go through each race and predict the winners (and potential runner-up) and will update the blog either Sunday evening or Monday with how I did:

Best Picture (Drama)

Nominees:

Carol

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Outlook: Early critical precursors have placed Spotlight in the position of soft front runner for the Oscars and here. In fact, one of its main competitors The Big Short is in the other category so that helps even more. Potential spoilers could be Carol or just maybe Mad Max, but Spotlight is the odds on favorite here.

Predicted Winner: Spotlight

Runner-Up: Carol

Best Picture (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees:

The Big Short

Joy

The Martian

Spy

Trainwreck

Outlook: Let’s dispense with the two outright comedies – Spy and Trainwreck – as they stand no real chance. Joy‘s mixed critical reaction probably leaves it out, too. So we’re down to The Big Short and The Martian. With the deserved controversy of having The Martian even here in the first place aside, Short seems to have the bigger momentum right now and it should edge out its main competitor.

Predicted Winner: The Big Short

Runner-Up: The Martian

Best Actor (Drama)

Nominees:

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Will Smith, Concussion

Outlook: While he’s famously never won an Oscar, Leo did take a Globe two years ago (in Comedy) for Wolf of Wall Street. Look for his dramatic work here to be recognized and it would frankly be fairly surprising if he didn’t win. I’d say Fassbender or maybe Cranston pose the only real upset threats.

Predicted Winner: DiCaprio

Runner-Up: Fassbender

Best Actress (Drama)

Nominees:

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Rooney Mara, Carol

Saoirise Ronan, Brooklyn

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Outlook: My inkling here is that Blanchett and Mara will pretty much cancel each other out for their work in Carol. Vikander is a double nominee this year, but appears to be a long shot in this race especially. Ronan is certainly a possibility, but Larson is the likely recipient for her lauded work.

Predicted Winner: Larson

Runner-Up: Ronan

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees:

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Steve Carell, The Big Short

Matt Damon, The Martian

Al Pacino, Danny Collins

Mark Ruffal0, Infinitely Polar Bear

Outlook: First things first – Pacino and Ruffalo have zero shot. Like the previously discussed race, I could see Bale and Carell canceling one another out and that leaves Mr. Damon.

Predicted Winner: Damon

Runner-Up: Bale

Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees:

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Melissa McCarthy, Spy

Amy Schumer, Trainwreck

Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Outlook: Schumer had her breakout role with Trainwreck and stands a chance, but this is probably Lawrence’s race to lose.

Predicted Winner: Lawrence

Runner-Up: Schumer

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Michael Shannon, 99 Homes

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Outlook: This race is a little trickier and could be ripe for an upset (Elba or Shannon wouldn’t shock me). However, this probably comes down to Rylance (who’s picked up numerous critic precursor notices) and Stallone (for the sentimental vote). I’m going with sentimentality trumping all else.

Predicted Winner: Stallone

Runner-Up: Rylance

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

Jane Fonda, Youth

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Helen Mirren, Trumbo

Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Outlook: Another race that could feature an upset (any one of these ladies are possible), but I’ll give the slight momentum to Leigh’s work.

Predicted Winner: Leigh

Runner-Up: Winslet

Best Director

Nominees:

Todd Haynes, Carol

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Outlook: Don’t see Haynes or Inarritu prevailing, so that leaves this question: will the HFPA go with the likely Best Drama Picture winner’s director (McCarthy) or the outstanding visual work from Miller or Scott. Miller has picked up a number of precursor awards, so I give him the edge over Scott and I ultimately believe he’ll eek out the victory here.

Predicted Winner: Miller

Runner-Up: McCarthy

As for the other categories – here are my picks

Best Screenplay

Predicted Winner: Spotlight

Runner-Up: The Big SHort

Best Score

Predicted Winner: The Hateful Eight

Runner-Up: Carol

Best Song

Predicted Winner: “See You Again” from Furious 7

Runner-Up: “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Winner: Inside Out

Runner-Up: Anomalisa

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Winner: Son of Saul

Runner-Up: Mustang

And there you have it, folks! My Golden Globe predictions…

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: January 1st Edition

Happy New Year, loyal blog readers!!

We begin 2016 with my weekly Oscar predictions leading up to nominations being announced on January 14th. This will mean I’ll have two more posts prognosticating on what and who will be nominated (one on Friday the 8th and one likely the day before the announcements).

A couple of quick notes on various races:

  • There is considerable speculation as to whether Rooney Mara will be nominated in the category of Best Actress or Supporting Actress for her work in Carol. So far, I’ve speculated a nomination for her in the latter. Today, I am changing it to the former.
  • Same goes for Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl, but I’m keeping her in Supporting Actress for now. There is also speculation that her nod could come for Ex Machina and not Danish Girl.
  • The historic box office performance of Star Wars: The Force Awakens is increasing its shot at a Best Picture nomination. I’ve still got it on the outside looking in, but don’t be shocked if that changes in the coming days.

And with that, here’s my weekly predictions that list all possibilities for each race and how they’ve fluctuated since Christmas Day:

Best Picture

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Room (No Change)
  3. The Big Short (+2)
  4. Mad Max: Fury Road (+2)
  5. Carol (-2)
  6. The Martian (+1)
  7. The Revenant (-3)
  8. Brooklyn (No Change)
  9. Bridge of Spies (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+8)

11. Inside Out (-2)

12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)

13. Straight Outta Compton (-2)

14. Beasts of No Nation (-1)

15. Son of Saul (+2)

16. Steve Jobs (No Change)

17. Creed (-2)

18. Sicario (+1)

19. Trumbo (-5)

20. The Danish Girl (No Change)

21. Anomalisa (Previously Unranked)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Director

  1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
  2. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  3. Ridley Scott, The Martian (+1)
  4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (-1)
  5. Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)

7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)

8. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (No Change)

9. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (No Change)

10. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+3)

11. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+4)

12. John Crowley, Brooklyn (-2)

13. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation (-2)

14. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-2)

DROPPED OUT: F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
  2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (No Change)
  3. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (No Change)
  4. Matt Damon, The Martian (+1)
  5. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (No Change)

7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)

8. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)

9. Michael Caine, Youth (+1)

10. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (-1)

11. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (No Change)

12. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)

13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (No Change)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Actress

  1. Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
  2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
  3. Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
  4. Rooney Mara, Carol (Previously Unranked In This Category)
  5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (-1)

7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)

8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You In My Dreams (-1)

9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (No Change)

DROPPED OUT: Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Mara. Out: Rampling.

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  2. Sylvester Stallone, Creed (No Change)
  3. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (No Change)
  4. Christian Bale, The Big Short (No Change)
  5. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (-1)

7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (+1)

8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (+1)

9. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (-2)

10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)

11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-1)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Shannon. Out: Keaton.

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (+3)
  2. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (+1)
  3. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (-2)
  4. Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+1)
  5. Joan Allen, Room (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+1)

7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-1)

8. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)

9. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-1)

10. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Allen. Out: Rooney Mara (moved to Best Actress)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Inside Out (No Change)
  3. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
  4. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  5. Ex Machina (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)

7. Love and Mercy (+2)

8. 99 Homes (-1)

9. Son of Saul (-1)

10. Sicario (No Change)

11. Joy (Previously Unranked)

DROPPED OUT: Youth

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. The Big Short (+1)
  2. Room (+1)
  3. Carol (-2)
  4. Steve Jobs (No Change)
  5. Brooklyn (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (No Change)

7. The Revenant (+2)

8. Beasts of No Nation (-1)

9. Anomalisa (+1)

10. Trumbo (-2)

11. Creed (+2)

12. The Danish Girl (No Change)

13. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Animated Feature

  1. Inside Out (No Change)
  2. Anomalisa (No Change)
  3. Shaun the Sheep Movie (+1)
  4. The Peanuts Movie (+1)
  5. Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Good Dinosaur (No Change)

7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)

8. Minions (Previously Unranked)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Cinematography

  1. The Revenant (No Change)
  2. The Hateful Eight (+1)
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
  4. Sicario (No Change)
  5. Bridge of Spies (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (No Change)

7. Son of Saul (-2)

8. Carol (-1)

9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Previously Unranked)

DROPPED OUT: In the Heart of the Sea

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Bridge of Spies. Out: Son of Saul.

Best Editing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
  2. The Revenant (+2)
  3. Spotlight (-2)
  4. The Martian (+2)
  5. Steve Jobs (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sicario (Previously Unranked)

7. The Big Short (-4)

8. Bridge of Spies (-1)

9. The Hateful Eight (-1)

10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)

11. Carol (Previously Unranked)

12. Room (-3)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Martian. Out: The Big Short.

Best Production Design

  1. Carol (No Change)
  2. The Danish Girl (No Change)
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  4. Bridge of Spies (+1)
  5. The Hateful Eight (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cinderella (No Change)

7. Brooklyn (-3)

8. The Revenant (+1)

9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)

10. Far from the Madding Crowd (Previously Unranked)

11. MacBeth (-1)

DROPPED OUT: The Martian

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Hateful Eight. Out: Brooklyn.

Best Costume Design

  1. Carol (+1)
  2. The Danish Girl (-1)
  3. Cinderella (No Change)
  4. Brooklyn (No Change)
  5. Far from the Madding Crowd (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Hateful Eight (+1)

7. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)

8. MacBeth (+1)

9. The Revenant (+1)

10. Suffragette (-4)

11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Previously Unranked)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Far from the Madding Crowd. Out: Mad Max: Fury Road.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. The Revenant (+4)
  3. Black Mass (+1)

Other Possibilities:

4. Concussion (Previously Unranked)

5. Mr. Holmes (+2)

6. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (Previously Unranked)

7. Legend (Previously Unranked)

DROPPED OUT: The Danish Girl, Carol, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (these top seven finalists indicated above have now been announced)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Revenant, Black Mass. OUT: The Danish Girl, Carol

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
  3. The Revenant (No Change)
  4. The Martian (No Change)
  5. Sicario (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Hateful Eight (-1)

7. In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)

8. Jurassic World (No Change)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Sicario. Out: The Hateful Eight.

Best Sound Editing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. The Revenant (No Change)
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+1)
  4. The Martian (-1)
  5. In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sicario (No Change)

7. The Hateful Eight (No Change)

8. Jurassic World (No Change)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes.

Best Visual Effects

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
  2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
  3. The Martian (No Change)
  4. Jurassic World (No Change)
  5. Ex Machina (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. In the Heart of the Sea (-1)

7. The Walk (-1)

8. Everest (Previously Unranked)

9. The Revenant (-2)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Ex Machina. Out: In the Heart of the Sea.

Best Original Score

  1. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
  2. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  3. Carol (+1)
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
  5. The Danish Girl (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spotlight (No Change)

7. Steve Jobs (+1)

8. Inside Out (+1)

9. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)

10. The Revenant (Previously Unranked)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Original Song

  1. “Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (No Change)
  2. “See You Again” from Furious 7 (+1)
  3. “So Long” from Concussion (-1)
  4. “Simple Song #3” from Youth (+1)
  5. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (+1)

7. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)

DROPPED OUT: “I’ll See You In My Dreams” from I’ll See You in My Dreams

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

And there you have it – my latest Oscar predictions and first post of 2016!

Box Office Predictions: January 1-3

2016 should come in just as 2015 went out with Star Wars: The Force Awakens continuing its historic record breaking run all over the globe. As I see it, I look for its third weekend to hover right around the $100M mark as it blasts forward with becoming the highest grossing domestic earner of all time.

The big opening this weekend is Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight, which debuted in limited release to scorching results. I look for it to come close to $30M over the three day weekend and reach mid 30s for its five day haul (it premieres wide on Wednesday), which should be enough to edge out the second weekend of Daddy’s Home. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/22/the-hateful-eight-box-office-prediction/

There are a host of Christmas holdovers in their second and third frames which should dominate the rest of the Top Ten (without November’s Hunger Games likely rounding out the list). The New Year’s weekend usually sees Christmas products experiencing smallish declines and this year should be no different. Point Break is likely to see the heftiest fall while I anticipate good holds for Joy, Concussion, and The Big Short.

And with that, my top ten predictions for the weekend:

  1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Gross: $98.7 million (representing a drop of 33%)

2. The Hateful Eight

Predicted Gross: $29.2 million

3. Daddy’s Home

Predicted Gross: $25.9 million (representing a drop of 33%)

4. Joy

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Sisters

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million (representing a drop of 35%)

6. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 30%)

7. Concussion 

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 22%)

8. The Big Short

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 26%)

9. Point Break 

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 47%)

10. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million (representing a drop of 30%)

Box Office Results (December 25-27)

The Christmas holiday produced great results (and mediocre ones) for some newbies while Star Wars: The Force Awakens continued its domination and became the fastest pic to gross a billion dollars worldwide. Awakens took in $149.2 million, in line with my $151.6M estimate for a ten day domestic total of $540M. It looks to extend its #1 streak next weekend and beyond.

While the billion $ Star Wars action deservedly got the most press, the other big story of the weekend is the terrific performance of the Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg comedy Daddy’s Home. Despite lackluster reviews, Home scored with $38.7 million, more than doubling my meager $16.5M prediction.

Jennifer Lawrence and her go to director David O. Russell scored a decent opening with Joy. It placed third with $17 million, above my $14.9M projection. The comedic drama, which got mixed reviews, is highly unlikely to reach the grosses of the star and director’s previous outings, Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle.

The Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters actually increased its gross during its sophomore weekend with $14.1 million for fourth, ahead of my $10.4M projection for a nice total of $37M. The other flick in its second weekend, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip placed fifth with $13.1 million, not matching my $16.7M estimate. It’s earned an OK $39M and looks to come in well below its three predecessors in the animated rodent franchise.

Will Smith experienced the worst wide opening of his career with the NFL themed Concussion at $11 million for sixth place, under my $13.8M projection. However, an A Cinemascore grade could portend low declines in coming weekends.

Adam McKay’s critically acclaimed Oscar hopeful The Big Short got off to a robust start at seventh place in wide release with $10.5 million over the three day weekend and $14.5 million since its Wednesday roll out (outshining my projections of $8.1M and $10.6M, respectively).

In eighth, action remake Point Break posted the lowest of the newbies with just $10.2 million, a bit under my $11M prediction. Look for it to fade fast.

Ninth place belonged to the sixth weekend of The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 with $5.2 million (under my $6.5M estimate) for a total of $264M.

I didn’t post a prediction for the limited release of The Hateful Eight, but it managed to crack the top ten with $4.6 million for an explosive per screen average of $46K on just 100 screens. That bodes well for its wide release on Wednesday.

The emergence of Tarantino’s latest pushed Creed and The Good Dinosaur to 11th and 12th place showings. Creed took in $4.6 million (I said $5.8M) for earnings of $96M. Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur made $3.7 million (I predicted $4.9M) for a total of just $105M. To put that in perspective, Dinosaur has made just $105M at press time. The current lowest overall grosser of Pixar’s 16 offerings is 1998’s A Bug’s Life at $162M at that was 17 years ago when ticket prices were considerably less. Dinosaur will be lucky to reach $120M. Ouch.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time and next year with brand spanking new 2016 box office predictions…

Box Office Predictions: December 25-27

This year, Christmas falls on a Friday and there are five new presents to potentially unwrap at the theater: Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg comedy Daddy’s Home, David O. Russell/Jennifer Lawrence collaboration Joy, Oscar hopeful The Big Short with Steve Carell, Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling, and Brad Pitt, action remake Point Break, and Will Smith NFL centered drama Concussion. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/15/daddys-home-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/15/concussion-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/15/joy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/15/point-break-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/16/the-big-short-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, all five are likely to gross somewhere from the high single digits to mid to high teens. I have Daddy’s Home managing to come in first among the newbies, but it could be a close competition for sure.

As for holdovers, both Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip and Sisters will be entering their sophomore frames after sturdy debuts (especially considering the competition). The Christmas weekend usually means that holdovers often increase their gross from the previous weekend and I believe this will hold true for Alvin (and Hunger Games and The Good Dinosaur and Creed for that matter). Sisters should experience a fairly small decline.

And that, of course, brings us to Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which will be entering weekend #2 after its historic opening (more on that below). Audiences and critics have taken to it and it has quickly become a cultural phenomenon. Its next record could be highest second weekend total of all time and in order to do so, it would need to top the six month long record of Jurassic World‘s $106.6 million. As I see it, Force shouldn’t have much of a problem accomplishing that feat and I envision a drop of around 40% for the holiday weekend.

And with that, I’ll expand beyond my usual number and do a Top 11 predictions for an extraordinarily packed Christmas weekend:

  1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Gross: $151.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

2. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million (representing an increase of 17%)

3. Daddy’s Home

Predicted Gross: $16.5 million

4. Joy

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million

5. Concussion

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

6. Point Break

Predicted Gross: $11 million

7. Sisters

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 25%)

8. The Big Short

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (Friday to Sunday prediction), $10.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday prediction)

9. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing an increase of 11%)

10. Creed

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing an increase of 14%)

11. The Good Dinosaur

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing an increase of 14%)

Box Office Results (December 18-20)

Slip in any cliche you like. The Force was with it. It moved at warp speed past the record. Star Wars: The Force Awakens easily set the high for largest domestic opening of all time with an otherworldly $247.9 million, topping my projection of $234.7M. This blasted past the record of Jurassic World, which made $208.8M this summer by nearly $40M. With universal acclaim, Awakens has given Disney a mega franchise to work with for years and crowds were clearly clamoring for a return to that galaxy far, far away.

Two titles dared to open against this juggernaut and both fared decently. Alvin and the Chipmunks took the runner-up spot with $14.2 million, right on par with my $14.3M estimate. While this fourth entry in the series easily had the smallest debut of the bunch, it’s still not bad considering it was up against Luke and company. I’m predicting it’ll see a bounce and stay #2 next weekend.

The Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters was third with $13.9 million for a commendable beginning. My prediction? $13.9M… boom!

Holdovers fell a bit further than my predictions. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 fell to fourth after four weeks at #1 with $5.8 million (I said $7M). Its total stands at $254M.

Creed rounded out the top five with $5 million compared to my $6.3M estimate for an overall gross of $87M.

Pixar disappointment The Good Dinosaur was sixth with $4.3 million, under my $6.8M projection. It has yet to reach $100M after 4 weeks at $96M.

I incorrectly had Krampus outside my top seven and it took that number with $4.1 million for a tidy gross of $35M. That’s because I had the Ron Howard/Chris Hemsworth dud In the Heart of the Sea in seventh. It plummeted to 8th in weekend #2 with a gross of just $3.4 million (compared to my $5.6M estimate) and ten days earnings of just $18M. Ouch.

And that’ll do it for now, ladies and gents! Be sure to check back next week for all the Merry results…

 

 

Creed Movie Review

I will sheepishly admit that when I first heard about the concept of Creed, there may have been some eye rolling involved. Rocky Balboa training the son of his one time foe and eventual friend Apollo Creed? It seemed like a desperate attempt to revitalize a franchise that I didn’t believe needed it. 2006’s Rocky Balboa had some nice moments, but itself seemed an often unnecessary entry for Sylvester Stallone to bring the Italian Stallion back to the screen. Sixteen years prior, Rocky V was and is correctly regarded as an embarrassment. Five years prior and 30 years ago is the last time we saw Apollo, lying on the mat after taking a fatal blow from Russian fighter Ivan Drago.

In Creed, we learn the late Apollo has a son from the result of an affair. Adonis “Donnie” Johnson (Michael B. Jordan) is a product of the juvenile detention system in L.A. who can’t seem to stop fighting other kids. He soon learns his lineage from Creed’s widow (Phylicia Rashad) and it affords him a comfortable life growing up. Donnie can’t stay away from the ring, however. This means meaningless bouts in Tijuana in a low key resume that may be due to the fact that he won’t make public that he’s the offspring of a boxing legend.

Donnie wants something more and it leads him to Philadelphia, in hopes of being trained by Stallone’s iconic Balboa. Just as in the 2006 predecessor, Rocky now leads a quiet life running his restaurant and spending much time in the cemetery carrying on conversations with his beloved late wife Adrian and now Uncle Paulie as well. He’s hesitant to train Donnie but his loyalty to Apollo takes precedence. Circumstances lead to a shot at the title, just like with young Rock nearly 40 years ago. And it forges a friendship between the pair that takes many dramatic turns and is truly quite touching.

The Philly pilgrimage gives Donnie a love interest with his neighbor Bianca (Tessa Thompson), a singer who is gradually losing her hearing. Their well-written romance includes a moment where Donnie asks her what she’ll do when she’s no longer able to do what she loves. Bianca responds that she has to keep going until she can’t anymore. Of course, that metaphor applies to Donnie. And Rocky. And even Donnie’s opponent “Pretty” Ricky Conlan (Tony Bellew), an English brawler whose championship is about to surrendered to an upcoming prison sentence.

This brings us to Ryan Coogler, the writer (along with Aaron Covington) and director of Creed. Mr. Coogler gained acclaim for his debut pic Fruitvale Station which served as a breakout role for Jordan. Stallone has smartly handed over screenplay and directorial duties to this up and comer. Coogler imbues this series with a grittiness and emotional resonance that hasn’t been seen since the Oscar winning original. It allows Stallone to focus on his performance, which is quite something to behold. He permits us to see Rocky as in many ways a broken man who is given one last chance to do something he loves (just not in the ring). Jordan is very impressive as well and the whole idea of this concept being a gimmick is forgotten quickly. Much of this is due to the complexities and nuance that Jordan brings to the proceedings.

The boxing scenes are also extremely well constructed and easily the most realistic we’ve seen in the franchise. That may not be saying much, truth be told. When Balboa fought Donnie’s father’s executioner in Russia, the punch thrown to landed percentage was about 110%. Creed at least makes noble attempts to make the sport kind of look like it does.

Coogler has made a legitimate accomplishment here, managing to present a poignant partnership between Donnie and his legendary teacher. Many of us fondly recall Rocky running up those steps in the City of Brotherly Love. There’s a variation of that here and its metaphorical meaning may well bring tears to your eyes. Who would have thought we’d see that level of depth in this franchise? Kudos to Stallone for allowing a young and gifted filmmaker to enter the ring here and kudos to Coogler for giving Stallone this opportunity to take his most famous role in unforeseen and enriching directions.

***1/2 (out of four)

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 18th Edition

We arrive at my weekly Oscar predictions and a new wrinkle has been added. I’m predicting every category with the exception of Foreign and Documentary (those will eventually be added).

As with last week, I’ll ranking according to my feelings on likelihood of the films and performers being nominated and let you know what’s changed since last week. The pluses and minuses and no changes indicated their ranking from last week to this week.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. The Revenant (No Change)
  3. Room (No Change)
  4. Brooklyn (+3)
  5. Carol (-1)
  6. The Martian (No Change)
  7. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
  8. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  9. The Big Short (+2)

Other Possibilities:

10. Inside Out (No Change)

11. The Hateful Eight (-2)

12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+11)

13. Trumbo (+6)

14. Son of Saul (+3)

15. The Danish Girl (+1)

16. Sicario (+5)

17. Beasts of No Nation (-3)

18. Steve Jobs (-5)

19. Straight Outta Compton (-4)

20. Creed (-8)

21. Joy (-2)

22. Love and Mercy (-1)

23. Anomalisa (-6)

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: The Big Short. OUT: The Hateful Eight.

Best Director

  1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (No Change)
  3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  4. Ridley Scott, The Martian (No Change)
  5. Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)

7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)

8. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+9)

9. John Crowley, Brooklyn (No Change)

10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)

11. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)

12. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+1)

13. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Not Ranked)

14. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (+2)

15. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (-1)

16. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation (-5)

17. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-7)

DROPPED OUT: David O. Russell, Joy

What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
  2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (+1)
  3. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (-1)
  4. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (+1)
  5. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Martian (No Change)

7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)

8. Michael Caine, Youth (+3)

9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)

10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)

11. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (+2)

12. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)

13. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (-5)

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Actress

  1. Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
  2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
  3. Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
  4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (No Change)
  5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)

7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+2)

8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (-2)

9. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)

10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (No Change)

11. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette (+1)

12. Lily Tomlin, Grandma (-1)

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  2. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (+1)
  3. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
  4. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (+1)
  5. Sylvester Stallone, Creed (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+4)

7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (-1)

8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)

9. Christian Bale, The Big Short (-2)

10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)

11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-2)

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
  2. Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
  3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (No Change)
  4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (No Change)
  5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+4)

7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-2)

8. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-2)

9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)

10. Joan Allen, Room (-2)

DROPPED OUT: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Helen Mirren, OUT: Jane Fonda.

Best Original Screenplay 

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Inside Out (+1)
  3. The Hateful Eight (-1)
  4. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  5. Love and Mercy (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Son of Saul (-1)

7. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Not Ranked)

8. 99 Homes (No Change)

9. Sicario (+1)

10. Ex Machina (+1)

11. Straight Outta Compton (-4)

12. Youth (Previously Not Ranked)

13. Joy (-4)

14. Trainwreck (-2)

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Love and Mercy. OUT: Son of Saul.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Room (+2)
  2. Brooklyn (+2)
  3. Carol (-2)
  4. The Big Short (+1)
  5. Steve Jobs (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (+1)

7. Trumbo (+3)

8. The Revenant (-2)

9. Beasts of No Nation (No Change)

10. Anomalisa (-2)

11. The Danish Girl (+1)

DROPPED OUT: Creed

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Animated Feature (First Time Predictions)

  1. Inside Out
  2. Anomalisa
  3. Kahlil Gobran’s The Prophet
  4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
  5. The Good Dinosaur

Other Possibilities:

6. The Peanuts Movie

7. When Marnie Was There

8. Home

Best Cinematography (First Time Predictions)

  1. The Hateful Eight
  2. The Revenant
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road
  4. The Martian
  5. Sicario

Other Possibilities:

6. Carol

7. Bridge of Spies

8. The Danish Girl

Best Production Design (First Time Predictions)

  1. Carol
  2. The Danish Girl
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road
  4. Cinderella
  5. Bridge of Spies

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. Brooklyn

8. The Martian

9. The Hateful Eight

10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

11. MacBeth

Best Editing (First Time Predictions)

  1. Spotlight
  2. Mad Max: Fury Road
  3. The Revenant
  4. The Big Short
  5. Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

6. The Hateful Eight

7. The Martian

8. Bridge of Spies

9. Room

Best Costume Design (First Time Predictions)

  1. Carol
  2. Cinderella
  3. Brooklyn
  4. The Danish Girl
  5. Far from the Madding Crowd

Other Possibilities:

6. Mad Max: Fury Road

7. Suffragette

8. Trumbo

9. The Hateful Eight

10. MacBeth

Best Makeup and Hairstyling (First Time Predictions)

  1. The Danish Girl
  2. Carol
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Other Possibilities:

4. Mad Max: Fury Road

5. Black Mass

6. Pan

7. The Hateful Eight

8. The Revenant

Best Visual Effects (First Time Predictions)

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Martian
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. Jurassic World
  5. The Walk

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. In the Heart of the Sea

8. Ex Machina

Best Sound Mixing (First Time Predictions)

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Martian
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. The Revenant
  5. Sicario

Other Possibilities:

6. Jurassic World

7. The Hateful Eight

8. In the Heart of the Sea

Best Sound Editing (First Time Predictions)

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Revenant
  3. The Martian
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  5. In the Heart of the Sea

Other Possibilities:

6. Sicario

7. The Hateful Eight

8. Jurassic World

Best Original Score (First Time Predictions)

  1. The Hateful Eight
  2. Carol
  3. Spotlight
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  5. The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. Bridge of Spies

8. Sicario

9. Brooklyn

10. Mad Max: Fury Road

11. Southpaw

Best Original Song (First Time Predictions)

  1. “Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground
  2. “See You Again” from Furious 7
  3. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey
  4. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
  5. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey

Other Possibilities:

6. “Simple Song #3” from Youth

7. “One Kind of Love” from Love and Mercy

8. “So Long” from Concussion

Whew! Those predictions reflect a current belief of the following films garnering nominations with number included:

9 Nominations

Carol

8 Nominations

Mad Max: Fury Road

7 Nominations

The Revenant

6 Nominations

The Danish Girl, The Martian, Spotlight

5 Nominations

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

4 Nominations

Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, Steve Jobs

3 Nominations

The Big Short, Room

2 Nominations

Cinderella, Fifty Shades of Grey, Inside Out, Love and Mercy, Sicario, Trumbo

1 Nomination

Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunting Ground, In the Heat of the Sea, Joy, Jurassic World, Kahlil Gabron’s The Prophet, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Spectre, The Walk

 

Box Office Predictions: December 18-20

It’s a weekend that box office prognosticators like myself have been waiting for all year long! Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the fourth Alvin and the Chipmunks film has arrived!!!

OK… in all seriousness, you may have heard of the big picture arriving this weekend called Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The seventh episode of the beloved franchise has been breathlessly awaited and it stands a shot at breaking pretty much every box office record there is. I truly feel it could gross anywhere from $170-$275 million out of the gate so I basically split the difference. That means my prediction does have it devouring the all time opening weekend record posted by Jurassic World this summer. It is worth noting that other estimators are saying this will come under what Jurassic accomplished, but we shall see. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/08/star-wars-the-force-awakens-box-office-prediction/

Somewhat surprisingly, other studios are premiering new product in hopes of serving as counter programming to The Force. We have the aforementioned Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip and Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters. I look for them to have fairly soft openings and have a close competition for second place. On the bright side, both titles could continue to play well and experience small declines into further holiday weekends. My prediction posts on both of them can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/10/sisters-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/10/alvin-and-the-chipmunks-the-road-chip-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 will finally fall from its four week perch atop the charts. In the Heart of the Sea got off to a lackluster start (more on that below) and I actually expect it to drop farther percentage wise than The Good Dinosaur and Creed.

And with that, my top seven predictions for what could be a historic weekend:

  1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Gross: $234.7 million

2. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

3. Sisters

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

4. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2

Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 38%)

5. The Good Dinosaur

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 36%)

6. Creed

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)

7. In the Heart of the Sea

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)

Box Office Results: December 11-13

Ron Howard’s $100 million whale tale In the Heart of the Sea with Chris Hemsworth was crushed by a wave of audience ambivalence with a gross of just $11 million, well under my $18.4M estimate. The pic, which received mixed reviews, simply didn’t capture the attention of adventure fans who may be biding their time until this weekend.

That allowed The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 to stay #1 for the fourth weekend in a row with $11.3 million, just topping my $10.5M projection. The franchise finale has taken in $244 million.

Pixar’s disappointing The Good Dinosaur was third with $10.5 million, ahead of my $9.4M prediction for a total of $89 million. This is well below the standards of what its studio is accustomed to and it remains on track to be Pixar’s smallest earner. On the bright side for parent company Disney, they’ve got a pretty high profile release out this weekend…

Creed took fourth with $10.1 million, a bit higher than my $9.1M estimate for an overall tally of $79 million. This looks to be the first Rocky flick to top $100M since Rocky IV some thirty years ago.

Krampus was fifth in its second weekend with $8.4 million, topping my $7.3M projection. Its taken in a tidy $28 million at press time and is performing solidly for a relatively low budget horror comedy.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time… May The Force Be With You…

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 11 Edition

And now we’ve arrived at my weekly Oscar predictions for the eight biggest categories and yes, things have changed in one week. Most notably, many critics precursor awards have been announced and just in the last 48 hours, nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been revealed. The past week’s activity has given a huge boost to Mad Max: Fury Road‘s inclusion into the Best Picture race and I’m including it for the first time. Other pics that have received some momentum: Carol, Trumbo (in acting races), and possibly The Big Short.

For the first time, I’m ceasing to list my predicted nominees and other possibilities alphabetically. We are now switching to where I’m listing according to my thoughts on their probability of being nominated.

And here we go, my friends:

Best Picture

  1. Spotlight
  2. The Revenant
  3. Room
  4. Carol
  5. Mad Max: Fury Road
  6. The Martian
  7. Brooklyn
  8. Bridge of Spies
  9. The Hateful Eight

Other Possibilities:

10. Inside Out

11. The Big Short

12. Creed

13. Steve Jobs

14. Beasts of No Nation

15. Straight Outta Compton

16. The Danish Girl

17. Son of Saul

18. Anomalisa

19. Trumbo

20. Joy

21. Sicario

22. Love and Mercy

23. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Mad Max: Fury Road, Out: Inside Out

Best Director

  1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
  2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
  3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
  4. Ridley Scott, The Martian
  5. Todd Haynes, Carol

Other Possibilities:

6. Lenny Abrahamson, Room

7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

8. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

9. John Crowley, Brooklyn

10. Ryan Coogler, Creed

11. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation

12. Adam McKay, The Big Short

13. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul

14. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

15. David O. Russell, Joy

16. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

17. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Todd Haynes. Out: Lenny Abrahamson

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
  2. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
  3. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
  4. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
  5. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Martian

7. Will Smith, Concussion

8. Michael B. Jordan, Creed

9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes

10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

11. Michael Caine, Youth

12. Steve Carell, The Big Short

13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Bryan Cranston. Out: Matt Damon

Best Actress

  1. Brie Larson, Room
  2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
  3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
  4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
  5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Other Possibilities:

6. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

8. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold

10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

11. Lily Tomlin, Grandma

12. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

What’s Changed Since Last Week – NO CHANGES

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
  2. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
  3. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
  4. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
  5. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

7. Christian Bale, The Big Short

8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant

9. Benicio del Toro, Sicario

10. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes

11. Jacob Tremblay, Room

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Paul Dano and Idris Elba. Out: Tom Hardy and Mark Ruffalo

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
  2. Rooney Mara, Carol
  3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
  4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
  5. Jane Fonda, Youth

Other Possibilities:

6. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria

7. Helen Mirren, Trumbo

8. Joan Allen, Room

9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

10. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

11. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Spotlight
  2. The Hateful Eight
  3. Inside Out
  4. Bridge of Spies
  5. Son of Saul

Other Possibilities:

6. Love and Mercy

7. Straight Outta Compton

8. 99 Homes

9. Joy

10. Sicario

11. Ex Machina

12. Trainwreck

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Son of Saul. Out: Love and Mercy

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Carol
  2. Steve Jobs
  3. Room
  4. Brooklyn
  5. The Big Short

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. The Martian

8. Anomalisa

9. Beasts of No Nation

10. Trumbo

11. Creed

12. The Danish Girl

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: The Big Short. Out: Anomalisa. 

And that’ll do it for this week’s predictions! Stay tuned for next Friday’s picks…

Box Office Predictions: December 11-13

Call it the call before an intergalactic storm as the second week of December brings just one new entry: Ron Howard’s In the Heart of the Sea with Chris Hemsworth. The film has picked up decent reviews (65% on Rotten Tomatoes) yet it seems to be flying a bit under the radar and it posted disappointing results in its overseas debut over the weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/03/in-the-heart-of-the-sea-box-office-prediction/

Even with my predicted mediocre opening for Sea, it shouldn’t have much trouble premiering at #1 as the rest of the top five should consist of holdovers The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2, Krampus, Creed, and The Good Dinosaur. Comedic holiday horror fest Krampus had a better than anticipated opening (more on that below), but it should suffer the largest drop-off as that genre usually does.

All in all, it should be a pretty quiet weekend before the box office juggernaut Star Wars: The Force Awakens looks to demolish records the following week. And I’ll have my individual prediction post on that pic up later this week!

With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. In the Heart of the Sea

Predicted Gross: $18.4 million

2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 44%)

3. The Good Dinosaur

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Creed

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. Krampus

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (December 4-6)

As expected, it was a quiet post Thanksgiving weekend at the box office as The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 managed to stay on top for the third weekend in a row. The bright spot was Krampus, which exceeded the expectations of prognosticators by a nice margin.

Katniss and company ruled the charts with $18.8 million, right in line with my $18.5M estimate and the final chapter in the franchise has taken in $227M.

Krampus soared past my $7.1 million projection to earn $16.2 million for a solid runner-up showing. The mostly well reviewed horror comedy, as mentioned, surpassed nearly all estimates.

Disney/Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur continued to show disappointing results with $15.3 million in weekend #2, below my $18.7M prediction. It stands at $75 million at press time and is in very real danger of being Pixar’s lowest domestic grosser of all time.

The critically hailed Creed made $14.9 million in its sophomore frame, a bit below my $16.4M estimate for an overall haul of $64M. A gross of over $100M seems within reach.

Finally, Spectre rounded out the top five with $5.5 million, in range with my $6M projection for a total of $184M.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Boston Strong for Mad Max

Another day, another critics organization bestowing their best of in movies for 2015. And like the National Board of Review before it, the Boston Online Film Critics have honored Mad Max: Fury Road as their favorite of the year. Its director, George Miller, was victorious as well. This marks yet another win for the fourth entry in the action franchise and increases momentum for the Academy honoring it for a nod in January. I have yet to include Fury Road among my predicted nominees, but that could change soon.

Perhaps the most surprising thing about Max’s win in Boston was that they didn’t pick Spotlight, the Catholic Church priest scandal expose that centers on Boston Globe reporters. Spotlight was included among their other nine selections of the year’s best along with Creed, Brooklyn, Carol, Clouds of Sils Maria, Bridge of Spies, The Martian, Anomalisa, and Tangerine. Notable pics left off: The Revenant, The Hateful Eight, and Joy.

Boston’s selections also marked a great day for Creed. Michael B. Jordan took Best Actor and Sylvester Stallone got Supporting Actor. While Jordan’s chances at an Oscar nod are up in the air (though he’s got some momentum), Stallone is looking more and more like a lock for inclusion.

The actress categories mirrored what the New York critics did earlier this week. Saoirse Ronan won for lead in Brooklyn and she seems a safe bet for Academy attention. Kristen Stewart picked up her second award for the little seen Clouds of Sils Maria and while I’ve yet to list her as an Oscar nominee, she seems to be coming on strong over the past week.

As always, I’ll keep updating the blog as these awards precursors keep coming. Stay tuned!