Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch was supposed to premiere at Cannes in 2020 before the COVID-19 pandemic altered that plan. One year later, the auteur’s latest has screened in the French Riviera and it’s probably the most eagerly awaited debut of the festival. The film boasts an ensemble that is to be expected from the filmmaker and it reads like a who’s who of his frequent collaborators and several other previous awards nominees: Benicio del Toro, Adrien Brody, Tilda Swinton, Timothee Chalamet, Frances McDormand, Lyna Khoudri, Jeffrey Wright, Mathieu Amalric, Bill Murray, Owen Wilson, Elisabeth Moss, Liev Schrieber, Edward Norton, Willem Dafoe, Saoirse Ronan, Christoph Waltz, Jason Schwartzman (who shares a story credit with Anderson and others), Bob Balaban, and Anjelica Huston. Yeah, I know.
Early reviews indicate that this anthology (out stateside on October 22) is a loving ode to journalism and that could be right up the alley of Academy voters. Yet some buzz is also indicating this isn’t among his strongest efforts. One thing seems certain: Dispatch is a visual feast that should easily assert itself in several technical categories. That certainly includes Production Design, Costume Design, Alexandre Desplat’s Original Score, Cinematography, and perhaps Makeup and Hairstyling (though that race in particular could be packed this year).
What do all those races have in common? They were all nominations received for Anderson’s 2014 pic The Grand Budapest Hotel, which scored nine mentions (winning for Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Score, and Production Design). Don’t be surprised if this is a major hopeful in those same categories.
As for the massive amount of actors, here’s a fun fact: no performance from an Anderson production has ever been nominated. That seems hard to believe, but his casts often make it tricky to pick a favorite or two to mount a campaign for. Del Toro, Chalamet, Wright, and McDormand have been singled out in some write-ups already. I suspect none will emerge to make the Oscar cut. Chalamet has hope in lead actor for Dune and the same can be said for McDormand with The Tragedy of Macbeth (time will tell).
Now to the biggest derbies. Will The French Dispatch manage Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay nods? The latter seems most possible. And while some European chatter indicates the other two could be out of reach, it’s important to remember that it took a little time for Budapest Hotel to become the Academy player that it turned out to be.
Bottom line: the future is cloudy for Dispatch when it comes to the most high-profile competitions. Some Academy love down the line in the tech races already seems highly likely. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Of the six actors to have played the most famous spy in cinematic history, only one of them has ever been nominated for an Oscar. That would be, of course, Sean Connery and he was victorious in 1987 for his supporting work in The Untouchables. It is worth noting that the last two Bonds (Pierce Brosnan, Daniel Craig) have Golden Globes nods in the Musical/Comedy category for The Matador and Knives Out, respectively.
With the recent death of Sir Connery, this got me thinking… how many actors from the nearly 60 year old franchise have been recognized by the Academy? And how much Oscar attention has the series itself received? For the first question, it was rather limited until Craig took over the role. For the second question, 9 out of the 24 official 007 entries have managed to get on awards voters radar screens. So let’s break it down, shall we?
Goldfinger (1964) was the third feature in the franchise and it marked the first nomination and win for the Bond catalogue. The pic took the Best Sound Effects trophy. One year later, Thunderball won for its Visual Effects. Connery’s final official appearance in 1971’s Diamonds Are Forever resulted in a nod for its sound.
When Roger Moore took over the part, his debut saw the first theme song nominated courtesy of Paul McCartney’s title track to 1973’s Live and Let Die. There would also be song nods for both The Spy Who Loved Me (1977) and For Your Eyes Only in 1981. Spy would mark the first Bond flick to score multiple mentions with its score and art direction. And Moore’s 1979 space opus Moonraker was nominated for its visual effects.
George Lazenby’s one-off appearance in On Her Majesty’s Secret Service, Timothy Dalton’s two 1980s pictures, and the 1990s-early 2000s four film Pierce Brosnan run yielded zero Oscar mentions. Same goes for Craig’s first two outings Casino Royale and Quantum of Solace.
So it had been over 30 years since a Bond adventure had been recognized on Oscar night when 2012’s Skyfall landed a franchise record 5 nominations. It won two with Adele’s theme song and its sound editing. The other nods were Score, Sound Mixing, and Cinematography. The song love would continue with 2015’s Spectre when Sam Smith won for his tune.
Add that up and we have 15 total nominations for the series and 5 wins.
We move to the thespians and their fortune at the big show. As mentioned, before the recent run of Craig titles, it was a bit limited. In fact, the number of actors who are Oscar nominees from the Craig run nearly equals everything that came before it. Giancarlo Giannini appeared in Casino and Quantum and he was a Best Actor nominee in 1975 for Seven Beauties. Ralph Fiennes (otherwise known as M) is a double nominee for Schindler’s List and The English Patient. Naomie Harris (or Moneypenny) achieved a Supporting Actress mention for 2016’s Moonlight. Albert Finney showed up in Skyfall and he was nominated five times in his long career. Craig’s original “M” was Judi Dench and she dates back to the Brosnan era. She’s a one-time winner with 6 other nominations.
That’s just the good guys. In the Craig era, the villains come with serious awards cred. Javier Bardem from Skyfall had taken Supporting Actor five years earlier in No Country for Old Men and is a two-time Best Actor nominee for Before Nights Falls and Biutiful. Christoph Waltz (Spectre) is a double Supporting Actor winner with Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained. And the next pic – the oft delayed No Time to Die – has Rami Malek as its main baddie. In 2018, he gave his acceptance speech for Bohemian Rhapsody.
Going back to the beginning, From Russia with Love featured Lotte Lenye (a 1961 nominee for The Roman Spring of Mrs. Stone) and Robert Shaw (nominated three years after Russia for A Man for All Seasons). And that’s actually the extent of performers from the Connery era nominated for Oscars… sort of. The legend did return to the role in 1983’s Never Say Never Again, though it is not considered part of the “official” catalogue. It does boast three Academy players with Klaus Maria Brandauer (Out of Africa), Max Von Sydow (Pelle the Conquerer and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), and Kim Basinger (Supporting Actress recipient for 1997’s L.A. Confidential).
Telly Savalas costarred with Lazenby in Secret Service and he was nominated seven years earlier for his work in Birdman of Alcatraz. In the Moore era, there’s just Topol. He’s best known his nominated work in Fiddler on the Roof and he costarred in For Your Eyes Only. In the Dalton double feature, we have Benicio del Toro as he was a henchman in Licence to Kill. Over a decade later, he would win Supporting Actor for Traffic and get another nod for 21 Grams. Things picked up a bit with Brosnan. In addition to Dench, a trio of actresses were on their way or had already achieved nominations. Halle Berry co-headlined Die Another Day one year after winning Actress for Monster’s Ball. Minnie Driver had a small role in Goldeneye and would have her breakout part (along with Supporting Actress inclusion) two years later with Good Will Hunting. And Rosamund Pike was also in Die Another Day a decade plus before her Actress nod for Gone Girl.
A final word. Not one of the 24 released 007 features has achieved any acting, directing, writing, or picture nominations of its own. Skyfall probably came the closest as some prognosticators wondered whether it could be the first to nab a Picture nod. It didn’t materialize, but its five nominations indicate it might have come the closest. Indeed, Daniel Craig’s time as Bond has seen him costar with the most Academy friendly costars. Let’s see if the next performer to play the iconic spy gets to act alongside that same kind of pedigree.
Today we continue with my recaps of the movie summers from 30, 20, and 10 years ago. I’ve already covered 1989 and 1999 and if you missed them, you can find them right here:
Looking over the 2009 list, it’s a reminder of how one thing in particular has changed in just a decade. In the summer of 2008, IronMan came out and kickstarted the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Two seasons later, IronMan2 followed. In every summer since, there’s been a massive MCU title often ruling the charts. 2009 is the last year not to feature one.
Instead, one of the most indelible images from 10 years past is Mike Tyson belting out a Phil Collins classic.
As I’ve done with previous entries, I’ll recount the top ten hits along with some other notable pics and flops. Let’s get to it!
10. G.I.Joe: TheRiseofCobra
Domestic Gross: $150 million
Hasbro was kind of the MCU of this summer by bookending the top 10. Based on their popular set of action figures, Cobra spawned a sequel and introduced many moviegoers to Channing Tatum.
9. TheProposal
Domestic Gross: $163 million
What a year for Sandra Bullock. First she has this huge rom com with Ryan Reynolds and months later gets her Oscar winning turn in TheBlindSide. Not to mention Betty White is in this!
8. NightattheMuseum: BattleoftheSmithsonian
Domestic Gross: $177 million
While it couldn’t match the $250 million earned by its 2006 predecessor, the Ben Stiller led family adventure sequel still did enough for a part 3 to eventually follow.
7. X–MenOrigins: Wolverine
Domestic Gross: $179 million
The first of three spinoffs for Hugh Jackman’s iconic clawed character, this is generally considered the worst of them. It still made a pretty penny and gave us a first glimpse at Ryan Reynolds as Wade Wilson, aka Deadpool.
6. IceAge: DawnoftheDinosaurs
Domestic Gross: $196 million
The third of these five animated tales, Dinosaurs stands at the largest grosser by a mere $1 million over 2006 predecessor IceAge: TheMeltdown.
5. StarTrek
Domestic Gross: $257 million
J.J. Abrams was able to bring this long running film and TV milestone to the next generation in a critically acclaimed way. His reboot remains the highest grossing entry in the canon of Trek. Two sequels so far have followed.
4. TheHangover
Domestic Gross: $277 million
The breakout comedy of the summer made stars out of Bradley Cooper and Zach Galifianakis in particular and had the aforementioned Mike Tyson musical moment of glory. Two lesser regarded sequels followed.
3. Up
Domestic Gross: $293 million
Pixar had another smash hit with this tale of aging and wonder that contains my personal favorite sequence of any of their titles. The opening montage of a couple’s journey through life is simultaneously beautiful and devastating.
2. HarryPotterandtheHalf–BloodPrince
Domestic Gross: $301 million
This sixth Potter pic set up the two part franchise finale and it stands at the third biggest grosser behind the eighth and final entry and the first film in 2001.
1. Transformers: RevengeoftheFallen
Domestic Gross: $402 million
The follow-up to the 2007 original, Michael Bay’s metallic action extravaganza is the high point in terms of box office dollars overall and largest opening, even though critics mercilessly crucified it.
And now for some other notable flicks from the summer that was 10 years ago:
Angels&Demons
Domestic Gross: $133 million
The sequel to TheDaVinciCode, the return of Tom Hanks as Robert Langdon performed decently, but nowhere near the $217 million achieved by its predecessor. The next sequel Inferno bombed.
InglouriousBasterds
Domestic Gross: $120 million
Quentin Tarantino’s revisionist World War II saga become his best earning pic at the time and earned a slew of Oscar nods, including a win for scene stealer Christoph Waltz.
District9
Domestic Gross: $115 million
Made for a mere $30 million, Neill Blomkamp announced himself a serious force of sci-fi nature with heralded work that nabbed a Best Picture nod.
PublicEnemies
Domestic Gross: $97 million
This gangster tale from Michael Mann was headlined by Johnny Depp and Christian Bale as they took a break between their respective pirate and bat franchises. It was a slight box office disappointment as it couldn’t quite match its $100 million budget back domestically.
Julie&Julia
Domestic Gross: $94 million
Meryl Streep got her umpteenth Oscar nod playing famed chef Julia Child in this Nora Ephron dramedy that proved to be a nice August hit.
Bruno
Domestic Gross: $60 million
There was enough goodwill left over from Sacha Baron Cohen’s smash Borat to propel this satire about a fashion journalist to a $30 million opening weekend. It fell off quickly after that impressive start.
DragMetoHell
Domestic Gross: $42 million
Following on the heels of his Spider–Man trilogy, this horror comedy brought Sam Raimi back to his EvilDead roots. Box office dollars were just ok, but critics appreciated it.
(500) DaysofSummer
Domestic Gross: $32 million
Made for a tiny $7.5 million, Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Zooey Deschanel charmed audiences with this rom com from Marc Webb. He would take over the Spidey franchise from Raimi shortly thereafter.
TheHurtLocker
Domestic Gross: $17 million
Kathryn Bigelow’s intense tale of bomb technicians in Iraq made a name for Jeremy Renner. While its box office earnings weren’t that potent, the real reward came later when it won the Oscar for Best Picture and Bigelow became the first female to be awarded Best Director.
We move to pictures that failed to meet expectations or were outright flops.
TerminatorSalvation
Domestic Gross: $125 million
The Governor of California sat this one out and this McG directed franchise entry couldn’t match the opening of part 3 from six years prior. Today it’s perhaps best known for a secretly recorded onset argument between McG and star Christian Bale.
TheTakingofPelham123
Domestic Gross: $65 million
A remake of a 1974 Walter Matthau action flick about hijacked subway cars, Tony Scott’s collaboration starring Denzel Washington and John Travolta fell short of anticipated blockbuster status.
FunnyPeople
Domestic Gross: $51 million
Judd Apatow had made two huge comedies with The40YearOldVirgin and KnockedUp. This one centered on the world of stand-up with Adam Sandler and Seth Rogen. It was more personal and divided critics and crowds alike.
LandoftheLost
Domestic Gross: $49 million
Based on a loopy 1970s TV series, Will Ferrell had a rare bomb with this critically derided prehistoric pic. It didn’t earn half of its $100 million price tag back stateside.
YearOne
Domestic Gross: $43 million
Yet another prehistoric comedic failure, the talents of director Harold Ramis and Jack Black and Michael Cena couldn’t get reviewers or audiences on its side.
ImagineThat
Domestic Gross: $16 million
Families ignored this particular Eddie Murphy headliner that stands as one of his lowest grossing efforts.
And that does it for my seasonal summer recaps! A year from now… look for 1990, 2000, and 2010 coming your way.
Based on a popular Japanese graphic novel, the sci-fi action spectacle Alita: BattleAngel is finally ready for release next Thursday. Robert Rodriguez serves as director with a screenplay from another well-known auteur by the name of James Cameron (as well as Laeta Kalogridis). Rosa Salazar provides the voice and motion capture work for the title character and other cast members include Christoph Waltz, Jennifer Connelly, Mahershala Ali, Ed Skrein, and Jackie Earle Haley.
Alita was originally slated for release last summer before being pushed back to December. The folks at 20th Century Fox moved it from that crowded marketplace to Valentine’s Day. However, other movies should still be a factor. TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart will likely top the charts in its second frame while horror sequel HappyDeathDay2U opens and provides some direct audience competition.
The reported budget here is rumored to be possibly $200 million. The visuals have been praised while the film itself has had a mixed critical reaction (57% currently on Rotten Tomatoes). Alita is tracking to be a disappointment stateside considering the price tag and I agree with that assessment. I’ll say it manages high teens to low 20s for the traditional Friday to Monday portion of the Presidents Day frame, which should mean mid 20s when factoring in the Thursday gross.
Alita: BattleAngel opening weekend prediction: $19.7 million (Friday to Monday); $24.8 million (Thursday to Monday)
James Cameron is no stranger to Oscar attention with Titanic winning Best Picture 21 years ago and Avatar picking up a slew of nominations in 2009. In two weeks, he serves as co-writer for Alita: BattleAngel along with Laeta Kologridis. It’s directed by Robert Rodriguez. The pic is based on a well-known series of cyberpunk graphic novels from Japan. Rosa Salazar voices the title character and provides motion capture work for her movements in this mix of live and CG action.
Reviews are out and they’re skewing negative, along with some positive here and there. The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 44%. A lot of the critics are particularly picking apart the screenplay and that’s not an uncommon knock on Cameron’s writing.
Alita comes with a reported budget upwards of $200 million and it’s being seen as a potential costly flop stateside (foreign grosses could be a different story). While this clearly won’t contend for major categories in awards season, the state of the art visuals have been praised. And it’s worth noting that Cameron’s directorial efforts Aliens, TheAbyss, Terminator2: JudgmentDay, Titanic, and Avatar all won Best Visual Effects at the Oscars.
That said, there’s plenty of eye-popping blockbuster feasts on the schedule in 2019 (Avengers: Endgame and the next StarWars included). With the possibility of negative buzz enveloping it, this may not even be a slam dunk in that category. In that sense, it could be similar to 2017’s ValerianandtheCityofaThousandPlanets, which also had poor word-of-mouth and missed out in its most obvious slot for recognition. If this manages a nod, the two Sound races are possible as well.
Continuing on with my look back at the major categories from 1990 to the present at the Oscars, we arrive at Best Supporting Actor! If you missed my post regarding Supporting Actress, you can find it right here:
As I did with that blog entry, I’m picking the top 3 least surprising winners (performers who essentially sailed right through awards season) and the 3 biggest upsets in each race. I am also selecting the strongest and weakest fields overall.
As a primer, here are the 28 actors whose support earned them a golden statue:
1990 – Joe Pesci, GoodFellas
1991 – Jack Palance, City Slickers
1992 – Gene Hackman, Unforgiven
1993 – Tommy Lee Jones, The Fugitive
1994 – Martin Landau, Ed Wood
1995 – Kevin Spacey, The Usual Suspects
1996 – Cuba Gooding Jr., Jerry Maguire
1997 – Robin Williams, Good Will Hunting
1998 – James Coburn, Affliction
1999 – Michael Caine, The Cider House Rules
2000 – Benicio del Toro, Traffic
2001 – Jim Broadbent, Iris
2002 – Chris Cooper, Adaptation
2003 – Tim Robbins, Mystic River
2004 – Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
2005 – George Clooney, Syriana
2006 – Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
2007 – Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
2008 – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2009 – Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
2010 – Christian Bale, The Fighter
2011 – Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2012 – Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
2013 – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
2014 – J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
2015 – Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
2016 – Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2017 – Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
There are plenty to choose from as far least surprising winners, but here’s my top ones:
3. Gene Hackman, Unforgiven
Clint Eastwood’s Western picked up a slew of awards on Oscar night and Hackman’s inclusion in that race was never really in doubt. It was his second statue after winning Best Actor 21 years previously for The French Connection.
2. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
It was director Christopher Nolan giving numerous awards speeches on behalf of the late Ledger, as his work playing the iconic villain swept all precursors as well. This remains not only the only win in the omnipresent superhero genre in the 21st century, but the only nomination.
1. Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Like Ledger, Bardem created a bad guy for the ages in the Coen Brothers Oscar-winning picture. He picked up all the precursors as well for his role.
And now the upsets!
3. James Coburn, Affliction
There was clearly no front-runner in 1998 as a different actor was honored in each preceding awards show. Ed Harris took the Golden Globe for The Truman Show, Billy Bob Thornton (A Simple Plan) was victorious at the Critics Choice Awards, Robert Duvall’s role in A Civil Action was honored at SAG, and Geoffrey Rush (Elizabeth) was the BAFTA recipient. Surely one of them would win the Oscar, but it instead went to Mr. Coburn.
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
In 2015, the general consensus was that Sylvester Stallone would punch out the competition in his signature role for Creed. That would have been quite a feat after Rocky took Best Picture in 1976 – nearly four decades prior. Yet it didn’t materialize when Rylance made the trip to the podium.
1. Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Along the same lines, Eddie Murphy was the strong favorite for his rare dramatic work in Dreamgirls. With Jennifer Hudson as a sure thing for Supporting Actress (which did happen), the musical looked safe for a supporting sweep. The Academy surprisingly went another route by honoring Arkin.
And now to the fields overall and choosing a strongest and weakest. For the least impressive of the bunch, I’m going with 2011. Here were the nominees:
Christopher Plummer, Beginners (winner)
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
When it comes to best overall field, I chose 1993. This is the year that Tommy Lee Jones got the gold in The Fugitive. That’s a rare acting win for an action flick. It was deserved in my view and the other four nominees were very strong as well. They were:
Leonardo DiCaprio, What’s Eating Gilbert Grape
Ralph Fiennes, Schindler’s List
John Malkovich, In the Line of Fire
Pete Postlethwaite, In the Name of the Father
Furthermore, I could keep going with other deserving actors that year, including Val Kilmer in Tombstone and Sean Penn for Carlito’s Way.
The next trip down memory lane will be Best Actress and it will be up soon!
It’s been quite some time since I’ve done an Oscar History post (about two and a half years) and I’m at 2012. It was a year in which Seth MacFarlane hosted the show – fresh off his comedy smash Ted. Here’s what transpired in the major categories with some other pictures and performers I might have considered:
The year saw nine nominees for Best Picture in which Ben Affleck’s Argo took the top prize. Other nominees: Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook (my personal favorite of the year), and Zero Dark Thirty.
Many Wes Anderson fans would contend that Moonrise Kingdom should have made the cut. And I could certainly argue that The Avengers (perhaps the greatest comic book flick and the year’s biggest grosser) was worth a nod.
The nominations in Best Director were a huge surprise at the time. While Argo won the top prize of all, Affleck was not nominated for his behind the camera efforts. It was the first time since Driving Miss Daisy‘s Bruce Beresford where an Oscar-winning Picture didn’t see its filmmaker nominated.
Instead it was Ang Lee who was victorious for Life of Pi over Michael Haneke (Amour), David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook), Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), and Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild).
In addition to Affleck, it was surprising that Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) was not included. And I certainly would have put in Tarantino for Django.
The race for Best Actor seemed over when the casting of Daniel Day-Lewis as Abraham Lincoln was announced. And that’s exactly how it played out as he won his third Oscar over a strong slate of Bradley Cooper (Playbook), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), and Denzel Washington (Flight).
The exclusion of John Hawkes in The Sessions could have been welcomed, but I’ll admit that’s a solid group.
Jennifer Lawrence won Best Actress for Silver Linings over Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts), and Naomi Watts (The Impossible).
Again, no major qualms here. I did enjoy the work of Helen Mirren in Hitchcock (for which she did get a Golden Globe nod).
Supporting Actor was competitive as Christoph Waltz won his second statue for Django (three years after Inglourious Basterds). He was a bit of a surprise winner over Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln. Other nominees: Alan Arkin (Argo), Robert De Niro (Playbook), and Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master).
Here’s a year where there’s a lot of others I thought of. Waltz won, but I think the work of Leonardo DiCaprio and Samuel L. Jackson in Django was equally impressive. There’s Javier Bardem as one of the greatest Bond villains ever in Skyfall. Or John Goodman’s showy role in Flight. As for some other blockbusters that year, how about Tom Hiddleston in The Avengers or Matthew McConaughey in Magic Mike? And my favorite comedic scene of that year was due to Giovanni Ribisi in Ted…
In Supporting Actress, Anne Hathaway was a front-runner for Les Miserables and there was no upset. Other nominees: Amy Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), Helen Hunt (The Sessions), and Jacki Weaver (Playbook).
Judi Dench had more heft to her part as M in Skyfall that year and I’ll also give a shout-out to Salma Hayek’s performance in Oliver Stone’s Savages.
And there’s your Oscar history for 2012! I’ll have 2013 up… hopefully in less than two and a half years!
Director Alexander Payne and his writing partner Jim Taylor enter new genre territory with Downsizing, but it’s filled with the themes found in their previous efforts. A central character searching for meaning in life, marital strife, and classism are on display. Unlike prior features, science fiction elements and a bigger budget are in the mix. This is a story loaded with intriguing prospects that doesn’t lead to a totally rewarding whole.
A prologue shows the advent of a monumental discovery by Norwegian scientists – the ability to shrink humans to only five inches tall. The reasoning to do it is to save the Earth by significantly reducing pollution and overpopulation. Not all citizens who choose to go through the procedure are hardcore environmentalists. There’s also the added bonus that downsizing is a financial boon. Every dollar in big world translates to about a grand in the smaller one.
This is the primary reason why occupational therapist Paul (Matt Damon) and his wife Audrey (Kristin Wiig) choose their new path. The Omaha couple agree to downsize and populate the colony of Leisureland. In Nebraska, they’re scraping by. They will be millionaires post op. A surprise happens on the way to the procedure. Paul goes through with it, but Audrey backs out and leaves him.
Lonely Paul must adjust to his tiny new surroundings and life. His eventual divorce agreement causes him to trade his Leisureland mansion for an apartment (albeit a pretty nice one). Up to this point, Downsizing is pretty nifty. The leadup and explanations of how this new world works are fascinating. There’s some prejudice involved with the full size humans meeting those about to become small. Should they get full voting rights, for instance? We also discover there’s nefarious governments that forcibly shrink their dissidents.
Further exploration of themes like these could have made a potentially rich experience. Downsizing goes a different direction. Paul’s upstairs neighbor is a party animal played with expected gusto by Christoph Waltz. It’s through this freewheeling character that Paul meets Ngoc Lan (Hong Chau), a Vietnamese political activist who was punished by that government. She’s an amputee and cleaning lady with a heart of gold. Ngoc Lan takes Paul to the slums of Leisureland where he begins to medically assist its poor residents. He also begins to fall for his companion.
The picture, at this juncture, largely abandons its sci fi leanings and concentrates on issues of self-worth, love, and political themes. Of course, all these things have been present in many great science fiction efforts. However, the tone of Downsizing is a shifty one. There’s moments of satire that aren’t biting enough and an earnestness that can come off cloying. That latter description could sometimes apply to Damon’s work. Payne has directed a number of actors to Oscar nominations. His lead here displays the same syrupy conviction in which he once bought a zoo. Chau is a different story. She creates a character whose backstory might have been really rewarding if shown onscreen. Unfortunately, Ngoc Lan eventually becomes just the love interest to the blander protagonist.
Payne and Taylor deserve a degree of credit for crafting this odd concoction. There’s some original thoughts here and some sequences are truly impressive, especially the downsizing procedure itself. That said, the emotional payoff the filmmakers are reaching for never quite reached me. There are moments in AboutSchmidt, Sideways, TheDescendants and Nebraska that did so more often and with an appreciated higher level of subtlety. So while I admire Downsizing for some big ideas, the overall impact is smaller.
Director Alexander Payne’s latest Downsizing hits screens next Friday for a holiday release. The science fiction dramedy features Matt Damon, Kristin Wiig, Jason Sudeikis, Christoph Waltz, and Hong Chau.
Payne has seen his last three films – Sideways, The Descendants, Nebraska – all nab Best Picture nominations. Downsizing was once seen as an Oscar contender until it premiered at the Venice Film Festival months ago to mixed reviews (it stands at a muted 64% on Rotten Tomatoes). In fact, its only Academy chatter is focused on costar Chau, who could manage a Supporting Actress nod.
The near complete lack of awards chatter has muted the buzz for this project. The pic also has plenty of competition for its intended adult audience, including The Greatest Showman and various other genuine Oscar hopefuls.
Add that up and I feel Downsizing will experience a debut in the low double digits or teens. That would a bit under another Damon flick from an acclaimed director released over Christmas from six years ago, Cameron Crowe’s We Bought a Zoo.
Downsizing opening weekend prediction: $11.7 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle prediction, click here:
Thursday is here and that means my weekly Oscar predictions have kicked off for the month of November!
And that, ladies and gentlemen, means some changes have arrived. I am now expanding to include every category covering feature-length movies and listing my most likely possibilities in each. Additionally, I am slimming down the Best Picture possibilities from 25 to 15 and now just 10 instead of 15 in the other races.
There are a couple of revisions shown below I would like to cover. First, Steven Spielberg’s The Post has been high on my list for weeks. However, persistent rumors abound that it may not be the surefire contender that it appears to be on paper. Therefore, it’s taken a hit this week. I still have it listed for Picture and Actress (Meryl Streep), but it’s fallen out of my predicted nominees in other categories.
Another change is one that intersects with the news of the day and it cannot be ignored. Due to recent allegations that have surfaced in the last few days, there is little question that Kevin Spacey’s chances for Supporting Actor in All the Money in the World have potentially disappeared. That revision is also reflected today.
Now, for the first time, my thoughts on all the races for the 2017 Oscars:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
4. Mudbound (PR: 8)
5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
8. The Post (PR: 3)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 11)
12. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)
13. Last Flag Flying (PR: 15)
14. Detroit (PR: 12)
15. Get Out (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Battle of the Sexes
Downsizing
The Greatest Showman
The Big Sick
All the Money in the World
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Wonderstruck
Molly’s Game
Wind River
Coco
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
4. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 8)
5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
8. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 3)
9. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 10)
10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying
Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 7)
7. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)
9. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
10. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, Hostiles
Matt Damon, Downsizing
Jeremy Renner, Wind River
Algee Smith, Detroit
Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
3. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 6)
7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 8)
8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 7)
9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman
Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Diane Kruger, In the Fade
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)
5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
9. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 12)
10. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World
Will Poulter, Detroit
Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Patrick Stewart, Logan
Idris Elba, Molly’s Game
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)
3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)
9. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)
10. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled
Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
Tatiana Maslany, Stronger
Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck
Sarah Paulson, The Post
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 8)
8. The Disaster Artist (PR: 7)
9. Stronger (PR: 10)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
All the Money in the World
Thank You for Your Service
First, They Killed My Father
The Death of Stalin
Wonder
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. The Florida Project (PR: 4)
5. Lady Bird (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Big Sick (PR: 7)
7. Get Out (PR: 8)
8. The Post (PR: 6)
9. Dunkirk (PR: 10)
10. I, Tonya (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Phantom Thread
Downsizing
Wind River
Battle of the Sexes
Coco
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute)
2. In the Fade
3. First, They Killed My Father
4. Happy End
5. Foxtrot
Other Possibilities:
6. The Square
7. A Fantastic Woman
8. Loveless
9. The Divine Order
10. Tom of Finland
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
4. Birdbag: The Forgotten Children
5. Ferdinand
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie
7. Cars 3
8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie
9. Despicable Me 3
10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. City of Ghosts
2. Risk
3. Icarus
4. Cries from Syria
5. Jane
Other Possibilities:
6. Step
7. The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson
8. Dina
9. One of Us
10. Kedi
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Darkest Hour
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Mudbound
Other Possibilities:
6. Blade Runner 2049
7. The Post
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
9. Call Me by Your Name
10. Detroit
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Darkest Hour
5. Phantom Thread
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck
7. Mudbound
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
9. Wonder Wheel
10. The Greatest Showman
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Darkest Hour
4. Phantom Thread
5. Dunkirk
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast
7. The Greatest Showman
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
9. Wonder Wheel
10. Call My by Your Name
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. Darkest Hour
4. The Greatest Showman
5. Victoria and Abdul
Other Possibilities:
6. Blade Runner 2049
7. The Beguiled
8. Wonder Wheel
9. The Post
10. Murder on the Orient Express
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour
2. The Shape of Water
3. Phantom Thread
Other Possibilities:
4. The Greatest Showman
5. I, Tonya
6. Beauty and the Beast
7. Thor: Ragnarok
8. Blade Runner 2049
9. It
10. Wonderstruck
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. War for the Planet of the Apes
4. The Shape of Water
5. Dunkirk
Other Possibilities:
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
7. Beauty and the Beast
8. Wonder Woman
9. Thor: Ragnarok
10. Kong: Skull Island
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Wonder Woman
5. Transformers: The Last Knight
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water
7. Coco
8. Detroit
9. Baby Driver
10. War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Greatest Showman
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver
7. Detroit
8. Transformers: The Last Knight
9. Darkest Hour
10. Coco
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Wonderstruck
5. Coco
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
7. The Post
8. Blade Runner 2049
9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
10. The Greatest Showman
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
3. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast
5. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman
Other Possibilities:
6. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria
7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit
8. “The Promise” from The Promise
9. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
10. “To Be Human” from Wonder Woman
And that leaves my inaugural breakdown for number of nominations by each picture:
12 Nominations
The Shape of Water
11 Nominations
Darkest Hour
10 Nominations
Dunkirk
6 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
5 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Phantom Thread
4 Nominations
Mudbound, The Greatest Showman
3 Nominations
The Florida Project, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
The Post, I, Tonya, Lady Bird, Victoria and Abdul, Beauty and the Beast
1 Nomination
Stronger, Battle of the Sexes, Novitiate, Downsizing, Last Flag Flying, Molly’s Game, First, They Killed My Father, In the Fade, BPM (Beats Per Minute), Happy End, A Fantastic Woman, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Birdbag: The Forgotten Children, Ferdinand, City of Ghosts, Risk, Icarus, Cries from Syria, Jane, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder Woman, Transformers: The Last Knight, Wonderstruck, Marshall, Fifty Shades Darker
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