Jared Leto strikes again! Ellen Burstyn and Delroy Lindo are 0 for 2 with the Golden Globes and SAG! Minari and Da 5 Bloods get much needed boosts after a rough go at the Globes!
These are some of the headlines from this morning’s SAG Award nominations, which are traditionally a more accurate barometer on what the Academy might do when it comes to their unveilings (happening March 15).
As I did yesterday with the Globes, let’s break down each category, how I did, and what I think it all means.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, One Night in Miami, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 4/5
Minari needed a good showing here after receiving just one nod at Globes and it did so with SAG. It got in over my predicted Mank, which had a subpar performance today (more on that below). This could be where Trial ends up shining with a win, but it’s a strong competition this year.
Outstanding Performance by a Female in a Leading Role
Nominees: Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy), Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
How I Did: 4/5
The Davis/Kirby/McDormand/Mulligan bunching looks solid for the Academy’s eventual list. It’s the fifth spot that’s up for grabs and Adams got in over Zendaya (Malcom & Marie). Look for Adams, Zendaya, and potentially Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) to vie for it.
Outstanding Performance by a Male in a Leading Role
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)
How I Did: 4/5
The headline here is Delroy Lindo’s work in Da 5 Bloods has been snubbed by the Globes and SAG and that certainly puts his Oscar chances in serious jeopardy. This is also another shot in the arm for Minari with Yeun making the cut over Lindo. At this juncture, Ahmed/Boseman/Hopkins/Oldman looking good for the Academy. Whether Lindo can rebound is the question.
Outstanding Performance by a Female in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Youn Yuh-jung (Minari), Helena Zengel (News of the World)
How I Did: 2/5
Ouch! If anything, this morning proved just how open this race is. The genuine surprise is Amanda Seyfried not being named for Mank. I believe she could win the Oscar (as could Close), so her omission is noticeable. It is worth mentioning that Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk missed here in 2018 and wound up taking gold with the Academy. I also didn’t have Yuh-jung or Zengel in favor of Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman) and Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite). Burstyn has also been blanked with the Globes not honoring her yesterday. And Zengel has nabbed nods from both branches so her Oscar visibility is on the rise. This is also a boost for Bakalova.
Outstanding Performance by a Male in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Jared Leto (The Little Things), Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)
How I Did: 4/5
Gotta start with Leto obviously. Yesterday, perhaps the most significant Globes shocker was Leto getting in. Today… SAG follows suit. So the possibility of his Oscar nomination is quite real. Leto gets in over my prediction of Glynn Turman in Ma Rainey. At this point, Baron Cohen/Boseman/Kaluuya/Odom Jr. should be in for Oscar with the fifth slot a head scratcher. It could be filled by performers who missed the Globes/SAG cut such as Paul Raci in Sound of Metal or Mark Rylance for The Trial of the Chicago 7. There’s also Globe nominee Bill Murray for On the Rocks. Or perhaps Mr. Leto keeps rolling…
Finally, I didn’t do predictions for the sixth category: Best Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture. They are: Da 5 Bloods, Mulan, News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Wonder Woman 1984.
Today’s nominations give the following pictures these numbers in terms of nods:
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7
2 Nominations
The Father, Hillbilly Elegy, News of the World, One Night in Miami
1 Nomination
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Little Things, Mank, Mulan, Nomadland, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Wonder Woman 1984
You can expect updated Oscar estimates (which will certainly take these activities into account) on Sunday!
If you had told me yesterday that the Kate Hudson’s Music, which is directed by pop star Sia and hasn’t been released yet domestically, would achieve two Golden Globe nominations and that Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods would get zero, I might have said you’re crazy. Yet welcome to Awards Season 2020 as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association weighed in with their nods this morning and provided some genuine shockers (as they normally do).
There’s no doubt that the big loser today was Da 5 Bloods which was shut out while Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman performed better than expected. Much more to discuss so let’s break it down by each category, shall we?
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 3/5
It must be said that The Father had a good morning as well along with Promising. Those two pictures made it in over my predictions of Da 5 Bloods and One Night in Miami. I will note that some pundits had Mank missing the cut, but I’ve never fully bought that it won’t perform well during this awards season.
Best Director
Nominees: Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank), Regina King (One Night in Miami), Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
How I Did: 4/5
Fennell’s inclusion here is the surest indication of HFPA’s love for her film. She makes it in over Spike Lee for Bloods. The HFPA did make some history in this race with 3 women nominated out of the five.
Best Actress – Drama
Nominees: Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
How I Did: 4/5
This pushes forward the narrative that Davis/Kirby/McDormand/Mulligan are a quartet likely to see SAG and Oscar nods. It’s been the fifth slot up for grabs and Andra Day got there over my prediction for Sophia Loren in The Life Ahead. A GG nod could have helped Loren’s Oscar viability (let’s see if SAG mentions her tomorrow).
Best Actor – Drama
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
How I Did: 4/5
The 5 Bloods shutout produced the largest shocker in this particular category with Delroy Lindo being snubbed in favor of Tahar Rahim. Lindo should bounce back at SAG and we’ll know soon enough.
Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy
Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Hamilton, Music, Palm Springs, The Prom
How I Did: 4/5
As previously stated, this Music pic came out of nowhere and stands as one of the enormous surprises. It got in over Emma. Others had On the Rocks in that spot and it whiffed too.
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Kate Hudson (Music), Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit), Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot), Anya Taylor-Joy (Emma)
How I Did: 3/5
Once again, Hudson’s name was certainly not expected. Pike’s inclusion is less surprising as I had her as my first alternate. They make the cut over Cristin Milioti (Palm Springs) and another unforeseen development… Meryl Streep (The Prom) not getting her expected nod. That doesn’t happen often.
Best Actor – Musical/Comedy
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), James Corden (The Prom), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton), Dev Patel (The Personal History of David Copperfield), Andy Samberg (Palm Springs)
How I Did: 4/5
Not many pundits were guessing James Corden’s work in The Prom would be nominated and not his costar Meryl Streep. I had him off in favor of Leslie Odom, Jr. for Hamilton.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Helena Zengel (News of the World)
How I Did: 4/5
Zengel’s inclusion here increases her visibility and if she gets a SAG nomination, her Oscar chances become quite real. The young performer made it in over the legendary Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Jared Leto (The Little Things), Bill Murray (On the Rocks), Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)
How I Did: 4/5
With the exception of that Kate Hudson movie, another morning jaw dropper was Jared Leto being recognized for The Little Things. Per another storyline of the day, he replaces Chadwick Boseman in the blanked Da 5 Bloods.
Best Film Screenplay
Nominees: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 3/5
The Father and Promising Young Woman continued their encouraging runs here to the detriment of One Night in Miami and (again) Da 5 Bloods.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: The Croods: A New Age, Onward, Over the Moon, Soul, Wolfwalkers
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Behold the only race where I called it perfectly! Don’t be surprised if this is Oscar’s quintet as well.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Another Round, La Llorona, The Life Ahead, Minari, Two of Us
How I Did: 3/5
Llorona and Two were named over Martin Eden and Quo Vadis, Aida? in a lineup that should come down to Round or (more likely) Minari.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Mank, The Midnight Sky, News of the World, Soul, Tenet
How I Did: 4/5
No big surprise that Midnight Sky got in over Minari. This could well by the Oscar lineup.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah, “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7, “Seen” from The Life Ahead, “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami, “Tigress & Tweed” from The United State vs. Billie Holiday
How I Did: 2/5
An unpredictable group of songs for awards consideration proved to be just that with my worst performance of the day. It was “Fight”, “Voice” and “Tigress” in over “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest, “Only the Young” from Miss Americana, and “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon.
How I Did Overall: 51/70
That shakes out to the following number of nods for these pictures:
6 Nominations
Mank
5 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
4 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman
3 Nominations
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, One Night in Miami
2 Nominations
Hamilton, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Mauritanian, Music, News of the World, Palm Springs, The Prom, Soul, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
Another Round, The Croods: A New Age, Emma, French Exit, Hillbilly Elegy, I Care a Lot, La Llorona, The Little Things, The Midnight Sky, Minari, On the Rocks, Onward, Over the Moon, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, Two of Us, Wolfwalkers
You can expect predictions in all these races a couple of days before showtime on February 28th!
My weekly Oscar predictions brings us to an important frame ahead as the Golden Globe nominations will be revealed on Wednesday with the SAG nods coming Thursday! When I update my estimates next weekend, don’t be surprised if those unveilings change the narrative of the overall picture here. If you missed my predictions for the Globes and SAG, you can find them here:
As for now, I’m dwindling the list back down from 10 to 9 in the Best Picture derby and just on the outside looking in is Minari. For some context, I feel pretty confident that the top 6 films in my BP guesstimates make the cut. Anything between 7-12… not so much and I expect these titles to likely shift around as we get closer to nomination time.
In Supporting Actor, the fifth slot goes back to Mark Rylance for The Trial of the Chicago 7 over Paul Raci in Sound of Metal. In Adapted Screenplay, Nomadland has now lost the top spot to One Night in Miami.
You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll have reaction to the Globe and SAG picks up this week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 10)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. The Father (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Minari (PR: 9)
11. Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Malcolm & Marie (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
9. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 6)
8. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 8)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 10)
10. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: 10)
10. John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 8)
8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 9)
9. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 7)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)
10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. Minari (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. Soul (PR: 7)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 10)
10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Malcolm & Marie
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
2. Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
4. The Father (PR: 3)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 6)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
9. French Exit (PR: 10)
10. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 8)
8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
9. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Trolls World Tour
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Time (PR: 2)
2. The Dissident (PR: 4)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
5. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Boys State (PR: 6)
7. Collective (PR: 7)
8. Crip Camp (PR: 8)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Welcome to Chechnya
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. A Sun (PR: 4)
4. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
5. Collective (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dear Comrades! (PR: 6)
7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 5)
8. Two of Us (PR: 9)
9. My Little Sister (PR: 8)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. Minari (PR: 8)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)
7. News of the World (PR: 6)
8. Ammonite (PR: 10)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. The Glorias (PR: 9)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Tenet (PR: 7)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 4)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 3)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
7. Mulan (PR: 6)
8. Pinocchio (PR: 8)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emma
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Minari (PR: 5)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
8. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 9)
9. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
10. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 10)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
7. Tenet (PR: 5)
8. Mulan (PR: 6)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
5. News of the World (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Soul (PR: 7)
8. Greyhound (PR: 10)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
4. Greyhound (PR: 4)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 5)
7. Mulan (PR: 6)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
9. Mank (PR: 9)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
This equates to these films garnering these numbers for nods:
12 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
7 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
News of the World
4 Nominations
One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Birds of Prey, Emma, Minari, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Soul, Tenet
1 Nomination
Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Collective, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, First Cow, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, Malcolm & Marie, Mulan, Night of the Kings, Onward, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Totally Under Control, The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Wolfwalkers
Now onto SAG! As a friendly reminder, the Screen Actors Guild do not have a Best Picture category in the traditional sense as they instead honor the best ensemble. In other words, pictures with smaller casts have a tougher time making the final cut.
Here’s how I have it shaking out later this week!
Best Film Ensemble
Predicted Nominees:
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
1st Alternate – Minari
2nd Alternate – Nomadland
Best Film Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie
1st Alternate – Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
2nd Alternate – Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Best Film Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank
1st Alternate – Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
2nd Alternate – Steven Yeun – Minari
Best Film Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
1st Alternate – Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
2nd Alternate – Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Best Film Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
1st Alternate – Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
2nd Alternate – Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
This equates to the following number of nominations for each picture:
4 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Mank
2 Nominations
The Father, One Night in Miami, Pieces of a Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
1 Nomination
Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, Judas and the Black Messiah, Malcolm & Marie, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal
I’ll have my reaction up to the nominations on Thursday!
The biggest Oscar precursor thus far drops their nominations this Wednesday (with SAG following the next day) in a week where the awards picture should become a bit clearer.
Of course, The Hollywood Foreign Press Association has a habit of making some left field picks from time to time. And unlike the Academy, they split their film and lead acting races into Drama and Comedy/Musical.
Every week on the blog, I have been forecasting each Oscar race. However, for the Globes, it’s just one post with my final predictions for what I feel will happen on Wednesday. In every category, I’m also selecting a first and second alternate. We shall see how I do shortly!
P.S. – SAG Predictions are up tomorrow! Let’s get to it…
Best Film Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
First Alternate – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Second Alternate – The Father
Best Film Director
Predicted Nominees:
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
First Alternate – Florian Zeller, The Father
Second Alternate – Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Best Actress – Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
First Alternate – Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie
Second Alternate – Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Best Actor – Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank
First Alternate – Steven Yeun, Minari
Second Alternate – Tom Hanks, News of the World
Best Film Comedy/Musical
Predicted Nominees:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Emma
Hamilton
Palm Springs
The Prom
First Alternate – On the Rocks
Second Alternate – The Personal History of David Copperfield
Best Actress – Comedy/Musical
Predicted Nominees:
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Cristin Milioti, Palm Springs
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
First Alternate – Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Second Alternate – Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Best Actor – Comedy/Musical
Predicted Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton
Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
First Alternate – Pete Davidson, The King of Staten Island
Second Alternate – James Corden, The Prom
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
First Alternate – Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Second Alternate – Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
First Alternate – Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Second Alternate – Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Film Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
First Alternate – The Father
Second Alternate – Promising Young Woman
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
First Alternate – The Willoughbys
Second Alternate – Earwig and the Witch
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
Another Round
The Life Ahead
Martin Eden
Minari
Quo Vadis, Aida?
First Alternate – Dear Comrades!
Second Alternate – Beanpole
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul
Tenet
First Alternate – Hillbilly Elegy
Second Alternate – The Midnight Sky
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
“Only the Young” from Miss Americana
“Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon
“Seen” from The Life Ahead
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
First Alternate – “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom
Second Alternate – “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
And that breaks out to the following pictures receiving these numbers for nominations:
6 Nominations
Mank
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3 Nominations
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Hamilton, The Life Ahead, Minari, Palm Springs
2 Nominations
Emma, The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, The Prom, Soul
1 Nomination
Another Round, The Croods: A New Age, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, French Exit, Hillbilly Elegy, Judas and the Black Messiah, Martin Eden, The Mauritanian, Miss Americana, News of the World, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Promising Young Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Sound of Metal, Tenet, Wolfwalkers
I’ll have reaction to the Globe nods up on Wednesday!
My latest round of Oscar estimates keeps my predicted number of Best Picture nominees at the full 10 – with a change. It’s News of the World back in and Promising Young Woman on the outside looking in.
In the other major categories, my picks remain the same with some movement in the rankings. Most notably, in the Supporting Actress field, I am putting Amanda Seyfried’s work in Mank back at #1 over Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy.
You can read all the developments below and I’ll be back at it next weekend!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
8. The Father (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 7)
10. News of the World (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 13)
13. Soul (PR: 12)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Malcolm & Marie (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)
7. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
9. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
10. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
5. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 9)
7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
8. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
9. John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 10)
10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)
7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 9)
8. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 8)
8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)
9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 4)
3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 2)
4. Minari (PR: 3)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. Soul (PR: 6)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. Malcolm & Marie (PR: 8)
10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 4)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. French Exit (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
8. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 8)
9. Demon Slayer (PR: 10)
10. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (formerly Connected)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 3)
2. Time (PR: 1)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 4)
4. The Dissident (PR: 2)
5. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Boys State (PR: 6)
7. Collective (PR: 7)
8. Crip Camp (PR: 8)
9. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 9)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. A Sun (PR: 6)
5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dear Comrades! (PR: 5)
7. Collective (PR: 4)
8. My Little Sister (PR: 8)
9. Two of Us (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Never Gonna Snow Again
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
8. Minari (PR: 7)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Malcolm & Marie
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 4)
4. Mulan (PR: 3)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 5)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
9. The Glorias (PR: 9)
10. Ammonite (PR: 8)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. Tenet (PR: 9)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)
4. Mank (PR: 3)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 8)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
8. Pinocchio (PR: 5)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
10. Emma (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
5. Minari (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 8)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
9. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 9)
10. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Wear Your Crown” from The Prom
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 5)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Tenet (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 3)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 6)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
7. Soul (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
10. Greyhound (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)
4. Greyhound (PR: 5)
5. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 3)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
9. Mank (PR: 8)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)
And that equates to the following films garnering these numbers for nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
5 Nominations
News of the World
4 Nominations
Minari, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Sound of Metal, Tenet
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Soul
1 Nomination
Another Round, Birds of Prey, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, Greyhound, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, Malcolm & Marie, Mulan, Night of the Kings, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
For the past several years, the magic number has traditionally been nine when it comes to Best Picture nominees. It can fluctuate anywhere between 5 and 10 according to the rules, unlike every other category. This changes to a finite 10 starting in 2022. And since August when I began these (mostly) weekly estimates, I’ve kept it at 9.
However, I am expanding it to ten this week as I believe Judas and the Black Messiah could easily make the cut and I just couldn’t take any of the other nine films out. Obviously this may change as we move closer to nomination morning, but that’s where I stand today.
In the major categories, other changes are Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) entering the Best Director mix for the first time and that takes out George C. Wolfe for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. In Supporting Actor, I have yet again switched the 5 spot with Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) in and Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7) out.
Zendaya’s work in Malcolm & Marie goes from unranked status all the way to #5 and this displaces Andra Day for The United States vs. Billie Holiday.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
7. Minari (PR: 5)
8. The Father (PR: 7)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
11. News of the World (PR: 11)
12. Soul (PR: 13)
13. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
8. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
9. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)
10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Robin Wright, Land
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 8)
8. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 9)
10. John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 8)
8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 6)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)
8. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
3. Minari (PR: 4)
4. Mank (PR: 2)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
8. Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Forty-Year-Old Version
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
4. The Father (PR: 2)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 7)
8. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. French Exit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Emma
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)
8. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 8)
9. Connected (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Bombay Rose
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Time (PR: 2)
2. The Dissident (PR: 4)
3. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
4. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
5. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Boys State (PR: 5)
7. Collective (PR: 9)
8. Crip Camp (PR: 7)
9. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 8)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. Collective (PR: 7)
5. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Sun (PR: 5)
7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 4)
8. My Little Sister (PR: 6)
9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 9)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Minari (PR: 7)
8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Mulan (PR: 5)
4. Emma (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
8. Ammonite (PR: 10)
9. The Glorias (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
9. Tenet (PR: 10)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 6)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
5. Pinocchio (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
8. Mulan (PR: 8)
9. Emma (PR: 10)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 4)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
8. Tenet (PR: 6)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 7)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)
9. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 10)
10. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 7)
5. Emma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
9. Tenet (PR: 8)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
5. Soul (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. Greyhound (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 4)
4. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
5. Greyhound (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
8. Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Dolittle
And that equates to the following pictures garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4 Nominations
Minari, News of the World, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah, Mulan, Promising Young Woman, Soul, Sound of Metal
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Tenet
1 Nomination
Another Round, Birds of Prey, Collective, Dear Comrades!, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, Malcolm & Marie, Night of the Kings, Onward, Pinocchio, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
I continue with my Oscar Watch posts for pictures sending screeners late in the season and we arrive at one with real potential – Shaka King’s Judas and the Black Messiah. The Warner Bros production hits theaters and HBO Max simultaneously on February 12. It stars Lakeith Stanfield as an undercover FBI informant tasked to take down Black Panther head Fred Hampton (Daniel Kaluuya).
While the review embargo is still intact, social media reactions are available today. They point to a feeling many had when the first trailer debuted months ago in that Judas could nab several nominations come Oscar morning. In particular, Kaluuya’s performance (being campaigned for in Supporting Actor) is being highly praised. This would be his second nomination behind his lead work in 2017’s Get Out. His inclusion in the supporting field appears not only likely, but he could win. I could foresee a narrative in which Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) and Kaluuya vie for the prize and this storyline could play out until April.
Stanfield is in the Best Actor mix, but his final five status is much more questionable. Like Best Actress in 2020, lead actor may already have four performances that are “in”. That would be Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), and Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods). The fifth slot could be a toss-up between several performers including Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Gary Oldman (Mank), and Steven Yeun (Minari). Today’s buzz suggests adding Stanfield to that list is warranted.
Same goes for Supporting Actress with Dominique Fishback as several posts are highlighting her work. This year’s lineup appears in flux and there’s room for last minute surprises in that particular field. She will be one to keep an eye on.
As for Best Picture, Judas has been kept out of my predicted nine until word of mouth was available. When my estimates are updated on Thursday, it could well make its initial appearance. King’s direction is also on the table for final five status. Several down the line races are possible including Cinematography (also being mentioned a lot), Editing, Production Design, and Original Song (with a composition by H.E.R.). Warner Bros seems to know it has a real hopeful on its hands as this has been added to the Sundance schedule later this month.
Bottom line: the social media reaction indicates critics aren’t betrayed by Judas and it has officially announced its way into Academy consideration. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Momentum continued today for Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland to be a major Oscar player with the announcement of the National Society of Film Critics awards. It took 4 categories today – Best Picture, Director, Actress (Frances McDormand) and Cinematography.
The conventional wisdom right now is that if the Academy goes with the critics darling, Nomadland could be on its way to a Best Picture victory in April. Of course, they don’t always do that. They did last year with Parasite. They didn’t the year before with Roma.
The Society actually names their first and second runners-up in the races and it was First Cow and Never Rarely Sometimes Always taking those spots. Both certainly have chances for Academy attention in the big competition, but I’ve yet to put either in my picks. Cow‘s maker Kelly Reichardt was second runner-up for her direction while Steve McQueen was first runner-up for Small Axe (which is not eligible for Oscar consideration since it’s a TV project).
McDormand is almost sure to get one of the five actress slots at the Oscars, though a win is much more questionable in a crowded field. Runners-up from the critics were Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) and Sidney Flanagan for Never Rarely.
In Best Actor, Delroy Lindo picked up another prize for Da 5 Bloods with Chadwick Boseman in Rainey and Riz Ahmed for Sound of Metal following. All three appear likely to make the final cut at the Oscars. Boseman was second runner-up in Supporting Actor for Bloods behind Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) and Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). For Raci and Turman, they need as much critical love as possible to contend for Oscar.
Maria Bakalova picked up yet another reviewers award for her breakout role in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. I still question whether the Academy follows suit as comedic performers always have a tough time making the cut. Yet she’s certainly making her case. Runners-up were Amanda Seyfried (Mank) and Youn Yuh-jung (Minari).
The screenplay award went to Never Rarely Sometimes Always with First Cow and I’m Thinking of Ending Things in 2nd and 3rd. Best Foreign Language Film went to Romania’s Collective.
Bottom line: Nomadland is having a fine run through the critics honors as it treks toward Oscar recognition.
My initial 2021 Oscar predictions for the films released in 2020 (and January and February of this year) have arrived! And the new year’s estimates brings the first change in my nine Best Picture nominees in many weeks. Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman now joins the group and that leaves out News of the World.
In Best Director, I have George C. Wolfe now in for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and that drops Lee Isaac Chung for Minari. Another change is in Supporting Actor with Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7) back in the final five over Sound of Metal‘s Paul Raci. In Original Screenplay, Da 5 Bloods makes it back ahead of Soul.
You can read all the movement below! Happy New Year and I’ll be back at it next week…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 5)
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
7. The Father (PR: 6)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
9. Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
10. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
11. News of the World (PR: 9)
12. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. First Cow (PR: 15)
15. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 14)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 4)
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
8. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
9. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
10. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)
8. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 9)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)
10. Robin Wright, Land (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
8. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
9. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 8)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
8. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 10)
9. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
10. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
4. Minari (PR: 3)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 5)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah(PR: 8)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 7)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. The Father (PR: 2)
3. One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 6)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mauritanian
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)
8. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Connected
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Time (PR: 2)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. The Dissident (PR: 4)
5. Boys State (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Crip Camp (PR: 7)
8. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 9)
9. Collective (PR: 8)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 6)
4. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 3)
5. A Sun (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
7. Collective (PR: 5)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)
9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: 6)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)
7. News of the World (PR: 6)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. The Glorias (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 4)
4. The Father (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
10. Tenet (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
5. Pinocchio (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 6)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
8. Mulan (PR: 7)
9. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emma (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 4)
4. Minari (PR: 5)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 8)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 3)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 8)
8. “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: 7)
9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
10. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Free” from The One and Only Ivan
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. Mulan (PR: 2)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
5. Emma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 9)
8. Tenet (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. Soul (PR: 7)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Prom (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Da 5 Bloods
Mulan
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 6)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
8. Greyhound (PR: 9)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
10. Dolittle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mank
And that equates to the following numbers in nominations for films:
11 Nominations
Mank
9 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods
4 Nominations
Minari, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, News of the World, Promising Young Woman, Soul
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Emma, Judas and the Black Messiah, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, Night of the Kings, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Pinocchio, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
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