If nothing else, Sony Pictures Animation’s The Emoji Movie will go down in film lore as having Sir Patrick Stewart provide the voice of what is commonly called the “poop emoji”. He’s one of several famous faces lending voice to those things we send on our phones all day. They include T.J. Miller, Anna Faris, James Corden, Sofia Vergara, Christina Aguilera, and Rob Riggle.
The reported $50 million budgeted 3D computer-animated comedy isn’t the first pic based on something we associate with our iPhones and droids. That would be last summer’s The Angry Birds Movie, which debuted to $38 million. I don’t see Emoji quite reaching those numbers, yet I don’t see it as low as the $23 million earned out of the gate for this summer’s Captain Underpants, another non-sequel ‘toon.
I am forecasting this will basically fall between those debuts. In doing so, it may create a serious three-way battle for box office supremacy next weekend with the premiere of Atomic Blonde and the second weekend of Dunkirk.
The Emoji Movie opening weekend prediction: $28.4 million
This should be one interesting weekend at the box office as four new titles make their debut: Pixar sequel Cars 3, Scarlett Johansson bachelorette comedy Rough Night, Tupac Shakur biopic All Eyez on Me, and shark attack thriller 47 Meters Down. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, Cars 3 should easily take its place atop the charts (as pretty much all Pixar features do). However, my estimate for it puts it below both of its predecessors.
Wonder Woman displayed a remarkable hold in its sophomore frame (more on that below) and should hold the #2 spot over the influx of newbies.
If there’s one picture with breakout potential, it’s All Eyez on Me. Just two summers ago, we saw Straight Outta Compton greatly exceed all expectations when it grossed over $60 million out of the gate. Eyez doesn’t seem to have that kind of buzz going for it, but I’m predicting a sturdy third place showing.
That puts Rough Night in fourth with a rather ho-hum debut. It seems to be sliding down considerably from its original $25 million projections.
The Mummy stumbled in its premiere (more on that below as well) and I foresee a hefty dip in weekend #2 for fifth place.
Maybe it’s not wise to bet against audience love for sharks (The Shallows proved that last summer), but I’ve got 47 Meters Down earning the least among the fresh quartet for a sixth place showing.
And with that, my top 6 projections for the bustling weekend ahead:
1. Cars 3
Predicted Gross: $57.8 million
2. Wonder Woman
Predicted Gross: $32.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)
3. All Eyez on Me
Predicted Gross: $24.4 million
4. Rough Night
Predicted Gross: $15.1 million
5. The Mummy
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 58%)
6. 47 Meters Down
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
Box Office Results (June 9-11)
As mentioned, Wonder Woman continued its terrific run by dropping only 43% (a noteworthy hold for its genre) to $58.5 million. This topped my $49.5M projection and brought its ten-day total to $206 million. The superhero flick stands a decent shot at overtaking Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 as the season’s hottest ticket.
Tom Cruise’s The Mummy was hindered by poor reviews and word of mouth with a second place opening at $31.6 million (a bit under my $34.7M forecast). While it’s doing better overseas, this will undoubtedly be a major disappointment stateside.
Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie was third in its sophomore frame with $12.1 million, under my $14.1M projection for a so-so overall gross of $44M.
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales was fourth with $10.7 million (I said $10.2M) to bring its tally to $135M.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It made $6.3 million and has earned $366M total.
That’s because critically acclaimed horror pic It Comes at Night had a soft showing with just $5.9 million in sixth (I said $9.5M). While reviews were strong, audience reaction has been negative and look for this to fade very quickly.
Finally, the combo of military themes and dogs gave Megan Leavey an 8th place debut with $3.7 million (I said $3.3M).
Tom Cruise will attempt to take on the bonanza that is WonderWoman this weekend and it will probably come up short. Universal monster pic TheMummy opens wide along with criticality lauded horror flick ItComesatNight and military themed biopic MeganLeavey. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
Mr. Cruise looks headed for a second place showing as I foresee WonderWoman falling just a bit over 50%. There is a chance that Mummy over performs and gets around $50 million, but I’m not seeing it right now.
CaptainUnderpants should be in third while the four spot could be a battle between PiratesoftheCaribbean in its third frame and ItComesatNight. The latter also has a chance to exceed my estimate, but I’ve got under double digits.
As for MeganLeavey, I’m anticipating a muted premiere at $3.3 million, which would put it in 8th place.
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:
1. WonderWoman
Predicted Gross: $49.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. TheMummy
Predicted Gross: $34.7 million
3. CaptainUnderpants: TheFirstEpicMovie
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)
4. PiratesoftheCaribbean: DeadMenTellNoTales
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 54%)
5. ItComesatNight
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
BoxOfficeResults (June2–4)
DC had a critical hit and now they have a huge box office smash as WonderWoman lassoed $103.2 million, topping my $98.3M projection. It set the all-time opening record for a female directed motion picture. The road ahead looks bright with very positive word of mouth.
CaptainUnderpants was second and came in on the lower end of expectations with $23.8 million, under my $27.4M estimate. The Dreamworks animated tale will hope for smallish drops in the weekends ahead, but there’s competition coming with Cars3 and DespicableMe3 this month.
PiratesoftheCaribbean dropped to third with $22 million, in line with my $21.6M prediction for a two-week total of $115M.
GuardiansoftheGalaxyVol. 2 was fourth with $9.8 million (I said $10M) for $355M overall.
Baywatch held up a bit better than I figured in weekend #2, placing fifth with $8.7 million compared to my $7.5M forecast. It’s earned $41M.
After a rather disappointing Memorial Day weekend at the box office (more on that below), June rolls in with two major releases: Wonder Woman, the latest in the DC Cinematic Universe and Dreamworks animated feature Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
There’s little question that Wonder Woman will open at #1, but there’s wide variations on how much it will gross out of the gate. The pic has been garnering glowing reviews and that should help (its Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 96%). I currently have it in the low to mid 90s with the thought that the number could be trending up.
A potential battle may emerge for the runner-up position between Underpants and the second weekend of Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales. However, my estimate puts the non-Sparrow Captain just aheadat #2, as I believe Pirates will suffer a hefty decline.
Holdovers Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Baywatch (which should tumble pretty far after a bad debut) should round out the top five. And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:
1. Wonder Woman
Predicted Gross: $98.3 million
2. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie
Predicted Gross: $27.4 million
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
Predicted Gross: $21.6 million (representing a drop of 61%)
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 50%)
5. Baywatch
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 59%)
Box Office Results (May 26-29)
Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales easily topped the four-day holiday weekend. However, it did so with the lowest debut of any of the five films since the original in 2003. The Johnny Depp pic grossed $78.4 million over the long frame, right in line with my $78.6M estimate. It is highly likely this will turn out to be the lowest domestic grosser of the franchise thus far.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 was second with $27.1 million (I was a touch lower at $25.3M) to bring its total to $340M.
Baywatch, with wretched reviews and so-so word of mouth, performed a box office belly flop with $27.7 million from its Thursday to Monday roll out, under my projection of $39.4M. That put in in third for Friday to Monday portion of the weekend.
News was bad for Alien: Covenant as well. In its sophomore frame, it tumbled to $13.3 million for fourth (well under my $19.9M forecast).
Everything, Everything rounded out the top five with $7.6 million (I said $6.8M) for a two week tally of $23M.
Dreamworks is the first studio with an animated feature for the summer season as Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie hits screens next weekend. Based on a series of well-known childrens books by Dav Pilkey, the film features the voices of Kevin Hart, Ed Helms, Nick Kroll, Jordan Peele, and Thomas Middleditch. The screenplay comes from Nicholas Stoller, who made last year’s under performing Storks.
Underpants is certainly more of a question mark than some of the other animated tales this season – namely Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3, both of which arrive in June. That said, Dreamworks has a mostly solid history of producing hits. 2014’s Mr. Peabody & Sherman debuted to $32 million, 2015’s Home exceeded expectations with $52 million, Trolls made $46 million last fall, and The Boss Baby opened to $50 million in March, outpacing its projections.
While I don’t see this effort getting past $40 million (though it could happen), I believe a high 20s to maybe low 30s debut is in the cards as the studio likely hopes for a sequel (based on the title).
Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie opening weekend prediction: $27.4 million
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