Box Office Predictions: April 25-27

This is the final weekend of the movie calendar before the May onslaught of potential summer blockbusters arrive, including The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, X-Men: Days of Future Past, and Maleficent. On Friday, we’ll see a trio of new titles debut: the rom com The Other Woman, action thriller Brick Mansions, and horror flick The Quiet Ones. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

As for holdovers, I’m expecting drops in the mid 30s-40s for last weekend’s champ Captain America: The Winter Soldier and runners-up Heaven Is for Real and Rio 2. If that is indeed the case, it could mean fifth and sixth place debuts for Brick Mansions and The Quiet Ones, unless they perform better than expected. I believe The Other Woman should generate enough business to be #1, though if it disappoints it could open the door for a fourth weekend at the top spot for Captain America or possibly a rise to #1 for Rio 2. And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:

1. The Other Woman

Predicted Gross: $18.1 million

2. Rio 2

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)

3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 44%)

4. Heaven Is for Real

Predicted Gross: $13 million (representing a drop of 42%)

5. Brick Mansions

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million

6. The Quiet Ones

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

Box Office Results (April 18-20)

Well… when you mess up, I guess do it big time and, boy, did I ever with Transcendence, the Johnny Depp sci fi thriller. It absolutely tanked at the box office with a terrible $10.8 million fourth place opening. My prediction? $30.8 million. Ouch. This is yet another flop for Depp after disappointments like Dark Shadows and The Lone Ranger. Poor reviews and a weak marketing campaign hurt it and I mistakenly believed Depp’s name would lead it to a respectable opening. Far from it.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier managed a three-peat at #1 over Easter Weekend with $25.5 million, holding better than my $18.9 million. Another surprise besides the Transcendence disaster was the fantastic start for the faith-based Heaven Is for Real. The pic grossed $22.5 million for the three day weekend and $29.5 million from its five day Wednesday start, trumping my respective predictions of $17.5M and $24.8M. This spring has been a great one for Christian themed pictures, including Son of God, God’s Not Dead, and Noah. #3 went to Rio 2 in its sophomore frame with $22.1 million, a bit under my $25.9M projection.

Two more weak debuts marked the weekend – the horror sequel A Haunted House 2 flopped with $8.8 million for fifth place, below my $10.6M projection. Disney’s nature doc Bears failed to bring in an audience with a meager $4.7 million for tenth place. I predicted $8.8 million.

I’ll try to do better next time, my blog reading friends!

Box Office Predictions: April 18-20

On this coming Easter weekend, four new titles make their debut at multiplexes: the Johnny Depp sci-fi thriller Transcendence, the Christian themed drama Heaven Is for Real, the horror parody sequel A Haunted House 2, and the Disney nature doc Bears. You can find my individual prediction posts on each right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/transcendence-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/heaven-is-for-real-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/a-haunted-house-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/bears-box-office-prediction/

My predictions reflect a belief that Transcendence should open first, though it may face competition from Rio 2 in its second weekend. That animated sequel should suffer a rather small decline that isn’t as steep as last weekend’s returning champ Captain America: The Winter Soldier.

Heaven Is for Real could be poised for a solid opening with its shrewd Easter debut while I see fairly disappointing results for A Haunted House 2 and Bears.

And with that – my top six predictions for the holiday weekend:

1. Transcendence

Predicted Gross: $30.8 million

2. Rio 2

Predicted Gross: $25.9 million (representing a drop of 34%)

3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. Heaven Is for Real

Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (predicted five-day opening of $24.8 million)

5. A Haunted House 2

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

6. Bears

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

Box Office Results (April 11-13)

As predicted, Captain America: The Winter Soldier held onto the top spot in its sophomore weekend with $41.2 million, a bit below my $45.3M prediction. The animated Rio 2 opened right on pace with its predecessor with $39.3 million (the first did $39.2M out of the gate), slightly below my $41.7M estimate. The horror flick Oculus had a middling start with $12 million for third place, just above my $11M projection while Kevin Costner’s Draft Day had a weak fourth place debut with only $9.7 million, under my $13.2M estimate. Noah rounded out the top five with $7.5 million, on target with my $7.4M prediction.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time.

Box Office Predictions: April 11-13

A trio of new films open this weekend against the second weekend of the massive Marvel hit Captain America: The Winter Soldier. They are the animated sequel Rio 2, horror pic Oculus, and sports themed comedy/drama Draft Day. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/rio-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/draft-day-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/oculus-box-office-prediction/

There is no question that Rio 2 stands the greatest chance at taking the top spot over Captain. However, while I believe it should be a close race, I think Steve Rogers and company will maintain their #1 ranking. As for Draft Day and Oculus, there are some box office prognosticators who have each opening higher than my estimates, but I’m predicting they’ll both post lackluster results. Darren Aronofksy’s Noah should round out the top five in weekend #3.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $45.3 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. Rio 2

Predicted Gross: $41.7 million

3. Draft Day

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Oculus

Predicted Gross: $11 million

5. Noah

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 56%)

Box Office Results (April 4-6)

As mentioned, Captain America: The Winter Soldier got off to a fantastic debut with $95 million, surpassing my $86.3M projection. This represents the best April opening of all time, beating out Fast Five from three years back. The opening continues the trend of Marvel Studios entries opening higher than their predecessors post Avengers.

In weekend number two, Noah fell a bit further than I figured with $17 million, below my $19.6M estimate. With a precipitous 61% fall, the mediocre word of mouth clearly affected the epic in its sophomore frame. Taking third in weekend #3 was Divergent with $12.9 million, right on track with my $12.8M prediction. I incorrectly had the Christian themed hit God’s Not Dead out of the top six, but it dipped only 12% for a fourth place showing at $7.7 million. Muppets Most Wanted was fifth with $6.2 million, slightly below my $7.1M estimate. Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel was sixth with $6.1 million. My prediction? $6.1 million! Gold star! Finally, Mr. Peabody and Sherman was seventh with $5.1 million, under my $6.3M projection.

That’s all for now, readers! Be sure to check back Monday to see how smart or not smart I am!

Box Office Predictions: April 4-6

There’s only one new movie opening this weekend and that’s no accident because it’s a massive one – Captain America: The Winter Soldier, the sequel to the 2011 Marvel original. Steve Rogers and company should be poised to have the biggest opening of the year so far by a wide margin. You can read my detailed post predicting its debut here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/30/captain-america-the-winter-soldier-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, last weekend’s champ Noah got off to a strong start. However, its weak C Cinemascore grade indicates audiences weren’t exactly (ahem) swept away by it and it could suffer a precipitous decline in its sophomore frame. In its third weekend, Divergent is likely to lose around half it audience as it did in week two. Numbers 4-6 should be a close contest between Muppets Most Wanted, Mr. Peabody & Sherman, and The Grand Budapest Hotel.

And with that – we’ll do top 6 predictions for this weekend:

1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $86.3 million

2. Noah

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)

3. Divergent

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million (representing a drop of 50%)

4. Muppets Most Wanted

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Mr. Peabody & Sherman

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 31%)

6. The Grand Budapest Hotel

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 28%)

Box Office Results (March 28-30)

As mentioned before, Darren Aronofsky’s controversial Biblical epic Noah easily took the top spot with $43.7 million, surging a bit ahead of my $39.7M forecast. With Son of God and God’s Not Dead all posting big results, you can count on plenty of other Bible themed pictures over the next couple of years or so. Divergent held up slightly better than my prognosis in its second weekend with $25.6 million compared to my $23M estimate. Muppets Most Wanted also displayed a better hold the second time around than I figured with $11.2 million (my prediction: $9.6M). I incorrectly had Mr. Peabody & Sherman outside the top six in its fourth weekend but it held strong with $9 million. The aforementioned God’s Not Dead was fifth with $8.7 million – right above my $7.9M estimate. Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel expanded its theater count and took sixth with $8.5 million, right on target with my $8.6M prediction.

Finally, Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Sabotage suffered a disastrous debut with an awful $5.2 million for seventh place. I predicted $8.4M. Clearly Ah-nuld has completely lost his luster with moviegoers and this represents his third bomb in a row after The Last Stand and Escape Plan.

That’s all for now, folks!

Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction

The Marvel Studios gravy train keeps on rolling this Friday with Captain America: The Winter Soldier, the sequel to the 2011 original and most importantly – the continuation of The Avengers saga that broke box office records in 2012. Chris Evans returns as the title character alongside Scarlett Johannson as Black Widow and Samuel L. Jackson as Nick Fury with Anthony Mackie, Sebastian Shaw, and Robert Redford (!) joining the regulars.

Buzz on The Winter Soldier is red hot and it stands at a terrific 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. Marvel films have opened at significant bumps following The Avengers and the evidence is clear. The pre-Avengers sequel Iron Man 2 opened to $128 million while the post-Avengers entry Iron Man 3 premiered to $174 million. The pre-Avengers original Thor debuted to $65 million while its post-Avengers follow-up Thor: The Dark World came in at $85 million. Like the first Thor, the original Captain America opened at $65 million.

So it stands to reason that the sequel would make the $85 million that the second Thor achieved, right? Well… yeah, pretty much! An opening in that range seems like a safe bet. It could overachieve and approach $100 million, but I’m going by the numbers we have on file and predicting it’ll just outpace the Thor sequel.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier opening weekend prediction: $86.3 million

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