In 2017, Vicky Krieps drew critical praise for her work opposite Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread, but she did not gather any Oscar attention. Recently seen in M. Night Shyamalan’s Old, the actress headlines the historical revisionist biopic Corsage. Krieps plays Empress Elisabeth of Austria circa the late 1870s. From director Marie Kreutzer, the pic is receiving pleasing notices from its Cannes screening. The result is a 100% current Rotten Tomatoes score.
IFC Films has already picked distribution rights and I assume they’ll mount a campaign. The reviews are strong enough that Krieps could be at least on the radar screen for Best Actress. Production Design and Costume Design are possibilities as well.
The real question is whether this generates enough buzz to be in the mix a few months from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
When legendary filmmaker George Miller was last behind the camera, 2015’s Mad Max: Fury Road garnered 10 nominations and a ceremony high 6 victories in tech categories. Before he moves to Fury‘s prequel Furiosa, his in-between picture is Three Thousand Years of Longing and it’s premiered at Cannes before its late summer bow.
The fantastical romance casts Tilda Swinton as an academic whose life is turned upside down when she encounters a genie in the form of Idris Elba. If the movie is wishing for Oscar attention, the answer is cloudy as to whether that is granted. Early reviews have resulted in a 78% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Some critical reaction is gushing while some is decidedly more mixed.
Miller is, of course, known for visual skills and Longing could be in play for its Cinematography (by the great John Seale), Production Design, and Visual Effects. As for the leads, Swinton is (rather shockingly) just a one-time nominee when she won for 2007’s Michael Clayton. Elba is no time nominee having notably been snubbed for 2015’s Beasts of No Nation (for which he took home the SAG).
My feeling is that this would have to vault into serious Best Picture discussion (and for Miller’s direction) for Swinton and Elba to be viable. This will certainly have its vocal supporters based on Cannes chatter, but I’m not confident it will be enough. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Emily Watson scored a pair of Oscar nominations back in the 90s – one for her debut performance in 1996’s Breaking the Waves and another for Hilary and Jackie (1998). It’s been a long break since then though she recently received an Emmy nod for Chernobyl.
God’s Creatures is an Irish psychological drama from directors Saela Davis and Anna Rose Holmer and it’s premiered at Cannes. Early critical reaction indicates this is Watson’s most impressive big screen role in some time and there’s additional praise for costar Paul Mescal.
With an 88% Rotten Tomatoes rating, the small sample of reviews indicates only Watson could realistically be championed come awards time. Distributor A24 would really need to mount an aggressive campaign for that to occur. I question whether that’s doable considering the amount of competition likely to come. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
James Gray has been a favorite of the critical community when it comes to writer/directors, but that hasn’t translated to Academy attention. The sole nod for his seven previous pictures belongs to 2019’s Ad Astra and a Sound Mixing nomination.
His latest is Armageddon Time and it’s a Queens set autobiographical tale taking place in the early 1980s. The film has debuted at Cannes and Focus Features will almost certainly make an awards push for it. Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong, Anthony Hopkins, and newcomers Banks Repeta and Jaylin Webb headline the cast.
The coming-of-age drama is receiving its share of kudos with the embargo lifted. That praise is not universal as other reviewers and bloggers are calling it a disappointment.
There was some question as to whether Strong or Hopkins would be the most likely recipient of the studio’s Supporting Actor push. Based on early buzz, I’d bet on the latter with Hathaway in the mix for Supporting Actress. I wouldn’t look for either to make my predicted five when I update my list on my blog. Other possibilities include Best Original Screenplay or Darius Khondji’s cinematography. However, with the somewhat mixed reaction stemming from overseas, Armageddon may simply fizzle out as the busy time of the season heats up in a few months. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Cannes Film Festival is underway and you can expect to see a few Oscar Predictions write-ups coming your way! It begins with Final Cut which opened the French shindig yesterday.
Known as Coupez! in its native country, this is the latest feature from Oscar winning director Michel Hazanavicius. Back in 2011, he was the big winner when his silent pic The Artist took Best Picture and Director (as well as three other gold trophies).
Since that time, his follow-up efforts have attracted zero Oscar buzz. This zombie comedy is a remake of the 2017 Japanese pic One Cut of the Dead. Don’t expect this Cut to get Mr. H back on the Academy’s radar. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at a so-so 63% and it simply doesn’t sound like an awards player. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Top Gun: Maverick was supposed to arrive a mere 34 years after its iconic predecessor. Due to numerous COVID delays, it now hits theaters on May 27th and some 36 years behind the original. By nearly all accounts, Tom Cruise and the filmmakers have landed the plane.
Ahead of its Cannes premiere, the review embargo has lapsed for Maverick and the Rotten Tomatoes score is a sizzling 96%. Nearly all critics are calling it an improvement over the ’86 blockbuster and it could be in line to give Cruise his largest opening and overall hit of his career (my box office prediction will arrive next week).
Three and a half decades back, part one caught the attention of Academy voters in four categories. The Berlin theme “Take My Breath Away” won Best Song and Gun nabbed nods for Film Editing, Sound, and Sound Effects Editing. All those races are in play again in one form or another.
Best Sound has been condensed to one category and it’s a near lock that the sequel will play there. Film Editing, Cinematography, and Visual Effects are also possibilities. Then there’s the sound of Lady Gaga’s voice. The superstar contributed the track “Hold My Hand” and it could be hard to beat. Ms. Gaga is poised for her third Song nomination behind 2015’s “Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground and “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (which won). She also shares Score credit with Hans Zimmer (who just won a trophy for Dune) and Harold Faltermeyer (best known for his Beverly Hills Cop tune “Axel F”).
Let’s assume Sound and Song are gimmes. With the aforementioned others, we could be looking at a handful of mentions. Will the Academy go beyond the tech derbies? It looks like Maverick will be a gigantic earner and crowdpleaser. I have no doubt there will be a push from Paramount for Best Picture recognition and Cruise in Best Actor. If so, it would be his fourth acting nod. There were two in lead for 1989’s Born on the Fourth of July and 1996’s Jerry Maguire and a supporting mention for 1999’s Magnolia. He’s never made a victorious trip to the podium.
I’m skeptical about it playing in the major leagues, but wins in Sound and Song are doable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Welcome to the first ranked Oscar predictions of the 2022 season for the 95th Academy Awards! I’ll be doing these every few days (once a week or every two weeks) for the high-profile races of Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. In the fall (maybe earlier), this will expand to all categories covering feature lengths films.
For BP, I will list 25 possibilities with 15 hopefuls in the others. Some quick caveats that always apply – titles of the pictures will change. Just this week, David O. Russell’s Canterbury Glass became Amsterdam and Avatar 2 is now Avatar: The Way of Water.
Actors listed in lead will become supporting players and vice versa. Some movies will be pushed to 2023. And, of course, titles listed on the first day of May will become commercial and critical disappointments and drop off the list. Some pics and performances I’m not even considering at the moment will rise during festivals like Cannes, Toronto, Telluride, and Venice.
So let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. The Fabelmans
4. The Son
5. Women Talking
6. She Said
7. Bardo
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once
9. The Whale
10. Rustin
Other Possibilities:
11. Amsterdam
12. White Noise
13. Poor Things
14. Tar
15. Till
16. Empire of Light
17. Avatar: The Way of Water
18. Don’t Worry Darling
19. Next Goal Wins
20. Thirteen Lives
21. The Banshees of Inisherin
22. Elvis
23. The Woman King
24. Three Thousand Years of Longing
25. Armageddon Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo
Other Possibilities:
6. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7. Florian Zeller, The Son
8. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale
9. Maria Schrader, She Said
10. George C. Wolfe, Rustin
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
12. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
13. Noah Baumbach, White Noise
14. David O. Russell, Amsterdam
15. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon
2. Regina King, Shirley
3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Carey Mulligan, She Said
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar
7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody
9. Emma Stone, Poor Things
10. Laura Dern, The Son
11. Viola Davis, The Woman King
12. Greta Gerwig, White Noise
13. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run
14. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
15. Tilda Swinton, Three Thousand Years of Longing
It’s been an entire week since The Slap… check that, the 94th Academy Awards where CODA parlayed its Sundance buzz from January 2021 all the way to a Best Picture victory.
That also means I’ve managed to wait a whole week without speculation for the next Academy Awards which will hopefully be a slap free zone. So what are some titles that could be vying for attention?
On May 27th and after numerous delays, Top Gun: Maverick will find Tom Cruise returning to his iconic role some 36 years after the original. There’s a decent chance it could be up for similar prizes that its predecessor landed like Sound, Film Editing, and Song (courtesy of Lady Gaga apparently). Visual Effects is a possibility as well.
My weekly Oscar prediction posts won’t begin until mid to late August. In the meantime, you’ll get individualized write-ups for pics that open or screen at festivals.
Yet for today – I feel the need. The need to identify 21 other 2022 titles that might end up on the Academy’s radar. Enjoy!
Armageddon Time
Despite acclaimed movies like The Lost City of Z and Ad Astra, James Gray has yet to connect with awards voters. This drama, rumored to be centered on his Queens upbringing, is the next hopeful and features a stellar cast including Anne Hathaway, Anthony Hopkins, and Jeremy Strong. Release Date: TBD
Avatar 2
The 2009 original amassed nine nominations and won took home three. The first sequel (there’s three more on the way) arrives in December from James Cameron. Will it capture the critical and box office magic of part one? That’s impossible to know at this juncture, but one can safely assume it’ll be up for some tech categories like Sound and Visual Effects. Release Date: December 16th
Babylon
Damien Chazelle is no stranger to the big dance. Whiplash was a BP nominee and J.K. Simmons won Supporting Actor. Chazelle took Director for his follow-up La La Land along with Emma Stone’s Actress victory and it almost famously took BP. First Man nabbed four nominations, but missed the top of the line races. Babylon is a period drama focused on Hollywood’s Golden Age and should be right up the Academy’s alley. The cast includes Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, and Tobey Maguire. Release Date: December 25th
Canterbury Glass
Robbie also turns up in David O. Russell’s latest ensemble piece. Anytime he’s behind the camera, Oscar nods typically follow (think The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle). Slated for November, the dramedy also features Christian Bale, John David Washington, Rami Malek, Zoe Saldana, Robert De Niro, Mike Myers, and… Chris Rock. Release Date: November 4th
Elvis
Arriving in June but with a Cannes unveiling in May, Baz Luhrmann’s musical bio of The King stars Austin Butler in the title role and Tom Hanks as The Colonel. If this doesn’t contend for the major awards, I would still anticipate potential tech recognition (Production Design, Sound, etc…). Release Date: June 24th
Empire of Light
Sam Mendes was likely in the runner-up position in 2019 for Picture and Director (behind Parasite) with 1917. His follow-up is an English set romance starring Olivia Colman (who would be going for her fourth nomination in five years), Michael Ward, and Colin Firth. Release Date: TBD
Everything Everywhere All at Once
From two filmmakers known collectively as Daniels, Once is already out in limited release with spectacular reviews (97% on RT). The sci-fi action comedy might be too bizarre for the Academy, but I wouldn’t count it out as its admirers are vocal. Picture, Director, Actress (Michelle Yeoh), and Original Screenplay are all on the table. Release Date: out in limited release, opens wide April 8th
The Fabelmans
Steven Spielberg directs a semi-autobiographical tale and cowrites with his Lincoln and West Side Story scribe Tony Kushner. The cast includes Michelle Williams, Seth Rogen, and Paul Dano. Needless to say, this is a major contender on paper. Release Date: November 23rd
Killers of the Flower Moon
Alongside The Fabelmans, this might be the most obvious nominee from a personnel standpoint. Martin Scorsese helms this western crime drama featuring Jesse Plemons, Lily Gladstone, and his two frequent collaborators Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro. Apple TV just became the first streamer to get a BP victory with CODA. This could be the second in a row. Release Date: November
Poor Things
In 2018, The Favourite scored a whopping ten nominations. Based on an acclaimed 1992 novel, Poor Things is Yorgos Lanthimos’s follow-up and it reunites him with Emma Stone along with Willem Dafoe, Ramy Youssef, and Mark Ruffalo. The plot sounds bizarre but it could also be an Oscar bait role for Stone and others. Release Date: TBD
Rustin
One of Netflix’s contenders is George C. Wolfe’s profile of gay civil rights activist Bayard Rustin (played by Colman Domingo). In 2020, Wolfe directed Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman to nods for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Look for Domingo to be a competitor and the supporting cast includes Chris Rock (maybe he will be back at the show), Glynn Turman, and Audra McDonald. Release Date: TBD
See How They Run
The 1950s set murder mystery could provide 27-year-old Saoirse Ronan with an opportunity to land her fifth nomination. Sam Rockwell, David Oyelowo, Adrien Brody, and Ruth Wilson are among the supporting players. Tom George directs. Release Date: TBD
She Said
Five years after the scandal rocked Hollywood, She Said from Maria Schrader recounts the New York Times sexual misconduct investigation into Harvey Weinstein. Zoe Kazan, Carey Mulligan, and Patricia Clarkson lead the cast. Release Date: November 18th
The Son
Florian Zeller won Best Adapted Screenplay in 2020 for The Father along with Anthony Hopkins taking Best Actor. This follow-up (based on the director’s play) finds Hopkins reprising his Oscar-winning part in supporting fashion. Other cast members seeking awards attention include Hugh Jackman, Laura Dern, and Vanessa Kirby. Release Date: TBD
TAR
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Todd Field behind the camera. Previous efforts In the Bedroom and Little Children received 8 nominations between them. A decade and a half following Children comes this Berlin set drama with Cate Blanchett, Noemie Merlant, and Mark Strong. Release Date: October 7th
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Scheduled for a Cannes bow in May, Longing is a fantasy romance from the legendary mind of George Miller (who last made Mad Max: Fury Road which won six tech Oscars). Idris Elba and Tilda Swinton star. Release Date: TBD
The Whale
Darren Aronofsky directed Mickey Rourke to a comeback narrative nod for 2008’s The Wrestler. Two years later, his follow-up Black Swan earned Natalie Portman a statue. Brendan Fraser is hoping for the same treatment with The Whale as he plays a 600 pound man attempting to reconnect with his daughter. Costars include Sadie Sink, Hong Chau, and Samantha Morton. I’d expect Makeup and Hairstyling could also be in play with this. Release Date: TBD
White Noise
Not a remake of the Michael Keaton supernatural thriller from 2005, this is Noah Baumbach’s follow-up to Marriage Story. Based on a 1985 novel, it’s the filmmaker’s first picture based on other source material. Marriage landed three acting nods (with Laura Dern winning Supporting Actress). The cast here includes frequent Baumbach collaborator Adam Driver, real-life partner Greta Gerwig, Raffey Cassidy, Andre Benjamin, Alessandro Nivola, and Don Cheadle. This could be Netflix’s strongest contender. Release Date: TBD
The Woman King
Expect this West Afrian set historical epic from Gina Prince-Bythewood to be heavily touted by Sony with awards bait roles for leads Viola Davis and Thuso Mbedu. The supporting cast includes John Boyega and Lashana Lynch. Release Date: September 16th
Women Talking
Based on a 2018 novel, Sarah Polley writes and directs this drama focused on eight Mennonite women and their story of abuse. The sterling cast includes Frances McDormand, Jessie Buckley, Ben Whishaw, Claire Foy, and Rooney Mara. Release Date: TBD
And that’s just a small preview of the features that could materialize for the 95th Academy Awards! As always, the speculation on this site will continue throughout the year and into the next. Stay tuned…
Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s three hour Japanese drama Drive My Car is the next Case Of post covering the 10 Best Picture nominees for this year’s Academy Awards. If you didn’t catch the first three, they’re right here:
Since premiering at the Cannes Film Festival last summer where it won Best Screenplay, Hamaguchi’s import is one of the critical darlings of 2021. It holds the best Rotten Tomatoes score of the bunch at 98%. Car performed better than expected with a total of four nods: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and International Feature Film,.
The Case Against Drive My Car
The film’s inclusion into the BP derby was a question mark going into nomination morning. While it hopes to become the second non-English language pic to win the big prize (two years after Parasite), its real possibility for a victory lies with the international race.
The Verdict
Drive My Car is an easy pick to take International Feature Film and anything else being called would constitute a major upset. However, do not expect the raves to put it in gear for one in Best Picture.
The French language animated effort The Summit of the Gods premiered at the Cannes Film Festival this summer and is in limited release prior to its Netflix bow on November 30th. From director Patrick Imbert, Summit is based on a Japanese manga series and is receiving praise from critics across the board with a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score.
The mountaineering tale set around Mount Everest could be a trendy spoiler pick to make the five selections competing for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars. It’s certainly doable, but it will need to climb past several other viable contenders. Disney has three potential hopefuls with Encanto, Luca, and Raya and the Last Dragon. Foreign competitors Flee and Belle may both make the cut and Netflix also has The Mitchells vs. the Machines.
That competition makes it a challenge for Summit‘s inclusion, but the solid reviews could assist in nabbing it a spot. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
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