Maciek Hamela’s documentary In the Rearview follows the harrowing journey of Ukrainian refugees to Poland after the Russian invasion. It premiered at the Cannes Film Festival last summer and is now one of 15 shortlisted features in contention for Documentary Feature at the Oscars.
Having played the festival circuit over the past several months, Rearview sports a 100% RT score. It has not been much of a player with major precursors. 20 Days in Mariupol is higher profile and covers similar subject matter. It seen as a potential threat to win the Academy Award.
I have not had this in my top 10 of possibilities since the shortlist was unveiled. Don’t expect it to vault upwards before my final forecast later this week. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Icelandic drama Godland premiered at Cannes all the way back in May of 2022, but didn’t release until 2023 in most regions. That’s what it’s on the shortlisted 15 for International Feature Film at the forthcoming Oscars. Hlynur Pálmason directs. His previous effort, 2019’s A White, White Day, was also Iceland’s submission for this category. However, it didn’t make the final 15 in contention.
Reviews for Godland are at 92% on RT. While it’s been picked up some kudos at regional festivals, it hasn’t shown up for any major Academy precursors like the Globes or Critics Choice. That makes me think it’s unlikely to be Iceland’s second competitor for this award behind 1991’s Children of Nature. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Acclaimed German filmmaker Wim Wenders could have two bites at the Oscar apple in 2023. His fictional work Perfect Days is the Japanese entry for Best International Feature Film and it stands an excellent shot at making the eventual quintet.
The other possibility lies in the Documentary Feature race with Anselm. A 3D doc focused on painter and sculptor Anselm Kiefer, it premiered at the Cannes Film Festival earlier this year. It is scheduled for a limited stateside release on December 8th. Reviews thus far are mostly complimentary with an 89% Rotten Tomatoes meter.
However, I’m not convinced they’re quite sturdy enough. Anselm is a question mark in my view to even make the shortlist for inclusion. Lucky for its director, he has another movie in the mix with better odds. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Documentarian Asmae El Moudir delves into her family history in The Mother of All Lies, a Moroccan effort that has played Cannes and Toronto to all positive reaction. With a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating, I’m not sure the 7 reviews up at press time indicate that it will be a heavy awards player. There’s time for that to be rectified, but I’ll note the Critics Choice Association totally ignored it in their nominations this past week.
It is Morocco’s entry for Best International Feature Film and the odds are likely long for inclusion. The submitting nation has yet to receive a nomination despite 18 tries since 1977. If Lies gets recognized by the Academy, a nod in Documentary Feature is more realistic. I suspect 20 Days in Mariupol, which is Ukraine’s pick in IFF and Doc, stands a much better shot at the latter race than this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The three-hour heist dramedy The Delinquents from Argentina premiered at Cannes and has been traveling the fest circuit (Toronto, New York) since. From writer/director Rodrigo Moreno, it stars Daniel Elias and Esteban Bigliardi and is out in limited release this week.
Argentina has seen four of their efforts make the International Feature Film five in the 21st century: 2001’s Son of the Bride, 2009’s The Secret in Their Eyes (which won), 2014’s Wild Tales, and last year’s Argentina, 1985 (which may well have been runner-up to All Quiet on the Western Front).
With an 87% Rotten Tomatoes rating, don’t be surprised if this makes the shortlist in IFF. I’m more skeptical this becomes the fifth Argentinian entry to make the final cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After a Cannes Film Festival premiere in May that instantly turned it into a major awards contender, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon shines down on theaters October 20th. It marks the legendary filmmaker’s sixth collaboration with Leonardo DiCaprio and tenth with Robert De Niro. Lily Gladstone is third lead and she’s generating Oscar buzz along with her aforementioned costars. The supporting cast includes Jesse Plemons, Tantoo Cardinal, John Lithgow, and Brendan Fraser.
Based on David Grann’s 2017 novel, the reported $200 million production was picked up by Apple TV. They chose to go the theatrical route with the three and a half hour epic (Scorsese’s predecessor The Irishman went straight to Netflix).
This summer, adults turned out in full force for Oppenheimer (as in close to a billion worldwide). A lot of moviegoers who made the trek to see Christopher Nolan’s potential Best Picture winner do the same with this potential BP recipient. My forecast puts in the upper region of its expected range. That would be close to $30-35 million and don’t be shocked if it gets past that.
Killers of the Flower Moon opening weekend prediction: $32.7 million
The period piece Western The Settlers marks the debut directorial effort from Felipe Gálvez Haberle and it is the Chilean pick for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars. It premiered at the Cannes Film Festival and has continued to play the circuit in Toronto.
All reviews on Rotten Tomatoes are positive at 100%. I’m not quite sure they’re glowing enough that it makes the final quintet in IFF (though it’s not totally out of the question). Chile has had one winner in the 21st century with A Fantastic Woman and one other nominee in 2012 with No. This would mark the third, but I’m not confident the voters will say yes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
For the second time this week, there’s been an Oscar bombshell that will undoubtedly change the projections of prognosticators like yours truly. On Tuesday, it was the announcement that Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) will compete in Actress instead of Supporting Actress (where she was widely expected to compete in and probably win).
Now there’s a french twist in the International Feature Film race. As you may know, countries can only submit one picture for consideration in that competition. France was widely expected to put forth Justine Triet’s acclaimed Anatomy of a Fall, the courtroom drama that received the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. Fall, along with the U.K.’s The Zone of Interest from Jonathan Glazer, were seen as the two favorites to win the category. It was also seen as a major threat for nominations in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Sandra Hüller), and Original Screenplay.
Well, the French have a taste for the unexpected as it was announced today that they’re submitting Tran Anh Hung’s The Taste of Things instead. The historical romance starring Juliette Binoche also premiered at Cannes. While it nabbed a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating, it was seen as lagging behind Fall in terms of submission possibilities. Now it has positioned itself as Zone‘s main competitor for the IFF statue. And one could argue it increases the chances for Binoche to get an Actress nom (even though that derby is looking awfully crowded).
So where does that leave Fall? It could still get into Best Picture, but the odds could be longer. Same for all the other races mentioned above. This isn’t the first time France has surprised us in recent times. In 2019, they chose Les Miserables over Portrait of a Lady on Fire. While Miserables made the eventual quintet, it was seen as a weaker pick. To be fair – nothing was going to beat Parasite that year.
Then there’s 2007. France went with Persepolis as the selection and it didn’t get nominated. If they’d gone with The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, they might’ve had a winner on their hands. After all, it managed four overall mentions in Director (Julian Schnabel), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Film Editing. Anatomy will hope to follow Bell‘s model and maybe even dive into BP. It might face a steep curve based on its home country’s strategy. You can check how it alters my predictions (and it will) when I update them this weekend!
My deeper dives into big races at the Oscars arrives at Supporting Actress. If you didn’t catch my take on where Supporting Actor, you can access it here:
The Telluride and Venice and ongoing Toronto Film Festivals have helped shed some light on various hopefuls. Penelope Cruz helped herself with the Ferrari bow in Venice. Jodie Comer could be a factor for The Bikeriders (though she could also be campaigned for in lead).
One thing remains the same and has since Cannes. Lily Gladstone’s performance in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon looks like a serious frontrunner. Obviously this could change as more pictures screen. The Color Purple, for example, has plenty of possibilities (Danielle Brooks, Taraji P. Henson, Halle Bailey).
We have gotten some news during festival season in that Sandra Hüller will be showcased here for The Zone of Interest. However, she’s more likely to make the Actress cut for Anatomy of a Fall.
At this stage of the predicting game, I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10. Here’s my snapshot of where I believe we are now:
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+2)
Beginning today, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards slated for March 2024. Ardent readers of this here blog know that I typically update my predictions every 10-14 days.
Yet there’s been some major developments in the past week and there will be more in the week or so to come. The Telluride Film Festival just happened. Venice is ongoing and Toronto starts tonight. In other words, a whole bunch of Oscar hopefuls have just screened or are about to screen.
So for these closer looks at the four acting derbies, Best Director, and Best Picture – I’m obviously keeping all that in mind with the heavy buzz emanating from Colorado, Italy, and Ontario.
We begin with Supporting Actor. In this competition, 3 of the biggest contenders saw their movies released (or screen) prior to the September trio of festivals. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) and Ryan Gosling (Barbie) are, of course, part of the Barbenheimer phenomenon. Both appear highly likely to be nominated. I could see a narrative develop where Downey Jr. is honored for his body of work (in addition to his strong work in the film itself) and ends up taking the trophy. This would mark his third nom after 1992’s Chaplin and 2008’s Tropic Thunder. He’s currently my #1.
A similar victory could happen with Robert De Niro for Killers of the Flower Moon (which first screened at Cannes in May). The acting legend is a two-time Oscar winner, but it’s been 43 years since he took the lead prize for Raging Bull. You have go back to 49 years for his first statue in Supporting for The Godfather Part II. A Downey Jr. or De Niro statue could be contingent on which of their movies wins BP (if one of them does). The momentum from the top prize could dwindle down to either one of them.
Before its rapturous unveiling at Venice, there was uncertainty as to whether Mark Ruffalo or Willem Dafoe would be Fox Searchlight’s strongest contender for Poor Things. The answer might be both. Ruffalo could have the slight edge, but both could make the dance. That wouldn’t be all that surprising. Three of the past four Supporting Actor quintets have seen double nominees from the same feature – The Irishman in 2019 for Al Pacino and Joe Pesci, The Power of the Dog in 2021 for Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee, and last year for The Banshees of Inisherin with Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. It’s worth mentioning that none of the six nominees took the prize.
Speaking of double nominees, it isn’t out of the question that the aforementioned Plemons could materialize for Flower Moon. Same goes for Matt Damon in Oppenheimer. I suspect they ultimately don’t make it.
Past Lives is an acclaimed drama that seems destined for a BP spot. John Magaro is sure to be placed here and he could absolutely get into the final five. There is a question as to whether his costar Teo Yoo is campaigned for in lead or here. I’ve got him in the former as of now.
If Air overperforms, I wouldn’t totally discount Ben Affleck (he’s never had an acting mention). Glenn Howerton in BlackBerry has drawn plenty of raves. He’ll win some critics prizes and could be a trendy pick for inclusion. Charles Melton was singled out for his work alongside Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore at Cannes.
Dominic Sessa could see himself in for The Holdovers (especially if Alexander Payne dramedy’s cast mates Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph make their categories).
The Maestro acting campaigns should go to Carey Mulligan and Bradley Cooper in lead and not Matt Bomer. Saltburn reactions suggest any attention will go to star Barry Keoghan and not Richard E. Grant.
And there are unseen hopefuls in the wings. Colman Domingo in The Color Purple immediately comes to mind. His nom might not happen because he’s almost surely going to make the lead Actor’s five with Rustin.
So where’s that leave us? I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10 and here’s my snapshot of the race right now!
Predicted Nominees
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
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