For the second time this week, there’s been an Oscar bombshell that will undoubtedly change the projections of prognosticators like yours truly. On Tuesday, it was the announcement that Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) will compete in Actress instead of Supporting Actress (where she was widely expected to compete in and probably win).
Now there’s a french twist in the International Feature Film race. As you may know, countries can only submit one picture for consideration in that competition. France was widely expected to put forth Justine Triet’s acclaimed Anatomy of a Fall, the courtroom drama that received the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. Fall, along with the U.K.’s The Zone of Interest from Jonathan Glazer, were seen as the two favorites to win the category. It was also seen as a major threat for nominations in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Sandra Hüller), and Original Screenplay.
Well, the French have a taste for the unexpected as it was announced today that they’re submitting Tran Anh Hung’s The Taste of Things instead. The historical romance starring Juliette Binoche also premiered at Cannes. While it nabbed a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating, it was seen as lagging behind Fall in terms of submission possibilities. Now it has positioned itself as Zone‘s main competitor for the IFF statue. And one could argue it increases the chances for Binoche to get an Actress nom (even though that derby is looking awfully crowded).
So where does that leave Fall? It could still get into Best Picture, but the odds could be longer. Same for all the other races mentioned above. This isn’t the first time France has surprised us in recent times. In 2019, they chose Les Miserables over Portrait of a Lady on Fire. While Miserables made the eventual quintet, it was seen as a weaker pick. To be fair – nothing was going to beat Parasite that year.
Then there’s 2007. France went with Persepolis as the selection and it didn’t get nominated. If they’d gone with The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, they might’ve had a winner on their hands. After all, it managed four overall mentions in Director (Julian Schnabel), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Film Editing. Anatomy will hope to follow Bell‘s model and maybe even dive into BP. It might face a steep curve based on its home country’s strategy. You can check how it alters my predictions (and it will) when I update them this weekend!
My deeper dives into big races at the Oscars arrives at Supporting Actress. If you didn’t catch my take on where Supporting Actor, you can access it here:
The Telluride and Venice and ongoing Toronto Film Festivals have helped shed some light on various hopefuls. Penelope Cruz helped herself with the Ferrari bow in Venice. Jodie Comer could be a factor for The Bikeriders (though she could also be campaigned for in lead).
One thing remains the same and has since Cannes. Lily Gladstone’s performance in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon looks like a serious frontrunner. Obviously this could change as more pictures screen. The Color Purple, for example, has plenty of possibilities (Danielle Brooks, Taraji P. Henson, Halle Bailey).
We have gotten some news during festival season in that Sandra Hüller will be showcased here for The Zone of Interest. However, she’s more likely to make the Actress cut for Anatomy of a Fall.
At this stage of the predicting game, I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10. Here’s my snapshot of where I believe we are now:
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+2)
Beginning today, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards slated for March 2024. Ardent readers of this here blog know that I typically update my predictions every 10-14 days.
Yet there’s been some major developments in the past week and there will be more in the week or so to come. The Telluride Film Festival just happened. Venice is ongoing and Toronto starts tonight. In other words, a whole bunch of Oscar hopefuls have just screened or are about to screen.
So for these closer looks at the four acting derbies, Best Director, and Best Picture – I’m obviously keeping all that in mind with the heavy buzz emanating from Colorado, Italy, and Ontario.
We begin with Supporting Actor. In this competition, 3 of the biggest contenders saw their movies released (or screen) prior to the September trio of festivals. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) and Ryan Gosling (Barbie) are, of course, part of the Barbenheimer phenomenon. Both appear highly likely to be nominated. I could see a narrative develop where Downey Jr. is honored for his body of work (in addition to his strong work in the film itself) and ends up taking the trophy. This would mark his third nom after 1992’s Chaplin and 2008’s Tropic Thunder. He’s currently my #1.
A similar victory could happen with Robert De Niro for Killers of the Flower Moon (which first screened at Cannes in May). The acting legend is a two-time Oscar winner, but it’s been 43 years since he took the lead prize for Raging Bull. You have go back to 49 years for his first statue in Supporting for The Godfather Part II. A Downey Jr. or De Niro statue could be contingent on which of their movies wins BP (if one of them does). The momentum from the top prize could dwindle down to either one of them.
Before its rapturous unveiling at Venice, there was uncertainty as to whether Mark Ruffalo or Willem Dafoe would be Fox Searchlight’s strongest contender for Poor Things. The answer might be both. Ruffalo could have the slight edge, but both could make the dance. That wouldn’t be all that surprising. Three of the past four Supporting Actor quintets have seen double nominees from the same feature – The Irishman in 2019 for Al Pacino and Joe Pesci, The Power of the Dog in 2021 for Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee, and last year for The Banshees of Inisherin with Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. It’s worth mentioning that none of the six nominees took the prize.
Speaking of double nominees, it isn’t out of the question that the aforementioned Plemons could materialize for Flower Moon. Same goes for Matt Damon in Oppenheimer. I suspect they ultimately don’t make it.
Past Lives is an acclaimed drama that seems destined for a BP spot. John Magaro is sure to be placed here and he could absolutely get into the final five. There is a question as to whether his costar Teo Yoo is campaigned for in lead or here. I’ve got him in the former as of now.
If Air overperforms, I wouldn’t totally discount Ben Affleck (he’s never had an acting mention). Glenn Howerton in BlackBerry has drawn plenty of raves. He’ll win some critics prizes and could be a trendy pick for inclusion. Charles Melton was singled out for his work alongside Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore at Cannes.
Dominic Sessa could see himself in for The Holdovers (especially if Alexander Payne dramedy’s cast mates Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph make their categories).
The Maestro acting campaigns should go to Carey Mulligan and Bradley Cooper in lead and not Matt Bomer. Saltburn reactions suggest any attention will go to star Barry Keoghan and not Richard E. Grant.
And there are unseen hopefuls in the wings. Colman Domingo in The Color Purple immediately comes to mind. His nom might not happen because he’s almost surely going to make the lead Actor’s five with Rustin.
So where’s that leave us? I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10 and here’s my snapshot of the race right now!
Predicted Nominees
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
After a subpar start, Harrison Ford’s fifth go-round as the iconic fedora clad archaeologist hopes to repeat at #1. The fifth edition of a horror franchise could disrupt that as Insidious: The Red Door swings in. We also have the critically acclaimed raunchy comedy Joy Ride and action pic Sound of Freedom from upstart Angel Studios. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
After a lackluster haul (more on that below), Dr. Jones and company might see a sophomore drop in the low 50s. While the B+ Cinemascore grade exceeds the B that crowds gave predecessor Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull, it still indicates middling enthusiasm moving forward. My high 20s take does mean a repeat performance atop the charts.
That’s because I have Insidious: The Red Door in the mid 20s. While that’s under the $29 million that The Last Key opened with in 2018, it is still a fine result for the 13-year-old franchise.
The weekend’s wild card is Sound of Freedom. Jim Caviezel’s turn as a vigilante taking on human traffickers is being championed by faith-based and conservative groups. This resulted in a terrific $14 million bounty when it started on July 4th. How it legs out is anyone’s guess and I’m going with a low double digits Friday-Sunday number. That would put it solidly in third.
As for Joy Ride, critics are being kind and the studio is hoping for a Crazy Rich Asians style sleeper hit. The hard R rating could prevent that and my sub $10 million projection puts it in fourth just ahead of animated holdovers Elemental and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
And with that, here’s how I foresee the top 6 shaking out:
1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Predicted Gross: $28 million
2. Insidious: The Red Door
Predicted Gross: $25.2 million
3. Sound of Freedom
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
4. Joy Ride
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Elemental
Predicted Gross: $8 million
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
Box Office Results (June 30-July 2)
Considering Crystal Skull in 2008 made off with $100 million for its Friday to Sunday portion of a holiday weekend, the $60.3 million for Dial of Destiny is a major letdown for Disney. I wasn’t much more generous at $65.3 million. When it premiered in Cannes over a month ago, its mediocre reaction set the table for a disappointing gross. Perhaps more importantly is that it didn’t play for younger audiences whose reverence for the series isn’t matched by the 40 and up crowd.
Disney/Pixar’s Elemental, after a troubling start, continued to level off nicely in weekend #3. It was second with $12.1 million, in line with my $12.7 million prediction for a three-week $89 million tally.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was third with $12 million compared to my $13.5 million estimate. The Sony juggernaut has amassed $340 million.
Jennifer Lawrence’s No Hard Feelings was fourth with $7.8 million (I went higher at $89 million). The ten-day take is $29 million which is fairly decent for a genre that’s struggled in recent times.
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts rounded out the top five with $7.3 million. I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The total is $136 million.
Finally, DreamWorks Animation’s Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken was a major flop in sixth with only $5.5 million. I was kinder at $7.8 million. With serious kiddie competition, parents opted for leftovers like Elemental and Spidey.
Blogger’s Update (06/29): I have my estimate for Ruby Gillman from to $10.8M to $7.8M, which puts it in fifth instead of fourth.
Harrison Ford hopes to retire his iconic character with boffo box office returns as Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny whips into theaters. We also have DreamWorks Animation’s Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken seeking success amid serious competition. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be perused here:
Disney might not have done itself any favors when it screened Destiny last month at the Cannes Film Festival. The critical reaction was rather weak as it sits with 62% on Rotten Tomatoes. The fifth entry in the franchise’s much maligned 2008 predecessor Kingdom of the Crystal Skull managed 77%. I suspect that expectations should be tempered and I have it hitting mid 60s for what would be considered a significantly disappointing beginning.
Slots 2-4 should be quite animated with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Elemental losing around 30-35%. That could put both of them ahead of Ruby. The fact that it’s not based on known IP won’t help and neither will the level of competition. I have it barely topping $10 million for a fourth place start.
No Hard Feelings should round out the top five with a 40% range decline in its sophomore frame.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Predicted Gross: $65.3 million
2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
3. Elemental
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
4. No Hard Feelings
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
5. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
Box Office Results (June 23-25)
Thanks to the disastrous performance of The Flash (we’ll get there shortly), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swung back into 1st place in week #4. The acclaimed animated sequel took in $19 million. I was right on target with $18.9 million and it’s up to a terrific $316 million with $400 million in its sights.
Pixar’s Elemental, after a poor premiere, was on less shaky ground in its follow-up outing. The A Cinemascore grade probably helped as it dropped a commendable 38% at $18.4 million (I went lower with $16.8 million). That’s the smallest Pixar sophomore frame downslide since Up 14 years ago. The total is $65 million in ten days.
The Flash… wow. After a shockingly low $55 million opening, the DCEU debacle plunged 72% and landed in third with only $15.1 million. I was more generous at $17.5 million. The ten-day take is $87 million and it should be out of the top five in only its third go-round. Embarrassing.
Jennifer Lawrence’s raunchy comedy No Hard Feelings debuted in fourth with $15 million, exceeding my call of $11.7 million. For its genre, that’s a pretty solid haul as comedies have struggled in recent years. It should manage to hold up decently in subsequent weekends.
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts rounded out the top five with $11.7 million, rising above my $9.3 million projection. The three-week gross is $123 million.
Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City expanded nationwide and nabbed the highest per theater average on the chart. The star-studded tale made an impressive $9 million and went above my $7.6 million guesstimate. It’s at $10.2 million when factoring its limited release dollars from the previous weekend.
Finally, The Little Mermaid was seventh with $8.5 million (I said $7 million) to bring its earnings to $270 million in five weeks.
Ahh, the 80s. It’s a decade where filmmakers (many of whom came of age at the time) are constantly prodding our nostalgic sensibilities. That’s when the Spielberg/Lucas collaborative trilogy of Raiders of the Lost Ark, Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, and Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade gave Harrison Ford another iconic role and moviegoers another classic franchise. In 2008, Ford donned the fedora again to more mixed results with Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. The 80s now describes the lead’s own age (he became an octogenarian last summer). Indy is back as James Mangold takes over directorial duties with Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, the time travel adventure that marks the fifth and last entry in the series. The Logan and Ford v Ferrari maker also has Karen Allen and John Rhys-Davies reprising their roles. Other supporting players include Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Mads Mikkelsen, Antonio Banderas, Toby Jones, Boyd Holbrook, and Ethann Isidore.
With a whopping budget reportedly approaching $300 million, Disney is banking on crowds of all ages making the multiplex trek. That’s not a sure thing as we all just witnessed The Flash go belly up. Destiny attempted to generate solid buzz when it premiered last month at the Cannes Film Festival. It might’ve had the opposite effect. Reviews were middling and it currently stands at just 59% on Rotten Tomatoes (the oft maligned Skull sits at 77%). Another factor is that younger viewers may not have the sentimentality for Indy that older ones hold.
Fifteen summers ago, Skull premiered on Thursday ahead of a long Memorial Day holiday weekend. It amassed over $150 million for the five-day haul. A three-day take of $100 million would be welcome news for the Mouse Factory. I’m skeptical if that’s achievable. In fact, I’m questioning whether it reaches the figure that shares Ford’s age. Anything under $80 million would certainly be considered a disappointment and that’s where I have this landing. In fact, I’m only going mid-6os for what would be considered a massive letdown.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny opening weekend prediction: $65.3 million
For my Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken prediction, click here:
After premiering to mixed reactions at the Cannes Film Festival last month, Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City expands nationwide on June 23rd. The auteur’s distinctive mix of dry humor and drama looks to be in high supply and same goes for his impressive sprawling cast. This time around it includes plenty of Anderson regulars and some newbies. The list boasts Jason Schwartzman, Scarlett Johansson, Tom Hanks, Jeffrey Wright, Tilda Swinton, Bryan Cranston, Edward Norton, Adrien Brody, Liev Schreiber, Hope Davis, Steve Park, Rupert Friend, Maya Hawke, Steve Carell, Matt Dillon, Hong Chau, Willem Dafoe, Margot Robbie, Tony Revolori, and Jeff Goldblum.
With a 74% Rotten Tomatoes rating, this is far from the peak of critical acclaim for the filmmaker. I doubt this approaches the $59 million domestic gross that 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel made in 2014 (his best earner). Yet this should eclipse predecessor The French Dispatch from October 2021. It took in just $16 million (this was also during theatrical COVID challenges).
City rolls out June 16th in six venues. I imagine it’ll have one of the biggest per theater averages of 2023. That doesn’t necessarily translate to impressive numbers when it expands between the coasts a week later. I’m skeptical that it manages $10 million.
Asteroid City opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million
My mid-June look at the major races for the 96th Academy Awards adds the screenplay competitions to the mix. In them, my top picks for Best Picture (Killers of the Flower Moon and Past Lives) lead their respective writing categories.
Truth be told, we’re in a bit of a lull for significant awards buzz. The Cannes Film Festival is over and the key fall fests (Toronto, Venice, Telluride) are nearly three months out.
In July, we will have two potential heavyweights unveiled in Oppenheimer and Barbie. At this juncture, a lot of my speculation is simply deciding whether certain features are even released in 2023. We might not see Ana DuVernay’s Caste, Steve McQueen’s Blitz, or Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson until 2024. That’s why I currently have them out of the mix.
One item that has materialized in the past couple of weeks is the release of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The acclaimed animated sequel has established itself as at least a candidate for BP consideration. There’s no doubt it’s the current frontrunner for Animated Feature.
You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Air (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Maestro (PR: 12) (+1)
12. May December (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Challengers (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Barbie (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Napoleon (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Asteroid City (PR: 24) (+7)
18. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (+4)
19. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
20. The Killer (PR: 23) (+3)
21. Flint Strong (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Rustin (PR: 18) (-4)
23. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 20) (-3)
24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (-3)
25. Ferrari (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)
10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)
11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+1)
12.Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR:11) (-1)
13. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Todd Haynes, May December (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Steve McQueen, Blitz
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)
15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: Not Ranked)
Droped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
Jane Levy, A Little Prayer
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 14) (+2)
13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Supporing Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 15) (+1)
We are caught up and have reached 2022 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
For the ceremony that occurred less than three months ago, we know Everything Everywhere All at Once would land a spot. To say it was the big winner on Oscar night is an understatement. The multi-genre hit made off with 7 trophies – Picture, Director (Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert), Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Original Screenplay (also the Daniels), and Film Editing. It was nominated for four more – Supporting Actress (Stephanie Hsu), Costume Design, Original Score, and Original Song.
Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five was no easy feat, but here’s my best speculation!
Well… almost. Before we get to that, this particular series will now become a yearly occurrence where I give you my final five in the coming years. However, stay tuned for the reverse of these write-ups. Starting soon and beginning with 2008 (the last year there were five nominees), I’ll give you speculation on which pictures I believe would be nominated if there were ten contending films.
Back to the Oscars that just happened…
All Quiet on the Western Front
Edward Berger’s World War I epic was one of the easiest picks on Oscar night to win the International Feature Film trophy. It also took home Cinematography, Original Score, and Production Design and received noms for Adapted Screenplay, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. The quartet of victories was second best to Everything.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, despite surprising misses for its Director and in Film Editing. I still think the 9 nine total nods (also second best to Everything) puts it in the quintet.
Avatar: The Way of Water
As anticipated, James Cameron’s long-awaited sequel to the 2009 box office behemoth was a victor in Visual Effects. It also got nods in Production Design and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Water logged less than half of its predecessor’s nine mentions and Cameron himself didn’t make the directorial derby.
The Banshees of Inisherin
Martin McDonagh’s black comedy clocked nine nominations with the others being for the director and screenwriter (both McDonagh), Actor (Colin Farrell), two Supporting Actor bids (Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan), Supporting Actress (Kerry Condon), Film Editing, and Original Score. It ended up going 0 for 8.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The winning percentage of zero was due to the Everything love, but it still would’ve found a slot among the five.
Elvis
Baz Luhrmann’s lavish musical biopic of The King shimmied to 8 nods including Actor (Austin Butler), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, and Sound. Like Banshees, it left the building with no statues.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Had Elvis garnered wins in some of the below-the-line races (which it was expected to) or for Butler, I may have a different answer in this case. Yet it wasn’t to be.
The Fabelmans
Steven Spielberg’s most personal work to date saw 7 nominations for the director and screenwriter (both Spielberg with Tony Kushner co-scribing), Actress (Michelle Williams), Supporting Actor (Judd Hirsch), Original Score, and Production Design. In what’s starting to sound like a broken record, it failed to capitalize on any of its nominations.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes though I struggled with this one. Missing editing (a good harbinger of a BP nod) was a surprise and same goes for the cinematography. Ultimately the power of Spielberg might’ve reserved this for the fourth or fifth spot.
Tár
Todd Field’s profile of a complicated EGOT winner generated six mentions for its director and screenwriter (both Field), Actress (Cate Blanchett), Cinematography, and Film Editing. Once again – any potential victory was thwarted by Everything as it went 0/6.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. I must say that I really went back and forth on this (more so than with The Fabelmans). Yet it managed to score inclusions in the precursors that matter most and it gets the edge for it.
Top Gun: Maverick
The moneymaking monolith of 2022 had a total of six nominations with Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects on the menu. It emerged victorious in Sound (Everything and Western Front didn’t take them all).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. I went back and forth between this and Tár for #5. The latter got in where it matters. Maverick, despite being the people’s champ, missed key races like Director (Joseph Kosinski), Actor (Tom Cruise), and Cinematography.
Triangle of Sadness
The Palme d’or recipient at Cannes was awarded an unexpected directing nod for Ruben Östlund and an expected screenwriting mention for him. The count for was 0 for 3.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Östlund’s surprise nomination for his behind the camera was a pleasant surprise, but a final five slot would be an even bigger shocker.
Women Talking
Director Sarah Polley won for her Adapted Screenplay and that marks Women‘s only other nom. That means the sprawling cast that included Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, and Jessie Buckley were all left out.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Despite the screenplay award, the aforementioned facts make this the easiest of the bunch to leave out (especially considering its two nods were the smallest of the group).
And that means my 2022 final five is:
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Stay tuned for the inverse of these posts beginning with 2008!
If you missed my write-ups in the series covering 2009-21, you can access them right here:
Filmmaker Kaouther Ben Hania is no stranger to awards attention. In 2020, her Tunisian feature The Man Who Sold His Skin was a surprise nominee for International Feature Film (ultimately losing to Another Round).
Her next round for Oscar chatter lies with Four Daughters. The Arabic-language documentary (known as Les Filles d’Olfa at its French debut) premiered at the Cannes Film Festival. It centers on a Tunisian mother and the disappearance of her two eldest daughters. In this mix of real life and fiction, the director hires professional actresses to portray the missing women.
Early reviews are predominantly fresh with 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some of the write-ups, however, indicate it doesn’t fully deliver on the unique premise. Ben Hania scored a surprise nod three years back and perhaps this could accomplish the same in Documentary Feature. It remains somewhat of a long shot currently. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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