Japanese drama Kokuho showed up in two shortlists for the 98th Academy Awards released today (expect a few posts covering international and documentary contenders in particular). Being that it’s Japan’s submission for International Feature Film, materializing on that list wasn’t a major surprise. Making the ten possibilities in Makeup and Hairstyling was. Lee Sang-il directs with a cast including Ryo Yoshizawa, Ryusei Yokohama, Mitsuki Takahata, Shinobu Terajima, Min Tanaka, and Ken Watanabe. It was first screened at Cannes in the summer.
The film has bragging rights. In November, it became the highest grossing live-action film in its native country. It also sports a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Japan has seen a handful of their submissions make the Academy’s cut in the 21st century. They are The Twilight Samurai from 2003, Departures in 2008 (which won), Shoplifters in 2018, another victor with Drive My Car from 2021, and Perfect Days from 2023.
That’s a resume that would look darn good in a different year. International Feature Film, however, is packed with other surefire hopefuls including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sirât (which had a banner day on the shortlists), and No Other Choice (all Neon titles). There may not be room for Kokuho to shine. It probably stands a better shot at Makeup and Hairstyling as they’ve proven to be a branch capable of unexpected nominations. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Nigerian family drama My Father’s Shadow has been playing the festival circuit for months beginning at Cannes and continuing to Toronto. It marks the directorial debut of Akinola Davies Jr. and stars Sope Dirisu with Godwin Chiemerie Egbo and Chibuike Marvellous Egbo as his sons. The United Kingdom has submitted it as the hopeful for Best International Feature Film.
The Brits may have chosen wisely. Shadow is receiving early kudos from other awards bodies. It was given a special award for its first-time filmmaker at Cannes. At the British Independent Film Awards, it was up in 12 categories and won Best Director. And tonight at the Gothams, it went 2 for 2 with Breakthrough Director and a surprise victory for Dirisu for Outstanding Lead Performance.
After a streak in which none of their 21st century submitted features made the cut in the international race, the UK took top honors two years ago for The Zone of Interest. Last year, Santosh made the shortlist but not the final quintet. With 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 85 Metacritic, Shadow could be gathering buzz at the right time.
Some key caveats as the aforementioned ceremonies aren’t exactly reliable Oscar precursors. There’s also the matter of IFF being quite crowded with more high-profile titles including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident (which also received some Gotham love), The Secret Agent, and No Other Choice. However, if Shadow makes this year’s shortlist, it could be a trendy pick. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The animated futuristic fantasy Arco is out in limited fashion domestically this weekend for an Oscar qualifying run before a nationwide expansion early next year. From filmmaker Ugo Bienvenu, the Neon title premiered at Cannes in May with a voice cast including Margot Ringard Oldra, Oscar Tresanini, Swann Arlaud, and Alma Jodorowsky. The English dub’s faces behind the mic include Romy Fay, Juliano Krue Valdi, Will Ferrell, America Ferrera, Mark Ruffalo, Andy Samberg, and Natalie Portman (who also produces).
Critics have been consistently complimentary with 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 75 Metacritic. Those numbers should be enough for this to make the Best Animated Feature quintet where I’ve had it predicted for some time. A win narrative is trickier as it is probably behind cultural phenomenon KPop Demon Hunters and the forthcoming Zootopia 2 (which has encouraging WOM and the Disney marketing muscle). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As October draws to a close, it’s time for a deep dive into the Best Picture race with two months left in the release calendar. I’ve done the same with the directing competition and the four acting derbies. If you missed those write-ups over the past few days, you can access them here:
I published my first preview of the Best Picture field on April 17th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the 10 BP hopefuls along with 15 other possibilities . At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
After the Hunt
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Hamnet
Jay Kelly
The Life of Chuck
Marty Supreme
No Other Choice
The Rivals of Amziah King
Sentimental Value
Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
Alpha
Ballad of a Small Player
Bugonia
Die, My Love
F1
Frankenstein
Highest 2 Lowest
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Materialists
Michael
One Battle After Another
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
The Testament of Ann Lee
Let’s dispense with the movies that are no longe viable. The Rivals of Amziah King and Michael will be 2026 releases. The following titles did not get solid enough reviews, box office, or a combo of both to truly be threats: After the Hunt (which I initially had ranked at #1 back in the spring), The Life of Chuck, (despite winning the 2024 Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival), Alpha, Ballad of a Small Player, Die, My Love (though Jennifer Lawrence could contend in Actress), F1 (which was a critically appreciated hit and could nab some tech nods), Highest 2 Lowest, Kiss of the Spider Woman (perhaps Jennifer Lopez can sneak in Supporting Actress), Materialists, and The Smashing Machine.
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and The Testament of Ann Lee aren’t dead in the water, but the former is a sizable box office disappointment with some less than stellar reviews and the latter is perhaps too divisive. Their leads Jeremy Allen White and Amanda Seyfried have healthier chances in the lead acting contests.
So let’s get into the 11 of the 25 aforementioned titles that do still have a decent chance and a few others worthy of mention.
The soft frontrunner appears to be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another with its multiple acting contenders and some of the highest critical praise of the year. Even though it disappointed a bit at the box office, the Cinemascore grade of A indicates it would be a satisfactory audience choice for voters to select. Plus PTA is generally seen as overdue for Academy affection.
Its biggest competition could be Hamnet from Chloé Zhao, who picked up a directorial prize and a BP win for 2020’s Nomadland. History could repeat five years later for her heralded historical drama.
I’m also confident that Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, the vampiric financial smash from the spring, will be remembered on BP ballots even though horror flicks often have a hard time breaking through. This should be a welcome exception.
Joachim Trier’s family drama Sentimental Value is a festival darling that has enough goodwill to make the BP cut.
Two upcoming releases have their review embargoes intact but have screened to encouraging word-of-mouth: Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme (where Timothée Chalamet appears to be a Best Actor favorite) and Wicked: For Good, part two to Wicked which garnered BP and other nominations last year. Both should find themselves among the ten.
That’s six pics (One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good) that I’m confident are in. Twelve others are jockeying for the four additional slots.
I’ve had Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein in and out of my lineup at various times. I’m becoming more convinced it could be Netflix’s best chance in BP.
An argument could easily be made that the streamer’s Jay Kelly from Noah Baumbach is their strongest horse with its Hollywood friendly storyline. Some reviews have been lukewarm, but I still am leaning toward it placing in the 10.
To close the Netflix loop, Train Dreams has its ardent admirers and I wouldn’t totally discount it. Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite seems to be fizzling a tad due to some ambivalent audience reaction, but a rebound is not out of the question.
Avatar: Fire and Ash looks to follow in the footsteps of its two predecessors. Having it in or near the selected 10 seems like a smart move but screenings will soon tell the tale.
Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident from Neon took the Palme d’Or at Cannes and I’m increasingly confident it’ll be an international contender in its own race and BP (like Neon’s Sentimental Value).
The Secret Agent (Neon) and No Other Choice (Neon) could accomplish the same dual noms though it’s rare for more than two international submissions to get into the big dance. And not every Neon distributed foreign title can make the list… can they?
Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos may be a touch too oddball for BP though I’d be careful to dismiss the latest from The Favourite and Poor Things maker.
Richard Linklater’s has had an impressive year with Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague though I’m guessing neither are real threats.
Finally, Song Sung Blue (out Christmas) is said to be a crowdpleaser and Kate Hudson is a possibility in Best Actress. A Musical/Comedy BP spot at the Globes seems more feasible than Academy love.
Keep an eye on the blog with updated rankings on BP and all other feature film races hitting shortly!
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It began with Supporting Actor and Actress and continues today with Best Actor. If you missed my write-up on the supporting players, you can find them here:
I published my first preview of the lead Actor field on April 8th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere
Other Possibilities:
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player
Jaafar Jackson, Michael
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Andrew Scott, Pressure
Let’s dispense with the easy subtractions, shall we? The Rivals of Amziah King with Matthew McConaughey seems more likely to release in 2026. Same goes for Jaafar Jackson in Michael and Andrew Scott in Pressure. Paul Mescal (Hamnet) will contend in Supporting Actor where I am predicting him to get a nomination.
The reviews and buzz simply doesn’t exist for Colin Farrell in Ballad of a Small Player or McConaughey in The Lost Bus. Same for Willem Dafoe in Late Fame though a surprise Globe or SAG or Critics Choice nod could make him a remote possibility. I would say the same logic applies to Lee Byung-hun for No Other Choice and Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine. For the latter, subpar box office doesn’t help his chances which were once seen as rock solid.
Beyond the names above, there’s a slew of once promising contenders who have fizzled out for one reason or another. It includes Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest), Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?), Brendan Fraser (Rental Family), and Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein). I don’t expect to see their names among the nominees.
So let’s discuss who I think is truly in the mix and it’s ten actors. Half will make the cut and half will not. There could be 11 via the soon to be screened Song Sung Blue with Hugh Jackman though Kate Hudson is rumored to be the awards play from that one.
From my first ranked predictions in April, I’ve had Timothée Chalamet in the #1 spot after he was probably the runner-up for Actor last year to Adrian Brody (The Brutalist) for his embodiment of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. The review embargo is still intact for December’s Marty Supreme, but early word-of-mouth indicates the top ranking is justified and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
Jeremy Allen White’s portrayal of The Boss in Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere is out tonight. His nomination seems more probable than not even though the pic itself is a question mark in BP.
George Clooney as Jay Kelly is more of an unknown as the movie has its ardent supporters and some detractors. If Kelly gets into BP, it significantly increases his odds.
Daniel Day-Lewis, a three-time winner, could get in just because he’s Daniel Day-Lewis. However, Anemone drew mixed reactions and was a non-entity at the box office.
Other than Chalamet, the performer I’m most confident makes the quintet is Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another. He’s a threat to take gold if the aforementioned competition fizzles out in the potential BP frontrunner.
Like Clooney, Jesse Plemons would benefit from Bugonia sneaking into BP. A better than currently expected performance from the film could grant him admission.
Blue Moon is a long shot for BP, but voters could still make room for veteran Ethan Hawke. He’d be vying for his third overall nom after supporting recognition for Training Day and Boyhood.
Train Dreams is also probably not on track for BP though Joel Edgerton has a so-so chance of getting in if other awards branches or critics groups bring him up.
Sinners, on the other hand, is a surefire hopeful in the big dance and Michael B. Jordan could get swept in for his dual role in the smash hit.
Wagner Moura was Best Actor at Cannes for The Secret Agent and I’m starting to believe his odds are increasing.
So there you have it. I think Chalamet and DiCaprio have punched their tickets with White close to doing the same unless Springsteen is a notable flop. The other seven are vying for slots four and five. My in-depth look at these high profile categories will continue with Best Actress!
Based on a 2000 novel from Amélie Nothomb, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain was first seen at the Cannes Film Festival. The animated coming-of-age tale has already been released in its native France and is likely to see stateside distribution by year’s end. Maïlys Vallade and Liane-Cho Han co-direct with a voice cast including Loïse Charpentier, Victoria Grosbois and Yumi Fujimori.
In a Best Animated Feature race that isn’t exactly overflowing with possibilities, I’ve had Amélie making the cut in recent weeks via the 4th or 5th slot. The reviews are there with 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. I don’t think it’s a threat to win and that’s partly due to the cultural juggernaut that is KPop Demon Hunters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Already out in France after its debut at Cannes in May, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk is a feature that could capture the attention of Academy voters. Filmmaker Sepideh Farsi chronicles her correspondence with Palestinian photojournalist Fatima Hassouna before she was killed in an airstrike earlier this year.
The timely documentary received an emotional reception at Cannes and early reviews have resulted in a 94% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. There will be plenty of politically charged efforts for the doc branch to choose from in 2025, but Walk may be tough to ignore. I have it currently ranked fifth on my board of possibilities. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Raoul Peck, whose acclaimed 2016 feature I Am Not Your Negro was nominated for Best Documentary Feature, could find himself in contention nine years later with Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5. Focused on the life of George Orwell while paralleling current events, Damian Lewis narrates as the 1984 writer.
The Neon distributed effort is out today with 85% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 74 Metacritic. The reaction is not as rapturous as Peck’s predecessor. However, with the right push (something Neon is capable of), don’t be surprised if this makes the shortlist of docs later this year. It it does, it has a shot to make the quintet though winning is highly improbable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Nouvelle Vague is Richard Linklater’s showbiz centered dramedy that premiered at Cannes that could contend for awards attention this season. Blue Moon is his other showbiz centered dramedy that was screened prior to Vague at the Berlin fest and is getting more exposure this weekend at Telluride. It stars the director’s frequent collaborator Ethan Hawke as Lorenz Hart, songwriter for Oklahoma! on the night of its Broadway premiere. Margaret Qualley, Andrew Scott (as composer Richard Rodgers), and Bobby Cannavale costar.
With Sony handling distribution (it’s out in October), you can expect an Oscar push and that particularly applies to Hawke. A two-time supporting nominee for 2001’s Training Day and 2014’s Boyhood, this is certainly his strongest shot at lead consideration since 2018’s First Reformed. Scott is worthy of mention as he was awarded the Silver Bear award for his supporting turn in Germany earlier this year.
Despite commendable 96% and 76 ratings on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic, respectively, I don’t see this being a factor in the Best Picture derby. Yet I’m beginning to suspect Hawke could be a dark horse possibility if other lead actor performances not yet screened don’t pan out. I also wouldn’t totally discount Scott or Qualley, but I think Hawke stands the best shot. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
No Other Choice is the newest feature from acclaimed South Korean filmmaker Park Chan-wook and it has premiered in Venice. With domestic distribution by Neon, the satirical thriller is expected to hit domestic screens later this year. It is based on a 1997 novel by Donald Westlake. The cast is led by Lee Byung-hun with supporting turns from Son Ye-jin, Park Hee-soon, Lee Sung-min, Yeom Hye-ran, and Cha Seung-won.
Chan-wook has made critical darlings including Oldboy, The Handmaiden, and Decision to Leave. Yet none of his efforts have been recognized by the Academy in the International Feature Film derby. 2022’s Leave was widely expected to do so and its snub was one of the biggest shockers on that nomination morning.
Choice certainly has the reviews to change that with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 86 on Metacritic. In a best case scenario, it could branch out from IFF and into Best Picture with Chan-wook in the directing quintet, Byung-hun in Actor, and an Adapted Screenplay mention. I think the most likely scenario is inclusion in IFF and the screenplay race. There’s also the possibility that the Academy ignores it like they did with Leave. However, one could argue that pic’s snub could help his latest. One thing to keep an eye is Neon’s bandwidth in their campaigns. In the international competition, they will also be juggling Sentimental Value (the frontrunner at this juncture), Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Acciddent, and the heralded The Secret Agent and Sirât (both Cannes favorites). I wouldn’t put it past Neon to successfully shine lights on all of them though it could be a stretch. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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