Tag: Callum Turner

August 7-9 Box Office Predictions

A history making weekend just occurred at the box office with Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey breaking records. The blockbuster duo should easily rule the charts once again but we do have newcomers jockeying for third place. The Broken Lizard comedy gang returns in Super Troopers 3 while Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner headline the rom com One Night Only. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

One Night Only Box Office Prediction
Super Troopers 3 Box Office Prediction

We’ll get to the newbies in a minute, but let’s talk Spidey. Brand New Day, the 38th overall MCU pic and 4th franchise effort with Tom Holland in the title role, swung the best opening weekend ever domestically (more on that below). Edging out seven-year record holder Avengers: Endgame by $3 million, Day could be in contention for the highest second frame of all time. In order to do so, it would need to top the $149 million that Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned in 2015 (Endgame did $147 million in its sophomore outing). I’m projecting it’ll get there with a gross just north of $150 million.

Christopher Nolan’s epic The Odyssey should continue its fantastic run with a second place finish in the $30-35 million range.

Third place is more of a question mark and I’m predicting a photo finish between One Night and Troopers. I don’t see either of them greatly exceeding expectations. My $7-8 million take on both gives Night minor bragging rights in third.

Toy Story 5 should place fifth and here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $153 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $31.6 million

3. One Night Only

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

4. Super Troopers 3

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (July 31-August 2)

Spider-Man: Brand New Day astonished prognosticators and pummeled my prediction by nearly $100 million (!) as the MCU sequel swung $360 million. That’s way beyond my $268 million take and ahead of Endgame‘s $357 million record. Audience anticipation was clearly sky high after 2021 predecessor No Way Home as this looks to dominate August at multiplexes.

The Odyssey landed another $51 million in its third weekend to bring its gargantuan total to $395 million. That added coin, coupled with Spider-Man, contributed to the best box office weekend in history (unadjusted for inflation). My projection was slightly lower at $48.5 million.

Toy Story 5 was third in its seventh go-round with $6.7 million, a tad more than my $6.1 million call. The Pixar sequel has hauled in $462 million thus far.

Minions & Monsters was fourth with $6 million compared to my $5.6 million forecast for a five-week tally of $168 million.

Disney’s Moana rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I said $5.7 million) for $115 million after four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

One Night Only Box Office Prediction

Will Gluck, a veteran of the rom com genre with Easy A and Anyone but You to his credit, directs One Night Only which hits multiplexes on August 7th. The high concept love story stars Monica Barbaro (best known for her Oscar nominated work in A Complete Unknown) and Callum Turner. The eclectic supporting cast includes Maya Hawke, Julia Fox, King Princess, Ben Marshall, Ziwe, Molly Ringwald, and LeVar Burton.

The Universal production seems to be flying under the radar though female audiences could turn out in unexpected numbers. Under no circumstances will this approach the earnings of sleeper hit Anyone but You ($88 million domestic). Night could manage a gross of $10 million plus and hope that word-of-mouth keeps it performing decently throughout August. In the worst case scenario, it could flop like Turner’s Eternity did last November. I’ll say mid to high single digits is where it starts.

One Night Only opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my Super Troopers 3 prediction, click here:

Super Troopers 3 Box Office Prediction

Eternity Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (11/25): It appears Eternity is opening on approximately 1500 screens which is lower than I assumed. Therefore my three-day estimate is declining from $4.3 million to $3 million and five-day from $6.1 million to $4.4 million.

The afterlife set rom com Eternity premieres over Thanksgiving after screening at the Toronto Film Festival in September. David Freyne directs with Miles Teller, Elizabeth Olsen, and Callum Turner making up a love triangle. Costars include John Early, Olga Merediz, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph.

A rare comic relief genre title from A24, word-of-mouth from the north of the border festival was decent if not overwhelmingly positive. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 83% with Metacritic at 65. Despite the presence of Teller and Olsen (who’ve had their share of high profile titles), this should struggle for eyeballs over the five-day holiday frame. Some of its intended audience could be catching up on Wicked: For Good, taking the kids to Zootopia 2, or simply waiting this out for streaming.

I’ll say mid single digits from Friday to Sunday with a couple million added when factoring Wednesday and Thursday.

Eternity opening weekend prediction: $3 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Zootopia 2 prediction, click here:

Zootopia 2 Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Eternity

Miles Teller, Elizabeth Olsen and Callum Turner are in a love triangle in the afterlife set rom com Eternity from director David Freyne. The A24 title releases November 14th and played the Toronto Film Festival. Recent Supporting Actress winner Da’Vine Joy Randolph (said to steal some scenes) and John Early costar.

The studio is hoping its visible leads bring moviegoers out to a genre often relegated to streaming in recent years. Reviews are measured but saying it’s a decent crowdpleaser with 85% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 64 Metacritic. This is unlikely to factor into awards conversations unless it manages to sneak into Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes or with Olsen in lead Actress. I doubt it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Atropia

The Grand Jury Prize at the Sundance Film Festival has been bestowed to eventual Best Picture nominees and one winner six times in the 21st century. That list includes 2009’s Precious, Winter’s Bone from 2010, 2012’s Beasts of the Southern Wild and 2014’s Whiplash, 2020’s Minari, and the victorious CODA of 2021. There’s plenty that never came close to Oscar’s radar such as Like Crazy or The Miseducation of Cameron Post and Nanny.

Atropia seems destined to fall into the latter grouping. The satire from Hailey Gailes unexpectedly took Park City’s top award. Alia Shawkat (known by many from Arrested Development), Callum Turner, Chloë Sevigny, and Tim Heidecker headline. The surprise nature of the Jury designation is due to subpar reviews. Rotten Tomatoes stands at 42% with a 46 Metacritic. That reaction is unlikely to allow this into the Academy’s consciousness. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Boys in the Boat Box Office Prediction

The Boys in the Boat tells the tale of the American crew team during the 1936 Summer Olympics in Berlin and it wades into theaters on Christmas Day. George Clooney directs the true life sports drama with a cast including Callum Turner, Joel Edgerton, Jack Mulhern, Peter Guinness, Hadley Robinson, and James Wolk.

This is Clooney’s first theatrical directorial effort since the 2017 bomb Suburbicon (streaming pics The Midnight Sky and The Tender Bar followed). Boat does not have critics on its side with a 45% Rotten Tomatoes score.

While this will attempt to get adult moviegoers out during the holiday season, the weak reaction and heavy competition (The Iron Claw, The Color Purple, Ferrari) should sink this. Since its opening on December 25th (a Monday in 2023), my estimate is only for that day. I’m barely giving it nine figures for that premiere date.

The Boys in the Boat opening day prediction: $1.1 million (Monday estimate only)

For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Box Office Prediction

For my Migration prediction, click here:

Migration Box Office Prediction

For my The Iron Claw prediction, click here:

The Iron Claw Box Office Prediction

For my Anyone but You prediction, click here:

Anyone but You Box Office Prediction

For my Poor Things prediction, click here:

Poor Things Box Office Prediction

For my The Color Purple prediction, click here:

The Color Purple Box Office Prediction

For my Ferrari prediction, click here:

Ferrari Box Office Prediction

For my Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire prediction, click here:

Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: The Boys in the Boat

George Clooney’s sophomore directorial effort Good Night, and Good Luck garnered six Oscar nominations 18 years ago including Best Picture. It’s been slim pickings awards wise for the six features that he’s followed up with. 2011’s The Ides of March nabbed an Adapted Screenplay nod while 2020’s The Midnight Sky competed for Visual Effects.

The filmmaker’s latest is the true life Olympic sports drama The Boys in the Boat and it debuts Christmas Day. The cast includes Callum Turner, Joel Edgerton, Jack Mulhern, Peter Guinness, Hadley Robinson, and James Wolk.

With its review embargo lapsed, the RT score is a discouraging 47%. The Amazon MGM production did surprisingly manage to make the reported final 20 contenders in Visual Effects. When the shortlist of ten comes out later this week, I would be surprised if it advances to the next cut. I also don’t see much hope for the score from Alexandre Desplat, despite his previous eleven nominations and two victories.

The Boys in the Boat would need lots of good luck to be a factor in any race. Don’t count on it happening. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore Box Office Prediction

J.K. Rowling’s Wizarding World returns on April 15th with Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, the third entry in a franchise that hasn’t spellbound audiences in the same way that Harry Potter did. David Yates, who made the last four Potter pics and previous two Beasts offerings, is back in the director’s chair. Familiar cast members are led by Eddie Redmayne alongside Jude Law (as the title character), Ezra Miller (in what may be his last appearance in the series due to offscreen controversies), Dan Fogler, Alison Sudol, Callum Turner, Jessica Williams, and Katherine Waterston. Speaking of offscreen controversies, Johnny Depp is no longer the villainous Grindelwald as Mads Mikkelsen now fills the role.

COVID and Depp’s recasting kept Secrets from its intended November 2021 debut. With an Easter premiere, Warner Bros is hoping this at least stays on par with predecessor The Crimes of Grindelwald. In 2016, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them took in $74 million for its start with $234 million overall domestically. 2018 follow-up Grindelwald couldn’t match that as it conjured up a Wizarding World opening nadir of $62 million and $159 million total.

Reviews for Secrets are better than those of Grindelwald (60% vs. 36% on Rotten Tomatoes). I’m not sure that will matter all that much. I’m just not sensing the enthusiasm and the three and a half year wait shouldn’t help. This might earn about $15 million less than Crimes to set another low mark.

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore opening weekend prediction: $48.1 million

For my Father Stu prediction, click here:

Father Stu Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore

Of the 10 pictures released thus far in the Wizarding World franchise, all but three have managed at least one Oscar nomination. That’s a 70% ratio and, somewhat surprisingly, there’s only one victory of the 14 total nods. Even more unexpected is that the sole win doesn’t belong to any of the 8 Harry Potter flicks. That honor goes to 2016’s Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them with a Costume Design statue.

On the flip side, its sequel Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald is among the trio that received no love from the Academy. It’s also the lowest grossing feature of the series and received the worst reviews (36% on Rotten Tomatoes).

With that context, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore opens April 15th. The review embargo is lifted and while its 62% is certainly an improvement on its predecessor, it marks the second lowest meter of the group.

So will the 11th entry attract any Oscar attention? Production Design is always a possibility as half of the pics have managed a nod in that category. I’m more skeptical that Visual Effects or Costume Design come into play. My gut says, however, this could be the fourth tale to come up empty-handed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Emma

Emma is the latest adaptation of the 1815 Jane Austen novel and it’s out this weekend in limited release and posting solid numbers. This version stars Anya Taylor-Joy in the title role. She’s best known for her work in the horror genre with The Witch, Split, and Glass. Reviews are praising with a current 88% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

The film marks the debut of director Autumn de Wilde and arrives at an awfully early frame for awards voters to remember it. One of the last renderings of the book was in 1996 with Gwyneth Paltrow starring. It opened in the summer of that year and nabbed Oscar nods for Costume Design and Score. The former category is certainly a possibility. However, like what came before nearly a quarter century ago, I am skeptical this Emma contends for top of the line races.

On the other hand, it wouldn’t be a surprise for this to be placed in the Musical/Comedy lane at the Golden Globes. We have seen years where the Actress derby there is rather weak (including in 2019 when none of the five nominees managed Academy recognition). That could allow Taylor-Joy to be noticed at the Globes. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…