My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.
The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.
In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.
Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.
We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.
You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)
5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)
13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)
15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)
16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)
17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)
18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)
19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)
20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)
21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)
22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)
23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)
25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)
14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew
Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down
David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)
14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Amy Adams, At the Sea
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)
4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)
10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)
11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Robert Aramayo, I Swear
Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!
Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Charles Melton, Saturn Return
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)
9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)
13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning
Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades
Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)
13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)
14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down
Riz Ahmed, Digger
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