Hasbro’s robotic franchise goes animated for the first time in nearly 40 years when Transformers One debuts next weekend. Chris Hemsworth, Scarlett Johansson, Brian Tyree Henry, Keegan-Michael Key, Steve Buscemi, Laurence Fishburne, and Jon Hamm provide voiceover work. Josh Cooley, who helmed Animated Feature winner Toy Story 4 from 2010, directs.
Critical reaction is mostly on the plus side and that’s more than can be said for some other titles in the group. The RT score is 89% with Metacritic at 62. The Tomatoes meter is on par with Bumblebee‘s 90% and far ahead of any others in the series. It also tops the 62% that 1986’s animated The Transformers: The Movie managed.
That said, I doubt this Transformers entry gets the Academy’s attention. 2007’s Transformers earned 3 nods for Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects. The 2009 sequel Revenge of the Fallen nabbed a sole Sound Mixing mention. 2011’s Dark of the Moon received the same 3 noms as the ’07 original. 2017’s Transformers: The Last Knight, of course, was that year’s Best Picture. Nearly everything in this paragraph is true.
Transformers One could compete in Animated Feature, but I’ve yet to put it near my high five. If last year’s acclaimed Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem couldn’t make the cut, I don’t think this does. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts debuts Friday and it marks the seventh entry in the franchise that began in 2007. This has never been a series known for critical acclaim, but reviews have been on the uptick as of late.
The Rotten Tomatoes score for Beasts is 57%. That’s actually tied for second best of the bunch as the first Transformers has the same rating. #1 by far is the 91% achieved by immediate predecessor Bumblebee from 2018. The other four were at 35% or under (2017’s The Last Knight is lowest at 16%).
That said, certain technical aspects were noticed by the Academy for awhile. Part 1 was nominated for Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects (note that these sound races have since been combined). 2009’s follow-up Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen was up for Sound Mixing. 2011’s third adventure Transformers: Dark of the Moon landed the same three mentions as the first. There are no victories among the seven nominations.
However, the next three pics (2014’s Age of Extinction, The Last Knight, Bumblebee) were ignored by voters. And if Bumblebee couldn’t manage a Sound or VE spot, it’s tough to see Beasts rising to the challenge. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts will attempt to topple Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, but that could be a tall order. Beasts is the sole wide release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The seventh entry in the franchise based on the Hasbro toy line will not have the lowest start of the bunch. That belongs and will continue to belong to Bumblebee which started with $21 million over the holidays in 2018. It may, however, have the second smallest if it fails to exceed the $44 million three-day premiere that Transformers: The Last Knight had in the summer of 2017. I am projecting it will fall under that mark.
That should leave Across the Spider-Verse in first position after an amazing rollout this past weekend (more on that below). While I think the sophomore frame dip will be more than 50%, I believe a high 50s gross will comfortably leave it atop the charts.
Holdovers will fill slots 3-5. The Little Mermaid, after an expectedly hefty second weekend fall, should level off and get above $20 million in weekend 3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 may remain fourth since it shouldn’t see a percentage drop as large as The Boogeyman‘s in its second outing.
And with that, here’s how I envision the top five:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $58.4 million
2. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
Predicted Gross: $42.2 million
3. The Little Mermaid
Predicted Gross: $22.5 million
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
5. The Boogeyman
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
Box Office Results (June 2-4)
Swinging the #2 best premiere of 2023 behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie was Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. That’s also the seventh highest animated opening ever. It built upon the goodwill from its 2018 Oscar-winning predecessor and made off with $120.6 million. That’s well beyond my projection of $96.4 million. Look for it to play well throughout the season (and it’s certainly the frontrunner to win Best Animated Feature next year).
The Little Mermaid slipped to second with $41.3 million in its sophomore frame, on track with my $40.5 million take. The ten-day gross for the live-action Disney remake is $186 million. That’s pretty decent, but its overseas earnings are underwhelming.
PG-13 horror flick The Boogeyman, based on a Stephen King short story, couldn’t pick up buzz as Spidey sucked up all the oxygen. It made $12.3 million for third, falling below my $17.7 million prediction.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was fourth with $10.6 million (I said $9.6 million) as the MCU threequel is up to $323 million after five weeks.
Fast X rounded out the top five with $9.5 million compared to my $10.1 million forecast. It’s doing better internationally, but the three-week $128 million domestic haul is unimpressive.
Representing the longest drought between entries, it’s been nearly four and a half years without Optimus onscreen. Paramount is hoping audiences will be primed for the franchise’s return as Transformers: Rise of the Beasts debuts on June 9th. This is the seventh installment of the series that started in 2007 with Michael Bay helming the first five. He produces while Steven Caple Jr. (best known for Creed II) directs. The non-voiceover cast includes Anthony Ramos, Dominique Fishback, Luna Lauren Vélez, Tobe Ngigwe, and Michael Kelly. Those voices behind the various title bots include Peter Cullen, Ron Perlman, Peter Dinklage, Michelle Yeoh, Lisa Koshy, Michaela Jaé Rodriguez, Pete Davidson, Colman Domingo, John DiMaggio, and David Sobolov.
Beasts serves as a direct follow-up to 2018’s Bumblebee and a prequel to editions I-V. The Transformers pics have certainly seen their fortunes fade in recent years. Domestically the peak was Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, which earned $402 million overall stateside. The first three titles all grossed north of $300 million. By 2017, Transformers: The Last Knight managed $130 million. Bumblebee was a smidge under at $127 million.
To be fair, expectations for Bumblebee weren’t nearly as high and it rode decent reviews and solid buzz to a commendable leg out over the holidays. The lengthy break may not help Beasts and there’s no returning human stars from previous adventures.
This only needs to top $21 million to avoid a franchise low three-day beginning. It should have no trouble there. The better comp is probably The Last Knight which premiered with $44 million for its Friday to Sunday take (though it made $68 million when you count its Wednesday start). I’ll say Beasts falls a bit shy of that.
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts opening weekend prediction: $42.2 million
Steven Spielberg has executive produced all five Transformers movies prior to Bumblebee and he holds that title here. Yet it’s in this prequel/spin-off that his influence feels the most pronounced. In the case of this franchise, that’s a welcome development. Michael Bay’s quintet of loud metal on metal action orgies that began in 2007 are generally nonsensical explosion excuses with occasional jaw dropping moments. Travis Knight, taking over directorial duties, gives Bumblebee a heart and the loudest audio belongs to the terrific 80s soundtrack.
This is a prequel and the happenings occur in 1987, which explains The Smiths, Duran Duran, and Tears for Fears providing the tunes. A prologue on the planet Cybertron shows our title character (voiced by Dylan O’Brien) being sent to Earth by Optimus Prime in order to escape death by The Decepticons. He crash lands, of all places, right in the middle of a military training exercise in California where no nonsense Colonel Jack Burns (John Cena) assumes him to be a hostile creature. Bumblebee manages to transform into that iconic 1967 Volkswagen Beetle, but not after being rendered mute when his voice box is disabled. By the way, this all happens in like ten minutes. Pacing is not an issue in this picture, unlike other bloated Transformers flicks.
That Beetle ends up in a junkyard frequented by Charlie (Hailee Steinfeld), a gear head who’s just turned 18. It’s her storyline that brings the Spielberg vibes front and center. She’s experienced parental loss as her beloved father has passed. She’s an outcast in the suburbs. Charlie has an awkward pending romance with her neighbor (Jorge Lendeborg Jr.). There’s also a resistance to diving (even though she’s a terrific diver) that we correctly assume will figure into the plot. She also works at a low rent amusement park that looks straight outta Adventureland. When she commandeers the Volkswagen, she discovers the giant yellow extraterrestrial and befriends him. Their relationship is quite E.T. like, if that alien had tires strapped to his back and communicated through radio waves playing Steve Winwood.
Knight, maker of the acclaimed KuboandtheTwoStrings, is making a Transformers experience that could have been made in the 80s. And it mostly works. There’s only so much he can do with the fight scenes after the Decepticons (voiced by Angela Bassett and Justin Theroux) track Bumblebee to this planet. The tech team here manages to make them easier to follow than Bay’s mashups. So when Colonel Burns and other dumber than they should be government types get involved in the plot, I found myself actually caring a bit. That’s due to screenwriter Christina Hodson’s establishment of Charlie as a full fledged character and Steinfeld’s work elevating her. Her charming interaction with Bee is enough to warrant something the Transformers epics don’t get and that’s a recommendation.
Three newbies make their way to the screen this weekend as canine tale ADog’sWayHome, Kevin Hart/Bryan Cranston comedic drama TheUpside, and the Keanu Reeves sci-fi thriller Replicas debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Even with the trio of openings, it appears Aquaman will glide into a fourth straight weekend atop the charts with a high teens take. The superhero saga’s reign will certainly end the following weekend with Glass being unveiled.
Other titles will likely struggle to reach the teens. I have Dog’s managing a #2 showing with TheUpside not far behind.
Replicas appears to be getting dumped and my $3.4 million projection leaves it well outside the top five. We have an expansion with OntheBasisofSex, the Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic that’s performed well in limited release and is slated for approximately 2000 screens Friday. I’ll put its number at $7.9 million. I believe that gets it to a 7th place rollout.
Returnees EscapeRoom and MaryPoppinsReturns are my picks for the rest of the high-five and here’s the estimates:
1. Aquaman
Predicted Gross: $17.7 million
2. ADog’sWayHome
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
3. TheUpside
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
4. EscapeRoom
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
5. MaryPoppinsReturns
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
BoxOfficeResults (January4–6)
As anticipated, Aquaman logged another frame in first place with $31 million, topping my $27.9 million projection for an impressive $260 million three-week total.
New horror thriller EscapeRoom made off with a terrific $18.2 million start in second, more than doubling its meager $9 million budget.
MaryPoppinsReturns fell to third in its third weekend with $15.8 million compared to my higher $18.7 million prediction. Total tally is $138 million.
Bumblebee was fourth with $13.2 million (I said $12.2 million) as it sniffs the century mark at $97 million.
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse rounded out the top five with $13.1 million, slinging beyond my $10.9 million forecast. It’s made $133 million thus far.
Happy New Year and welcome to the first box office predictions for 2019. It should be a weekend led by holiday holdovers with the only newcomer being horror pic EscapeRoom. You can find my detailed prediction post on it here:
My low teens projection puts the newbie in the #3 slot, behind returning champions Aquaman and MaryPoppinsReturns, with Bumblebee and Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse filling out the rest of the top five.
Let’s see how I have the high-five playing out:
1. Aquaman
Predicted Gross: $27.9 million
2. MaryPoppinsReturns
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
3. EscapeRoom
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
4. Bumblebee
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
5. Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
BoxOfficeResults (December28–30)
2018 was a record year at multiplexes and it closed out with Aquaman repeating in first place with $52.1 million, in range with my $53.8 million forecast. The DC superhero tale has amassed $189 million total.
MaryPoppinsReturns was in the runner-up position yet again with $28.3 million compared to my $26.5 million estimate. The Disney sequel stands at $99 million.
Bumblebee was third with $20.9 million (I said $21.4 million) for $67 million overall.
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse was fourth with $18.8 million, a touch higher than my $17.3 million take. The acclaimed animated feature crossed the century mark at $104 million.
TheMule rounded out the top five with $12.1 million, in line with my $11.5 million prediction. The Clint Eastwood thriller has made $61 million.
Vice was sixth and made the most of the two Christmas openers with $7.7 million over the traditional frame and $17.6 million since its Tuesday debut. The Dick Cheney biopic managed to top my respective estimates of $7.2 million and $14.8 million.
The critically lambasted Holmes&Watson had an underwhelming start in seventh with $7.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $19.8 million since Christmas Day. It came in under my projections of $11.3 million and $23 million.
SecondAct was eighth in its sophomore frame at $7.3 million (I said $7.9 million) for a tally of $21 million.
RalphBreakstheInternet was ninth at $6.7 million, ahead of my $5.2 million prediction. It’s up to $175 million.
TheGrinch had a hefty drop-off in 10th at $4.1 million, well under my $7.3 million forecast. The total gross is $265 million.
It’s Christmas Week at the box office as the merrily confusing week officially gets underway tomorrow! We have two newbies debuting on Christmas Day with the Will Ferrell/John C. Reilly comedy Holmes&Watson and Adam McKay biopic Vice starring Christian Bale as Dick Cheney. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:
As I see it, both risk not making the top five as I deduce Watson will premiere with low double digits over the traditional three-day portion of the frame with Vice under that. Returning holiday offerings often see increases in their grosses from the previous weekend. I expect that to benefit titles such as MaryPoppinsReturns, Bumblebee, Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse, and TheMule as well as SecondAct and TheGrinch further down the chart.
Poppins came in below expectations this past weekend. If you’d asked me a week ago, I would’ve strongly suspected the Disney sequel would rise to top spot this weekend and knock current champ Aquaman down to second. Now, even though I expect the waterlogged superhero to have a decline in its sophomore frame, I feel it should manage to maintain the #1 position pretty easily.
As I close the box office predicting year out, let’s expand the list to my top 10 projections as I wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
1. Aquaman
Predicted Gross: $53.8 million
2. MaryPoppinsReturns
Predicted Gross: $26.5 million
3. Bumblebee
Predicted Gross: $21.4 million
4. Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse
Predicted Gross: $17.3 million
5. TheMule
Predicted Gross: $11.5 million
6. Holmes & Watson
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $23 million (Tuesday to Sunday)
7. SecondAct
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
8. TheGrinch
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million
9. Vice
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $14.8 million (Tuesday to Sunday)
10. RalphBreakstheInternet
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
BoxOfficeResults (December21–23)
The pre-Christmas frame saw a slew of new debuts and they nearly all came in with less than I anticipated. It’s worth noting that most of these holidays numbers are not yet final and I’ll fill in those verified grosses once they occur.
As expected, Aquaman logged the #1 spot with $68 million, under my $77.3 million. I expect the DC effort to dip in the mid 20s this coming weekend. When factoring in early preview numbers, it’s made $72.7 million thus far.
Disney’s MaryPoppinsReturns opened in second with less with anticipated returns grossing $23.5 million over the weekend and $32.3 million since its Wednesday beginning. That’s quite a bit under my respective projections of $34.8 million and $52.2 million. The well-reviewed sequel will hope for leggy earnings as the weeks roll along.
Bumblebee took third with $21.6 million, premiering under my $26.2 million prediction. The Transformers prequel actually had the best critical reaction of the newcomers and also has a shot of playing well in the coming weeks.
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse fell to fourth in its sophomore outing with $16.6 million (I was higher at $20.1 million). The acclaimed animated hero tale is up to $64 million.
Clint Eastwood’s TheMule rounded out the top five at $9.5 million (I said $10.2 million) for $35 million at press time.
Jennifer Lopez’s romantic comedy SecondAct debuted in seventh place with $6.4 million. I was right there at $6.5 million.
Finally, the poorly reviewed Steve Carell drama WelcometoMarwen was a massive flop in ninth place with $2.3 million, not even matching my $3.8 million take. This is quite the costly bomb for its studio.
Blogger’s Note (12/18/18): Some updates as Aquaman estimate have risen and MaryPoppinsReturns has dwindled a bit.
Hollywood is hoping that Yuletide cheer is spread among a host of newcomers opening this weekend. We have superhero fish tale Aquaman, Disney sequel Mary Poppins Returns arriving over a half century following its classic predecessor, Transformers franchise prequel Bumblebee, Jennifer Lopez rom com Second Act, and the Robert Zemeckis drama Welcome to Marwen starring Steve Carell. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all of them here:
Expectations for Aquaman have floated upwards in recent days with decent reviews and terrific numbers overseas. It seems destined to rule the charts with a mid 70s performance and the possibility of rising even higher.
Mary Poppins Returns gets an early start on Wednesday and the runner-up spot appears to be a given. It’s also benefiting from mostly strong critical reaction and some Oscar chatter.
Speaking of critics, we were all taken aback when Bumblebee achieved its own positive buzz with a current 98% rating on Rotten Tomatoes (that’s better than the last four movies in the series… combined). Having the best reviews of a Transformers pic should certainly help , but competition is seriously steep and the franchise has been on the downside. I’ve got it pegged for mid 20s, but don’t be surprised if it over performs.
With Second Act estimated at $6.5 million and Welcome to Marwen (which seems DOA) at $3.8 million, that would put both of them outside the top 5. Last weekend’s top two earners Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and The Mule should fill out the rest of high-five.
And with that, here’s those merry projections:
1. Aquman
Predicted Gross: $77.3 million
2. Mary Poppins Returns
Predicted Gross: $34.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $52.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
The Spider-Man character, through seven films this century, has never failed to open at #1. The streak held as the acclaimed Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse took in $35.3 million, not quite reaching my $43.4 million forecast. With an A+ Cinemascore grade, this should play well throughout the holiday season. I do expect a drop of just over 40% coming up considering the level of competition, but that should subside the following weekend.
Clint Eastwood’s The Mule got off to a solid start in second as a prime option for older moviegoers. The thriller took in $17.5 million and I was as close as can be with $17.6 million. Like Spidey, it may dip about 40% and then level off well in coming weekends.
The Grinch was third with $11.7 million (I said $10.8 million) to bring its total to a pleasing $239 million.
Ralph Breaks the Internet dropped to fourth after three weeks at #1 with $9.2 million, in line with my $9.7 million estimate. The Disney sequel has taken in $154 million.
Mortal Engines staked its claim for biggest flop of the year as the Peter Jackson penned sci-fi adventure stalled in fifth place with just $7.5 million. I was higher at $12.4 million. That doesn’t bode well when its reported budget was $100 million.
Finally, the PG-13 Once Upon a Deadpool failed to attract many eyeballs in 11th place with $2.6 million – under my $4.2 million prediction. The good news? The very R-rated sequel that preceded it this summer was already at about $315 million domestic.
Times have changed in significant ways for the Transformers franchise that started eleven years ago. They manifest themselves with the release next weekend of Bumblebee, a prequel to the multi-billion series. For starters, Michael Bay is not in the director’s chair for the first time after making the first five. Travis Knight, most known for the acclaimed animated KuboandtheTwoStrings, takes over those duties. Hailee Steinfeld headlines the 1980s set tale alongside John Cena, Jorge Lendeborg Jr., John Ortiz, and the voice of Dylan O’Brien as the title Autobot.
A second major difference: Bumblebee is unexpectedly getting very good reviews with a current Rotten Tomatoes rating of 97%. Nearly every sequel since the 2007 original has been critically lambasted while still bringing in the bucks. Positive word-of-mouth should only help, but competition is fierce as the holidays approach. Two days before this debuts, MaryPoppinsReturns is out and will take away family audiences. Opening directly against it is Aquaman, which will siphon away action fans.
Which brings us to point #3 – expectations have fallen for the franchise and Paramount hopes its best revenge is better than anticipated returns. This will almost surely have the smallest premiere of the series. That’s even with the caveat that four of the five Transformers pics got early jumps and opened during the middle of the week. The series showed rust in the summer of 2017 when TheLastKnight had a $44 million traditional Friday to Sunday rollout and a $130 million domestic haul (by far the lowest of the quintet).
Add all that up and I’m not convinced the pleasing critical (ahem) buzz gets this beyond mid 20s considering its venerable competitors.
Bumblebee opening weekend prediction: $26.2 million
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