Todd’s October Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

We’ve arrived at my second round of Oscar predictions in the category of Best Actor and like Best Actress yesterday, there’s only been one change since my initial predictions in early September.

It’s Don Cheadle’s work in Miles Ahead that has been omitted and this is for two reasons: it got mixed reviews on the film fest circuit and it’s likely been pushed back to 2016. Taking his place: Johnny Depp’s work as Whitey Bulger in Black Mass, which has earned the star some of the best reviews of his career.

The remaining four: Michael Caine in Youth, Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant, Michael Fassbender as Steve Jobs, and last year’s winner Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl.

I believe Caine could be the most vulnerable of the group and there’s a number of actors that could swoop in and replace him. That list now appears to be topped by Will Smith in Concussion or Matt Damon in The Martian, which has skyrocketed to critical acclaim and terrific box office numbers since my first predictions.

As for now, not a lot has changed here but we’ll see if that remains when my third round is released in November.

TODD’S BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS (OCTOBER EDITION)

Michael Caine, Youth

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

Bradley Cooper, Burnt

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Matt Damon, The Martian

Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight

Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes

Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul

Will Smith, Concussion

Best Director and Best Picture predictions for the second time around will be up on the blog soon!

2015 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

How about this for a 2015 Best Actor category? You could have Miles Davis, Steve Jobs, Dalton Trumbo, Whitey Bulger, Dan Rather, Hank Williams, Edward Snowden, and Lance Armstrong all competing against one another? Yep, it’s true as this year’s possibilities contain a number of high-profile performers playing real life characters.

Today is part four of my very early Oscar predictions. In 2014, I made my initial round at the same time. For the races of Best Actress and Supporting Actor and Actress, these early 2014 prognostications yielded just two of the eventual five nominees. Yet last year in the Best Actor race, they correctly predicted four of the five eventual nominees and the fifth was mentioned in the other possibilities section.

Back to the real life folks. Of the many I mentioned, I currently only have Don Cheadle’s work as Miles Davis in Miles Ahead and Michael Fassbender’s portrayal of Steve Jobs getting in. Fassbender, it should be noted, also remains a contender for this fall’s Macbeth. Any of the others mentioned could bubble up: Bryan Cranston in Trumbo, Johnny Depp as Whitey Bulger in Black Mass, Robert Redford as Dan Rather in Truth, Tom Hiddleston as Hank Williams in I Saw the Light, Ben Foster as Lance Armstrong in The Program, and Joseph Gordon-Levitt as Snowden. Like Fassbender, Gordon-Levitt could be a contender for Robert Zemeckis’s The Walk, too.

Last year’s winner Eddie Redmayne has a showy role in the period piece transgender drama The Danish Girl and he could easily see a second nod in as many years. Beloved veteran thespian Michael Caine has received raves for Youth. And Leonardo DiCaprio, who’s yet to win, is sure to receive attention for December’s The Revenant. 

As festivals begin to roll on and some of these aforementioned films will be reviewed, the picture should continue to become clearer. As for now:

TODD’S EARLY PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTOR

Michael Caine, Youth

Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

Bradley Cooper, Burnt

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Matt Damon, The Martian

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Michael Fassbender, Macbeth

Colin Firth, Genius

Ben Foster, The Program

Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Snowden

Joseph Gordon-Levitt, The Walk

Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Tom Hardy, Legend

Tom Hiddleston, I Saw the Light

Brad Pitt, By the Sea

Robert Redford, Truth

Best Director will be up tomorrow with Best Picture on Saturday! Stay tuned…

If you missed my previous posts covering Actress and the Supporting races, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/02/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/01/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/29/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

Godzilla (2014) Movie Review

Let’s say you got invited to a party and were told that Godzilla, the king of movie monsters, was going to be in attendance. You get there and for a while, you hear quite a bit of backstory about him. There’s even a celebrated TV actor who you’re so happy is appearing, even though he overacts almost laughably from time to time. Also, other monsters show up who you’re not as familiar with and feel a little ambivalent towards. Godzilla doesn’t even bother showing up until halfway through the event. Yet when he does it’s pretty cool. You decide that it was worth it.

And so it is with Godzilla and that’s the kind of party director Gareth Edwards chose to throw bringing back the iconic character to the screen. The last time an American studio featured the jolly green giant, it was with Roland Emmerich behind the camera and Matthew Broderick starring in the summer of 1998. That flick was a “disaster movie” in more ways than one and despite its $379 million worldwide total, it was considered a huge critical and commercial disappointment.

The glass is more half full sixteen years later. That celebrated TV actor is Walter Freaking White himself, Bryan Cranston! And, yes, his performance is a touch over the top. Contrary to what its TV spots might lead you to believe, he doesn’t even stick around the party as long as you’d think either. Cranston plays an engineer at a Japanese nuclear power plant who’s been monitoring troubling seismic activity. One of his coworkers is his wife (Juliette Binoche) and she tragically perishes when the seismic activity turns into a full-on disaster at the plant.

Flash forward to fifteen years later when Cranston’s son (Aaron Taylor-Johnson) is now a military bomb technician with a family of his own, while overacting Daddy is still in Japan trying to track what killed his wife. Circumstances bring them together and in contact with other scientists, led by Ken Watanabe and Sally Hawkins. And after about an hour – not only is Godzilla checked in at the party, but so are two MUTOs (Massive Unidentified Terrestrial Organisms). And as scientist Watanabe waxes philosophical about, our title character might be around to stop those other monsters from wreaking even more havoc. The military, led by David Strathairn, naturally disagree.

Godzilla does take its time to get going, but when it does we’re rewarded with some ultra cool action sequences. A MUTO in Las Vegas is a fun sight to see, as is Godzilla’s initial appearance in Hawaii where vacationers are treated to far more than they paid for.

Tayl0r-Johnson (of Kick-Ass fame) is the human star of these proceedings and we get some familiar scenes of him keeping in touch with his wife at home (Elizabeth Olsen) and young son. Home is San Francisco and that means an action set piece located at the Golden Gate Bridge, which brings me to an important point. Can we get a moratorium on the Golden Gate Bridge for big action spectacles??? After X-Men: The Last Stand and Rise of the Planet of the Apes – enough already. There are other bridges in this country.

Nevertheless, director Edwards brings to the table what Roland Emmerich didn’t – a genuine respect and understanding of the monster genre he’s playing in. And the second half of this party in particular has lots of solid moments that make it worthwhile. For the first time in a long time, we have a Godzilla done mostly right.

*** (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: May 16-18

It’s the battle of AMC stars Bryan Cranston and Jon Hamm as the summer season rolls along entering weekend #3 with monster flick Godzilla and Disney sports drama Million Dollar Arm entering the marketplace. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/11/godzilla-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/11/million-dollar-arm-box-office-prediction/

Godzilla with Cranston should very easily dominate while a more interesting scenario could play out for the runner-up spot. Last weekend’s champ Neighbors had a bigger than expected opening (more on that below), however it received only a B Cinemascore grade which is lower than I would’ve thought. That means it could be in store for a larger sophomore drop-off than I might have earlier anticipated. This could set it up for a close showdown with Million Dollar Arm, starring Hamm.

As for the rest of the top five, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 should experience another healthy fall in its third weekend while The Other Woman rounds out the group.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Godzilla

Predicted Gross: $77.3 million

2. Neighbors

Predicted Gross: $24.3 million (representing a drop of 50%)

3. Million Dollar Arm

Predicted Gross: $23.4 million

4. The Amazing Spider-Man 2

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million (representing a drop of 53%)

5. The Other Woman

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (May 9-11)

The Seth Rogen/Zac Efron comedy Neighbors scored a truly impressive debut with $49 million, well above my $37.3M projection. The well-reviewed frat pic scored the fifth highest R rated comedy opening of all time, after The Hangover Part II, Sex and the City, Ted, and Jackass 3-D.

Dropping to second was The Amazing Spider-Man 2, plummeting a healthy 61% with $35.5 million, below my $40.6M estimate. The Spidey sequel has not met expectations domestically and it’s on course to certainly be the lowest grossing pic in the franchise yet. Sony and Marvel might be in for a major brainstorming session in order for the planned third and fourth installments to reverse this troubling trend.

The Other Woman with Cameron Diaz was third with $9.6 million in weekend #3, holding up stronger than my $7.6M prediction. In fourth, Heaven Is for Real also performed better than my prediction with my $7.4 million (I said $5M). The fifth and sixth spots went to sequel holdovers that I didn’t include in my top six estimates: Captain America: The Winter Soldier took in $5.7 million and Rio 2 made $5 million.

This means the other two newbies this weekend posted lackluster results. The faith based Moms’ Night Out was seventh with $4.3 million, slightly under my $5.1M projection. The animated Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return tanked in eighth with $3.7 million, below my moderate $5.7M estimate.

That’s all for now. folks!

 

Godzilla Box Office Prediction

The giant green monster is back in theaters this Friday with Godzilla from director Gareth Edwards. This is certainly being seen as one of summer 2014s’s tent pole releases and Warner Bros. is certainly hoping for massive results.

Godzilla has been assisted from some truly terrific trailers and a healthy marketing campaign. Obviously, the name recognition of the title character is off the charts. The real people cast includes Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Elizabeth Olsen, Ken Watanabe, Juliette Binoche, Sally Hawkins, and, yes… Walter freaking White himself… Bryan Cranston! Not everything Godzilla related over the recent past was met with positive results. Sixteen summers ago, Roland Emmerich’s highly publicized Godzilla pic was widely expected to be a huge blockbuster, especially after the director had hit gold with Independence Day two years prior. Instead, it managed only an OK $136 million gross and was widely panned by critics and audiences alike.

The 2014 version is unlikely to suffer the same fate. Reviews so far have generally been fairly positive to mixed. I don’t see Godzilla opening in the neighborhood of the Captain America or Amazing Spider-Man sequels which both topped $90 million. For Godzilla, anything below $70M would likely be seen as disappointing. It is worth noting that much of Godzilla‘s total gross will come from international markets. The most sensible scenario domestically  is a gross just north of $75M, though it could certainly surprise. However, I’ll play it rather safe with this pick.

Godzilla opening weekend prediction: $77.3 million

For my Million Dollar Arm prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/11/million-dollar-arm-box-office-prediction/