Out in limited release tomorrow before its Netflix premiere on November 19, Tick, Tick… Boom! marks the long awaited big screen directorial debut of Lin-Manuel Miranda. The Hamilton sensation already has the EGT (Emmy, Grammy, Tony) in the EGOT (the O is for Oscar obviously) and he has multiple projects in 2021 to contend for it.
Tick is an adaptation of Jonathan Larson’s own autobiographical Off Broadway musical and features Andrew Garfield portraying the late creator of Rent. Having screened at the AFI Fest, reviews are trickling in. Some of the critical reaction is not overly gushing, but there’s enough praise that it could contend in multiple races. First and foremost is Best Actor with Garfield and I’m feeling more confident that he could snag one of the five spots. If so, it would mark his second nod five years after Hacksaw Ridge. His chances in lead, in my view, are greater than in supporting with The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
Garfield’s inclusion is the only competition where I’m relatively confident. That said, the Academy could fall for Miranda’s first foray behind the camera and that could open up Picture and maybe even Supporting Actor (where Robin de Jesus is generating some solid ink). I don’t look for much chatter for remaining supporting cast which includes Alexandra Shipp, Vanessa Hudgens, Judith Light, and Bradley Whitford. I’m also skeptical Adapted Screenplay comes into the mix, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility.
Miranda’s strongest shot at his own nomination could come with another project: Disney’s upcoming animated Encanto in the Original Song derby. In the Heights, the reworking of his acclaimed play that faltered at the box office over the summer, has seen its prospects dim.
Bottom line: Garfield has likely played his way into Best Actor while attention elsewhere seems questionable. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
My weekly Oscar predictions as we close out August have a bit of a Christmas Eve feel to them. Better yet, Film Festival Eve as Venice kicks off next week where cinematic presents will be laid out for consideration. The first 2021 Oscar predictions of September will come with reviews out for major contenders, most notably Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog which currently stands at #1 in Picture and Director.
That’s not all. When I post next Thursday, there should be buzz for Pedro Almodovar’s Parallel Mothers and Paul Schrader’s The Card Counter. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter, Edgar Wright’s Last Night in Soho, Paolo Sorrentino’s The Hand of God, Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel, and Denis Villeneuve’s Dune will follow shortly after that.
Same goes for Pablo Larrain’s Spencer. That could make Best Actress a little clearer due to Kristen Stewart’s work as Princess Diana. Miss Stewart makes her first appearance in my five hopefuls in that race. This is partly due to taking Kirsten Dunst from lead to supporting. It remains to be seen where Dunst ends up. That move and her inclusion in Supporting Actress knocks out Toni Collette in Nightmare Alley.
There are other changes:
In Best Picture, I continue to tinker with the 10 spot. This week, I have vaulted Paolo Sorrentino’s The Hand of God up 12 spots to get in the mix. Falling out is Stephen Karam’s The Humans. The switch-up also puts God in Original Screenplay over A Hero.
We have changes at #1 in both Actor and Supporting Actor. Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog tops lead and that slides Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) to 2nd. Bradley Cooper returns to first position in supporting for Soggy Bottom over Dog’s Jesse Plemons.
You can peruse all the activity below as Venice looms!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Soggy Bottom (PR: 5)
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
7. Dune (PR: 6)
8. West Side Story (PR: 9)
9. CODA (PR: 8)
10. The Hand of God (PR: 22)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Humans (PR: 10)
12. The French Dispatch (PR: 13)
13. Mass (PR: 11)
14. Belfast (PR: 14)
15. A Hero (PR: 12)
16. Flee (PR: 15)
17. Spencer (PR: 17)
18. Last Night in Soho (PR: 19)
19. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 16)
20. The Last Duel (PR: 25)
21. King Richard (PR: 18)
22. Parallel Mothers (PR: 21)
23. Passing (PR: 20)
24. Being the Ricardos (PR: 23)
25. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2)
3. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 8)
11. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 13)
12. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 11)
13. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 12)
14. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 10)
15. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Stephen Karam, The Humans
Fran Kranz, Mass
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3)
4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 6)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 7)
7. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 12)
8. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9)
9. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 11)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 8)
11. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 10)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 13)
13. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 14)
14. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 15)
15. Halle Berry, Bruised (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (moved to Supporting Actress)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
2. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1)
3. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 11)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6)
8. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7)
9. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10)
10. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 8)
11. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 12)
12. Steven Yeun, The Humans (PR: 9)
13. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 14)
14. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 13)
15. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead Actress)
3. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 4)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 3)
5. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5)
7. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6)
8. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 9)
9. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
10. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8)
11. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 12)
12. Olga Merediz, In the Heights (PR: 11)
13. Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos (PR: 14)
14. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog
Salma Hayek, House of Gucci
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom (PR: 3)
2. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2)
4. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 7)
7. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6)
8. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8)
9. Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 9)
11. Simon Helberg, Annette (PR: 13)
12. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall (PR: 10)
13. Reed Birney, Mass (PR: 12)
14. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
We are a mere two weeks away from the Venice Film Festival and that will be followed up in short order by Telluride and Toronto. It is then that a number of titles mentioned below will receive their first critical reactions. That will translate into whether their Oscar buzz is real or fleeting.
As for this week, there are some changes in the rankings and projections as follows:
We have ourselves a new #1 in Best Picture and Director and that is Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, supplanting Ridley Scott’s House of Gucci. The film is a mainstay on the upcoming festival circuit and it could well be Netflix’s prime contender.
The 10 spot in Best Picture has a change. I’ve soured a bit on Asghar Farhadi’s A Hero. While I strongly feel it will contend in Best International Feature Film, I’m changing it out for Stephen Karam’s The Humans – the cinematic version of his acclaimed play. It jumps 11 spots to get into the BP derby. The Humans also is now forecasted for Adapted Screenplay to the detriment of CODA.
Amir Jadidi’s performance in A Hero is removed from the top five in Best Actor with Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) taking the slot.
After viewing CODA, I believe Troy Kotsur (playing Marlee Matlin’s randy husband) could find a way into Supporting Actor. I don’t have him in the five, but Kotsur makes his first appearance in the race at #9.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 1)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Soggy Bottom (PR: 5)
6. Dune (PR: 6)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. CODA (PR: 8)
9. West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. The Humans (PR: 21)
Other Possibilities:
11. Mass (PR: 11)
12. A Hero (PR: 10)
13. The French Dispatch (PR: 12)
14. Belfast (PR: 13)
15. Flee (PR: 19)
16. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 16)
17. Spencer (PR: 15)
18. King Richard (PR: 14)
19. Last Night in Soho (PR: 22)
20. Passing (PR: 20)
21. Parallel Mothers (PR: 17)
22. The Hand of God (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Being the Ricardos (PR: 24)
24. Cyrano (PR: 18)
25. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blue Bayou
In the Heights
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 3)
3. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4)
4. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 8)
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 10)
12. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 11)
13. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 12)
14. Stephen Karam, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Fran Kranz, Mass (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers
Pablo Larrain, Spencer
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 5)
4. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 6)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 7)
8. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 8)
9. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9)
10. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 12)
11. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
12. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 11)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 14)
14. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 13)
15. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Halle Berry, Bruised
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7)
7. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 6)
8. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 5)
9. Steven Yeun, The Humans (PR: 12)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 11)
11. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9)
12. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 14)
13. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 10)
14. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 13)
15. Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom (PR: 15)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
2. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 4)
3. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 2)
4. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 3)
5. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: 12)
7. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8)
9. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 6)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog (PR: 9)
11. Olga Merediz, In the Heights (PR: 11)
12. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 13)
13. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 10)
14. Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos (PR: 14)
15. Salma Hayek, House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 3)
3. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom (PR: 2)
4. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9)
7. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 6)
8. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
9. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall (PR: 11)
11. Bradley Whitford, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 12)
12. Reed Birney, Mass (PR: 8)
13. Simon Helberg, Annette (PR: 15)
14. David Alvarez, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Film festival season is approaching with Toronto, Venice, Telluride, and more. The early days of September will assist in answering plenty of questions as to the Oscar viability of several pictures.
As for this mid August timeframe, we mostly wait. However, one contender’s chances are clearer than last week. The Aretha Franklin biopic Respect, as I suspected, will not play in Best Picture. Yet the raves for Jennifer Hudson keep me believing she could make the final five in what looks to be a crowded field. Hudson remains in the four spot. The many performances left to witness will eventually answer whether she remains.
There is some movement in the other categories:
CODA was one of the acclaimed titles at Sundance and it releases on Apple TV tomorrow. Widely regarded as a crowdpleaser, I’m feeling more hopeful that it makes the top ten in BP. To make room, I’ve removed another buzzed about Sundance effort – Mass. I’ll confess that Mass is a head scratcher for me at press time. The four main leads (Jason Isaacs, Ann Dowd, Reed Birney, Martha Plimpton) will apparently all be campaigned for in the supporting fields. Dowd seems the most assured to make it, but they all could. However, both Isaacs and Plimpton are being taken out of my predicted five.
That means Toni Collette for Nightmare Alley is in over Plimpton in Supporting Actress. It felt strange not to have at least one actor from Guillermo del Toro’s upcoming pic in the mix. That could also be Rooney Mara in the same race.
In Supporting Actor, taking out Isaacs puts Corey Hawkins (The Tragedy of Macbeth) in. I’ve also made a switch in the #1 position. Bradley Cooper has had it the first two weeks for Soggy Bottom and now it’s Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog.
The lead actor and screenplay derbies reflect the same five as last week.
Check out all the movement below! I’ll be back at it next week…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
6. Dune (PR: 5)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. CODA (PR: 11)
9. West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. A Hero (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
11. Mass (PR: 8)
12. The French Dispatch (PR: 13)
13. Belfast (PR: 12)
14. King Richard (PR: 16)
15. Spencer (PR: 14)
16. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 17)
17. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Cyrano (PR: 15)
19. Flee (PR: 18)
20. Passing (PR: Not Ranked)
21. The Humans (PR: 19)
22. Last Night in Soho (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Blue Bayou (PR: 20)
24. Being the Ricardos (PR: 23)
25. In the Heights (PR: 24)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
The Worst Person in the World
Annette
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
4. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8)
8. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 7)
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 12)
11. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 13)
12. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 11)
13. Fran Kranz, Mass (PR: 10)
14. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Joe Wright, Cyrano
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 4)
5. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 6)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 9)
8. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 7)
9. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10)
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8)
11. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 12)
12. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 11)
13. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 13)
14. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 15)
15. Halle Berry, Bruised (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10)
10. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 8)
11. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 11)
12. Steven Yeun, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 12)
14. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 13)
15. Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Michael B. Jordan, A Journal for Jordan
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 2)
3. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 4)
4. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 3)
5. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 5)
7. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 11)
8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 7)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog (PR: 10)
10. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 13)
11. Olga Merediz, In the Heights (PR: 9)
12. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8)
13. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 12)
14. Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Audra McDonald, Respect
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
2. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom (PR: 1)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 4)
4. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5)
5. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 3)
7. Richard E. Grant, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie (PR: 7)
8. Reed Birney, Mass (PR: 10)
9. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9)
10. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
As we await film festivals that will shed light on many of the pictures mentioned below, today brings us my second weekly outlook on the major Oscar categories.
So what’s happened since last Thursday? That House of Gucci trailer came out and it didn’t do anything to dissuade my feeling that it’s a contender. In fact, while I shouldn’t use trailers to judge, it was enough for me to put Jared Leto in my final five (taking out Idris Elba for The Harder They Fall).
In other developments:
A Hero is in my top 10 for Best Picture over Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast. The film also is in my projections for Original Screenplay to the detriment of Blue Bayou.
CODA (which I was very tempted this week to put in BP) makes the Adapted Screenplay cut over Dune.
The Director, Actress, Actor, and Supporting Actress fields remain the same – with some movement in the rankings.
By this time next week, we should have a good idea of where Jennifer Hudson’s performance in Respect stands since it releases next week. It remains in my five at spot four.
Finally, I didn’t have Matt Damon in Stillwater listed in my top 15 possibilities last week. Based on the film’s subpar box office performance and some comments that landed Damon in hot water, I don’t anticipate him surfacing at any point.
Check out all the activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Dune (PR: 5)
6. Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 10)
8. Mass (PR: 7)
9. West Side Story (PR: 8)
10. A Hero (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. CODA (PR: 12)
12. Belfast (PR: 9)
13. The French Dispatch (PR: 14)
14. Spencer (PR: 15)
15. Cyrano (PR: 17)
16. King Richard (PR: 20)
17. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 16)
18. Flee (PR: 13)
19. The Humans (PR: 18)
20. Blue Bayou (PR: 19)
21. The Last Duel (PR: 21)
22. The Worst Person in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
24. In the Heights (PR: 23)
25. Annette (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
Dear Evan Hansen
Last Night in Soho
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2)
4. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 7)
8. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10)
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. Fran Kranz, Mass (PR: 11)
11. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 14)
12. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 8)
13. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 12)
14. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 15)
15. Joe Wright, Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3)
3. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2)
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 4)
5. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 7)
7. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 8)
8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
9. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 12)
11. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 11)
12. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 13)
13. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9)
14. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 15)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 14)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10)
7. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 6)
8. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 8)
9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 11)
11. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 7)
12. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 13)
13. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 15)
14. Michael B. Jordan, A Journal for Jordan (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 2)
3. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 4)
4. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 5)
5. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
7. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 6)
8. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Olga Merediz, In the Heights (PR: 7)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog (PR: 9)
11. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 13)
12. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 11)
13. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 14)
15. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Regina King, The Harder They Fall
Sally Hawkins, Spencer
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 3)
4. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 4)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6)
7. Richard E. Grant, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie (PR: 7)
8. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall (PR: 5)
9. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Reed Birney, Mass (PR: 9)
11. Bradley Whitford, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Ben Mendelsohn, Cyrano (PR: 10)
13. Adam Driver, The Last Duel (PR: 12)
14. Simon Helberg, Annette (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Brendan Gleeson, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Al Pacino, House of Gucci
David Alvarez, West Side Story
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soggy Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mass (PR: 1)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4)
5. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 8)
7. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10)
8. Spencer (PR: 7)
9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 9)
11. Blue Bayou (PR: 5)
12. Belfast (PR: 6)
13. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. King Richard (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted Screenplay)
Looking back on my Godzilla review from 2014, I spoke of how it felt like a party where the main character (that would be the fire breathing title one) wasn’t invited until halfway through. You expected Godzilla to be there the whole time. That left a level of disappointment, but the Gareth Edwards reboot of the franchise was worth the wait in the end. The sequel Godzilla: King of the Monsters RSVP’s the main attraction early on and he brings some familiar friends to the shindig. That doesn’t make the party better.
Michael Dougherty takes over directorial duties in a follow-up that feels bigger with its sprawling cast and action sequences. It also feels more cluttered and more like a prelude to what’s coming next in the MonsterVerse (Godzilla vs. Kong). That’s not an issue shared by 2014’s predecessor. Monsters picks up five years after the events of Godzilla when the creature managed to save the world and leave some collateral damage. That includes the young son of biologist Dr. Emma Russell (Vera Farmiga) and animal behavioralist Mark (Kyle Chandler). The parents have reacted differently and separately from the tragedy. Dr. Emma still believes in Godzilla’s global saving abilities, but in a dangerous way that teams her with an ecoterrorist (Charles Dance). Mark’s grief is directed toward Godzilla. Daughter Madison (Millie Bobby Brown) is caught in the middle.
The family drama pits the estranged couple on opposites ends of the battle. More monsters are awoken from their slumber in various Monarch stations to wreak havoc. It results in the destruction of monuments in quite familiar Independence Day/Transformers style fashion. Toho stalwarts Rodan, Mothra, and King Ghidorah are the aforementioned party dwellers joining the fray. The big fights are shot in destinations where the forecast is either a downpour or so dark that it’s often frustratingly hard to tell what is happening.
In addition to the Russell family, lots of recognizable actors are left to mostly stand and gawk at the monstrous activity. The film does have the distinction of adding another performer to the trifecta of prominent N.W.A. members (speaking of monster verses!) from Straight Outta Compton. In Kong: Skull Island, we had Eazy-E (Jason Mitchell) and Dr. Dre (Corey Hawkins). Now we have O’Shea Jackson Jr. (who played his dad Ice Cube in Compton) as a soldier. David Strathairn, Sally Hawkins, and Ken Watanabe reprise their 2014 roles while Bradley Whitford, Thomas Middleditch, and Zhang Ziyi are fresh gawkers. There’s not really a human performance to highlight. Just as Bryan Cranston earned some rightful criticism for his wild overacting in Godzilla, here we have Kyle Chandler often speaking in an intense and earnest hoarse whisper that is perhaps more annoying.
There’s a brief middle section where Godzilla is given a unique wakeup call. It transpires underwater where we discover the iconic radioactive creature’s original habitat. I found this to be the most well-constructed and engaging sequence. It hints at ancient stories that would probably be cool to explore. This doesn’t last long and before we know it, we are back to the dimly lit and rain soaked above ground CG brawls. They’re occasionally fun, but they will fall straight outta mind in short order. Maybe King Kong getting in on this will brighten things up.
Today’s Daily Streaming Guide brings us a must watch for horror fans who like a little comedy and irreverence spliced in!
2012’s The Cabin in the Woods is streaming on Hulu. What begins as a seemingly run-of-the-mill scary pic about college students being terrorized in a cabin takes all kinds of unexpected and often humorous turns. The film is cowritten by Joss Whedon and a month after its release, he struck box office gold with the first Avengers. This is directed by his colleague Drew Goddard (making his debut) with a cast includes Thor himself Chris Hemsworth, Richard Jenkins and Bradley Whitford doing sublime work, and genre legend Sigourney Weaver in a small yet pivotal role.
Cabin wasn’t a big hit at the multiplexes, but it’s deservedly achieved cult status since. I find it to be one of the wildly entertaining flicks of its kind in recent times.
Harrison Ford and a furry friend that isn’t Chewbacca team up for The Call of the Wild next weekend. Based on Jack London’s 1903 adventure book, the wilderness tale pairing Ford with canine pal Buck comes from director Chris Sanders. It’s his live-action debut, but he’s had success making animated features including The Croods and How to Train Your Dragon. Costars include Dan Stevens, Omar Sy, Karen Gillan, and Bradley Whitford.
Coming from the newly named 20th Century Studios (now owned by Disney), Wild is a rather large gamble. The price tag reportedly tops $100 million and that’s steep considering the source material may not be as familiar to some of the young audience it is counting on. To add to that, Sonic the Hedgehog will be in its sophomore frame and that could cut into the crowd.
Older viewers turning out for Ford and the short novel it’s based on could potentially get this to top of its range ($20 million). Yet my feeling is low to mid teens is most likely.
The Call of the Wild opening weekend prediction: $14.6 million
Continuing its own cinematic universe that will lead to two monstrous creatures facing off next spring, Godzilla: KingoftheMonsters stomps into multiplexes next weekend. The reported $200 million dollar film is a sequel to 2014’s Godzilla reboot from Gareth Edwards. Michael Dougherty takes over directorial duties with a cast including Kyle Chandler, Vera Farmiga, Millie Bobby Brown of “Stranger Things” fame, Bradley Whitford, Charles Dance, Thomas Middleditch, and O’Shea Jackson Jr. Returnees from part one are Sally Hawkins, David Strathairn, and Ken Watanabe.
As mentioned, Monsters is part of a larger Warner Bros scheme to get the giant green nuclear waste creation to grapple with the world’s best known giant ape. Godzillavs. Kong will hit screens in March of 2020. Five summers ago, Godzilla debuted to a cool $91 million on its way to $200 million domestically. In 2017, Kong: SkullIsland made $61 million out of the gate and $168 million total.
I would anticipate we’ll see Kong money and not Godzilla cash here and perhaps a bit less. Mid to high 50s seems probable with overseas earnings expected to be anything but toxic.
Godzilla: KingoftheMonsters opening weekend prediction: $58.7 million
Going into the Telluride Film Festival, one storyline was the possibility of Nicole Kidman garnering Oscar buzz for two roles. In the Supporting realm, her part in BoyErased seemed like a somewhat safe bet for attention. That film’s mixed reaction has brought her inclusion in that race as more of a question mark.
When it comes to lead Actress, Kidman stars in the crime thriller Destroyer from director Karyn Kusama. Reaction from Colorado on the picture itself is also mixed. Some reviews have compared it to the work of Michael Mann while others have criticized its confusing storyline. Yet everyone seems to agree that Kidman is terrific in an unglamorous role.
Expect Annapurna Pictures to focus all of its Academy campaign on the four-time nominee and one time winner (for 2002’s TheHours). Don’t expect much chatter for the Picture, Director, or costars Sebastian Stan, Tatiana Maslany, Toby Kebbell, and Bradley Whitford.
Bottom line: the BoyErased reaction lessens Kidman’s chances at a nod in Supporting Actress. The buzz about her performance in Destroyer bolsters her shot at lead.
The film opens domestically on Christmas. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
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