And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days.
It begins with Supporting Actor. When I gave you my first picks in 2024, it yielded one eventual nominee. That happened to be the winner with Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. Under the 10 other possibilities, I correctly called another contender in Culkin’s Succession costar Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice). Yura Borisov (Anora), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), and Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) were not identified at this early juncture.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor. And there will be movies were not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.
This premiere post projects that Colman Domingo will earn his third nod in as many years after lead actor attempts for Rustin and Sing Sing as troubled Jackson family patriarch Joseph in Michael. We could also see Star Wars legend Mark Hamill nab a slot for Toronto Film Festival Audience winner The Life of Chuck and Adam Sandler see his first recognition for Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly.
Here’s the first snapshot with Supporting Actress up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
These are last Oscar predictions in calendar year 2024 and I’ll likely do the final forecast on Tuesday, January 14th before the nominations are revealed on Friday, January 17th. It got me wondering how accurate my projections were for the 96th Academy Awards covering 2023 at this point in the calendar. Turns out… I did a post on December 29th of last year. The results? That’s what I’ll focus on in this write-up while giving you my predictions for the next broadcast.
The quick version is that my December 29th, 2023 forecast yielded 79 of the eventual 105 nominees. That’s not far off from my eventual tally of 84 of 105 when the announcements were made in January 2024. This includes 10 for 10 (!) in Best Picture and 5 for 5 in Makeup & Hairstyling. I went 4 for 5 in 10 other competitions while getting 3 for 5 in eight other competitions. There wasn’t one category where I didn’t have the winner listed as a nominee… except for in Visual Effects (we’ll get to that at the bottom).
Let’s get to it with some chatter about my performance in the previous year to use a potential context for what’s to come.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)
13. September 5 (PR: 12) (-1)
14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
10 for 10 on the Best Picture nominees and that includes listing eventual victor Oppenheimer at #1.
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jon M. Chu, Wicked
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5 and I correctly had Christopher Nolan’s direction of Oppenheimer listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Greta Gerwig (Barbie) in over Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), who was listed in 8th position.
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2.Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Eventual winner Emma Stone (Poor Things) was listed in 2nd after Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). I incorrectly had Greta Lee (Past Lives) nominated over Annette Bening (Nyad), who I had listed in ninth.
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. I had the winner Cillian Murphy of Oppenheimer listed second after Bradley Cooper from Maestro. Where I went wrong – I had Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) nominated over my #6 Colman Domingo (Rustin).
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Joan Chen, Dídi
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. I correctly had Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – Julianne Moore (May December) and Rachel McAdams (Are You ThereGod? It’s Me, Margaret) in over Jodie Foster for Nyad (who I had in sixth) and America Ferrera in Barbie (who was 8th at that time).
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29 –
4 for 5. I correctly had Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) listed in first. Where I went wrong – I had Charles Melton (May December) being nominated over #7 Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction.
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)
8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner The Holdovers was listed 2nd while I had Barbie ranked 1st. It would be moved into Adapted Screenplay shortly thereafter. Where I went wrong – listing Barbie instead of #7 Maestro.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (-1)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. Per above, I had Barbie listed in Original instead of Adapted at that time. Winner American Fiction was slotted fourth. Where I went wrong – having Killers of the Flower Moon and All of Us Strangers instead of Barbie and #6 The Zone of Interest.
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Universal Language (PR: 9) (+2)
8. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Flow (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-4)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. The Zone of Interest was correctly listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – The Taste of Things was predicted over #9 lo capitano.
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner The Boy and the Heron was listed in 2nd. Where I went wrong – predicting The Peasants over #10 Robot Dreams.
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Daughters (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-1)
8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. 20 Days in Mariupol was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – Beyond Utopia and American Symphony were predicted over #9 Bobi Wine: The People’s President and unranked To Kill a Tiger.
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Anora
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest nominated over #10 El Conde.
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed in 2nd (behind Barbie). Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)
7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Challengers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Air and Barbie nominated over #6 The Holdovers and #8 Anatomy of a Fall.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
5 for 5! Winner Poor Things was listed second behind Maestro.
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Challengers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest and The Boy and the Heron nominated over #10 American Fiction and the unranked Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie was correctly in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had “Road to Freedom” from Rustin and “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple nominated over #6 “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony and #9 “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)
9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed 2nd behind Barbie. Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)
7. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. I had winner The Zone of Interest listed fourth. Where I went wrong – Ferrari and Napoleon being nominated over #8 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 The Creator.
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wicked (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)
7. Better Man (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. My #4 Godzilla Minus One won. Where I went wrong – this is the one category where my #1 (Poor Things) ended up not getting nominated. That’s in addition to having Society of the Snow getting in. #7 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 Napoleon made the cut instead.
Whew. And that leaves the following pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
8 Nominations
Conclave
7 Nominations
Wicked
5 Nominations
Anora, The Substance
4 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys
2 Nominations
The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Lionsgate Films is currently reeling from Borderlands performing a box office belly flop. On August 23rd, they hope The Crow reboot flies higher with moviegoers. Bill Skarsgård trades in the Pennywise makeup for the comic book based vigilante hero first made famous onscreen 30 years ago by Brandon Lee (who was killed in an onset tragedy during filming). Costars include FKA Twigs, Danny Huston, and Josette Simon. Rupert Sanders, who was behind the camera on Snow White and the Huntsman and Ghost in the Shell, directs.
While this is the fifth feature in the franchise, it is the first in nearly 20 years. Fun fact: Skarsgård is the fifth actor to play the title role following Lee, Vincent Perez, Eric Mabius, and Edward Furlong. The last two entries from 2000 and 2005 experienced limited theatrical runs before going the direct-to-video route.
1994’s original gained plenty of notoriety due to the death of its lead. It also struck a chord with youth culture and was assisted by a hit soundtrack. Fans of that picture are three decades older and probably have little interest in this long-in-development project which at times had Bradley Cooper, Jason Momoa, and others attached.
The marketing campaign seems muted. General brand recognition could get this to $10 million, but it may fall a bit under that. That’s not much to crow about considering the reported $50 million budget.
After massive box office success with the two A Quiet Place horror pics, John Krasinski is in family mode when IF debuts Friday. Combining live-action with animation, Ryan Reynolds headlines the human cast with a ginormous list of familiar faces voicing imaginary friends from Steve Carell to Emily Blunt to George Clooney to Matt Damon and Bradley Cooper and many more.
The review embargo is up and reaction is mixed. With a 59% RT score, any awards prospects are shaky. The one exception could be Visual Effects, but I don’t even think it’s guaranteed to make the shortlist (let alone the final five). In other words, putting this anywhere in your Academy forecast represents a big… well, you know. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Paramount is banking on John Krasinski’s latest directorial project to make lots of noise at multiplexes when IF debuts on May 17th. Mixing live-action with animation, the comedy’s real-life cast consists of Ryan Reynolds, Cailey Fleming, Fiona Shaw, Alan Kim, Liza Colón-Zayas, Bobby Moynihan, and Krasinski himself. The sprawling list of performers providing voiceover work includes the filmmaker’s Office costar Steve Carell, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Krasinski’s spouse Emily Blunt, the late Louis Gossett Jr., Matt Damon, Maya Rudolph, Jon Stewart, Sam Rockwell, Sebastian Maniscalco, Christopher Meloni, Richard Jenkins, Awkwafina, Blake Lively, George Clooney, Matthew Rhys, Bradley Cooper, Amy Schumer, Keegan-Michael Key, and Vince Vaughn.
Handling screenplay duties as well, this is a far cry from the director’s A Quiet Place pics. The summer’s first feature geared toward families, this should capitalize on the absence of genre material in the marketplace (it’s been two months since Kung Fu Panda 4). The title, by the way, stands for Imaginary Friend.
The chance for this to rise above expectations seems real. I think it could make $50 million for starters. It could also start out slowly and hope for decent legs in subsequent weekends. A worst case scenario could be $25-30 million. I’m giving it $35-40 million out of the gate.
IF opening weekend prediction: $38.3 million
For my The Strangers: Chapter 1 prediction, click here:
From Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett (the filmmakers known as Radio Silence), Abigail sautés between a crime thriller and vampire tale. It doesn’t completely land that From Dusk til Dawn style jump off and it overstays its welcome. There are lively breaks in the gory repetition and that’s thanks to some quality casting.
The title character is a young girl (played by Alisha Weir) who we first see practicing her ballet moves in an empty theater. She’s being tailed by six criminals engaged in a snatching plot. They succeed in the abduction, at least theoretically. The mastermind behind the taking (Giancarlo Esposito) provides a creepy old house for them to hold Abigail for 24 hours until the ransom is met. The operation has a strict no real names policy (think Reservoir Dogs), so the group is named after Rat Packers. Melissa Barrera is Joey and she’s tasked with being Abigail’s sole point of contact. We quickly figure out she kidnaps with kindness and is our heroine. She also has a drug problem and might’ve abandoned her son, but she’s rather virtuous compared to the lot.
That includes former detective Frank (Dan Stevens, clearly having a ball and looking a bit like Bradley Cooper), spoiled brat and computer hacker Sammy (Kathryn Newton), and demented getaway driver Dean (Angus Cloud). Low IQ muscleman Peter (Kevin Durand) and Marine Rickles (Will Catlett) complete the sextet.
The young captor doesn’t waste much time engaging in mind games with the unwelcome house guests. In what might have been a juicy twist if the trailer and ads hadn’t clearly spelled it out, she’s a bloodsucker who has been around much longer than her appearance suggests. As if that weren’t enough, she has a father whose name sends chills down the spine of those who hear it.
Abigail should be more of a guilty pleasure than it is. There are times when it flourishes. Stevens steals the show while Barrera is saddled with a semi-serious and boring backstory. Some of the exaggerated violence is reminiscent of Radio Silence’s Ready or Not from 2019. That can be a good thing though it’s a reminder that the pic five years ago was superior. Alisha Weir’s performance is certainly a plus as she switches up the cadence of a preteen and a centuries old devourer of souls.
Despite some clever moves, this ultimately stalls in the third act and takes a while to ramp up in the first place. Its bucket of blood falls on the half empty side a little too often.
And here we go! We are about four weeks removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the supporting derbies and they can be perused here:
We now move to Actor. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded two nominees: winner Cillian Murphy as Oppenheimer and Bradley Cooper in Maestro. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Colman Domingo in Rustin and Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers I did not identify Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) at the early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned for in supporting actor.
My first projections give Colman Domingo a second shot in a row in this competition. Cillian Murphy could be back as well. They also open up the possibility of Joaquin Phoenix’s return as Joker giving him another statue in the role. In 2023, I listed Kingsley Ben-Adir in Bob Marley: One Love as one of my predicted quintet. Now he’s an Other Possibility (and a somewhat remote one at that).
Here’s the first snapshot:
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS
After scores of Oscar Prediction posts, 35 Case Of write-ups making the argument for and against winners in BP, Director, and the four acting derbies, and numerous articles covering the key precursors – we have arrived at my final winner predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. The ceremony airs Sunday night with Jimmy Kimmel back hosting (remember: it starts an hour earlier than normal at 7PM EST).
Truth be told, some of the major races come with little to zero suspense and you’ll read about that below. On the other hand, there are a handful of competitions that are quite unpredictable with the most visible being Best Actress.
As I do each year, I’ll give you the nominees, brief analysis, and a winner and runner-up pick for all the feature-length categories. Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Let’s keep this simple. Oppenheimer is the easiest BP selection to predict in quite some time and there’s been some obvious ones recently (including Everything Everywhere All at Once last year). It has taken all the precursors it needs to including the Globes, BAFTA, SAG and Critics Choice. Frankly, the more difficult call is runner-up (and it doesn’t really matter). I’ll go with Poor Things since it had the second most noms and showed up in all the major races where it was expected to contend.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
You could literally copy and paste everything about Picture for Director with the man who made Oppenheimer and throw in the fact that he took DGA as well. Another no brainer.
Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (I guess)
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
And now it gets complicated. Of the four acting races, this is by far the hardest one. Why? It appears to be a coin flip between Stone and Gladstone. They split the Golden Globes as anticipated. Stone received BAFTA and Critics Choice and appeared to be out front. And then Gladstone swooped in for SAG. That recency factor could serve as a boost. Additionally, Gladstone’s victory would be historic. For Stone, it would be her second statue in seven years after her La La Land prize. Stone could absolutely make the podium trip and it wouldn’t be unexpected at all. Yet for the reasons above…
Prediction: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Poor Things
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Best Actor also looked like a pick ’em for a bit between Murphy and Giamatti. They split the Globes and then Giamatti was your Critics Choice choice. Murphy, however, regained momentum with BAFTA and SAG. A Giamatti win could occur, but it seems unlikelier now.
Prediction: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
There was some thought that this race could become interesting at some point with an Emily Blunt upset at SAG or maybe even Brooks scoring a shocking victory. It never happened and Randolph has emerged everywhere. This is one of the easiest categories to call.
Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
This quintet of performers all come from BP nominees, but the winner will be from the BP recipient. Downey Jr. has swept this season thus far and that’ll continue.
Prediction: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives
You’ll notice a common theme with both Screenplay derbies. It looked like each would difficult to figure out, but precursors have had consistency. In Original, that’s been Anatomy of a Fall and this should mark its sole Oscar since France inexplicably didn’t make it their International Feature Film submission.
Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
There is a little more intrigue here with Barbie in the mix and a potential Oppenheimer juggernaut being rewarded even here. That said, Fiction kept racking up precursors and I can’t bet against it for its solo prize.
Prediction: American Fiction
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Zone of Interest
As mentioned, with Anatomy left out, this becomes easy. Zone is the only BP nominee listed in this group.
Prediction: The Zone of Interest
Runner-Up: Society of the Snow
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
We’ve got real drama here as Heron took the Globe and BAFTA while Spidey is the Annie and Critics Choice selection. I’m leaning toward the latter, but Heron could fly away with the minor upset.
Prediction: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
Doc Feature can be a head scratcher from time to time and I’m tempted to go with Daughters or even something else to shake it up. Mariupol, though, has collected the bulk of notable precursors. It’s the safe pick.
Prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol
Runner-Up: Four Daughters
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Sometimes brevity is appreciated. There are some of these tech races where Oppenheimer is way out front. This would be one.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Here’s one where Oppenheimer isn’t really expected to win. Instead, like Production Design, this should be between Barbie and Poor Things and it’s 50/50 in my view. I have a strange feeling that Barbie will win more than 1 Oscar (there’s one coming below where it’s basically a slam dunk). This could mark that second trophy.
Prediction: Barbie
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST FILM EDITING
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
A very easy call for Oppenheimer.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Anatomy of a Fall
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow
Poor Things is a genuine threat, but I’ll say this is Maestro‘s only victory.
Prediction: Maestro
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
It is Oppenheimer‘s destiny to take this one.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot; “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie; “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony; “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon; “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Here’s where Barbie is the safe pick with either tune. “Ken” nabbed a Critics Choice prize, but Billie Eilish’s ballad scored at the Globes and Grammys.
Prediction: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Per Costume Design, a showdown between Barbie and Bella of Poor Things. Unlike Costume Design, my coin is flipped to Poor Things for what I’m projecting is its only Academy Award.
Prediction: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Barbie
BEST SOUND
Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
This looked like a no thinking pick for Oppenheimer until Zone managed the BAFTA. I could see that repeating, but I’m not confident enough to bet against Oppenheimer.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interst
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon
Along with Actress, this is where I’ve struggled the most. VE is kinda wild this year with Oppenheimer not listed (it won Critics Choice), Dune: Part Two having been pushed to 2024, and Poor Things (which won BAFTA) not in the quintet. So… your guess is as good as mine. I’m really tempted to go with Godzilla. Guardians and Napoleon are possible (I really don’t see Mission as the pick). Yet I’ll say The Creator edges them out as it just took some Visual Effects Society awards. Confidence level? Nada.
Prediction: The Creator
Runner-Up: Godzilla Minus One
That means I’m speculating that every BP nominee except Past Lives will win an Oscar… and that Barbie is the only other picture with more than one trophy other than Oppenheimer.
Here’s the projected breakdown for victories:
8 Wins
Oppenheimer
2 Wins
Barbie
1 Win
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Creator, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon,Maestro, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, 20 Days in Mariupol, The Zone of Interest
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with how I did and general takeaways…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our fourth performer in Best Actress and that’s Carey Mulligan in Maestro. Let’s get to it!
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
An Education (2009, Actress); Promising Young Woman (2020, Actress)
The Case for Carey Mulligan:
After likely coming up just a little short to Frances McDormand (Nomadland) in 2020 for PromisingYoungWoman, Mulligan has made the cut at key precursors with the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and SAG. As Leonard Bernstein’s spouse Felicia, she has a number of Oscar clips to choose from alongside costar Bradley Cooper.
The Case Against Carey Mulligan:
So do Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) and they’ve taken the hardware in ceremonies that have already occurred.
The Verdict:
The third time won’t be the charm for Mulligan.
My Case Of posts will continue with Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer…
The 30th SAG Awards air this Saturday and they are rightly viewed as an often reliable barometer for the Oscars, especially in the acting derbies. The biggest prize honors the strongest ensemble and that’s a less reliable match with Best Picture. Over the past 10 ceremonies, the correlation has been 5 out of 10 and that includes the last two shows with CODA and Everything Everywhere All at Once.
On the other hand, it was four for four in Actress, Actor, and the supporting competitions last year. That also holds true for 2021.
Sunday’s program could solidify frontrunner statuses for Actress/Actor hopefuls and further potential sweeps for the supporting players. Let’s walk through all 6 categories with a winner and runner-up selection.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
You have to go back to the second SAG Awards and The Birdcage to find a nominee that wasn’t an Oscar BP nominee so you can cross The Color Purple out immediately. My hunch is this comes down to Barbenheimer. We know that Oppenheimer is the overwhelming favorite for the Academy’s BP. However, Barbie could legitimately pick this up. This is a close call and I wouldn’t totally rule out Fiction. Yet the fact is that Oppenheimer might be strong enough to nab this one in addition to all the other precursors.
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Barbie
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
This is where Gladstone could make the Oscar race a nail biter. Stone has taken Critics Choice and BAFTA. If she gets the victory at SAG, she’ll become the easy favorite. Arguably a coin flip, but I’m sensing Stone gets it.
Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Runner-Up: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Read what I said about Female Actor in a Leading Role. In this race, Cillian Murphy is Emma Stone. Paul Giamatti is Lily Gladstone (except Giamatti took Critics Choice). Murphy could achieve frontrunner status or Giamatti could make it a jump ball. I’m projecting the latter.
Predicted Winner: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Penélope Cruz (Ferrari), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Randolph has been the victor everywhere important and I don’t see SAG interrupting her sweep.
Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Read what I said about Female Actor in a Supporting Role. Robert Downey Jr. is Da’Vine Joy Randolph.
Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick: Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
The sequel heavy lineup marks the first nomination for a John Wick pic. Some prognosticators are going with it, but I’m forecasting the Mission series (in its third try) pulls through.
Predicted Winner: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 