We move forward into the Top Ten with numbers 10-6 before my final installment tomorrow revealing the top five.
Let’s get to it!
10. Ted 2
Release Date: June 26
Seth MacFarlane’s Ted was the comedic hit of summer 2012 with its foul talking teddy bear. Mark Wahlberg is back, though Mila Kunis is out with Amanda Seyfried in. Comedy sequels are a risky proposition, but let’s hope MacFarlane can recapture the magic he made three years ago (and couldn’t duplicate with last summer’s mediocre A Million Ways to Die in the West).
9. Straight Outta Compton
Release Date: August 14
F. Gary Gray, the man responsible for several music videos featuring the film’s subjects as well as Friday and The Italian Job, directs the musical bio of NWA – the highly influential gangsta rap group that included Dr. Dre, Ice Cube, and Eazy-E. Dre and Cube serve as producers.
8. Trainwreck
Release Date: July 17
Judd Apatow had a one two punch of comedy classics with 2005’s The 40 Year Old Virgin and 2007’s Knocked Up. His follow-ups, Funny People and This is 40, were just OK. Trainwreck is said to be a return to form based on word of mouth, with comedian Amy Schumer primed for a breakout starring role. Bill Hader and Lebron James (!) co-star.
7. Ant-Man
Release Date: July 17
The last time Marvel Studios had a feature thought to be outside the box and risky, it was last summer’s Guardians of the Galaxy and it turned out to be the season’s biggest hit. This studio knows what they’re doing and here we have Paul Rudd playing the title character with Michael Douglas and Evangeline Lilly in supporting roles.
6. Aloha
Release Date: May 29
For the past decade, Cameron Crowe’s filmography has been unimpressive with Elizabethtown and We Bought a Zoo. Let us not forget, though, that this is the man that brought us Say Anything, Jerry Maguire, and Almost Famous. Crowe’s latest is a romantic comedy with a truly impressive cast – Bradley Cooper (hot off American Sniper), Emma Stone, Bill Murray, Rachel McAdams, Alec Baldwin, and Danny McBride.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Top five coming at you tomorrow…
We are officially ten days away from Neil Patrick Harris hosting the Oscars and it seems like a perfect time to chime in with an update on what and who I believe will win in the eight major categories. Next weekend – I’ll provide final predictions in all of the races. Here we go:
BEST PICTURE
Of the eight movies nominated here, it now appears only two have a legit shot at becoming 2014’s Best Picture: Richard Linklater’s Boyhood and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Birdman. The momentum still appears to be on the side of Linklater’s 12 years in the making family drama.
Predicted Winner: Boyhood
Runner-Up: Birdman
Other Nominees: American Sniper, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash
BEST DIRECTOR
Like the Picture race, it’s between Linklater and Inarritu. This practically seems like a coin flip at this point, but I’ll give the Birdman maker the slight edge since he just won the Director’s Guild of America award (often a solid predictor of who wins here).
Other Nominees: Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
BEST ACTOR
While Michael Keaton remains the front runner for his Birdman comeback, don’t sleep on the chances of Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything, especially following his somewhat surprising SAG Awards victory. I’m still clinging to Keaton winning though.
Predicted Winner: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Runner-Up: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Other Nominees: Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
BEST ACTRESS
Julianne Moore’s work in Still Alice is widely expected to nab the celebrated actress her first golden statue. Any other winner here would be a rather big surprise.
Predicted Winner: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Runner-Up: Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Other Nominees: Marion Cotillard (Two Days One Night), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Another easy race to predict as J.K. Simmons’ turn as the sadistic music teacher in Whiplash has won essentially all precursors. Only a Birdman sweep could mean Edward Norton is victorious and that’s a long shot.
Predicted Winner: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, Birdman
Other Nominees: Robert Duvall (The Judge), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Like the two previous acting categories, Patricia Arquette’s Boyhood performance has scored at other awards shows and anyone but her winning would be a massive upset.
Predicted Winner: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Birdman
Other Nominees Laura Dern (Wild), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This is one heckuva category but again should come down to Birdman and Boyhood. Like in the Director race, Birdman gets a small edge. Watch out for Budapest as a potential spoiler.
Predicted Winner: Birdman
Runner-Up: Boyhood
Other Nominees: Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
This would appear to be the best chance for The Imitation Game to win a major award, but Theory of Everything may be hot on its heels.
Predicted Winner: The Imitation Game
Runner-Up: The Theory of Everything
Other Nominees: American Sniper, Inherent Vice, Whiplash
And that’ll do it. Keep an eye out for final predictions next weekend!
The reign of American Sniper is likely to end this first full weekend of February as three new titles debut: animated sequel The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, sci-fi epic Jupiter Ascending, and fantasy pic Seventh Son. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I believe it will be SpongeBob and not Jupiter that will knock Bradley Cooper’s Oscar nominated war pic from its #1 perch, though it could be close. That would leave Sniper dropping to third with Seventh Son debuting fourth and Paddington rounding out the top five.
And with that, a top five predictions for the weekend:
1. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water
Predicted Gross: $27.8 million
2. Jupiter Ascending
Predicted Gross: $20.9 million
3. American Sniper
Predicted Gross: $17.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)
4. Seventh Son
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
5. Paddington
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)
Box Office Results (January 30-February 1)
Bad weather and the Super Bowl truly did have an effect on the box office this weekend as nearly all titles couldn’t quite match my predictions. As anticipated, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper led the charts for the third week in a row. Yet it dropped much further than my estimate with $30.6 million (I said $42.1M). Regardless it’s made $247M at press time.
With a wholly unimpressive second place debut was Project Almanac, the critically drubbed found footage pic which managed just $8.3 million (far below my $16.4M estimate). With little positive buzz and no recognizable stars, audiences simply chose to ignore it.
Paddington was third with $8.2 million, in line with my $7.7M projection. The bear tale has taken in $50M so far.
The Kevin Costner interracial drama managed an OK start with $6.2 million for fourth, just above my $5.6M prediction.
Jennifer Lopez’s thriller The Boy Next Door dipped from second to fifth with a hefty sophomore drop to $6 million, below my $7.5M projection. The total stands at $24M.
The Wedding Ringer was sixth with $5.6 million (I said $6.7M) and it has made $48M. Oscar nominee The Imitation Game took seventh with $5 million (I predicted $6M) and its impressive total is at $67M.
New thriller The Loft tanked with only $2.7 million – making my $4.8M opening prediction seem way generous. The long delayed pic opened tenth. Same goes for critically acclaimed but Academy ignored A Most Violent Year which made just $1.5 million in its expansion or not even half of my $3.4M projection.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Silence and noise. Both are used in tremendously effective and emotional ways in Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper. The noise of war which we’ve heard again and again in movies. Yet the silence of it too. The quiet thoughts and solemnity of its central character with his finger on the trigger having to make snap judgments most of us couldn’t fathom. The noise of everyday life and your children playing and wife speaking to you. Yet those noises are silenced by other noises. The sound of war whose echoes never fully leave the mind of Chris Kyle.
American Sniper is the true life tale of the Navy Seal credited with having the most kills in our 21st century Middle East conflict. Bradley Cooper is Chris, who was raised with a sense of duty with an emphasis on protecting others. When the United States comes under attack, Chris’s protective instincts find their calling. He eventually does four tours overseas and becomes a near mythic figure for his abilities behind a rifle.
His incredible talents in his military life trump his capacity to manage a family life. In between tours, he has trouble adjusting to normal life with his wife Taya (Sienna Miller) and his kids. Chris is distant. His mind is with his fellow soldiers. Even after saving so many of them, Chris doesn’t think in those terms. When he’s back in Texas, there is the fact that Chris can’t save them. Going home to him does not hold the same meaning it would to many. Home is on top of a roof in Iraq watching over his men.
The picture has an understated tone that we’ve come to anticipate from director Eastwood. One looking for deep political overtones won’t find them. While we may know Clint’s politics, they’re not on display here. This is a character study and its matter of factness extends to the war scenes. The decisions Chris must face include whether to kill women and children. There are times here when it’s almost too intense to watch, but it’s a necessity to understand Chris’s psyche.
Bradley Cooper is a revelation here. First known as a comedic actor, this and Silver Linings Playbook especially have shown him to be one of the most powerful dramatic actors on screen. His physical transformation and southern accent are remarkable, but it wouldn’t mean much without his emotional wallop of an acting job. There are subtleties in his take on Chris and his responses to those praising his legendary prowess on the battlefield that are moving and sometimes devastating. As is his realization that his time in foreign countries should end.
Military service and dedication to his comrades doesn’t end with active duty for Chris. His final act in this world involves helping another soldier. It ends in a horrifically tragic way. Chris wouldn’t have had it any other way. Helping other soldiers is what he does and is his duty.
The Oscar nominations for the 2014 movie year were released this morning. As readers of the blog know, I made my final predictions yesterday evening in the eight major categories. So how did I do?
Well… not too shabby as I see it. Of the 44 nominations predicted, I correctly got 38 which equates to 86% overall and perfect scores in three of the races. Let’s take a look at the categories one by one and, for the first time, I’ll offer my initial thoughts on what and who will win:
BEST PICTURE
As mentioned last night, I finally got on the Nightcrawler bandwagon. Frankly, I should have been thinking more about the American Sniper bandwagon. It’s the only movie that received a nod that I didn’t predict. There were eight nominees instead of my estimated nine, which meant my Foxcatcher and Nightcrawler calls were left off. So overall – 7 out of 9 on Best Picture.
Nominees
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
This appears to be a three film race between Boyhood, Birdman, and The Imitation Game with Boyhood appearing to have the edge. Selma was once thought to be in that mix, but today’s lack of nods in other categories render its chances virtually non-existent.
Current Predicted Winner: Boyhood
BEST DIRECTOR
Went 4 out of 5 here. Bennett Miller’s nomination for Foxcatcher was only surprising because the picture itself wasn’t recognized. I included Ana DuVernay for Selma yet her exclusion isn’t that shocking since Selma has been losing steam.
Nominees
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
For the last two years, Oscar has split their Picture and Director winners. I could easily see a scenario where Boyhood takes top prize with Inarritu’s virtuoso work in Birdman victorious in this category. This is a tough call, but for now I’ll go with Linklater’s heralded and long gestating accomplishment in Boyhood.
Predicted Winner: Linklater
BEST ACTOR
4 for 5 again. This race had turned into a seven man showdown and two were going to be left out. They were David Oyelowo in Selma (who I predicted wouldn’t be nominated) and Jake Gyllenhall in Nightcrawler (I predicted he would). The Sniper love meant Bradley Cooper picked up his third consecutive nomination and he’s the one I left out.
Nominees
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
We’ll keep this short and sweet. Cumberbatch or Redmayne could spoil, but this is Keaton’s race to lose.
Predicted Winner: Keaton
BEST ACTRESS
5 for 5 here! I’ll pat myself on the back for including Marion Cotillard’s “surprise” nom for Two Days One Night. Some were surprised at Jennifer Aniston’s exclusion for Cake, but the film was so small and reviews so not solid that I wasn’t.
Nominees
Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Like the Best Actor race, we have a big front runner here and it’s Moore (a celebrated and often nominated actress who’s never won). It’s simply hard to imagine any of the other four topping her.
Predicted Winner: Moore
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
5 for 5 again!! Not much to add here as these five actors were the expected nominees and that’s how it panned out.
Nominees
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
I’m starting to sound like a broken record, but again there’s a major front runner. J.K. Simmons has won most of the precursors. Only an extremely good night for Birdman and a Norton upset seems plausible… but not that plausible.
Predicted Winner: Simmons
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
4 for 5 here as Laura Dern’s work in Wild (which I’d predicted previously but took her off) was included and Jessica Chastain’s in A Most Violent Year was excluded.
Nominees
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
The broken record continues as Stone could reap the benefit of a Birdman love fest. However, Arquette seems to be in a solid position for gold.
Predicted Winner: Arquette
Best Original Screenplay
Perfection again – 5 for 5!!! ‘Nuff said…
Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
This would appear to be the race where Birdman has an ever so slight edge over Boyhood. If there’s a spoiler, it could be Grand Budapest.
Predicted Winner: Birdman
Best Adapted Screenplay
4 for 5. The American Sniper props continued as I didn’t include it. That meant Gillian Flynn’s adaptation of her book Gone Girl was left off… which was a bit of a surprise.
Nominees
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Here, The Imitation Game seems the most likely to win and it’ll likely represent its only victory in the main races.
Predicted Winner: The Imitation Game
As for surprises in the down ticket categories, there were a couple of big ones. In the Animated Feature category, The LEGO Movie was seen to many as a potential winner and it wasn’t even nominated. In the Documentary race, the Roger Ebert pic Life Itself was shockingly left out.
Please note that my current winner predictions are not my final ones and I will have a post up the weekend before the ceremony to make those picks in all categories.
Well here we are! Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning and this is my sixth and final round of predictions for nominees in the eight major categories. For my final predictions, I’ll list the predictions as well as others that could potentially make the cut. Here’s what changed the most: I have finally gotten on the Nightcrawler bandwagon and am now predicting a number of nominations for it. Tomorrow – I”ll have my reaction post up and pontificate on where I went wrong and right.
As you may know, the Best Picture race (unlike all others) can list anywhere from 5-10 nominees. I finally settled on nine… which is the same number of films nominated each year since that system was put into place. And without further adieu – Todd’s Final Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Other Possibilities: American Sniper, Gone Girl, Unbroken
Best Director
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ana DuVernay, Selma
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Other Possibilities: Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Clint Eastwood (American Sniper), David Fincher (Gone Girl), Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
Best Actor
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhall, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Other Possibilities: Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel), David Oyelowo (Selma)
Best Actress
Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Other Possibilities: Amy Adams (Big Eyes), Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Other Possibilities: Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice), Tom Wilkinson (Selma)
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Other Possibilities: Laura Dern (Wild), Rene Russo (Nightcrawler), Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer), Naomi Watts (St. Vincent)
Best Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Other Possibilities: The LEGO Movie, A Most Violent Year, Selma
Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Other Possibilities: American Sniper, Wild
And there you have it, folks! We’ll see how smart (or dumb) I am tomorrow morning!!
Expanding nationwide one day after Oscar nominations are revealed, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper hits theaters Friday. Bradley Cooper has been getting some of the best reviews of his career playing the real life title character Chris Kyle, known for having the most kills in U.S. military history. Sienna Miller costars as his wife.
Trailers and TV spots have been quite effective and the solid critical reaction helps. Sniper seems likely to receive a Best Picture nomination, though that’s not guaranteed (my final predictions arrive Tuesday). The pic could particularly play well in middle America.
Last January, another war themed flick Lone Survivor debuted to higher than anticipated grosses with $38 million. That would seem to be a fair range to put Sniper in. In fact, I believe it could contend for biggest January premiere ever. That honor currently belongs to Ride Along, which took in $41.5 million a year ago. My estimate has Sniper falling just shy of that mark.
American Sniper opening weekend prediction: $40.6 million
For my prediction on The Wedding Ringer, click here:
We have arrived at take #4 of my Oscar Predictions and these reflect my first predictions in the month of December. Much has changed since my last pre-Thanksgiving picks. Most importantly, the nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been released and they obviously show many directions in which the Academy could go. Just as importantly, Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken screened for critics. Many anticipated the picture could be a potential Oscar front runner. However, it didn’t pan out that way with its current 55% Rotten Tomatoes rating. It may struggle now to be nominated at all.
As I’ve done before, let’s breakdown the eight major categories one by one:
Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything appear to be locks for nominations here. I will still include Unbroken, though its inclusion is less clear. The fifth slot could be anything from Still Alice to American Sniper to Into the Woods. Yet (for now) I’ll go with Wild. This latest round replaces Into the Woods with the Reese Witherspoon drama.
Predicted Nominees
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Wild
Best Original Screenplay
No changes here in a very strong category. However, the list of movies that could be spoiler nominees includes Mr. Turner, Foxcatcher, A Most Violent Year, and even The LEGO Movie.
Predicted Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Selma
Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress
Just one change here as I’m taking out Carmen Ejogo for Selma and replacing her with Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year. Other potential nominees: Laura Dern in Wild, Carrie Coon in Gone Girl, and Kristen Stewart in Still Alice.
Predicted Nominees
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Best Supporting Actor
The disappointment of the Unbroken reaction has led me to take out Miyavi for that picture and replace him with Tom Wilkinson as President Lyndon Johnson in Selma. Other potential nominees: Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice and Tim Roth in Selma. Robert Duvall has landed SAG and Globe nods, but I still can’t bring myself to include him yet.
Predicted Nominees
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Tom Wilkinson, Selma
Best Actress
This category seems to have four locks: Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon, Felicity Jones, and Rosamund Pike. The five spot is truly up for grabs. It could go to Hilary Swank (The Homesman), Jennifer Aniston (Cake), Emily Blunt (Into the Woods), or Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars). For now – I’m taking Blunt out and predicting the final slot goes to Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night.
Predicted Nominees
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Best Actor
In any other year – Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Jake Gyllenhall (Nightcrawler), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), and Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year) might find themselves in the mix. However, there are five other strong contenders and they’re the same that I predicted last month.
Predicted Nominees
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Best Director
I’ve had Angelina Jolie included in my previous three posts, but she’s out for the first time. I’m replacing her with David Fincher for now. Other possibilities include Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), James Marsh (The Theory of Everything), and JC Chandor (A Most Violent Year), among others.
Predicted Nominees
Ana DuVernay, Selma
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Best Picture
Two changes here as Into the Woods and Interstellar are out. I’m still including Unbroken, but it may be in serious danger. The two newbies have both been predicted in previous posts but not last month: Foxcatcher and Gone Girl.
Other pictures not predicted that could find a way in: The Grand Budapest Hotel, A Most Violent Year, American Sniper, and Mr. Turner.
Predicted Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Whiplash
And that’s the latest folks! I’ll likely have a part two December predictions before the dawn of 2015. Stay tuned!
November brings us my third edition of my Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Since October’s round of predictions, a few important things have happened. First and foremost, Ana DuVernay’s Martin Luther King Civil Rights pic Selma has screened for critics and vaulted itself into a major contender… and not just for nominations. Disney’s Into the Woods screened just last night and it too has entered the fray. The only film left unseen is Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken, but it remains a potential force to be reckoned with.
Let’s go through the categories one by one and I’ll point out what changes have transpired in the last few weeks!
Best Adapted Screenplay
Only one change here as I’ve taken out American Sniper and subbed in Into the Woods. The other four nominees seem like sure things for the most part. If Woods or Sniper don’t get in, Inherent Vice, Still Alice, or Wild are other possibles.
Predicted Nominees
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Best Original Screenplay
I had Interstellar in a month ago, but this seems unlikely after the main complaints of critics was the script. Foxcatcher is out as well as it seems to be losing momentum in the Academy derby. I’ve put it Selma and Whiplash in their place. I’m still keeping in The Grand Budapest Hotel, though many prognosticators have it out of competition. A Most Violent Year and Mr. Turner could get in, too.
Predicted Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Selma
Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress
We have a couple changes here as Meryl Streep (Into the Woods) and Carmen Ejogo (Selma) join the mix, supplanting Laura Dern (Wild) and Kristen Stewart (Still Alice). Other possibles include Carrie Coon (Gone Girl) and Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year).
Predicted Nominees
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Carmen Ejogo, Selma
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Best Supporting Actor
We’ll make this simple – this is the one race where nothing has changed prediction wise! If any of my predictions falter – keep an eye out for Tom Wilkinson and Tim Roth (both for Selma), Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice), or Robert Duvall (The Judge).
Predicted Nominees
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Miyavi, Unbroken
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Actress
Just one alteration here as I’ve taken out Amy Adams for Big Eyes and substituted Emily Blunt for Into the Woods. Others with surprise nomination shots are Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night), Hilary Swank (The Homesman), and Jennifer Aniston (Cake).
Predicted Nominees
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Best Actor
The most competitive category of all appears to have four shoo-ins now: Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Keaton, David Oyelowo, and Eddie Redmayne. This is actually the first time I’ve included Oyelowo after Selma screened, so I’ve removed Jack O’Connell in Unbroken. The fifth slot is tough – it could be O’Connell, Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), or even Jake Gyllenhall (Nightcrawler) or Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel). For now, though, I’m sticking with Steve Carell in Foxcatcher, despite its downgrading among many for possible nominations.
Predicted Nominees
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Best Director
Last month, I included high profile auteurs David Fincher (Gone Girl) and Christopher Nolan (Interstellar). They’re out and Ana DuVernay (Selma) and Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) are in. Oscar could make some history if DuVernay makes it in. She’d be the first African American woman to be recognized in this category. Additionally, my current estimates that include her and Angelina Jolie would mark the first time two women are up for the award.
Predicted Nominees
Ana DuVernay, Selma
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Best Picture
I’m still sticking with nine predicted nominees yet a third of them have changed. Gone are Gone Girl, Foxcatcher, and American Sniper. They all have decent shots still, along with A Most Violent Year, Mr. Turner, and The Grand Budapest Hotel. Joining the mix are Selma (a no brainer now) and less sure things Into the Woods and Whiplash. I’m still including Interstellar, though that’s an iffy proposition.
Predicted Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Whiplash
We’ll have a fourth round of December predictions soon enough, friends! Until then…
Another picture that premiered during this week’s AFI Film Festival is garnering some Oscar chatter, though not to the extent of the MLK biopic Selma, which I wrote about yesterday.
That would be Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper, which tells the true life story of Chris Kile, who’s said to have over 300 kills in his military service. The central character is played by Bradley Cooper and he’s managed Oscar nominations the past two years (for Actor in 2012 with Silver Linings Playbook and Supporting Actor in 2013 with American Hustle).
For Cooper, pulling off the trifecta could be an uphill battle. He is receiving rave reviews for his work here, but the Best Actor race is incredibly crowded. Five performances – Michael Keaton (Birdman), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything), David Oyelowo (Selma), Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), all seem likely for recognition. That leaves room for no one else. Still, if one of them were to be left out, Cooper is a wise substitute pick.
The only other actor in the film with any chance would be Sienna Miller, who plays Kile’s wife in the Supporting Actress race. She, too, may be on the outside looking in and it’s somewhat difficult to see her inclusion if Cooper isn’t recognized.
Some reviews out of AFI have been quite positive while others are more mixed. I don’t see Eastwood picking up a Director nod. Strangely enough, American Sniper could be a movie that is recognized only in the Best Picture category. That may depend a lot on its box office grosses, which could be substantial (Lone Survivor is a recent similar genre title that did very well).
For now, I’ll predict Sniper doesn’t make the cut – though that is certainly subject to change as the race takes shape over the next two months.
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