Riding a wave of serious Oscar buzz, A Star Is Born is unveiled in theaters next weekend. The musical romance is the third remake of the 1937 film (the last was from 1976 with Barbra Streisand and Kris Kristofferson). It marks the directorial debut of Bradley Cooper, who also stars as an alcoholic country singer who discovers and falls for a budding superstar (Lady Gaga). Costars include Sam Elliot, Dave Chappelle, Andrew Dice Clay, and Rafi Gavron.
After premiering at the Venice Film Festival weeks ago, Star immediately garnered awards attention. With great reviews (95% on Rotten Tomatoes), this is seen as a serious contender in a number of races including Best Picture. The performances of Cooper and Gaga have been met with raves. While she’s one of music’s biggest names, Gaga’s filmography has been limited to FX’s “American Horror Story” and Machete Kills. She seems destined to pick up an Oscar nod.
The likelihood is that Star will ride its awards chatter to solid grosses throughout the fall. How high it opens is more of a mystery. While it will almost certainly place second to Venom, the range is significant. I believe a gross of over $40 million is achievable.
A Star Is Born opening weekend prediction: $48.6 million
It’s been quite some time since I’ve done an Oscar History post (about two and a half years) and I’m at 2012. It was a year in which Seth MacFarlane hosted the show – fresh off his comedy smash Ted. Here’s what transpired in the major categories with some other pictures and performers I might have considered:
The year saw nine nominees for Best Picture in which Ben Affleck’s Argo took the top prize. Other nominees: Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook (my personal favorite of the year), and Zero Dark Thirty.
Many Wes Anderson fans would contend that Moonrise Kingdom should have made the cut. And I could certainly argue that The Avengers (perhaps the greatest comic book flick and the year’s biggest grosser) was worth a nod.
The nominations in Best Director were a huge surprise at the time. While Argo won the top prize of all, Affleck was not nominated for his behind the camera efforts. It was the first time since Driving Miss Daisy‘s Bruce Beresford where an Oscar-winning Picture didn’t see its filmmaker nominated.
Instead it was Ang Lee who was victorious for Life of Pi over Michael Haneke (Amour), David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook), Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), and Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild).
In addition to Affleck, it was surprising that Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) was not included. And I certainly would have put in Tarantino for Django.
The race for Best Actor seemed over when the casting of Daniel Day-Lewis as Abraham Lincoln was announced. And that’s exactly how it played out as he won his third Oscar over a strong slate of Bradley Cooper (Playbook), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), and Denzel Washington (Flight).
The exclusion of John Hawkes in The Sessions could have been welcomed, but I’ll admit that’s a solid group.
Jennifer Lawrence won Best Actress for Silver Linings over Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts), and Naomi Watts (The Impossible).
Again, no major qualms here. I did enjoy the work of Helen Mirren in Hitchcock (for which she did get a Golden Globe nod).
Supporting Actor was competitive as Christoph Waltz won his second statue for Django (three years after Inglourious Basterds). He was a bit of a surprise winner over Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln. Other nominees: Alan Arkin (Argo), Robert De Niro (Playbook), and Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master).
Here’s a year where there’s a lot of others I thought of. Waltz won, but I think the work of Leonardo DiCaprio and Samuel L. Jackson in Django was equally impressive. There’s Javier Bardem as one of the greatest Bond villains ever in Skyfall. Or John Goodman’s showy role in Flight. As for some other blockbusters that year, how about Tom Hiddleston in The Avengers or Matthew McConaughey in Magic Mike? And my favorite comedic scene of that year was due to Giovanni Ribisi in Ted…
In Supporting Actress, Anne Hathaway was a front-runner for Les Miserables and there was no upset. Other nominees: Amy Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), Helen Hunt (The Sessions), and Jacki Weaver (Playbook).
Judi Dench had more heft to her part as M in Skyfall that year and I’ll also give a shout-out to Salma Hayek’s performance in Oliver Stone’s Savages.
And there’s your Oscar history for 2012! I’ll have 2013 up… hopefully in less than two and a half years!
My weekly Oscar predictions are below for your perusal! The whirlwind festival season of Venice/Telluride/Toronto has come to an end and there’s precious few Academy contenders left to screen as the races come into more focus.
Here are some significant developments over the week:
The rise of Green Book after it won the Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival. The Peter Farrelly directed race relations drama has vaulted into the Best Picture contest as it rises from #10 on last week’s list to #5. It replaces Boy Erased in my listing of the nine predicted Picture nominees. We are not entirely sure yet that it’s Viggo Mortensen for lead Actor and Mahershala Ali for Supporting Actor, though that appears to be the case. Mortensen is now a predicted nominee (going from #8 to #4) and that means I took Robert Redford’s performance in The Old Man & The Gun out. Ali rises from #5 to #2 in Supporting Actor.
In Best Director, I’ve gone back to Spike Lee being nominated for BlacKkKlansman over Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk.
The Best Actress five remains the same, but I’ll note that Yalitza Aparicio’s work in Roma is sneaking up there as far a predicted nominee.
Word is out that Natalie Portman in Vox Lux will be campaigned for in Supporting Actress and not lead. My rankings reflect that change.
Speaking of Supporting Actress, I now have both Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz in for The Favourite. Weisz replaces Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased (that film has taken a big hit as of late in my rankings and we’ll see if it recovers).
Stan and Ollie released its first trailer and while I don’t have it predicted for actual nominations, the film makes its first appearance as far as possible nods in Picture, Supporting Actor (John C. Reilly), and Original Screenplay.
The critically acclaimed Leave No Trace from earlier this year makes its inaugural showing for possible nominations in Picture, Supporting Actress (Thomasin McKenzie), and Adapted Screenplay.
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. First Man (PR: 3)
4. The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Green Book (PR: 10)
6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
8. Black Panther (PR: 9)
9. Vice (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
11. Boy Erased (PR: 7)
12. Widows (PR: 12)
13. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 14)
14. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 16)
15. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 15)
16. The Front Runner (PR: 13)
17. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 23)
18. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 19)
19. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 17)
20. Beautiful Boy (PR: 21)
21. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 18)
22. Stan and Ollie (PR: Not Ranked)
23. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 24)
24. Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ben Is Back
Cold War
Peterloo
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 3)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 12)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 10)
9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 9)
11. Jacques Audiard, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 13)
12. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 11)
13. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 14)
14. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
15. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 3)
3. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 2)
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 8)
5. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 5)
7. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 7)
8. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 12)
9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 6)
11. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 13)
12. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 11)
13. John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 10)
14. Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 9)
8. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 10)
10. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 13)
11. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 12)
12. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 11)
13. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 14)
14. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 15)
15. Keira Knightley, Colette (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (moved to Supporting Actress)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)
2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 5)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)
5. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 13)
7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
8. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)
9. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 9)
10. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 7)
11. John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 11)
13. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: 12)
14. Jason Clarke, First Man (PR: 14)
15. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Best Supporting Actress
1. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 1)
2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 7)
5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 5)
7. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 10)
8. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Lead Actress)
9. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 6)
10. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows (PR: 8)
11. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 11)
12. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
14. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)
My weekly Oscar predictions in the major categories, as expected, has seen some significant shifting. This is mostly due to the Toronto Film Festival and the screenings of several major contenders.
Here are some quick notes on the movement that’s taken place in the past seven days:
The addiction drama Beautiful Boy has taken a hit in the standings, due to a mixed Toronto reaction. It falls from #5 all the way to #21 in the Best Picture derby. Additionally, I have taken it out the 5 predicted nominees in Best Actor (Steve Carell) and Adapted Screenplay. However, Timothee Chalamet is still looking good for Supporting Actor.
If Beale Street Could Talk had its much awaited debut up north. I basically had it as a place holder pick at #1 in both Picture and Director, but it’s fallen in both races to #5 and #4, respectively. This vaults A Star Is Born to the #1 slot in BP with Alfonso Cuaron’s direction of Roma currently topping Best Director.
The elimination of the Best Popular Film category could be a good thing for Black Panther. For the first time, I have it included in my nine predicted BP nominees.
Peter Farrelly’s Green Book seemed to be a crowd favorite in Toronto. While I have it just outside my BP rankings, it’s now included in Best Original Screenplay and Mahershala Ali is predicted for Supporting Actor. It’s not entirely certain yet whether he will be placed in that category or go co-lead with Viggo Mortensen.
Speaking of category placement, we’re still not sure where Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz will end up for The Favourite. Right now, I’m assuming Colman in Actress and both Stone and Weisz for Supporting Actress. I’ve now got Stone getting a nod for the first time.
The Dick Cheney biopic starring Christian Bale has apparently switched its working title name Backseat to Vice.
My current Best Actor predictions now include Ryan Gosling (First Man) and Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun) with the aforementioned Carell and Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner) out.
In Best Actress, solid Toronto chatter for the work of Viola Davis (Widows) puts her in the mix with Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) taken out.
Widows also shined a light on Daniel Kaluuya as he’s said to have a terrific part in it. He is now included in Supporting Actor along with Green Book‘s Ali. Sam Rockwell (Vice) and Russell Crowe (Boy Erased) have been moved out of the predicted nominees.
In Supporting Actress, Emma Stone has replaced Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner).
Yorgos Lanthimos has been included in my 5 director nominees and that means Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) is on the outside looking in currently.
Here’s the whole breakdown for this week!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. Roma (PR: 3)
3. First Man (PR: 4)
4. The Favourite (PR: 6)
5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR 1)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
7. Boy Erased (PR: 8)
8. Vice (PR: 9 – previously known as Backseat)
9. Black Panther (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
10. Green Book (PR: 18)
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 15)
12. Widows (PR: 14)
13. The Front Runner (PR: 10)
14. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 25)
15. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 24)
16. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)
17. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 21)
18. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 17)
19. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 16)
20. Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
22. Cold War (PR: 20)
23. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 23)
24. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 19)
25. Peterloo (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
July 22
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 2)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 4)
4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
8. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 9)
9. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)
10. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 13)
11. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 15)
12. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jacques Audiard, The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy
Mike Leigh, Peterloo
Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)
4. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 4)
5. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
7. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
8. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 10)
9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 5)
10. John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 14)
11. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)
12. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 12)
13. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 15)
14. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 13)
15. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 11)
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 4)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)
5. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 12)
7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)
8. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 9)
9. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 3)
10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
12. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
13. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 11)
14. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 13)
15. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Joanna Kulig, Cold War
Best Supporting Actor
1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 3)
7. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 5)
8. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
9. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
10. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)
11. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
12. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Jason Clarke, First Man (PR: 12)
15. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick
J.K. Simmons, The Front Runner
Best Supporting Actress
1. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 1)
2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 7)
4. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 3)
5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 14)
7. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 11)
8. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Maura Tierney, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)
10. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
11. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner (PR: 4)
13. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex (PR: Not Ranked)
What a difference a week makes! Last Thursday, I gave you my first initial predictions in the major categories for the Oscars. Since then – we’ve seen a slew of pictures screened at the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals.
Films like A Star Is Born, Roma, First Man, and The Favourite solidified their status as contenders. Others like Boy Erased and The Front Runner availed themselves as possibilities, but not slam dunks. Others like Destroyer and The Old Man & The Gun likely took themselves out of the running in Best Picture, but shined a light on their actors that could receive nods.
And here’s the thing… by the time I do my third round of predictions next Thursday, we will have lots more pictures screened at the Toronto Film Festival, which begins today. That includes such high-profile titles as If Beale Street Could Talk, Beautiful Boy, Widows, and more.
Here’s how I have the key races ranked by possibility of nomination at this point in time!
Best Picture
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Roma (PR: 4)
4. First Man (PR: 5)
5. Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
6. The Favourite (PR: 13)
7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
8. Boy Erased (PR: 7)
9. Backseat (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Front Runner (PR: 14)
11. Black Panther (PR: 12)
12. Peterloo (PR: 9)
13. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
14. Widows (PR: 11)
15. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 16)
16. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 17)
17. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 22)
18. Green Book (PR: 21)
19. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 24)
20. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)
21. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 23)
22. July 22 (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 19)
24. The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
The Old Man & The Gun
Destroyer
Ben Is Back
Best Director
1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 2)
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 11)
7. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)
8. Adam McKay, Backseat (PR: 7)
9. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
10. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner (PR: 14)
11. Mike Leigh, Peterloo (PR: 9)
12. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 13)
14. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
15. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 3)
3. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)
4. Christian Bale, Backseat (PR: 6)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)
7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 5)
8. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 7)
9. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
10. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 13)
11. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 10)
12. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 12)
13. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 14)
14. John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Rory Kinnear, Peterloo
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 6)
4. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 9)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)
8. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 3)
9. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
11. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
12. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 15)
13. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)
14. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 13)
15. Joanna Kulig, Cold War
Dropped Out:
Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Best Supporting Actor
1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
3. Sam Rockwell, Backseat (PR: 3)
4. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
5. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)
7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 9)
10. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 13)
11. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 5)
12. Jason Clarke, First Man (PR: 11)
13. David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
14. Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick (PR: Not Ranked)
15. J.K. Simmons, The Front Runner (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sebastian Stan, Destroyer
Topher Grace, BlacKkKlansman
Best Supporting Actress
1. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 3)
2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Backseat (PR: 5)
4. Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner (PR: 10)
5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maura Tierney, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)
7. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 12)
10. Amy Ryan, Beautiful Boy (PR: 7)
11. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 11)
12. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
13. Blythe Danner, What They Had (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
15. Rachel McAdams, Disobedience (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Tatiana Maslany, Destroyer
Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
4. Boy Erased (PR: 3)
5. First Man (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
7. The Front Runner (PR: 8)
8. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
9. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
10. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
11. Disobedience (PR: 13)
12. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 15)
13. Widows (PR: 12)
14. Wildlife (PR: 14)
15. The Miseducation of Cameron Post (PR: Not Ranked)
Three years ago, director Brady Corbet took home the Best Director prize and Best Debut film at Venice for The Childhood of a Leader. In 2018, he’s back at the festival with his follow-up Vox Lux. Said to be a haunting tale of a pop music princess (Natalie Portman), early word of mouth is quite encouraging for Corbet’s second effort behind the camera. Some reviewers have commented that it’s a darker take on the same themes of another festival favorite, Bradley Cooper’s A Star Is Born.
Portman’s work is said to be fantastic. Her costars include Jude Law, Raffey Cassidy, and Willem Dafoe (on narrator duties), but expect any awards chatter to go to its lead. Portman has been nominated three times already for 2004’s Closer, 2010’s Black Swan (for which she won), and 2016’s Jackie. It may not hurt that Oscar voters are aware of her performance in Annihilation earlier this year, which also earned positive notices.
One important point worth noting: Vox Lux has yet to secure U.S. distribution, so it’s possible this may not hit theaters stateside in 2018. However, based on reaction from Italy, I expect that to occur in short order.
Bottom line: International pop star Lady Gaga has likely made the short list in Best Actress for A Star Is Born. Natalie Portman could potentially join that short list playing an international pop star.
One of the most eagerly awaited pictures has debuted at Venice today with A Star Is Born. The film is the third remake of a tale that began onscreen over 80 years ago. The 1937 version starred Janet Gaynor and Fredric March. The 1954 Star featured Judy Garland and James Mason. The 1976 version featured Barbra Streisand and Kris Kristofferson. All three of them received multiple Oscar nominations. None of them were featured in the Best Picture race.
That is probably about to change. The 2018 Star is directed, co-written, and starring Bradley Cooper in his debut behind the camera. His acting counterpart is Lady Gaga. Early reviews have praised both of their performances and it appears very likely both will be honored in their respective lead acting races. This would obviously be Gaga’s first nomination and Cooper’s fourth after Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, and American Sniper. Cooper may well find himself honored for his direction and Adapted Screenplay alongside Eric Roth and Will Fetters.
As for supporting players, the Academy may take notice of Sam Elliot’s work as Cooper’s older brother. Critics have also pointed out the performance of Rafi Gavron as the manager of Cooper’s troubled music superstar character.
Several down the line categories could in the mix including Cinematography, Editing, both Sound races, and Gaga’s original songs that are expected to be part of the soundtrack.
Bottom line: Another contender was born today in Venice – one with serious star power.
A Star Is Born opens domestically on October 5. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
My weekly ranked Oscar predictions kick off today as the Venice Film Festival is in full swing with Toronto and Telluride on deck!
Each Thursday, I will be bringing you my top 25 possibilities for Best Picture, along with 15 for Best Director, the four acting races, and the screenplay categories.
In November, the rankings will constrict to 15 possibilities for Best Picture and ten for every other race covering feature films (this is when all the tech categories, animated feature, foreign film, documentary will enter the mix).
Before I get to the rankings, some warnings: these will change dramatically as time rolls along. Some features could be pushed back to 2019. Some of them will instantly become non-factors due to poor critical reaction. Others will vault higher.
In the acting races, there is always uncertainty at this juncture about placement in which category. Here’s a few 2018 examples: right now I have Steve Carell listed in lead actor for Beautiful Boy with Timothee Chalamet in supporting. That could switch or both could be campaigned for in lead. Time will tell. Same goes for Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali in Green Book. Right now, I have Tim Blake Nelson in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs for lead, but it could easily be supporting. And it’s uncertain where the women (Olivia Colman, Rachel Weisz, Emma Stone) of The Favourite will land.
All of this will be sorted out in the coming weeks and months and I’ll be here every Thursday to share with you where I have each category at this snapshot in time.
You can expect a whole bunch of Oscar Watch posts coming your way directly focused on individual films screenings at festivals over the coming days.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
BestPicture
1. If Beale Street Could Talk
2. A Star Is Born
3. Beautiful Boy
4. Roma
5. First Man
6. BlacKkKlansman
7. Boy Erased
8. Backseat
9. Peterloo
Other Possibilities:
10. Mary Queen of Scots
11. Widows
12. Black Panther
13. The Favourite
14. The Front Runner
15. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
16. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
17. Crazy Rich Asians
18. Old Man & The Gun
19. Bohemian Rhapsody
20. Destroyer
21. Green Book
22. Mary Poppins Returns
23. At Eternity’s Gate
24. On the Basis of Sex
25. Ben Is Back
BestDirector
1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
4. Damien Chazelle, First Man
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Other Possibilities:
6. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy
7. Adam McKay, Backseat
8. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
9. Mike Leigh, Peterloo
10. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
12. Steve McQueen, Widows
13. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
14. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
15. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
We’ve arrived at Best Director in my early bird predictions for the 2018 Oscars! In the last couple of days, I’ve also posted my take on the four acting categories and the new race that everyone has an opinion on – Best Popular Film. If you missed those, you can find them right here:
As mentioned previously, these categories will all come into much sharper focus this coming week when Venice kicks off Film Festival season with Toronto to quickly follow.
Let’s get to it with Director and Best Picture will follow later today.
Back at it again today with my very early Oscar predictions for 2018! We are now at Best Actor.
Yesterday, I discussed the Supporting categories. Earlier today, I posted my initial predictions for Actress. If you missed my take on them, you can peruse them here:
As mentioned in those posts, these are an early bird snapshot of where I see the races before they come into sharper focus beginning next week. That’s when the film festival kicks off and many of the Oscar bait fall titles will be screened for critics. Starting next Thursday (August 30), I’ll begin posting my weekly ranked predictions in the major film categories.
Tomorrow – look for Best Director and my first take on the new category everyone is talking about – Best Popular Film. Best Picture should be up Sunday!
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