It’s been a question nagging at me for a few days now. Is Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast truly the Best Picture frontrunner? I’ve had it ranked #1 for weeks and weeks. Yet I find myself moving away from it in other top of the line races. And that casts a shadow of doubt and a legitimate one.
Why? Let’s start with Best Director. I’ve never had Branagh listed in first place. That spot has mostly been held by Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog. I also believe Denis Villeneuve could be honored for Dune. And West Side Story holds the ability to make a real impact and that could sweep its maker (his name is Steven Spielberg) in. Even if Branagh doesn’t take the gold for his behind the camera work, that doesn’t eliminate Belfast for Pic contention. Those races often split (8 out of 21 times this century).
So let’s move onto its Original Screenplay. Up until the last few days, I had Belfast placed first there. However, I’ve replaced it with Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza. Once again, not winning screenplay doesn’t necessarily forecast losing Best Picture. That’s occurred six times in the 21 21st century ceremonies (including with last year’s Nomadland).
Here’s where it gets trickier. What’s the latest Best Picture winner to land the gold statue without a Director or Screenplay victory? That would be 19 years ago with Chicago. It happened two years prior to that with Gladiator.
What do both of those films have in common? They both picked up another major award. For Gladiator, it was Russell Crowe in Best Actor. With Chicago – Catherine Zeta-Jones’s Supporting Actress win.
So if history is any guide, Belfast at least needs an acting win. That’s absolutely possible in either supporting race. I’ve had Caitriona Balfe at #1 for some time (while having her costar Judi Dench on the outside looking in). I’m not sure if she stays there when I do my update this week. Her biggest threat to lose could come from Ariana DeBose in West Side Story. I also wouldn’t count out Aunjanue Ellis for King Richard or Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog.
Supporting Actor is wide open. Both Ciaran Hinds and Jamie Dornan’s performances in Belfast could make the cut. I don’t have either in first place. That slot belongs to Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of the Dog at the moment. Anything could happen in Supporting Actor and hopefully the picture becomes more clear as precursors bestow their best of’s. We could see contenders like Troy Kotsur (CODA), Mike Faist (West Side Story), Jared Leto (House of Gucci), or Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) rise.
My point is this. The idea that Belfast doesn’t win Director, any acting race, or screenplay is quite feasible. If that occurs, how can it be considered the favorite for the biggest competition of the bunch?
Of course this post could be premature. Belfast could win Director, Original Screenplay, and podium trips for Balfe and probably Hinds over Dornan (or some combo of that). Or there’s the other scenario. If Licorice Pizza takes screenplay and the supporting prizes go elsewhere and a different filmmaker takes their race, Oscar night is more likely to end in a West Side story or with a Dog flexing power or with a Pizza delivery.
The last time Guillermo del Toro was behind the camera, 13 Oscar nominations came his way with 2017’s The Shape of Water (including wins in Picture and Director). His follow-up is Nightmare Alley, a remake of a 1947 pic which was based on a 1946 William Lindsay Gresham novel. The noirish thriller boasts an impressive cast led by Bradley Coper (in his first starring role since 2018’s A Star Is Born). Costars include Rooney Mara, Cate Blanchett, Toni Collette, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins, Ron Perlman, Mary Steenburgen, and David Strathairn.
Long looked at as an Oscar contender, the recent review embargo lapse made the situation a bit murkier. The 83% Rotten Tomatoes score is decent, but some critics are griping that it’s a disappointment. Its standing in the Best Picture race is questionable.
Stronger awards buzz could have pushed this to higher numbers, but that’s not the only challenge. Plenty of moviegoers will be distracted with the release of Spider-Man: No Way Home, which looks to blow away pandemic era records. Alley is only opening on about 2000 screens (about half of Spidey’s). It’s normal for projects in the December time frame to open relatively small and hope to play well in subsequent frames. That is likely to be the case here and low to mid single digits is my forecast.
Nightmare Alley opening weekend prediction: $3.3 million
For my Spider-Man: No Way Home prediction, click here:
***Blogger’s Update (12/07): As I was putting the finishing touches on this update, the Don’t Look Up review embargo ended and its RT score as of this writing is 58%. That means it’s falling out in multiple races including Best Picture. Tick Tick Boom! is the beneficiary in the big race. A Hero rises in Original Screenplay.
For quite some time, I’ve had a nagging feeling that an early year festival favorite might manage to make its way to the ten Best Picture nominees. That trio of pictures is CODA, Flee, and Mass. I have held off putting any in the final predicted ten, but that changes today with CODA. It’s a feel good entry that could get enough support to get in. By doing so, it knocks out Being the Ricardos. The Lucy and Desi tale from Aaron Sorkin had its official review embargo lift today and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 67%. The showbiz theme and Sorkin devotees could still sneak it in, but it drops from Picture and Original Screenplay for now. Nicole Kidman stays in Actress, but falls from 2nd to 4th place.
Other changes in the main races:
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) is back in the Actress fold and I’ve finally taken out Jennifer Hudson for Respect.
Troy Kotsur gets the CODA bump in Supporting Actor to the detriment of Richard Jenkins (The Humans).
Ricardos being out of Original Screenplay helps out C’Mon C’Mon.
In Adapted Screenplay, it’s CODA in and Nightmare Alley out. I am continuing to keep Nightmare in the BP bunch yet it’s tenuous in 10th position.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+3)
8. CODA (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Tick Tick Boom! (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-5)
13. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (-4)
14. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
15. House of Gucci (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Lost Daughter
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (E)
4. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 10) (+2)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)
9. Renaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Julia Ducournau, Titane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Pablo Larrain, Spencer
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (E)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 5) (+2)
4. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 4) (+2)
5. A Hero (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Mass (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Parallel Mothers
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+2)
3. The Lost Daughter (PR: 2) (-1)
4. CODA (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Humans (PR: 8) (E)
9. Passing (PR: 9) (E)
10. Drive My Car (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tick Tick Boom!
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 6) (E)
7. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Vivo (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. Drive My Car (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Titane (PR: 6) (E)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Good Boss (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Attica (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Procession (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The First Wave (PR: 7) (E)
8. President (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ascension (PR: 9) (E)
10. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Belfast (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Spencer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Spencer (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Being the Ricardos
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E))
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. King Richard (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tick Tick Boom! (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
House of Gucci
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 4) (-2)
7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Suicide Squad
Licorice Pizza
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+1)
9. King Richard (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. Belfast (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
House of Gucci
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick Tick Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Time to Die (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-2)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+2)
9. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-2)
10. King Richard (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Eternals (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Finch (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Free Guy (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Suicide Squad (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
And that shakes out to these movies garnering these numbers in nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
10 Nominations
Belfast
9 Nominations
West Side Story
8 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
King Richard, Nightmare Alley
5 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Spencer, Tick Tick Boom!
2 Nominations
Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, A Hero, The Lost Daughter
1 Nomination
Attica, Being the Ricardos, Belle, C’Mon C’Mon, Drive My Car, Eternals, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, No Time to Die, Procession, The Rescue, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
Guillermo del Toro’s Nightmare Alley is likely to be the final film screened that could contend for Best Picture at the 2021 Oscars. That happened tonight and its social media embargo has lifted. This is the filmmaker’s follow-up to 2017’s The Shape of Water, which won four gold statues including Picture and Director. A remake of a 1947 noir thriller, Alley has a cast filled with familiar faces led by Bradley Cooper and Rooney Mara (who are slated to contend in the lead races). The supporting cast includes Cate Blanchett, Toni Collette, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins, Ron Perlman, Mary Steenburgen, and David Strathairn.
Reaction out tonight offers plenty of praise. Unsurprisingly, this is being lauded for its technical aspects. Production Design and Cinematography sound like shoo-ins (and might challenge Dune for the victories). Other down the line derbies such as Sound, Costume Design, Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Score (though that’s gotten awfully crowded) are feasible.
How about the big dances? Early word solidifies its opportunity to get a Best Picture nomination and for del Toro’s behind the camera work. I had it ranked 8th yesterday and my early hunch says that’s about right. There’s enough mixed buzz in reaction tweets to make me think it’s not a threat to win. Adapted Screenplay is probable.
As for the actors, Cooper and Blanchett are the recipients of the most acclaim. The former’s path will be fascinating to track. I had him ranked #1 in Supporting Actor for weeks before Licorice Pizza was unveiled. That race, as has been discussed on the blog, is wide open. His limited screen time in Pizza could cause him to miss there. The question is whether Best Actor is already too packed (Will Smith as King Richard, Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog, Andrew Garfield for Tick Tick… Boom!, Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth, Peter Dinklage in Cyrano, Leonardo DiCaprio for Don’t Look Up). Is there enough space for Cooper? Precursors will tell. Supporting Actress is also filled with hopefuls and Blanchett will also need some early love from either critics groups or SAG or the Globes. Best Actress is also overflowing and I don’t see enough Mara talk for her to be viable.
Bottom line: Alley helped itself. It might be the “last in” but I feel decent about a Picture nod and definitely tech competitions. Cooper and Blanchett are more of a mystery. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
As December dawns, the story of my latest Oscar predictions is West Side Story. Steven Spielberg’s remake of the musical has been in my ten Best Picture nominees for some time. However, the solid buzz emanating from screenings gives it a bump from #8 to #4. Additionally, Spielberg is now in my five for Director and that takes out Guillermo del Toro for Nightmare Alley.
Speaking of Alley, we will have a far better idea of its viability later today when it gets its first look from critics and the social embargo is lifted. It’s fair to say that Alley is the final major contender to be unveiled and that makes an even clearer picture will be available for my next round.
In other developments:
While my five Best Actress picks remain the same, Rachel Zegler’s performance in West Side Story jumps from 10th to 6th.
The five slot in Best Actor shifts once again from Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon) to Peter Dinklage in Cyrano.
Rita Moreno’s work in West Side Story puts her in the five for the first time (and top ten for that matter). If my prediction comes true, she could join costar Ariana DeBose (who plays the role for which Moreno won her Oscar sixty years ago). It would also make her the oldest nominee in Academy history. Ann Dowd (Mass) falls out of the 5.
The wide open Supporting Actor derby sees Jamie Dornan (Belfast) in and Jason Isaacs (Mass) out.
King Richard returns to Original Screenplay over C’Mon C’Mon, which goes from 3 estimated nods in my previous post to zero.
West Side Story makes the cut for Adapted Screenplay to the detriment of The Humans.
Flee drops from the #1 spot in Animated Feature with Encanto in. Yet it rises to first in Documentary Feature over The Rescue.
You can read all the developments below and I’ll be back at it next week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (E)
4. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Dune (PR: 4) (-1)
6. King Richard (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. CODA (PR: 12) (+1)
12. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
15. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spencer
Flee
Mass
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 8) (E)
9. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 9) (E)
10. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (E)
5. King Richard (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mass (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Hero (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spencer
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. CODA (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Humans (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Passing (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Flee (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 8) (E)
9. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 9) (E)
10. Vivo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Charlotte
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Drive My Car (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Flee (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Titane (PR: 6) (E)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (E)
9. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Good Boss (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Memoria
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Rescue (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Procession (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Attica (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The First Wave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. President (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ascension (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ailey
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Spencer (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
C’Mon C’Mon
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Spencer (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune (PR: 3) (-1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cyrano (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (+1)
8. King Richard (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Being the Ricardos
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Spencer (PR: 4) (+1)
5. Cruella (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Suicide Squad (PR: 8) (E)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Green Knight
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-2)
8. King Richard (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 7) (+3)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 9) (E)
10. “The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Cyrano (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Spencer (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (E)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (E)
10. King Richard (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Tick Tick… Boom!
The Matrix Resurrections
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Eternals (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Free Guy (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Finch (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Suicide Squad
And that equates to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
10 Nominations
Belfast
9 Nominations
West Side Story
8 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Tragedy of Macbeth
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
Spencer
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Flee
2 Nominations
Cruella, Cyrano, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci, The Lost Daughter
1 Nomination
Belle, Drive My Car, Encanto, Eternals, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Humans, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, No Time to Die, Procession, The Rescue, Respect, Summer of Soul, Tick Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
Ten days makes a heckuva difference this time around for my Oscar predictions as there are updates in every major category expect Director! The biggest story: Being the Ricardos has established itself as a contender in numerous races based on initial screenings. We also have the rise of C’Mon C’Mon. These two pics have entered my ten Best Picture hopefuls and that’s to the detriment of Spencer and The Tragedy of Macbeth.
Additionally:
Nicole Kidman’s portrayal of Lucille Ball in Ricardos vaults 8 spots to #2 in Best Actress. Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) drops from the forecasted five.
Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon) is back in Best Actor and that displaces Peter Dinklage (Cyrano).
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) hits the 5 spot in Supporting Actress and that takes out Ruth Negga (Passing).
I’ve replaced Jamie Dornan in Belfast with his costar Ciaran Hinds in Supporting Actor.
In the screenplay race, Ricardos is in and King Richard is out in Original. For Adapted – Dune gets in over Macbeth.
We also have movement in the top spots. In the wide open Supporting Actor derby, Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) jumps 4 spots to #1. Licorice Pizza replaces Belfast for first in Original Screenplay.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. King Richard (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-2)
12. CODA (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Spencer (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Flee (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Mass (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tick, Tick… Boom!
House of Gucci
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pablo Larrain, Spencer
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+8)
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Alan Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Jude Hill, Belfast
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (E)
10. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (+4)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-1)
8. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Belfast (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Mass (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Hero (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spencer (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Parallel Mothers
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Humans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Dune (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. CODA (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Passing (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
House of Gucci
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 6) (-1_
8. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 8) (E)
9. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 9) (E)
10. Charlotte (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flee (PR: 3) (E)
4. Drive My Car (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Titane (PR: 5) (-1)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (E)
9. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Memoria (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Great Freedom
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Attica (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Procession (PR: 9) (+3)
7. President (PR: 7) (E)
8. The First Wave (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ailey (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (+4)
7. West Side Story (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spencer (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (E)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
House of Gucci
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cruella (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spencer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Being the Ricardos (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Green Knight (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Spencer (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. King Richard (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Belfast
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 2) (-2)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Guns Go Bang’ from The Harder They Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 1) (-1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Belfast (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Licorice Pizza
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 6) (-1)
8. King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Cyrano
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Eternals (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Finch (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Suicide Squad (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to the following in terms of movies nabbing these numbers with their nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast
8 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
Don’t Look Up
5 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, West Side Story
4 Nominations
King Richard, Spencer
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, C’Mon C’Mon, Flee, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, Mass, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Drive My Car, Eternals, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Rescue, Respect, Summer of Soul, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
When Paul Thomas Anderson writes and directs, the Academy takes notice and that won’t change with Licorice Pizza. Out in limited release November 26th before a Christmas Day expansion, the social media embargo is lapsed. Early word indicates the coming-of-age dramedy set in the Valley circa 1973 is one of the filmmaker’s most accessible and lighter works. And there are certainly categories where Oscar voters may bite.
Six out of the last seven PTA pictures have nabbed nominations. Two (There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread) contended for Best Picture and its maker made it both times for his direction. He has been nominated five times for screenwriting with the aforementioned titles as well as Boogie Nights, Magnolia, and Inherent Vice. Despite the multiple ballot appearances, PTA has yet to get his hands on a gold statue.
That could change here, but it’s no guarantee. I do believe the initial buzz suggests a Best Picture nod is likely and he could certainly be recognized for directing. I don’t foresee wins in either race.
Original Screenplay is a different story. Belfast is the main competition at the moment and that’s significant considering it’s the frontrunner for Picture. However, I could see a narrative developing where Anderson could emerge victorious partly as a career achievement/overdue honor.
Down the line recognition for Editing might be its strongest opportunity in tech derbies. For the actors, PTA’s filmography has resulted in nine nominations for its performers. There’s just one win with Daniel Day-Lewis in Blood. Interestingly, we’ve seen three nominees each in Actor, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress. None for Best Actress, but that’s where Pizza has perhaps the most feasible chance.
Alana Haim’s performance is already getting raves. The downside is that Best Actress looks awfully competitive in 2021 and it could be an uphill battle. She’ll need some critics awards love and precursors. Same goes for Cooper Hoffman who makes his big screen debut. He’s the son of the late Philip, who PTA featured in Hard Eight, Boogie Nights, Magnolia, Punch-Drunk Love, and The Master. He too is being lauded though breaking into Actor could be an even taller order for him.
Finally, that brings us to Bradley Cooper. Playing film producer and Barbra Streisand’s former hairdresser Jon Peters, this looked like the kind of juicy role that might finally get the four-time acting contender some hardware. I’ve had Cooper listed at #1 in my Supporting Actor predictions since I began doing them over the summer (even in my updated estimates from earlier in the evening). It seems that Cooper’s screen time is quite limited in this… enough so that he might miss the dance altogether. One bright side is that Supporting Actor is so wide open that even his brief appearance could make enough of an impression on the Academy. I do suspect that Cooper will, at the least, not be in the top spot when I update next week.
Bottom line: the Pizza party at the Oscars could involve Picture, Director, and absolutely Original Screenplay. The cast faces some challenges. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
My Oscar predictions in all feature film categories are updated and there’s movement to discuss! There’s been a change in my ten Best Picture nominees for the first time in several weeks as House of Gucci has fallen and I’m putting Don’t Look Up in. The social media reaction to Gucci has resulted in it dropping for multiple categories. I still have Lady Gaga garnering an Actress nod (though she drops from 2nd to 4th) as well as Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling.
In other developments:
Andrew Garfield vaults from 6th to 3rd in Best Actor for Tick, Tick… Boom! That’s to the detriment of Joaquin Phoenix for C’Mon C’Mon
Two changes in the ever evolving Supporting Actor derby with Jason Isaacs (Mass) and Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) making the cut and displacing Jared Leto (Gucci) and Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) is on the outside looking in for Supporting Actress with Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) rising
Don’t Look Up also enters Original Screenplay with Mass falling out of the top five
You can read all the updates right here!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 12) (+4)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Flee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 14) (+2)
13. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (-5)
14. CODA (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mass (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Tessa Thompson, Passing
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jude Hill, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, House of Gucci
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Al Pacino, House of Gucci
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 4) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+3)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mass (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Spencer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Hero (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Humans (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Passing (PR: 9) (+3)
7. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune (PR: 7) (-1)
9. CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Who Is Anne Frank (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Charlotte (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Vivo
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flee (PR: 3) (E)
4. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Titane (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hand of God (PR: 4) (-2)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (E)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Memoria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Attica (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The First Wave (PR: 9) (+3)
7. President (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ailey (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Procession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Ascension
The Velvet Underground
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (-1)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Spencer (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (E)
8. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Green Knight (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+3)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+2)
9. King Richard (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Belfast (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Licorice Pizza
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: Not Ranked)
3. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-4)
10. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spencer (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cyrano (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Belfast (PR: 7) (-1)
9. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Power of the Dog
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
7. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Last Duel (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Matrix Resurrections
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Free Guy (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Eternals (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Finch (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Spider-Man: Far From Home (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Suicide Squad (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to the following pictures nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast
8 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
Spencer
5 Nominations
King Richard, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
3 Nominations
Flee, House of Gucci
2 Nominations
Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, Mass, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, C’Mon C’Mon, Drive My Car, Godzilla vs. Kong, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, The Rescue, Respect, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Summer of Soul, Tick, Tick… Boom!, Titane, The Worst Person in the World
We come to Best Actor in my deep dive of the major Oscar races covering the four acting showdowns in addition to Picture and Director. If you missed the first two covering Supporting Actor and Actress, they’re here:
Looking at the past two years in my early November estimates in this competition, there’s a better track record than with the supporting categories. In 2019, with two months to go, I rightly had four of the five nominees pegged: winner Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), and Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes). Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) was mentioned in Other Possibilities. For the 2020 experience, that number was three – winner Anthony Hopkins in The Father, Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), and Gary Oldman (Mank). The other two were named as possibilities – Riz Ahmed for Sound of Metal and Minari‘s Steven Yeun.
In 2021, it appears that three hopefuls have probably punched their tickets. The conversation begins with Will Smith. He’s a two-time nominee – once 20 years ago as Ali and 15 years past in The Pursuit of Happyness. As King Richard, it may well be the Fresh Prince’s time to be crowned for the true life sports drama that is said to be a massive crowdpleaser.
When Smith lost for Ali, it was to Denzel Washington in Training Day. The two-time winner looks to be back in the mix with The Tragedy of Macbeth. While I’m feeling confident in his nomination, I don’t see Mr. Washington emerging victorious here.
The other probable player is Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog, gunning for his second nod seven years after The Imitation Game. Several festival reviews are calling it career best work and I don’t see him sliding.
After that, there’s quite a few of performers vying for the remaining two spots. There’s a few in the “not yet seen” silo. That includes Bradley Cooper in Nightmare Alley. We are all waiting to see how big his supporting role is in Licorice Pizza. I’ve had Cooper listed #1 there for months. If he ends up falling shot in that one, he could rise with this.
Andrew Garfield’s performance in Tick, Tick… Boom! is a trendy selection. He’s also a possibility in supporting with The Eyes of Tammy Faye (though I’m skeptical he makes it through there).
We also have Leonardo DiCaprio for Don’t Look Up. I’m not as high on the film as some other prognosticators, but laudatory screenings could change that dynamic. There’s also Adam Driver for House of Gucci and Cooper Hoffman for the aforementioned Pizza. With all these gentlemen, time will tell and we won’t have to wait long.
Back to the performances we do know about. Nicolas Cage garnered some of the best notices of his career for Pig. He’ll have internet chatter on his side but I wouldn’t bet the farm on him making it. Speaking of web love, expect the same for Timothee Chalamet (Dune). I believe he’s less likely than Cage. Same goes for former MTV veejay Simon Rex in Red Rocket.
Belfast is the frontrunner for Best Picture and its quartet of supporting thespians (Caitriona Balfe, Judi Dench, Jamie Dornan, Ciaran Hinds) could all show up in their races. The film’s young lead Jude Hill is more of a long shot. Clifton Collins Jr. drew raves beginning at Sundance with Jockey. I would say Sony Pictures Classics needs to up their game with his campaign for him to enter this derby. There’s also a slight chance that Amir Jadidi could be a factor in A Hero (which could take International Feature Film).
For now, I’m sticking with two actors that I’ve had in my five for awhile. Peter Dinklage has gotten plenty of Emmy love for his Game of Thrones stretch and his musical and dramatic stylings in Cyrano could cause the Academy to take note.
Even though he won just two years back for Joker, Joaquin Phoenix could be up again for C’Mon C’Mon if none of the unseen candidates rise in the polls.
Bottom line: Smith (especially), Cumberbatch, and Washington are all relatively safe at press time. About a dozen others will vie for slots four and five. Here’s where I have it at this beginning of November time frame:
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
Starting on the blog today, I’m taking a deeper dive into the four acting derbies at the Oscars as well as Picture and Director. It begins with Supporting Actor.
If I could use a couple words to describe this particular race – “very open” immediately comes to mind. With just two months left in the calendar year, I would go as far to say that not I’m not 100% certain on any performer discussed below making the final five. That’s rare.
Before I delve into the many hopefuls, let’s take a look at where my projections were at in 2019 and 2020 during the same time frame. Two years ago, I had already correctly pegged four of the five eventual nominees: winner Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time Hollywood), Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), and Al Pacino (The Irishman). The other contender was Joe Pesci (also for The Irishman) and I had him listed at #6 in Other Possibilities. In hindsight, Supporting Actor was well on its way to being established with two months remaining in 2019.
Not so much for 2020. Last year was more difficult than perhaps any before it in figuring out who’d make the cut (much of that uncertainty was due to COVID and the constantly shifting release schedule). On November 1, 2020 – my forecasted five contenders yielded just two of the eventual nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Leslie Odom, Jr. for One Night in Miami. I still had the winner (Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah) listed for the lead Actor competition. Both Lakeith Stanfield (Judas) and Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) were not yet mentioned in Other Possibilities.
With that context, we arrive in 2021. And I would say this year looks more like the previous one as opposed to 2019. There has been one constant since I began projecting the race back in the summer: Bradley Cooper for Licorice Pizza (known as Soggy Bottom just a couple of months ago). I’ve had him listed at #1 the whole way and it’s a prediction based mostly on gut since no one has seen the picture (that’ll change shortly). Cooper is a four-time acting nominee (Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, American Sniper, A Star is Born). He’s yet to take the gold. Pizza looks like it should be a juicy role for him. On the other hand, we do not yet known just how big (or small) his role is. When reviews come out, he could solidify himself as the frontrunner or drop out altogether. There’s also the possibility that one of the other supporting players (Sean Penn or Benny Safdie) could rise. For now, I’m still hangin’ with Mr. Cooper until the word-of-mouth tells me otherwise.
Shifting gears – here’s a fun fact. In three out of the last four years, we’ve seen two actors from the same movie recognized here. In 2017, it was Sam Rockwell (who won) and Woody Harrelson in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. For 2019 – you had Pacino and Pesci in The Irishman. Last year, it was the victorious Kaluuya and Stanfield for Judas.
Could that happen again? Absolutely and the best chance for that right now appears to be Belfast. A strong contender to win Best Picture, we could also see Jamie Dornan and Ciaran Hinds punch their tickets here. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see it happen. Dornan seems likelier to make it in, but Hinds is getting plenty of laudatory chatter as well.
There are other scenarios to make it four out of five years and some lie with pictures still not screened. Don’t Look Up has Jonah Hill, Rob Morgan, and Mark Rylance. Willem Dafoe and David Strathairn are viable for Nightmare Alley. And then there’s Jared Leto and Al Pacino in House of Gucci. The latest trailer features the latter more than the former. That disrupts the consensus that Leto has a better shot. I’m still going with Leto above Pacino, but when Gucci screens that dynamic may shift.
The double nominee situations don’t end there. Yet they both have actors that I believe have a significantly better chance than the other. For Mass, Jason Isaacs has been in my five while Reed Birney hasn’t made the top ten in some time. After The Power of the Dog was unveiled on the festival circuit, the narrative unexpectedly shifted to Kodi Smit-McPhee having a clearer path than Jesse Plemons. The Tragedy of Macbeth buzz solidified Corey Hawkins over Brendan Gleeson (though I’m skeptical either get in).
Now is a good time to point out that it’s been ten years since a Supporting Actor winner didn’t come from a Best Picture nominee (Christopher Plummer in Beginners). That’s why I find it a stretch that Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar), Idris Elba (The Harder They Fall), or Troy Kotsur (CODA) will be making trips to the podium. They could still get in, but their paths are tougher and they will all need heavy critics awards love to make the dance. There’s been some mentions for Jeffrey Wright in The French Dispatch, but (somewhat surprisingly) no Wes Anderson directed performance has been Academy nominated and I don’t see this being the first.
One actor where an exception could occur is Richard Jenkins in The Humans. I doubt it will land a Pic nod, but Jenkins is drawing raves for his work. Twice nominated before for The Visitor and The Shape of Water, I could see the veteran becoming a threat to win if Cooper falls.
Others worthy of mention include Jon Bernthal in King Richard. The attention could be so focused on Will Smith (who appears to be in the driver’s seat to take Actor) that his supporting cast fails to get in (that logic also applies to Supporting Actress hopeful Aunjanue Ellis). It’s also totally feasible that Richard is so popular with the Academy that it sweeps them all in. Andrew Garfield picked up solid notices for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. He might stand a better shot in lead for the upcoming and yet to be screened Tick, Tick… Boom! Timothy Spall for Spencer is doable, but Kristen Stewart is just as likely to be the sole nominee (and maybe the winner in Actress). The work of David Alvarez (West Side Story) and Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) has yet to be seen and is worth keeping an eye on.
So how does that all shake out? Truth be told, the five predicted performers listed below could look quite different a couple months from now. Here’s my best guesstimate for the moment:
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 