A prequel to a popular Japanese animated manga series, Jujutsu Kaisen 0 arrives stateside March 18th. Directed by Sunghoo Park, the Toho produced action fantasy from creator Gege Akutami has already earned over $100 million internationally.
Toho, the studio that gave us Godzilla, has had domestic success with recent releases in the U.S. My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising took in just over $5 million in spring 2020 for its start. In October 2021, My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising generated a tad above $6 million. In lower and non My Hero Academia series comps, Monster Hunter from December 2020 took in $2.2 million out of the gate (at a time when theaters were operating at their most extreme levels of COVID incapacity). That north of $2 million tally actually made it #1. And then there’s Demon Slayer, which did incredible business in April 2021 with $21 million in its first weekend.
With The Batman poised to perch itself for a third frame at #1, Jujutsu should post a healthy second or third place showing (depending on how Uncharted holds). I don’t think it gets near Slayer numbers, but it could get to mid to high single digits or possibly more.
Jujutsu Kaisen 0 opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million
With no new wide releases this weekend (or the next one), The Batman should easily maintain its perch atop the charts. The question is how much it drops in the sophomore frame.
I’m projecting a dip in the low to mid 50s range which would give it around $60-$65 million. Other holdovers should maintain their current rankings in the top five with smallish declines considering the lack of competition.
Here’s how I see it breaking down:
1. The Batman
Predicted Gross: $62.5 million
2. Uncharted
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
3. Dog
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
4. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
5. Death on the Nile
Predicted Gross: $1.9 million
Box Office Results (March 4-6)
As was widely expected, The Batman easily achieved the second best opening of the COVID era (behind Spidey). Robert Pattinson’s introduction as the Caped Crusader took in $134 million. That’s not near as high as my $155.2 million projection but it’s still a solid haul. With an A- Cinemascore grade and little competition, it will rule the month of March until The Lost City arrives on March 25th.
Uncharted dropped to second with $11.1 million, a tad ahead of my $10.5 million forecast. Tom Holland’s almost sure to be newest franchise sits at a cool $100 million.
Channing Tatum’s Dog was third with $6.1 million (I said $6.4 million) for a three-week take of $40 million.
Spider-Man: No Way Home was fourth at $4.5 million compared to my $3.8 million prediction. The massive tally is $786 million.
Death on the Nile rounded out the top five with $2.7 million (I went with $2.5 million). Total is $37 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… same Bat time… same Bat channel…
It’s an eagerly awaited weekend at the box office as The Batman looks to have the second highest debut of the COVID era (behind only Spider-Man: No Way Home). The DCEU reboot with Robert Pattinson as the Caped Crusader is the only new release of this weekend (and the majority of March) and my detailed prediction post on it can be found here:
The range of possibility is wide (anywhere from $100 to $200 million depending on what you’re reading). I believe a gross just north of $150 million is most likely and my projection gives it the 20th largest domestic opening of all time.
Holdovers should experience heftier dips than this past weekend with Uncharted, Dog, Spider-Man, and Death on the Nile all sliding a spot. Here’s how I see it looking:
1. The Batman
Predicted Gross: $155.2 million
2. Uncharted
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
3. Dog
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
4. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
5. Death on the Nile
Predicted Gross: $2.5 million
Box Office Results (February 25-27)
The leftovers didn’t spoil during the last frame of February while the two newcomers didn’t prove appetizing to moviegoers.
Uncharted ruled the charts for the second frame with $23 million, just ahead of my $21.8 million forecast for a two-week total of $83 million. Tom Holland, as I mentioned last week, has himself another promising franchise.
Channing Tatum’s Dog was a good boy in its sophomore outing with $10.1 million, outpacing my $8.4 million take. The two-week haul is $30 million.
Spider-Man: No Way Home was third with $5.8 million (I said $6 million) for a gargantuan take of $779 million.
Death on the Nile was fourth with $4.4 million, edging my $3.7 million prediction for a stalled $32 million overall.
Jackass Forever rounded out the top five with $3.1 million (I went with $2.8 million). It’s up to $52 million.
The fresh product managed respective 8th and 9th place starts. Studio 666, the horror comedy from the Foo Fighters, made only $1.5 million compared to my $2.1 million estimate. Cyrano with Peter Dinklage fared even worse with $1.3 million (I said $1.8 million).
Another chapter for the Caped Crusader flies into theaters March 4th with The Batman. The franchise reboot comes with high expectations and pent up anticipation as Robert Pattinson takes over the title role. Matt Reeves, best known for Cloverfield and the last two Planet of the Apes pics, directs. The supporting cast includes Zoe Kravitz as Catwoman, Paul Dano as the Riddler, Jeffrey Wright as Commissioner Gordon, Andy Serkis as Alfred, and an unrecognizable Colin Farrell as the Penguin. Originally slated for summer 2021, it looks to rule the month of March after its COVID delay.
There is little competition in its way and its event picture status should propel it to huge numbers. How big? The Batman could be in line for a larger opening weekend than 2008’s The Dark Knight ($158 million) and 2012 follow-up The Dark Knight Rises ($160 million). And you may have forgotten that 2016’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice actually holds the highest Bat premiere at $166 million.
Spider-Man: No Way Home showed that moviegoers were more than ready to turn out in force with the right product. Early IMAX offerings have already sold out for opening day. Estimates are wide. It could be as low as $100 million or approach $200 million. I’m thinking $145-$165 million is the likeliest range.
The Batman opening weekend prediction: $155.2 million
Blogger’s Update (02/23): The theater count for Studio 666 has been announced and it’s higher than expected with just over 2300 screens. I’m upping my estimate a bit from $1.4 million to $2.1 million.
As February closes out and we await the massive release of The Batman to begin March, the top five may look the same this weekend. There are two new titles: the musical romantic drama Cyrano with Peter Dinklage and the Foo Fighters led horror comedy Studio 666. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I’ve got both of the newcomers posting debuts in the $2 million range- $1.8 million for Cyrano and $2.1 million for 666. That would put both outside of the top five.
As for the holdovers, the post President’s Day weekend usually sees rather large drops for those returnees. After as its terrific debut (more on that below), Uncharted could be headed for a slide in the 50 percent range with Dog in the low to mid 40s. Spider-Man: No Way Home, Death on the Nile, and Jackass Forever should hold their spots in the 3-5 positions.
So as the Caped Crusader readies for his closeup and a nine figure start (my box office prediction for it will be up tomorrow), here’s how I see things happening this weekend:
1. Uncharted
Predicted Gross: $21.8 million
2. Dog
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $6 million
4. Death on the Nile
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
5. Jackass Forever
Predicted Gross: $2.8 million
Box Office Results (February 18-21)
It’s Tom Holland’s world and we’re just living in it as his adventure flick Uncharted with Mark Wahlberg dominated the four-day holiday frame with a much bigger than anticipated $51.3 million. That blows away my forecast of $33.7 million and shows that its lead’s star power extends beyond him in the Spidey suit. Expect a sequel to be fast tracked.
Channing Tatum received a welcome return after a lengthy starring role absence as his directorial debut Dog took in $17.3 million, lapping my $13.3 million estimate. With an A- Cinemascore grade, this could perform well over subsequent weeks as Tatum has The Lost City lined up with Sandra Bullock a month from now.
That other franchise of Holland’s – Spider-Man: No Way Home – was third with $9.2 million as it swung past my $7.3 million take. At $772 million, it’s perched at #3 domestically all-time.
Death on the Nile stalled in its sophomore frame and fell from first to fourth with $7.7 million (I went higher at $9.8 million). The underwhelming two week total is $26 million.
Jackass Forever was fifth with $6 million (I said $5.7 million) for a three week tally of $47 million.
Finally, Jennifer Lopez’s rom com Marry Me was sixth in its second go-round with $4.3 million compared to my more generous $6 million prediction. It’s made $17 million.
Blogger’s Update (02/23): A higher than expected theater count of just over 2300 screens has been announced. However, I’m not upping my estimate by too much – $1.4 million to $2.1 million.
Dave Grohl and his bandmates take a break from fighting foo to battle evil spirits in Studio 666 this Friday. The comedic horror tale comes from an idea hatched by the Foo Fighters frontman (its existence wasn’t even known until November of last year). B.J. McDonnell directs and the supporting cast (apart from the recently inducted Rock and Roll Hall of Famers) includes Whitney Cummings, Leslie Grossman, Will Forte, Jenna Ortega, and Jeff Garlin.
Distributed by Open Road, I’ve yet to see a reliable theater count for 666 (my forecast could change when I do). While the film’s leads are certainly popular onstage, I question how many of their fans will rush to see them in this. Early reviews are solid with an 83% Rotten Tomatoes score.
This might be the type of project that gets noticed when it’s available for streaming. As far as multiplex business, I’ll project it scares up less than $2 million.
Studio 666 opening weekend prediction: $2.1 million
After premiering at Telluride nearly six months ago, Cyrano has experienced a bumpy ride to multiplexes. From Joe Wright, the latest version of Cyrano de Bergerac features Peter Dinklage in the title role and Haley Bennett, Kelvin Harrison, Jr., and Ben Mendelsohn among the supporting cast.
Festival reviews indicated this could have been an Oscar player and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 87%. However, the musical romance was delayed by MGM from Christmas to the February 25th release. It still managed a brief qualifying run in 2021, but that resulted in a lone Costume Design nod with Dinklage (once thought to a sturdy contender) left out.
With zero awards buzz and a reported screen count of only 750, it seems like the studio is not confident in their product. A gross of approximately $1.5-$2.5 million could mean it won’t even translate to the top five.
The video game adaptation Uncharted with Tom Holland and Mark Wahlberg looks to rule the #1 spot over the four-day President’s Day weekend while Channing Tatum’s directorial debut Dog hopes for a solid second place showing. They’re the newbies coming on Friday and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:
While reviews are mixed (50% currently on Rotten Tomatoes) for Uncharted, it should easily take a commanding lead for the POTUS frame. My low to mid 30s take puts it at about two and half times the gross of Dog, which finds Mr. Tatum in his first starring role in nearly half a decade.
As for holdovers, the long weekend should allow for smallish drop-offs. We’ve seen that play out previously during the mid February time period. Death on the Nile, following its mediocre start, might flirt with staying in double digits (I have it just under) with Spider-Man: No Way Home (that other Holland pic), Marry Me, and Jackass Forever filling out the rest of the chart.
Here’s how I envision the top 6 and these are estimates over the Friday to Monday holiday:
1. Uncharted
Predicted Gross: $33.7 million
2. Dog
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
3. Death on the Nile
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million
5. Marry Me
Predicted Gross: $6 million
6. Jackass Forever
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
Box Office Results (February 11-13)
As mentioned, Kenneth Branagh’s Death on the Nile (his follow-up to 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express) went a bit off the tracks with $12.8 million. That’s shy of my $14.3 million projection and it’s less than half of what Orient accomplished out of the gate.
Jackass Forever dropped to second with $8 million. The 65% drop was the largest of the five picture franchise and under my prediction of $11.3 million. The prankster sequel stands at $37 million after ten days.
Jennifer Lopez and Owen Wilson couldn’t get audiences to fall for them as Marry Me debuted in third with $7.9 million. That didn’t match my expectation of $11.2 million. Its simultaneous Peacock streaming start might have caused many couples to simply view from home.
Spider-Man: No Way Home was fourth with $7.5 million (I said $7.1 million) for $759 million overall. The MCU smash is just $1 million away from Avatar and becoming the third largest domestic earner of all-time (obviously it will hit that mark this week).
Liam Neeson’s latest revenge thriller Blacklight performed in line with his other COVID genre tales Honest Thief and The Marksman. The fifth place tally was $3.5 million, in range with my $3.8 million estimate.
Finally, Moonfall took a giant step down to #8 and fell 70% with $2.9 million in its sophomore outing (I was a little more generous with $3.5 million). Sing 2 and Scream managed to leap it for the sixth and seventh spots. The putrid gross is just $15 million.
After a lengthy hiatus from starring roles, Channing Tatum is back in theaters with Dog on February 18th. He plays a U.S. army ranger tasked with bringing a military pooch to his handler’s funeral. The dramedy also marks Tatum’s debut behind the camera (he co-directs with Reid Carolin). Jane Adams, Kevin Nash, Q’Orianka Kilcher, Ethan Suplee, Emmy Raver-Lampman, and Bill Burr make up the supporting cast.
As mentioned, Tatum’s been on a bit of a hiatus lately. His last headlining role was all the way back in 2017 with Logan Lucky (he did turn up in Free Guy and will be seen next month alongside Sandra Bullock and Brad Pitt in The Lost City).
Looking at potential canine comps, A Dog’s Purpose back in 2017 took in $18 million out of the gate. A Dog’s Way Home made $11 million for its start two years later. One caveat – both were based on novels whereas this Dog is an original concept.
Arriving a year after its COVID delay, Dog will hope to attract a female crowd (thanks to Tatum) and those who just generally like the word “dog” in a film’s title. Over the four-day President’s Day frame, there’s a decent chance this could over perform and possibly get to $20 million (or it could flame out with $10 million). I’m thinking $12-$15 million is most likely.
Dog opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
A popular series of PlayStation games comes to life when Uncharted opens on February 18th. The adventures tale from Zombieland and Venom director Ruben Fleischer features Tom Holland and Mark Wahlberg headlining. Costars include Sophia Ali, Tati Gabrielle, and Antonio Banderas.
Budgeted at a reported $120 million, this should pretty easily top the charts over the long President’s Day weekend. Per usual, it’s undergone a few release date changes in the pandemic era. This time around, the pushback may have helped.
Arriving just two months after Holland’s work as Spider-Man in No Way Home got the box office to unprecedented COVID time levels, audiences may wish to check out his latest potential blockbuster. It doesn’t hurt that gamers could show up too (thought it’s worth mentioning that video game adaptations have a troubled history at multiplexes).
The range for Uncharted is wide. A best case scenario for scenario could be in the $50 million range from Friday to Monday. The floor could be about half of that. I’ll say low to mid 30s is where this ends up.
Uncharted opening weekend prediction: $33.7 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
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