Tag: Box Office

May 5-7 Box Office Predictions

In recent years, the summer movie season officially kicks off when the MCU releases a tentpole adventure. That’s the case in 2023 with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 arriving to end the month long reign of The Super Mario Bros. Movie. We also have rom dramedy Love Again hoping to attract a female audience. My detailed prediction posts on the newbies can be found here:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Box Office Prediction
Love Again Box Office Prediction

Tracking suggests that the third Guardians will fall short of the $146 million opening achieved by its 2017 predecessor, but top the $94 million that the original made way back in 2014. Anything significantly under #2’s start will be considered a letdown and I am projecting a gross $20 million shy of its mark. If that occurs, it would be the second less than anticipated haul for a Marvel pic after Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.

With a billion bucks in the worldwide bank and after four weeks in first, The Super Mario Bros. Movie should at last relinquish the crown. A low 4os dip should put it in the low to mid 20s.

Evil Dead Rise and Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (after a disappointing premiere) should each fall a spot while John Wick: Chapter 4 may remain in fifth position.

That’s assuming Love Again struggles to find its desired audience and I am forecasting that’ll be the scenario. I have it in sixth and it might be lucky to get that much love.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Predicted Gross: $125.3 million

2. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $23.8 million

3. Evil Dead Rise

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

4. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Predicted Gross: $4 million

5. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

6. Love Again

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (April 28-30)

The Super Mario Bros. Movie was #1 for the month of April as it spent a fourth weekend atop the charts with $40.8 million. That’s on pace with my $39.4 million estimate as the Nintendo juggernaut is up to $490 million domestically while crossing a billion worldwide.

Evil Dead Rise, especially for a horror sequel, had a commendable hold in second with $12.1 million, rising beyond my $8.8 million projection. The ten-day haul is an impressive $44 million.

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, the cinematic rendering of Judy Blume’s acclaimed novel, was searching for an audience and came up short. In third place, it made a weak $6.7 million. This is well under my $15.3 million take as it struggled despite mostly rave reviews.

Return of the Jedi celebrated its 40th birthday with a return to approximately 500 screens and added $5.1 million to its coffers for fourth place. I didn’t have it on my radar screen to reach the top five.

John Wick: Chapter 4 was fifth with $4.8 million (I said $4.1 million) to bring its earnings to $176 million after six weeks.

Two other newcomers didn’t make much of a dent. Finnish action pic Sisu was in 10th place with $3.3 million. That’s actually not too shabby given its low 1006 theater count.

Boxing biopic Big George Foreman was knocked out with $2.9 million in 11th place. I thought it would perform better and went with $5.7 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast where I talk all things box office by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite platform! Until next time…

Love Again Box Office Prediction

Sony Pictures is hoping Love Again will capture the hearts of rom com fans and go on to solid earnings when it debuts May 5th. A remake of the 2016 German feature SMS für Dich, James C. Strouse directs the dramedy starring Priyanka Chopra Jonas, Sam Heughan, Russell Tovey, and Celine Dion (who plays a version of herself helping the two leads connect).

At one point titled It’s All Coming Back to Me (after one of Celine’s notable power ballads), Love may find challenges getting audiences coming in. A best case scenario is finding a decent female audience to serve as counter programming to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. That glass half full outlook could get it in high single digits or even $10 million. I’ll say it’ll be lucky to make half of that.

Love Again opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 prediction, click here:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Box Office Prediction

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Box Office Prediction

Nearly three months after Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania couldn’t quite match expectations at the box office, another MCU threequel hopes to exceed them. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 arrives six years after the second volume with James Gunn returning to direct (he has since moved to the DCEU as their head creative honcho). Back in physical and voiceover form are Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, Karen Gillan, Pom Klementieff, Vin Diesel, Bradley Cooper, Sean Gunn, Elizabeth Debcki, and Sylvester Stallone. Will Poulter, Chukwudi Iwuji, and Maria Bakalova are newbies to the franchise. This is the second entry in Marvel’s Phase Five and 32nd feature overall.

2014’s Guardians was a critical and commercial smash that made $94 million for its start with a $333 million eventual domestic take. The goodwill was evident when Vol. 2 kicked off summer 2017 with a $146 million premiere and $389 million overall.

Early buzz is that tracking for the third adventure has been underwhelming. It should certainly surpass the $106 million that Quantumania opened at. Matching the second Guardian‘s haul (or the $144 million that Thor: Love and Thunder made last July) might be more challenging.

If this fails to match what its predecessor accomplished, that would be considered a letdown. I am projecting it will by around $20 million and therefore continue the MCU’s shaky 2023.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 opening weekend prediction: $125.3 million

For my Love Again prediction, click here:

Love Again Box Office Prediction

April 28-30 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (04/26): I am revising my Big George Foreman estimate down from $8.5M to $5.7M

The Super Mario Bros. Movie should have a fourth and final weekend atop the charts before Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 kicks off May and the summer cinematic season. Coming-of-age dramedy Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret and boxing biopic Big George Foreman also the newbies entering the ring. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret Box Office Prediction
Big George Foreman Box Office Prediction

The revolving door at #2 should belong to Margaret, based on the 1970 Judy Blume bestseller. While a gross approaching $20 million is feasible, I’ll say mid teens is where it lands. It will bank on strong holds in its subsequent frames.

As for Big George Foreman, it might find itself in a close race with the second weekend of Evil Dead Rise for third position. I have Rise falling in the low to mid 60s (similar to the 2013 predecessor Evil Dead). If that occurs, it might win a close decision vs. Foreman.

Mario should have no trouble dominating once again and a mid 30s dip would give it just under $40 million in that fourth outing.

Finally, I have holdover John Wick: Chapter 4 in fifth. That slot could go to Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant or Air, though I have Keanu and company experiencing the smallest decline.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $39.4 million

2. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

3. Evil Dead Rise

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

4. Big George Foreman

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

5. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

Box Office Results (April 21-23)

As anticipated, it was a three-peat for The Super Mario Bros. Movie as it collected another $59.9 million in coinage. Blasting beyond my $54.8 million prediction, Illumination’s animated juggernaut has amassed $436 million domestically.

Evil Dead Rise proved there’s no horror fatigue for audiences following recent efforts Scream VI, The Pope’s Exorcist, and Renfield. The fifth pic in the franchise opened with an impressive $24.5 million, elevating past my $16.7 million take. That’s just a shade behind what 2013’s Dead ($25.7 million) kicked off with.

Afghanistan War drama Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant with Jake Gyllenhaal couldn’t fill its theaters with a middling $6.3 million. It did premiere a tad ahead of my $5.6 million forecast, but that’s still an unimpressive result.

John Wick: Chapter 4 was fourth with $5.8 million compared to my $4.7 million projection with $168 million in the coffers.

Fifth place belonged to Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves with $5.5 million (I said $4.3 million) as the franchise hopeful is straining to reach nine digits at $82 million.

Air was sixth with $5.4 million in the third weekend – in line with my $4.6 million guesstimate. Total is $41 million.

Plummeting from 2nd to 7th is The Pope’s Exorcist, falling victim to the power of Evil Dead . Down 62% in its sophomore frame with $3.4 million, I was more generous at $4.6 million. The ten-day tally is $15 million.

The story is similar for Renfield, down 59% in weekend #2 with $3.2 million (I went with $3.9 million). The tepid two-week total is $13 million.

Finally, Beau Is Afraid with Joaquin Phoenix (generating wildly divergent reactions) played well in very limited NY/LA showings last weekend. Yet it stumbled in wider release. The multi-genre odyssey made $2.7 million on just under 1000 screens. I was higher at $4.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

And in the meantime, listen to my box office thoughts on your favorite podcast platform by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation!

Big George Foreman Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (04/26): I am revising my estimate down from $8.5M to $5.7M

Big George Foreman enters the box office ring on April 28th from George Tillman Jr. (who recently directed Notorious and The Hate U Give). The sports biopic stars Khris Davis as the two-time boxing champ and grill master. Jasmine Mathews, John Magaro, Sullivan Jones, and Forest Whitaker are in the supporting cast.

Sony Pictures is hoping audiences are ready for another tale of the sweet science shortly after the success of Creed III. With a lack of star power and not much in the way of buzz, Foreman may struggle to reach $10 million in the first weekend. I’ll project it falls a bit shy for a performance that’s no knockout. It does get credit for having a ridiculously lengthy full title – The Miraculous Story of the Once and Future Heavyweight Champion of the World.

Big George Foreman opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million

For my Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret prediction, click here:

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret Box Office Prediction

Beau Is Afraid Box Office Prediction

After a sizzling limited release last weekend, Ari Aster’s Beau Is Afraid expands to just under 1000 screens this Friday. A mix of many genres from the director known for horror pics Hereditary and Midsommar, Joaquin Phoenix stars as a paranoid man on odyssey while dealing with severe mommy issues. Costars include Patti LuPone, Nathan Lane, Amy Rogers, Kylie Rogers, Parker Posey, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Hayley Squires, Michael Gandolfini, Zoe Lister-Jones, and Richard Kind.

Some critics have been quite kind and it sits at 74% on Rotten Tomatoes. Others have called the three-hour opus a slog and predicted that general audiences are likely to have strong negative feelings. Beau scored $320,000 on just four screens days ago for a per theater average of $80k. It’s not surprising that it performed splendidly in NY/LA.

Beau faces more challenging prospects as it plays between the coasts. While it will probably have the third best screen average behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Evil Dead Rise (though the average could top that one), a gross between $4-5 million is likely.

Beau Is Afraid expanded opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million

For my Evil Dead Rise prediction, click here:

Evil Dead Rise Box Office Prediction

For my Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant prediction, click here:

Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant Box Office Prediction

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate is hoping audiences will be there for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret when it opens April 28th. The coming-of-age dramedy is based on the well-known 1970 novel from Judy Blume. Kelly Fremon Craig, who wrote and directed 2016’s acclaimed The Edge of Seventeen, is behind the camera. Abby Ryder Fortson stars in the title role with Jennifer Garner, Benny Safdie, and Kathy Bates in the supporting cast.

Despite the popularity of its source material, author Blume held onto the film rights for over half a century. Margaret will attempt to bring in a wide female audiences whose familiarity with the book spans generations. Some early prognoses have this potentially reaching $20 million. I’ll say low to mid teens is where this lands.

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret opening weekend prediction: $15.3 million

For my Big George Foreman prediction, click here:

Big George Foreman Box Office Prediction

April 21-23 Box Office Predictions

The Super Mario Bros. Movie should rule the charts for a third weekend as Evil Dead Rise and Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant open in wide release. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Evil Dead Rise Box Office Prediction
Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant Box Office Prediction

Evil Dead Rise appears headed for a second place showing. However, the fifth pic in the horror franchise that started over 40 years ago is unlikely to match the mid-twenties haul that its 2013 predecessor managed. That’s despite strong reviews. Some recent horror saturation might mean a low to mid teens premiere.

As for Afghanistan War drama The Covenant with Jake Gyllenhaal, this is a genre that often struggles for eyeballs. It could certainly outpace my mid single digits projection (which should still be good for third), but my gut says this won’t impress.

Spots 4-8 should be holdovers whose difference could be less than a million bucks. I have John Wick: Chapter 4 leading that group with Renfield having the biggest percentage drop and coming in 8th.

Some other notes before I get to the power player. The historical drama Chevalier is slated to come out on around 1200 screens. I think the ceiling could be $2.5 million and I didn’t do an individual post for it.

Then there’s Beau is Afraid. Ari Aster’s three-hour opus with Joaquin Phoenix is garnering some raves and some derision from critics. It had a sizzling limited debut on only 4 screens. Beau is opening wider this weekend, but I’ve yet to see a theater count. Depending on how many venues it’s playing in, it could pop up in the top 5. However, I can’t make an educated guesstimate (yet) until I see a number. **Update (04/19): I’ve now done a prediction for this since a theater count is released:

Beau Is Afraid Box Office Prediction

As for the third frame of Mario, I’ve got it falling in the high 30s to low 40s for a mid to high 5os gross. My prediction gives it the ninth best third weekend of all time after it just had the seventh largest second one. I’ll give this caveat: I’ve been low for two weeks in a row on this pic.

So with all that said, here’s my look at the top 8:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $54.8 million

2. Evil Dead Rise

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

3. Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

4. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

5. The Pope’s Exoricst

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. Air

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

**7. Beau is Afraid

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million (ADDED PREDICTION**)

8. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

9. Renfield

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

Box Office Results (April 14-16)

It’s a Nintendo Cinematic Universe and we’re just living in it as The Super Mario Bros. Movie once again exceeded expectations in its sophomore frame. Illumination’s animated phenomenon piped in another $92.3 million, far exceeding my $74.9 million take. The two-week tally is an astonishing $353 million. There is a real possibility that this could end up as the highest domestic grosser of 2023.

Russell Crowe’s horror tale The Pope’s Exorcist surprisingly was second with $9 million, edging past my $7.4 million forecast. With a reported $18 million budget, that’s not too shabby though hardly glorious.

John Wick: Chapter 4 was third with $8 million (in range with my $8.4 million call). It’s up to $160 million after 4 weeks.

Spooky comedy Renfield with Nicolas Cage as Dracula was anticipated to see second place, but it wasn’t to be. The fourth place showing at $8 million fell below my $12.2 million estimate. With a fairly sucky B- Cinemascore, look for it to fade quickly.

Air was fifth with $7.8 million in its second weekend. I thought it would hold better and went with $9.5 million. Nevertheless its $33 million total thus far is solid for an adult drama.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was sixth with $7.5 million (I said $6.9 million) for a so-so $74 million after three weeks.

Toho’s Japanese animated fantasy Suzume couldn’t live up to previous titles from the distributor. It was seventh with $5 million and I was more generous at $8.7 million.

I never did an official prediction for Mafia Mamma with Toni Collette, but I said the poorly reviewed comedy would be lucky to make $2 million. Well, I guess it was lucky because that’s exactly what it did for 8th.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

***In the meantime, catch my weekly podcast talking box office at Movies at the Speed of Speculation (wherever you stream!).

Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant Box Office Prediction

Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant finds Jake Gyllenhaal back in Jarhead territory in this war thriller. It marks Ritchie’s second release of 2023 after Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre flopped last month. Formerly titled The Interpreter, costars include Dar Salim, Alexander Ludwig, Antony Starr, Emily Beecham, and Jonny Lee Miller.

Gyllenhaal’s previous action flick was a year ago with Ambulance. It performed below expectations with an $8.6 million start. Ritchie’s aforementioned Guerre managed only $3 million in its unfortunate opening.

The Covenant doesn’t seem to be generating much buzz. I think it’ll have a higher premiere than the director’s last effort, but lower than its lead’s predecessor.

Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million

For my Evil Dead Rise prediction, click here:

Evil Dead Rise Box Office Prediction

For my Beau Is Afraid prediction, click here:

Beau Is Afraid Box Office Prediction

Evil Dead Rise Box Office Prediction

Evil Dead Rise books passage into multiplexes ten years after Sam Raimi’s franchise was rebooted the first time around to lively box office results. Like its 2013 predecessor (which this is not a sequel to), it premiered to praise at South by Southwest in March. Lee Cronin directs a cast including Lily Sullivan, Alyssa Sutherland, and Morgan Davies.

The original Evil Dead from 1981, its 1987 sequel, and 1993’s Army of Darkness from Raimi and star Bruce Campbell are horror comedy classics with deeply devoted followings. When Fede Álvarez’s reboot arrived a decade ago, it received some criticism for lacking the humor of the original trilogy. Nevertheless it debuted to $25 million and that turned out to be a front loaded start as it ended with $54 million domestically.

Rise‘s reviews are far stronger with a Rotten Tomateos score of 94% (compared to 63% for 2013’s effort). While audiences have certainly seen their share of the genre as of late with Scream VI, Renfield, and The Pope’s Exorcist, the brand name and solid buzz might mean $20 million plus is doable. That said, the market is feeing oversaturated and low to mid teens could be the result.

Evil Dead Rise opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million

For my Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant prediction, click here:

Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant Box Office Prediction

For my Beau Is Afraid prediction, click here:

Beau Is Afraid Box Office Prediction