Tag: Box Office

June 16-18 Box Office Predictions

A trio of newcomers hits multiplexes this weekend with the much-publicized DCEU adventure The Flash, Pixar’s Elemental, and horror spoof The Blackening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

The Flash Box Office Prediction
Elemental Box Office Prediction
The Blackening Box Office Prediction

There’s little question that The Flash will bolt to #1. The question is with how much. While I don’t see it reaching nine figures, I do believe $80-90 million is within reach. It is worth noting that fresh tracking shows it could fall short of that number so keep an eye on my blog this week to see if I maintain my rosy outlook.

I don’t have a flowery vision for how Elemental will perform. After Pixar experienced a high-profile flop last summer with Lightyear, their latest could find itself in a battle with fellow animated pic Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (in its third frame) for #2. I’ll give Elemental the slight benefit of the doubt, but not by much.

Spider-Verse should only drop a spot because I believe it’ll see around a 50% fall. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts significantly exceeded my projection (more on that below). Yet it could dip in the mid 60s and that would mean a slide from 1st to 4th.

The Little Mermaid should round out the top five with a 40% drop and that brings us to The Blackening. The scary parody is reported to release in only about 1800 venues and that could limit the potential. I’ll say it doesn’t hit $10 million and is in sixth.

And with that, here’s how I envision that top 6:

1. The Flash

Predicted Gross: $83.2 million

2. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million

4. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million

5. The Little Mermaid

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

6. The Blackening

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

Box Office Results (June 9-11)

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts couldn’t match the $100M+ earnings of early franchise entries. However, it did blast past my prediction with $61 million compared to my measly $42.2 million call. That’s on the top end of its anticipated range and, like other Transformers pics, it should perform well overseas. There might just be a little juice left in the series.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse had a sturdy hold of 54% in its sophomore weekend with $55.5 million, a bit under my $58.4 million forecast. The acclaimed sequel has amassed $225 million in ten days.

The Little Mermaid was third with $23.1 million (on target with my $22.5 million take) for $229 million in three weeks.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was fourth with $7.2 million (I said $6.6 million) for an overall haul of $335 million.

Finally, The Boogeyman held up stronger in weekend #2 that I assumed with $7.1 million. I went lower at $5.8 million. The two-week tally is a so-so $24 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Blackening Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate would love to see The Blackening post Scary Movie style numbers when it debuts June 16th. That’s probably wishful thinking. The horror parody comes from Tim Story, who directed Barbershop, 2005 and 2007’s Fantastic Four pics, and the two Ride Along action comedies. Grace Byers, Jermaine Fowler, Melvin Gregg, X Mayo, Dewayne Perkins (who co-scripted), Antoinette Robertson, Sinqua Walls, Jay Pharoah, and Yvonne Orji are among the cast.

When this screened at the Toronto Film Festival way back in September, early word-of-mouth was pretty encouraging. That said, comedies in general have failed to cash in over the past several years. Over the Memorial Day weekend, both The Machine and About My Father didn’t break out.

The Blackening could surprise if African-American audiences and horror fans turn out. If they do, an opening of over $10 million could be achievable. Given the genre’s struggles, I’ll put it under. Another limiting factor could be the reported smallish screen count of 1800 venues.

The Blackening opening weekend prediction: $7.7 million

For my The Flash prediction, click here:

The Flash Box Office Prediction

For my Elemental prediction, click here:

Elemental Box Office Prediction

Elemental Box Office Prediction

Disney/Pixar hopes the elements are there for a hit when Elemental debuts on June 16th. The 27th feature from the studio comes from director Peter Sohn, who made a rare Pixar disappointment in 2015’s The Good Dinosaur. Voiceover artists include Leah Lewis, Mamoudou Athie, Ronnie del Carmen, Shila Ommi, Wendi McLendon-Covey, Catherine O’Hara, Joe Pera, and Matt Yang King.

Four years ago, Toy Story 4 took in over $400 million domestically. It’s been a rather unimpressive run for the Mouse Factory’s nearly 30-year-old production company since. Onward debuted to $39 million and that figure was likely low since it opened in March of 2020 just as COVID shutdowns were beginning. Soul, Luca, and Turning Red went the Disney Plus route due to the pandemic. Last summer’s Lightyear was a high profile flop with a $50 million premiere and $118 million eventual stateside gross (well under expectations).

I don’t see Elemental reversing the downturn. Some youngsters will be preoccupied with The Flash or maybe they’ll go see Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse again. Reviews won’t get audiences to rush out either as the Rotten Tomatoes is 63% (low for Pixar).

Add all that up and I think this will be lucky to get past $35 million.

Elemental opening weekend prediction: $30.6 million

For my The Flash prediction, click here:

The Flash Box Office Prediction

For my The Blackening prediction, click here:

The Blackening Box Office Prediction

The Flash Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s Update (06/13): I’m revised my prediction down from $90.2 million to $83.2 million**

Warner Bros hopes for the 13th DCEU picture is lucky at the box office as The Flash bolts into multiplexes on June 16th. It’s been a bumpy ride to the big screen between COVID delays and Ezra Miller (playing the title character) and their personal troubles. Andy Muschietti, who made the two It chapters, directs. Michael Keaton and Ben Affleck reprise their roles as Batman with Sasha Calle debuting as Supergirl. Costars include Michael Shannon (reprising his General Zod role from Man of Steel), Ron Livingston, Maribel Verdú, Kiersey Clemons, Antje Traue, and Jeremy Irons. Expect other noteworthy cameos.

The DCEU has had a rough go lately. Their last two titles, Black Adam and Shazam! Fury of the Gods, were significant financial disappointments. James Gunn and Peter Safran were recently tapped to run the struggling franchise. The Flash hopes to right the ship. The first four entries in the series (Man of Steel, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, Suicide Squad, Wonder Woman) all grossed $100 million plus in their debut weekends. The next eight movies did not with the second Shazam! only taking in $30 million out of the gate.

Reviews are fairly positive with a 71% Rotten Tomatoes score at press time. If you subscribe to the all publicity is good publicity notion, the negative ink surrounding its lead shouldn’t hinder its potential (and the studio is keeping Miller off the circuit). While The Flash isn’t as iconic a character as the Caped Crusader, the reemergence of Keaton as that character could draw in viewers for a nostalgia fix (it’s been over 30 years since he’s donned the Batsuit).

A best case scenario is The Flash achieving the second best start of 2023 and topping the $120 million that Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse achieved. The worst case result could be not reaching nine figures like those first four superhero tales. That might be the case and it could end up falling outside the top five openings of 2023 (under the $95 million of The Little Mermaid). My forecast puts this on pace with the $93 million that Justice League made back in 2017 (where Miller first fleshed out this character).

The Flash opening weekend prediction: $83.2 million

For my Elemental prediction, click here:

Elemental Box Office Prediction

For my The Blackening prediction, click here:

The Blackening Box Office Prediction

June 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts will attempt to topple Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, but that could be a tall order. Beasts is the sole wide release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Box Office Prediction

The seventh entry in the franchise based on the Hasbro toy line will not have the lowest start of the bunch. That belongs and will continue to belong to Bumblebee which started with $21 million over the holidays in 2018. It may, however, have the second smallest if it fails to exceed the $44 million three-day premiere that Transformers: The Last Knight had in the summer of 2017. I am projecting it will fall under that mark.

That should leave Across the Spider-Verse in first position after an amazing rollout this past weekend (more on that below). While I think the sophomore frame dip will be more than 50%, I believe a high 50s gross will comfortably leave it atop the charts.

Holdovers will fill slots 3-5. The Little Mermaid, after an expectedly hefty second weekend fall, should level off and get above $20 million in weekend 3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 may remain fourth since it shouldn’t see a percentage drop as large as The Boogeyman‘s in its second outing.

And with that, here’s how I envision the top five:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $58.4 million

2. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

Predicted Gross: $42.2 million

3. The Little Mermaid

Predicted Gross: $22.5 million

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

5. The Boogeyman

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

Box Office Results (June 2-4)

Swinging the #2 best premiere of 2023 behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie was Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. That’s also the seventh highest animated opening ever. It built upon the goodwill from its 2018 Oscar-winning predecessor and made off with $120.6 million. That’s well beyond my projection of $96.4 million. Look for it to play well throughout the season (and it’s certainly the frontrunner to win Best Animated Feature next year).

The Little Mermaid slipped to second with $41.3 million in its sophomore frame, on track with my $40.5 million take. The ten-day gross for the live-action Disney remake is $186 million. That’s pretty decent, but its overseas earnings are underwhelming.

PG-13 horror flick The Boogeyman, based on a Stephen King short story, couldn’t pick up buzz as Spidey sucked up all the oxygen. It made $12.3 million for third, falling below my $17.7 million prediction.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was fourth with $10.6 million (I said $9.6 million) as the MCU threequel is up to $323 million after five weeks.

Fast X rounded out the top five with $9.5 million compared to my $10.1 million forecast. It’s doing better internationally, but the three-week $128 million domestic haul is unimpressive.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Box Office Prediction

Representing the longest drought between entries, it’s been nearly four and a half years without Optimus onscreen. Paramount is hoping audiences will be primed for the franchise’s return as Transformers: Rise of the Beasts debuts on June 9th. This is the seventh installment of the series that started in 2007 with Michael Bay helming the first five. He produces while Steven Caple Jr. (best known for Creed II) directs. The non-voiceover cast includes Anthony Ramos, Dominique Fishback, Luna Lauren Vélez, Tobe Ngigwe, and Michael Kelly. Those voices behind the various title bots include Peter Cullen, Ron Perlman, Peter Dinklage, Michelle Yeoh, Lisa Koshy, Michaela Jaé Rodriguez, Pete Davidson, Colman Domingo, John DiMaggio, and David Sobolov.

Beasts serves as a direct follow-up to 2018’s Bumblebee and a prequel to editions I-V. The Transformers pics have certainly seen their fortunes fade in recent years. Domestically the peak was Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, which earned $402 million overall stateside. The first three titles all grossed north of $300 million. By 2017, Transformers: The Last Knight managed $130 million. Bumblebee was a smidge under at $127 million.

To be fair, expectations for Bumblebee weren’t nearly as high and it rode decent reviews and solid buzz to a commendable leg out over the holidays. The lengthy break may not help Beasts and there’s no returning human stars from previous adventures.

This only needs to top $21 million to avoid a franchise low three-day beginning. It should have no trouble there. The better comp is probably The Last Knight which premiered with $44 million for its Friday to Sunday take (though it made $68 million when you count its Wednesday start). I’ll say Beasts falls a bit shy of that.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts opening weekend prediction: $42.2 million

June 2-4 Box Office Predictions

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swings into multiplexes for a highly likely first place debut while The Boogeyman lurks for a start in third position. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Box Office Prediction
The Boogeyman Box Office Prediction

Spidey is the follow-up to 2018’s Oscar-winning animated adventure Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. In addition to plenty of awards, it had an A+ Cinemascore grade and nearly $200 million in domestic sales. Anticipation should be elevated for the sequel (with part 3 coming next year). That’s why some estimates have this as lofty as $100 million. I’m a tad more conservative, but I’ll say it clears $90 million.

The Boogeyman should take advantage of its PG-13 rating, the connection to Stephen King for the source material, and that there’s been a slight lull between horror flicks. Heck – it probably helps that it’s called The Boogeyman. I could see this opening similarly to The Black Phone and Smile. That would mean high teens or low 20s for a solid third place showing.

Memorial Day weekend champ The Little Mermaid should drop to second after a mixed bag of a debut (more on that below). A mid 50s dip (similar to the live-action Aladdin four years ago) would mean a number slightly north of $40 million.

The 4-5 slots should belong to sequel holdovers Fast X and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. It could be a close race between the two as they each may earn a tad over $10 million.

Here’s how I see it looking:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $96.4 million

2. The Little Mermaid

Predicted Gross: $40.5 million

3. The Boogeyman

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million

4. Fast X

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

Box Office Results (May 26-29)

As expected, Disney’s The Little Mermaid (updating the 1989 classic) swam to the top of the charts. It did so on the lower end of its expected range. Over the four-day holiday, the total was $118.8 million. That’s below my take of $132.1 million. While nowhere near the starts of Beauty and the Beast or The Lion King from 2017 and 2019, it is on pace with what Aladdin accomplished over Memorial Day four years back.

Fast X slipped to second with $28.5 million and that managed to exceed my $25.4 million estimate. Vin Diesel and company have seen the beginning to the end of their two-decade long franchise earn $113 million thus far.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was third with $26.8 million, on target with my $26 million call. The MCU threequel stands at $306 million.

The Super Mario Bros. Movie took fourth place with $8.2 million (I said $7.6 million) to bring its massive haul to $560 million.

Spots 5-7, as anticipated, went to three newcomers. I didn’t correctly call their placements. The Machine with popular standup and podcaster Bert Kreischer was fifth with $5.8 million, ahead of my $3.7 million forecast. While not spectacular, it’s on the better end of its predicted range.

About My Father, featuring another popular standup Sebastian Maniscalco alongside Robert De Niro, was on the lesser end of the range. The family comedy was sixth with $5.3 million. I said a touch more at $6.2 million.

Finally, Gerard Butler’s action pic Kandahar bombed in seventh with only $2.8 million. I was more generous at $4.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast where I discuss all things box office by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you like to stream. Until next time…

The Boogeyman Box Office Prediction

20th Century Studios is hoping plenty of viewers will be creeped out by The Boogeyman on June 2nd. The PG-13 horror pic is based on a half century old short story by Stephen King with Rob Savage directing. Cast members include Sophie Thatcher (no relation that I’m aware of), Chris Messina, Vivien Lyra Blair, and David Dastmalchian.

Budgeted at just over $40 million, this was originally slated for a streaming premiere on Hulu. Encouraging test screenings changed the plan and now it’s being unveiled in approximately 3000 venues.

This genre has seen its share of successes as of late. There are two comps from 2022 that seem appropriate. The Black Phone was a summer release with some similar themes and based on a novel by King’s son Joe Hill. It started off with $23.6 million. Last fall’s Smile is similar in the sense that it was supposed to roll out on Paramount+ and the pattern was altered due to its positive audience scores. A $22.6 million debut was the result.

The Rotten Tomatoes score is 64%. While under the 83% of Phone and 79% from Smile, that’s just fine to keep the buzz decent. I can’t find a compelling reason why this wouldn’t hit the mid to high teens or low 20s as well.

The Boogeyman opening weekend prediction: $17.7 million

For my Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse prediction, click here:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Box Office Prediction

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Box Office Prediction

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swings into multiplexes on June 2nd and hopes to start the month off on a high note. The animated sequel is the follow-up to 2018’s Into the Spider-Verse, which drew widespread critical acclaim resulting in a Best Animated Feature Oscar. It also grossed nearly $200 million domestically and $384 million worldwide.

There’s a trio of directors in Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, and Justin K. Thompson. Shameik Moore is back behind the mic as Miles/Spidey. Other performers voicing additional versions of the hero and other characters include Hailee Steinfeld (back as Spider-Woman), Brian Tyree Henry, Luna Lauren Velez, Jake Johnson, Jason Schwartzman, Issa Rae, Karan Soni, Daniel Kaluuya, Oscar Isaac, Greta Lee, Shea Whigham, and Andy Samberg.

Parts 2 and 3 of the franchise were assembled at the same time. Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse is slated for March 2024. In December 2018, part 1 started out with $35 million before legging out impressively to a $190 million stateside haul. Achieving a rare A+ Cinemascore rating, it stands to reason that audiences should be pumped for the sequel.

In the summer (as opposed to December), tentpoles are expected to post a gigantic opening immediately. Some forecasts have their projection as rosy as $120 million. That’s certainly possible, but I’ll temper expectations a bit and say $90-100 million is probably where this Verse starts.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse opening weekend prediction: $96.4 million

For my The Boogeyman prediction, click here:

The Boogeyman Box Office Prediction

May 26-29 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (05/24): I am revising my Kandahar prediction from $7.9 million to $4.2 million

Disney is hoping for a memorable holiday weekend as The Little Mermaid surfaces over the long frame. We have three other newcomers with Gerard Butler’s action thriller Kandahar, the father/son comedy About My Father with standup comic Sebastian Maniscalco and icon Robert De Niro, and the father/son comedy The Machine featuring standup comic Bert Kreischer and icon Mark Hamill. My detailed prediction posts on the quartet of newcomers can be accessed here:

The Little Mermaid Box Office Prediction
Kandahar Box Office Prediction
About My Father Box Office Prediction
The Machine Box Office Prediction

There’s no doubt that Mermaid will bubble up to the #1 spot. The mystery is the number. While I don’t think it reaches the heights of other Mouse Factory live-action remakes like Beauty and the Beast and The Lion King, I do think it exceed the 2019 Memorial Day take of Aladdin. That said – there’s a wide range of possibility and my estimate is admittedly on the higher end compared to some others.

The real battle might be for the runner-up position. Fast X came in below its predecessor F9 (more on that below). It also received the same so-so B+ Cinemascore grade. A drop to the mid or high 20s could put it slightly behind the fourth weekend of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, which held impressively in the second and third outings. I’m going to give Star-Lord and company the slight edge over Vin Diesel and his cinematic family.

Butler has shown the ability to get his action flicks past $10 million and into the teens, but I’m not seeing much buzz for Kandahar. I’ll say it just reaches fourth place over The Super Mario Bros. Movie.

As you can tell from the descriptions, About My Father and The Machine have a lot in common. Both are tests for their leading men Maniscalco and Kreischer in their first headlining roles. Comedies have struggled at multiplexes lately and I believe these will. I think Father has a bit more broad appeal and I’ll give it sixth with The Machine trailing behind.

And with that, here’s how I envision the Friday to Monday Memorial weekend:

1. The Little Mermaid

Predicted Gross: $132.1 million

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Predicted Gross: $26 million

3. Fast X

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

4. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. About My Father

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

6. Kandahar

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

7. The Machine

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

Box Office Results (May 19-21)

Fast X continued the diminishing returns of the franchise though its dip wasn’t too far off from F9. The tenth pic in the 22-year-old series made $67 million (F9 did $70M) and that’s right in line with my $67.8 million prediction. As mentioned, I look for a hefty fall coming up. Luckily for Universal, the overseas grosses are solid (they need to be considering the reported $340 million sticker price).

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was second after two weeks on top with $32.4 million, on pace my with $33.5 million take. The three-week total is $266 million and, per above, I think it could stay parked in the runner-up position over the holiday.

The Super Mario Bros. Movie made $9.6 million for third compared to my $8.3 million forecast. The remarkable seven-week earnings are $549 million.

Book Club: The Next Chapter, after a poor debut, tumbled 55% in fourth with $3 million (I said $3.2 million). The rom com sequel has made a mere $13 million in ten days.

Finally, Evil Dead Rise was fifth with $2.4 million. My projection? $2.4 million! The horror pic has amassed $64 million in five weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast… or Toddcast as I call it… by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite streaming platform. Until next time…