Tag: Box Office

Box Office Predictions: August 29-September 1

The fall movie season officially kicks off this Labor Day weekend with two new entries: the horror flick As Above, So Below and Pierce Brosnan spy thriller The November Man. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/24/as-above-so-below-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/24/the-november-man-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m predicting neither of the newbies will add much firepower to the box office. That leaves August’s megahits Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles likely to continue their reign at the top two positions. Keep in mind that my weekend projections this time around are for the four day holiday weekend and that means holdover pics often see an increase in dollars compared to the previous weekend. That holds true with my estimates for Guardians, TMNT, If I Stay, When the Game Stands Tall, and Let’s Be Cops.

And with that – we’ll do Top Seven predictions for the Labor Day frame:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Gross: $21.1 million (representing an increase of 23%)

2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million (representing an increase of 16%)

3. If I Stay

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million (representing an increase of 11%)

4. As Above, So Below

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

5. Let’s Be Cops

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing an increase of 6%)

6. When the Game Stands Tall

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing an increase of 19%)

7. The November Man

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (Friday to Monday projection), $11 million (Wednesday to Monday projection)

Box Office Results (August 22-24)

As the summer movie season drew to a close, there were two big stories: Guardians of the Galaxy became the season’s biggest grosser and Sin City: A Dame to Kill For had one of the worst debuts in recent memory.

Marvel’s Guardians vaulted back to the #1 spot after two weeks behind Ninja Turtles. The blockbuster took in $17.2 million, outshining my $15M estimate. It’s taken in $251 million so far and therefore passed Transformers: Age of Extinction as the King of Summer Movies.

Ninja Turtles slipped to second with $16.7 million, holding up considerably better than my $12.7M prediction. In three weeks, the reboot has amassed $145 million and it should surpass $175M when all is said and done.

The YA pic If I Stay got off to a decent start with $15.6 million – ahead of my $12.1M projection. Many prognosticators had it opening #1, but two teams of venerable superheroes prevented that from happening.

Somewhat surprisingly, Let’s Be Cops only dropped a respectable 39% in its sophomore frame and placed fourth with $10.8 million. I incorrectly didn’t place it in the top five and its two week total stands at $45M. It should reach $75M, which is great considering its meager budget.

The sports drama When the Game Stands Tall earned $8.3 million for a fair fifth place opening, right in range with my $9M projection. With a solid A- Cinemascore grade, it should hold up well next weekend.

And this brings us to Sin City: A Dame to Kill For. Let’s get this out of the way: I had it opening #1 with $20.8 million. Ummm…. oops!

Arriving nearly ten years after the original, Dame performed a fantastically bad box office belly flop with only $6.3 million for a pathetic eighth place debut. Simply put, even though the first was generally well-received, its sequel registered barely any audience interest. Dame easily qualifies as one of 2014’s biggest bombs.

And that’s all for now, folks!

 

The November Man Box Office Prediction

Pierce Brosnan is back in spy mode with The November Man, which debuts Wednesday before the long Labor Day weekend. It seems unlikely that this will approach anywhere near the numbers Brosnan enjoyed with his more known spy character, James Bond.

The star reunites with his Dante’s Peak director Roger Donaldson and costars with Olga Kurlylenko, who appeared alongside Daniel Craig’s 007 in Quantum of Solace. The studio is hoping that audiences are primed to see Pierce return to the kind of role people most identify him with, but there are troubling signs. Reviews have been bad and The November Man currently stands at only 17% on Rotten Tomatoes. This should contribute to negative word of mouth.

As I see it, the pic should struggle to make double digits in its six day rollout and The November Man should fade fast and be available for home viewing by its title month.

The November Man opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million (Friday to Monday estimate), $11 million (Wednesday to Monday estimate)

For my As Above, So Below prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/24/as-above-so-below-box-office-prediction/

As Above, So Below Box Office Prediction

It’s been a shaky year, to say the least, for horror flicks and this Labor Day weekend – the found footage pic As Above, So Below will attempt to reverse that trend. The film showcases American tourists exploring the catacombs in Paris with haunting results. There have yet to be many reviews, but the ones available don’t inspire much confidence.

As Above, So Below appears unlikely to inject some much needed energy to horror genre. Still, it should manage a double digit debut – especially over the four-day holiday weekend. I don’t believe, however, that Below will end up opening above what the Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles manage to gross next weekend.

As Above, So Below opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The November Man prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/24/the-november-man-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: August 22-24

This weekend three new pictures will try to unseat Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy, which have held the 1-2 positions for the past two weeks. They are Sin City: A Dame to Kill For, following its predecessor by nearly a decade, YA pic If I Stay, and sports drama When the Game Stands Tall. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/sin-city-a-dame-to-kill-for-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/if-i-stay-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/when-the-game-stands-tall-box-office-prediction/

I believe Sin City will do well enough to top the charts and don’t expect much out of Stay or Game, which I have opening at four and five. If either of those newbies go below my estimates, it may allow holdovers Let’s Be Cops or The Expendables 3 to remain in the top five. However, my projections do not reflect that. I’m also predicting that Guardians will remain at the #2 spot due to a lower percentage drop than Turtles.

And with that – my top five estimates for the weekend:

1. Sin City: A Dame to Kill For

Predicted Gross: $20.8 million

2. Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Gross: $15 million (representing a drop of 40%)

3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)

4. If I Stay

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

5. When the Game Stands Tall

Predicted Gross: $9 million

Box Office Results (August 15-17)

As predicted, holdovers Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy remained atop the charts. TMNT stayed first for its second weekend with $28.5 million, holding up slightly better than my $25.7M estimate. The successful franchise reboot has earned $117 million so far and should reach close to $175M. Guardians took in $25.1 million in weekend 3, barely topping my $24.1M projection. The Marvel juggernaut stands at $222 million and is on its way to be 2014’s highest grosser… until Mockingjay – Part 1 is unleashed.

The poorly reviewed comedy Let’s Be Cops got off to a decent start with $17.8 million over the traditional weekend and $26.2 million since its Wednesday debut. Its Friday to Sunday take was right in line with my $17.7M prediction while its five-day was higher than my $23.4M guesstimate. With a weak B Cinemascore grade, expect Cops to fade quickly though.

Bad box office news keeps on coming for Sylvester Stallone as The Expendables 3 bombed with only $15.8 million, below my $21.5M prediction. The all-star action franchise has clearly lost its steam and a fourth entry seems doubtful at this juncture.

The YA adaption The Giver with Jeff Bridges and Meryl Streep had a lackluster result with $12.3 million – though it did exceed my $11M projection.

And that’s all for now, folks!

 

When the Game Stands Tall Box Office Prediction

The sports drama When the Game Stands Tall opens Friday, in conjunction with football season starting up. Inspired by a true story, the TriStar release focuses on a high school’s team 151 game winning streak and stars Jim Caviezel, Laura Dern, and Michael Chiklis. Thomas Carter, who directed one successful similar genre pic Coach Carter with Samuel L. Jackson, is behind the camera.

Earlier this summer, another sports pic Million Dollar Arm starring Jon Hamm, stumbled out of the gate with only a $10.5 million opening. That picture had Disney behind it and a more recognizable star. If Arm performed badly, it’s tough to see how this breaks through with audiences. Unless the timing of its release helps, Tall is probably primed for a subpar opening. There’s also the issue of many high school football fans might, you know, actually be watching a high school football game this Friday night.

When the Game Stands Tall opening weekend prediction: $9 million

For my Sin City: A Dame to Kill For prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/sin-city-a-dame-to-kill-for-box-office-prediction/

For my If I Stay prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/if-i-stay-box-office-prediction/

If I Stay Box Office Prediction

Summit Entertainment is the studio de jour for young adult flicks and they’ve got another one this Friday with If I Stay, based on the novel by Gayle Forman. The film centers on a teen played by Chloe Grace Moritz of Kick Ass fame dealing with love and loss and is directed by R.J. Cutler, who seems a bit out of his element because he’s known more for making political documentaries.

If I Stay would love to follow in the footsteps of an earlier pic this summer, The Fault in Our Stars. That seems unlikely to occur as it’s been curiously under marketed and the late summer release is often somewhat of a dumping ground for studios. If Stay can debut above $15 million, the studio should consider that a success. I wonder if it will even manage double digits. My prediction is that it will get there, but not by much and my estimate puts it in the same range as another YA movie, The Giver, from this past weekend.

If I Stay opening weekend prediction: $12.1 million

For my Sin City: A Dame to Kill For prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/sin-city-a-dame-to-kill-for-box-office-prediction/

For my When the Game Stands Tall prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/when-the-game-stands-tall-box-office-prediction/

 

Sin City: A Dame to Kill For Box Office Prediction

Nearly ten years after its predecessor performed solidly at the box office, Sin City: A Dame to Kill For makes it theatrical debut Friday. Original directors Robert Rodriguez and Frank Miller are back behind the camera, based on Miller’s work from his acclaimed graphic novel. Several stars of the 2005 pic return – including Jessica Alba, Bruce Willis, Rosario Dawson, Mickey Rourke, Powers Boothe and Jaime King. Newcomers to the sequel include Joseph Gordon Levitt, Josh Brolin, Lady Gaga, Dennis Haysbert, Christopher Lloyd, Ray Liotta, and Jeremy Piven.

It was the spring of 2005 when Sin City did great business of the gate domestically with $29 million. However, it would suffer large declines in subsequent weekends and its final gross was a respectable $74 million. The big question is whether too much time has passed for audiences to really be clamoring for a sequel?

I have my doubts. The original was mostly well-received and there will be some who are excited to see it (myself included). However, the near decade long wait makes it unlikely that Dame will approach the performance of the first. I would be surprised if it exceeds $25 million in its debut and believe a high teens to low 20s debut is more likely.

Sin City: A Dame to Kill For opening weekend prediction: $20.8 million

For my If I Stay prediction, click here:

If I Stay Box Office Prediction

For my When the Game Stands Tall prediction, click here:

When the Game Stands Tall Box Office Prediction

Top 25 Highest Grossing Actors of All Time: Nos. 5-1

We’ve reached the five highest grossing actors in the history of film this evening and the culmination of my five part series. Hope you’ve enjoyed it! For a reminder of the men and women who makes up numbers 25-6 – you can peruse them at the following links:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/09/top-25-highest-grossing-actors-of-all-time-nos-25-21/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/10/top-25-highest-grossing-actors-of-all-time-nos-20-16/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/12/top-25-highest-grossing-actors-of-all-time-nos-15-11/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/13/top-25-highest-grossing-actors-of-all-time-nos-10-6/

Now… to the top five:

5. Eddie Murphy

Career Earnings: $3.8 billion

Franchises: The 48 HRS, Beverly Hills Cop, Nutty Professor, Doctor Dolittle, and Shrek series.

Highest Grossing Picture: Shrek 2 – $441 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 13. Beverly Hills Cop, Beverly Hills Cop II, Coming to America, The Nutty Professor, Mulan, Doctor Dolittle, The Nutty Professor II: The Klumps, Shrek, Dr. Dolittle 2, Daddy Day Care, Shrek 2, Dreamgirls, Shrek the Third, Shrek Forever After.

Lowest Grossing Picture: The Adventures of Pluto Nash – $4 million

4. Harrison Ford

Career Earnings: $3.8 billion

Franchises: The Star Wars, Indiana Jones, and Jack Ryan series. Mr. Ford also appeared in Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues and The Expendables 3.

Highest Grossing Picture: Star Wars – $461 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 13. Star Wars, The Empire Strikes Back, Raiders of the Lost Ark, Return of the Jedi, Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, The Fugitive, Clear and Present Danger, Air Force One, What Lies Beneath, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Cowboys&Aliens, Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues.

Lowest Grossing Picture: Crossing Over – $455,000

3. Samuel L. Jackson

Career Earnings: $4 billion

Franchises: The Iron Man, Avengers, Captain America, Star Wars, and XXX series.

Highest Grossing Picture: The Avengers – $623 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 19. Coming to America, Jurassic Park, Pulp Fiction, Die Hard with a Vengeance, A Time to Kill, Star Wars: The Phantom Menace, Star Wars: Attack of the Clones, XXX, S.W.A.T., The Incredibles, Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith, Iron Man, Iron Man 2, The Other Guys, Thor, Captain America: The First Avenger, The Avengers, Django Unchained, Captain America: The Winter Soldier.

Lowest Grossing Picture: Meeting Evil – $525 (you read that right… five hundred twenty five dollars…)

2. Morgan Freeman

Career Earnings: $4.1 billion

Franchises: The Dark Knight series. Bruce Almighty/Evan Almighty

Highest Grossing Picture: The Dark Knight – $534 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 16. Driving Miss Daisy, Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves, Unforgiven, Seven, Deep Impact, The Sum of All Fears, Bruce Almighty, Million Dollar Baby, Batman Begins, Evan Almighty, Wanted, The Dark Knight, The Dark Knight Rises, Now You See Me, The LEGO Movie, Lucy.

Lowest Grossing Picture: 10 Items or Less – $83,000

1. Tom Hanks

Career Earnings: $4.2 billion

Franchises: The Toy Story series. The Da Vinci Code/Angels&Demons

Highest Grossing Picture: Toy Story 3 – $415 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 18. Big, A League of their Own, Sleepless in Seattle, Forrest Gump, Apollo 13, Toy Story, Saving Private Ryan, You’ve Got Mail, Toy Story 2, The Green Mile, Cast Away, Road to Perdition, Catch Me If You Can, The Polar Express, The Da Vinci Code, Angels&Demons, Toy Story 3, Captain Phillips.

Lowest Grossing Picture: Every Time We Say Goodbye – $278,000

**A blogger’s note: With Samuel L. Jackson’s involvement in the Avengers universe, do not be surprised to see him vault to #1 once the Avengers sequel is released next summer.

That’s all for now, folks!

Top 25 Highest Grossing Actors of All Time: Nos. 10-6

We have arrived at the Top Ten in my list of the Top 25 Highest Grossing Actors of All Time this evening. If you missed my first three parts covering numbers 25-11, you can find them here and here and here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/09/top-25-highest-grossing-actors-of-all-time-nos-25-21/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/10/top-25-highest-grossing-actors-of-all-time-nos-20-16/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/12/top-25-highest-grossing-actors-of-all-time-nos-15-11/

Onto the top ten with the final five coming tomorrow:

10. Robert Downey, Jr.

Career Earnings: $3 billion

Franchises: The Iron Man, Sherlock Holmes, and Avengers series

Highest Grossing Picture: The Avengers – $623 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 8. Iron Man, Tropic Thunder, Sherlock Holmes, Iron Man 2, Due Date, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, The Avengers, Iron Man 3.

Lowest Grossing Picture: Hugo Pool – $13,000

9. Johnny Depp

Career Earnings: $3 billion

Franchises: The Pirates of the Caribbean series

Highest Grossing Picture: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest – $423 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 8. Sleepy Hollow, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, Alice in Wonderland, Rango, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides.

Lowest Grossing Picture: Arizona Dream – $112,000

8. Robin Williams

Career Earnings: $3.1 billion

Franchises: The Night at the Museum and Happy Feet series

Highest Grossing Picture: Night at the Museum – $250 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 13. Good Morning, Vietnam, Hook, Aladdin, Mrs. Doubtfire, Jumanji, The Birdcage, Good Will Hunting, Patch Adams, Robots, Happy Feet, Night at the Museum, Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian, Lee Daniels’ The Butler.

Lowest Grossing Picture: The Secret Agent – $106,000

7. Bruce Willis

Career Earnings: $3.1 billion

Franchises: The Die Hard, Look Who’s Talking, The Expendables, and Red series. Mr. Willis also appeared in the sequel G.I. Joe: Retaliation.

Highest Grossing Picture: The Sixth Sense – $293 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 10. Look Who’s Talking, Die Hard 2: Die Harder, Pulp Fiction, Die Hard with a Vengeance, Armageddon, The Sixth Sense, Over the Hedge, Live Free or Die Hard, The Expendables, G.I. Joe: Retaliation.

Lowest Grossing Picture: Lay the Favorite – $20,000

6. Tom Cruise

Career Earnings: $3.3 billion

Franchises: The Mission: Impossible series

Highest Grossing Picture: War of the Worlds – $234 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 17. Top Gun, Rain Man, A Few Good Men, The Firm, Interview with the Vampire, Mission: Impossible, Jerry Maguire, Mission: Impossible II, Vanilla Sky, Minority Report, The Last Samurai, Collateral, War of the Worlds, Mission: Impossible III, Tropic Thunder, Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol, Edge of Tomorrow.

Lowest Grossing Picture: Losin’ It – $1 million

Top Five coming tomorrow, everyone!

Top 25 Highest Grossing Actors of All Time: Nos. 15-11

We’ve returned to my Top 25 Highest Grossing Actors of All Time list and part three, covering numbers 15-11. If you missed the first two entries, you may find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/09/top-25-highest-grossing-actors-of-all-time-nos-25-21/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/10/top-25-highest-grossing-actors-of-all-time-nos-20-16/

Let’s go right to it:

15. Ian McKellen

Career Earnings: $2.8 billion

Franchises: The X-Men, Lord of the Rings, and Hobbit series

Highest Grossing Picture: Lord of the Rings: Return of the King – $377 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 10. X-Men, Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, X2: X-Men United, Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, The Da Vinci Code, X-Men: The Last Stand, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, X-Men: Days of Future Past.

Lowest Grosser: Emilie – $5,800

14. Robert De Niro

Career Earnings: $2.9 million

Franchises: The Fockers series and Analyze This/Analyze That

Highest Grossing Picture: Meet the Fockers – $279 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 6.  Analyze This, Meet the Parents, Shark Tale, Meet the Fockers, Little Fockers, Silver Linings Playbook.

Lowest Grosser: Killing Season – $39,000

13. Michael Caine

Career Earnings: $2.9 billion

Franchises: The Dark Knight series. Mr. Caine also appeared in sequels Jaws 4: The Revenge, Austin Powers in Goldmember, Cars 2, and Journey 2: The Mysterious Island.

Highest Grossing Picture: The Dark Knight – $534 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 9. Miss Congeniality, Austin Powers in Goldmember, Batman Begins, The Dark Knight, Inception, Cars 2, Journey 2: The Mysterious Island, The Dark Knight Rises, Now You See Me.

Lowest Grosser: Around the Bend – $193,000

12. Cameron Diaz

Career Earnings: $2.9 billion **Blogger’s note: highest ranking female on list

Franchises: The Shrek series. Charlie’s Angels/Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle

Highest Grossing Picture: Shrek 2 – $441 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 11. The Mask, My Best Friend’s Wedding, There’s Something About Mary, Charlie’s Angels, Shrek, Vanilla Sky, Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle, Shrek 2, Shrek the Third, Shrek Forever After, Bad Teacher.

Lowest Grosser: Head Above Water – $32,000

11. Gary Oldman

Career Earnings: $3 billion

Franchises: The Harry Potter and Dark Knight franchises. Mr. Oldman also appeared in sequels Hannibal, Kung Fu Panda 2, and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.

Highest Grossing Picture: The Dark Knight – $534 million

Numbers of $100M+ Earners: 12. Air Force, Hannibal, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Batman Begins, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, The Dark Knight, A Christmas Carol, Kung Fu Panda 2, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, The Dark Knight Rises, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.

Lowest Grosser: We Think the World of You – $20,000

Tomorrow – we get to the Top Ten!