Tag: Box Office

Box Office Predictions: April 18-20

On this coming Easter weekend, four new titles make their debut at multiplexes: the Johnny Depp sci-fi thriller Transcendence, the Christian themed drama Heaven Is for Real, the horror parody sequel A Haunted House 2, and the Disney nature doc Bears. You can find my individual prediction posts on each right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/transcendence-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/heaven-is-for-real-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/a-haunted-house-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/bears-box-office-prediction/

My predictions reflect a belief that Transcendence should open first, though it may face competition from Rio 2 in its second weekend. That animated sequel should suffer a rather small decline that isn’t as steep as last weekend’s returning champ Captain America: The Winter Soldier.

Heaven Is for Real could be poised for a solid opening with its shrewd Easter debut while I see fairly disappointing results for A Haunted House 2 and Bears.

And with that – my top six predictions for the holiday weekend:

1. Transcendence

Predicted Gross: $30.8 million

2. Rio 2

Predicted Gross: $25.9 million (representing a drop of 34%)

3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. Heaven Is for Real

Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (predicted five-day opening of $24.8 million)

5. A Haunted House 2

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

6. Bears

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

Box Office Results (April 11-13)

As predicted, Captain America: The Winter Soldier held onto the top spot in its sophomore weekend with $41.2 million, a bit below my $45.3M prediction. The animated Rio 2 opened right on pace with its predecessor with $39.3 million (the first did $39.2M out of the gate), slightly below my $41.7M estimate. The horror flick Oculus had a middling start with $12 million for third place, just above my $11M projection while Kevin Costner’s Draft Day had a weak fourth place debut with only $9.7 million, under my $13.2M estimate. Noah rounded out the top five with $7.5 million, on target with my $7.4M prediction.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time.

A Haunted House 2 Box Office Prediction

Arriving just 15 months after the unexpected success of its predecessor, A Haunted House 2 starring Marlon Wayans hits theaters Friday. The horror flick parody follows the original which debuted in January 2013 to a solid $18 million opening weekend on its way to a $40 million domestic gross.

While the original was a sleeper hit (especially considering its miniscule $2.5 million budget), expectations are a little more this time around. In my estimation, this sequel won’t match up either. Simply put, while A Haunted House did good business, audiences weren’t overly impressed by what they saw. This helps explain why it did nearly half its overall gross in the first three days.

While A Haunted House 2 certainly could approach what the first accomplished, I think it’s unlikely. As I see it, this will struggle and a likely gross is in the low double digits seems in the cards.

A Haunted House 2 opening weekend prediction: $10.6 million

For my Transcendence prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/transcendence-box-office-prediction/

For my Heaven Is for Real prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/heaven-is-for-real-box-office-prediction/

For my Bears prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/bears-box-office-prediction/

Heaven Is for Real Box Office Prediction

With a meager $12 million budget, the Christian themed drama Heaven Is for Real looks to capitalize on its Easter weekend opening and continue the trend of Bible themed pictures doing well at the multiplex. Already this year, we’ve seen Son of God, Noah, and God’s Not Dead all post solid results.

Randall Wallace, screenwriter of Braveheart and director of We Were Soldiers, is behind the camera with a cast that includes Greg Kinnear, Kelly Reilly, and Thomas Haden Church. It’s based on a bestselling 2010 book. Heaven opens on Wednesday and I’ll be predicting both its five-day and traditional weekend gross.

As I see it, this could easily exceed expectations and a have a larger gross than my estimate will reflect. In February, Son of God took in $26.5 million in its three day weekend debut. I could see Heaven accomplishing close to that in its five-day haul which would be a robust start for Sony Pictures.

Heaven Is for Real opening weekend prediction: $17.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $24.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Transcendence prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/transcendence-box-office-prediction/

For my A Haunted House 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/a-haunted-house-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Bears prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/bears-box-office-prediction/

Transcendence Box Office Prediction

For cinephiles, this Friday’s Transcendence has been eagerly anticipated not just for Johnny Depp starring in it – but also because it marks the directorial debut of Wally Pfister. He is best known as the cinematographer behind all of Chris Nolan’s pictures, including The Dark Knight trilogy and Inception. The sci-fi thriller is headlined by Depp with a supporting cast including Rebecca Hall, Kate Mara, and Nolan regulars Morgan Freeman and Cillian Murphy.

The participation of Depp makes this high-profile alone, but it’s worth noting he’s had a couple of flops in a row with Dark Shadows and The Lone Ranger. The trailers for Transcendence have surprisingly been rather middling in my view and they don’t really reflect what the film is about. This could hinder its potential with its opening. Warner Bros. is releasing Transcendence the same weekend as Tom Cruise’s Oblivion last year. That title earned $37 million in its premiere and I’m sure the studio would love to see that number here.

Transcendence should easily nab the #1 spot next weekend but I don’t believe it’ll get quite as high as Cruise’s sci-fi entry. Low 30s seems the safe bet.

Transcendence opening weekend prediction: $30.8 million

For my Heaven Is for Real prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/heaven-is-for-real-box-office-prediction/

For my A Haunted House 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/a-haunted-house-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Bears prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/bears-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: April 11-13

A trio of new films open this weekend against the second weekend of the massive Marvel hit Captain America: The Winter Soldier. They are the animated sequel Rio 2, horror pic Oculus, and sports themed comedy/drama Draft Day. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/rio-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/draft-day-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/oculus-box-office-prediction/

There is no question that Rio 2 stands the greatest chance at taking the top spot over Captain. However, while I believe it should be a close race, I think Steve Rogers and company will maintain their #1 ranking. As for Draft Day and Oculus, there are some box office prognosticators who have each opening higher than my estimates, but I’m predicting they’ll both post lackluster results. Darren Aronofksy’s Noah should round out the top five in weekend #3.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $45.3 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. Rio 2

Predicted Gross: $41.7 million

3. Draft Day

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Oculus

Predicted Gross: $11 million

5. Noah

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 56%)

Box Office Results (April 4-6)

As mentioned, Captain America: The Winter Soldier got off to a fantastic debut with $95 million, surpassing my $86.3M projection. This represents the best April opening of all time, beating out Fast Five from three years back. The opening continues the trend of Marvel Studios entries opening higher than their predecessors post Avengers.

In weekend number two, Noah fell a bit further than I figured with $17 million, below my $19.6M estimate. With a precipitous 61% fall, the mediocre word of mouth clearly affected the epic in its sophomore frame. Taking third in weekend #3 was Divergent with $12.9 million, right on track with my $12.8M prediction. I incorrectly had the Christian themed hit God’s Not Dead out of the top six, but it dipped only 12% for a fourth place showing at $7.7 million. Muppets Most Wanted was fifth with $6.2 million, slightly below my $7.1M estimate. Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel was sixth with $6.1 million. My prediction? $6.1 million! Gold star! Finally, Mr. Peabody and Sherman was seventh with $5.1 million, under my $6.3M projection.

That’s all for now, readers! Be sure to check back Monday to see how smart or not smart I am!

 

Oculus Box Office Prediction

The horror flick Oculus debuts in theaters Friday after receiving a mostly positive reaction when it screened at the Toronto Film Festival last year. Whether or not it scores with the genre’s audience is an open question.

To me, the marketing campaign for Oculus has seemed rather subdued. It features no big stars, but that doesn’t really matter when it comes to how horror flicks perform. This could follow a similar pattern to last August’s You’re Next, which also received good reviews but stumbled at the box office with a $7 million opening.

I don’t believe Oculus will debut that badly, but I think double digits is my range here. Horror pics are notoriously difficult to predict, so who knows? However, as I see it, I wouldn’t look for Oculus 2 anytime soon.

Oculus opening weekend prediction: $11 million

For my Rio 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/rio-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Draft Day prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/draft-day-box-office-prediction/

Draft Day Box Office Prediction

Kevin Costner headlines the football comedy/drama Draft Day, which opens Friday. The film focuses on Costner playing the Cleveland Browns GM and the action surrounding them receiving the #1 pick in the draft.

Costarring Jennifer Garner and Denis Leary and with Ghostbusters director Ivan Reitman behind the camera, the question is whether Draft Day will do for the Cleveland Browns what 1989’s Major League did for the Cleveland Indians? That picture was a success and it was unfortunately followed by some weak sequels. Costner is not near the box office draw he was over two decades ago, as evidenced earlier this year with 3 Days to Kill.

Recent sports entries such as The Blind Side and 42 have posted solid grosses, but I don’t see Draft Day getting close to those. As a lifelong Cleveland sports fan, this shouldn’t surprise. We’re used to anything related to Cleveland sports ending in disappointment. The pic could certainly reach high teens, but I’m more inclined to believe lower teens is the likely scenario.

Draft Day opening weekend prediction: $13.2 million

For my Rio 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/rio-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Oculus prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/oculus-box-office-prediction/

 

Box Office Predictions: April 4-6

There’s only one new movie opening this weekend and that’s no accident because it’s a massive one – Captain America: The Winter Soldier, the sequel to the 2011 Marvel original. Steve Rogers and company should be poised to have the biggest opening of the year so far by a wide margin. You can read my detailed post predicting its debut here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/30/captain-america-the-winter-soldier-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, last weekend’s champ Noah got off to a strong start. However, its weak C Cinemascore grade indicates audiences weren’t exactly (ahem) swept away by it and it could suffer a precipitous decline in its sophomore frame. In its third weekend, Divergent is likely to lose around half it audience as it did in week two. Numbers 4-6 should be a close contest between Muppets Most Wanted, Mr. Peabody & Sherman, and The Grand Budapest Hotel.

And with that – we’ll do top 6 predictions for this weekend:

1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $86.3 million

2. Noah

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)

3. Divergent

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million (representing a drop of 50%)

4. Muppets Most Wanted

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Mr. Peabody & Sherman

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 31%)

6. The Grand Budapest Hotel

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 28%)

Box Office Results (March 28-30)

As mentioned before, Darren Aronofsky’s controversial Biblical epic Noah easily took the top spot with $43.7 million, surging a bit ahead of my $39.7M forecast. With Son of God and God’s Not Dead all posting big results, you can count on plenty of other Bible themed pictures over the next couple of years or so. Divergent held up slightly better than my prognosis in its second weekend with $25.6 million compared to my $23M estimate. Muppets Most Wanted also displayed a better hold the second time around than I figured with $11.2 million (my prediction: $9.6M). I incorrectly had Mr. Peabody & Sherman outside the top six in its fourth weekend but it held strong with $9 million. The aforementioned God’s Not Dead was fifth with $8.7 million – right above my $7.9M estimate. Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel expanded its theater count and took sixth with $8.5 million, right on target with my $8.6M prediction.

Finally, Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Sabotage suffered a disastrous debut with an awful $5.2 million for seventh place. I predicted $8.4M. Clearly Ah-nuld has completely lost his luster with moviegoers and this represents his third bomb in a row after The Last Stand and Escape Plan.

That’s all for now, folks!

Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction

The Marvel Studios gravy train keeps on rolling this Friday with Captain America: The Winter Soldier, the sequel to the 2011 original and most importantly – the continuation of The Avengers saga that broke box office records in 2012. Chris Evans returns as the title character alongside Scarlett Johannson as Black Widow and Samuel L. Jackson as Nick Fury with Anthony Mackie, Sebastian Shaw, and Robert Redford (!) joining the regulars.

Buzz on The Winter Soldier is red hot and it stands at a terrific 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. Marvel films have opened at significant bumps following The Avengers and the evidence is clear. The pre-Avengers sequel Iron Man 2 opened to $128 million while the post-Avengers entry Iron Man 3 premiered to $174 million. The pre-Avengers original Thor debuted to $65 million while its post-Avengers follow-up Thor: The Dark World came in at $85 million. Like the first Thor, the original Captain America opened at $65 million.

So it stands to reason that the sequel would make the $85 million that the second Thor achieved, right? Well… yeah, pretty much! An opening in that range seems like a safe bet. It could overachieve and approach $100 million, but I’m going by the numbers we have on file and predicting it’ll just outpace the Thor sequel.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier opening weekend prediction: $86.3 million

Box Office Predictions: March 28-30

Lots of activity at the box office this weekend as Darren Aronofsky’s highly publicized Biblical epic Noah and the Arnold Schwarzenegger action pic Sabotage make their way into multiplexes. We’ll also have the expansion of Wes Anderson’s red hot The Grand Budapest Hotel into theaters and it could certainly crack the top five. You can my individual prediction posts on the newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/23/noah-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/23/sabotage-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Noah should easily nab the top spot. Last weekend’s champ Divergent got off to a very respectable debut for a new franchise yet it should understandably take a rather large dip in its sophomore weekend. Muppets Most Wanted debuted with less than expected results and is likely to fall in the 40s range.

Expanding to 800 theaters, The Grand Budapest Hotel may well compete with Arnold’s Sabotage for the four spot and it could even nab #3. As for Sabotage, I expect it to suffer the same fate as Schwarzenegger’s last two features – The Last Stand and Escape Plan – which both failed to crack double digits in their premieres.

Meanwhile, the Christian themed God’s Not Dead surprised prognosticators such as myself with a much better than expected $9.2 million opening over the weekend. Some believe it could post similar numbers this weekend so it could be in the top five mix as well.

And with that – here’s my estimates for the top six this weekend:

1. Noah

Predicted Gross: $39.7 million

2. Divergent

Predicted Gross: $23 million (representing a drop of 58%)

3. Muppets Most Wanted

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)

4. The Grand Budapest Hotel

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Sabotage

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

6. God’s Not Dead

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million (representing a drop of 16%)

Box Office Results (March 21-23)

I was incorrect in buying into the theory that Divergent would post numbers similar to the original Twilight. The YA flick still got off to a solid start with $54.6 million – even though it was far below my generous $68.4M prediction. Muppets Most Wanted disappointed in its opening with a so-so $17 million, under my $22.8M estimate. Kermit and company couldn’t come close to comparing to their $29 million debut two and a half years ago with that comeback film. Mr. Peabody and Sherman dropped to #3 in its third weekend with $11.8 million, a bit below my $12.9M projection. As mentioned before, God’s Not Dead surprised everyone with a $9.2 million take and I incorrectly had it outside the top five, not even making a prediction on it. 300: Rise of an Empire slid to fifth with $8.5 million, in line with my $8.8M estimate. I had Need for Speed at fifth but it was sixth with $7.9 million – in range with my $7.2M guesstimate.

That’s all for now folks!