Five years ago, the combination of Brad Pitt and World War II produced robust box office results with Inglourious Basterds. We’ll see if lightning strikes twice in Fury, opening Friday. The WWII action pic comes from End of Watch director David Ayer. Pitt headlines alongside supporting players Shia LaBeouf, Logan Lerman, Michael Pena, and Jason Isaacs.
Of course, the aforementioned Basterds (which debuted to $38 million) had the advantage of having Quentin Tarantino and Oscar buzz – something Fury has neither of. The pic was originally thought to be an awards contender, but mixed reviews have rendered that mute (it stands at a respectable 63% on Rotten Tomatoes).
Fury still should succeed at attracting the primarily male action crowd and it shouldn’t have a problem debuting at #1 next weekend. Some estimates put this at getting above $30M, but I’m skeptical. A mid 20s debut similar to what Captain Phillips accomplished last October seems most likely.
Four new movies make their debuts on Friday at the box office – Robert Downey Jr.’s The Judge, the Steve Carell/Jennifer Garner family comedy Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day, the horror retelling Dracula Untold, and steamy thriller Addicted. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:
The question is: can any of them make current #1 Gone Girl disappear from the top spot? It’s certainly possible as The Judge, Alexander, and Dracula could all exceed my estimates and all stand at least a chance of opening atop the charts. Addicted, on a meager 800 screens, is highly unlikely to even crack the top five.
However, I believe Gone Girl will manage to stay #1, despite it serious competition. Annabelle, after a fantastic debut (more on that below), should suffer the same large fall in its sophomore frame that most horror titles do.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Gone Girl
Predicted Gross: $24.2 million (representing a drop of 35%)
2. Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
3. The Judge
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
4. Annabelle
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (representing a drop of 60%)
5. Dracula Untold
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million
**My Addicted projected gross of $4.5M should put it in eighth place.
Box Office Results (October 3-5)
The debuts of David Fincher’s acclaimed Gone Girl and Conjuring horror prequel Annabelle injected some much needed life into the box office and created the biggest October weekend of all time!
As predicted, Gone Girl took top honors with $37.5 million, just below my $39.6M projection. This is Fincher’s highest debut of all time and clearly audiences were ready for the much buzzed about adaptation of Gillian Flynn’s bestselling novel. I expect it to perform well in the coming weeks and it should easily blast past $100M.
I did not give that demonic doll Annabelle nearly enough credit as it opened just behind Girl with a magnificent $37.1 million – miles ahead of my small $21.2M prediction. This is easily the best horror opening of 2014 and bodes extremely well for that Conjuring sequel coming in October of 2015.
Denzel Washington’s The Equalizer fell to third with $18.7 million in weekend two, holding up better than my estimated $16.7M. The action thriller has earned $64 million in ten days and should have no problem passing the century mark.
The animated pic The Boxtrolls dropped to fourth with $11.9 million, in line with my $11.4M projection. The decently performing kiddie pic has earned $32 million in two weeks and should finish with around $65M.
The Maze Runner held up well in weekend three with $11.6 million – more than my $9.8M estimate. The new YA franchise has taken in $73M thus far and will also become a member of the $100M club.
Finally, Nicolas Cage’s Left Behind posted an unimpressive opening of $6.3 million, below my $7.6M prediction. Look for this one to disappear faster its lead actor’s hairline.
The thriller Addicted opens this Friday and it will attempt to cater to the same crowd as recent hit No Good Deed, yet on a more limited level. Billie Woodruff, director of Honey and Beauty Shop, is behind the camera and Sharon Leal and Boris Kodjoe star. The pic is based on a bestselling novel by erotic fiction author Zane.
Similar themed flicks such as Obsessed and No Good Deed targeting the African-American female audience have performed quite nicely, however they had bigger stars involved. Addicted is only slated to open on a small 800 screens so that will certainly affect its overall premiere gross and it seems destined to make under $5 million out of the gate.
Universal Pictures has had great success in their history with monster movies and they’ll try to replicate it with Dracula Untold, opening Friday. Luke Evans (mostly known as the bad guy in Fast and Furious 6) plays the title character with Sarah Gadon, Dominic Cooper, and Samantha Barks costarring.
The release date is no doubt timed to try and capitalize on audiences in a Halloween state of mind. One factor not in its favor could be that Annabelle will be entering weekend #2. While the doll pic is likely primed for a big fall in its sophomore frame, it certainly would count as direct competition. Then there’s Ouija opening just two weeks after. Dracula Untold comes with a hefty $100 million budget and Universal faces long odds recouping that cost domestically.
In fact, as I see it, this will fall far short of that. The film has received mostly negative reviews and sits at 31% on Rotten Tomatoes (not that critical reaction means much when it comes to this genre). Dracula Untold seems to have one thing going for it: the fact that the word “Dracula” is in the title. However, that didn’t mean much for I, Frankenstein earlier this year – which managed only $8.6 million in its first weekend..
Dracula Untold should be able to outpace that, though I’ll predict it only posts a premiere in mid single digits.
Dracula Untold opening weekend prediction: $14.4 million
Walt Disney studios have given their latest effort one important distinction on this blog as Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day is easily the longest title I’ve yet to make a box office projection for. Based on a well-known 1972 children’s book, Steve Carell and Jennifer Garner headline the adaptation which Disney hopes will capture the attention of family audiences.
The film chronicles the Cooper family’s day with all those negative adjectives listed above. In Disney’s favor is that competition for younger moviegoers is fairly light, even though The Boxtrolls and The Maze Runner are still performing well. Critical reaction has been positive so far with an 83% score on Rotten Tomatoes at press time.
I am not expecting Alexander to be a huge performer out of the gate, but it’s likely to open decently and have sturdy legs in subsequent weekends. This certainly could surpass the $20 million mark in weekend 1, but I’ll project it falls just under that.
Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day opening weekend prediction: $18.7 million
For the past six and a half years, it’s been rare to see Robert Downey Jr. in any movie that’s not part of a franchise – whether Iron Man, The Avengers, or Sherlock Holmes. This Friday, audiences will have that opportunity with David Dobkin’s The Judge.
The courtroom drama finds Downey playing a hotshot attorney defending his dad/title character played by Robert Duvall. The supporting cast includes Billy Bob Thornton, Vera Farmiga, Vincent D’Onofrio, and Dax Shepard. For a short period of time, The Judge was thought of as a potential awards contender until it screened at the Toronto Film Festival last month. Critical reaction was mixed as it currently stands at a middling 52% on Rotten Tomatoes. The lack of positive buzz from that community could hinder the pic’s opening weekend potential and competition for adult audiences is strong with Gone Girl entering its second weekend and The Equalizer in its third.
The Judge‘s box office success pretty much rests squarely on the shoulders of Downey and his ability to open a non-franchise related title. If this manages to get past $20 million in its premiere, Warner Bros. should consider that a victory. I have my doubts and believe the audience will give it a verdict in the mid to high teens.
The Judge opening weekend prediction: $16.4 million
For my prediction on Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day, click here:
The first box office weekend of October is bound to be a highly unpredictable one as three new pics enter the marketplace: David Fincher’s Gone Girl, the horror prequel Annabelle, and faith-based Nicolas Cage thriller Left Behind. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:
Here’s where the unpredictability comes in and it applies to all three new films…
Gone Girl is riding a wave of favorable reviews and it’s based on a very well-known 2012 Gillian Flynn novel. Yet movies like this can sometimes open decently and develop sturdy legs in subsequent weekends. My prediction for Gone Girl is definitely on the high end of expectations.
Annabelle, the prequel/spinoff of last summer’s hit The Conjuring, could easily surpass my prediction, which is definitely on the low end of expectations. It’s conceivable that these two newcomers could fight it out for #1, though my estimates do not reflect that.
Left Behind is another wild card. It is based on a series of well-known novels and its Christian themes could certainly give it a better opening than I’m predicting.
Add all that up and it equals a weekend where surprises would not be surprising. As for holdovers, I anticipate current #1 The Equalizer should lose about half its audience, with smaller declines for the animated The Boxtrolls and YA flick The Maze Runner.
And with that – we’ll do a top 6 predictions for the weekend:
1. Gone Girl
Predicted Gross: $39.6 million
2. Annabelle
Predicted Gross: $21.2 million
3. The Equalizer
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million (representing a drop of 51%)
4. The Boxtrolls
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 34%)
5. The Maze Runner
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 44%)
6. Left Behind
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
Box Office Results (September 26-28)
It was a terrific weekend for yours truly with newcomers, while I didn’t give a couple of holdovers enough credit and gave another a bit too much.
As expected, Denzel Washington’s The Equalizer easily topped the charts with a rock solid $34.1 million, right in line with my $34.8M projection. The action thriller managed the fourth best September debut ever and the third best for star Washington.
YA hit The Maze Runner slipped to second with $17.4 million, holding up quite better than my $14.6M estimate. The budding new franchise has earned $57 million in ten days and is definitely a treat to pass $100M when all is said and done.
The animated feature The Boxtrolls took third with $17.2 million. My prediction… $17.2M! I’ll give myself a pat on the back for that one and this represents a decent opening for the pic.
In fourth, ensemble comedy This Is Where I Leave You made $6.8 million in week two, outpacing my $5.8M projection. It’s made an OK $22 million in ten days.
Fifth place belonged to Dolphin Tale 2 in its third frame with $4.7 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.
That’s because I had the Liam Neeson actioner A Walk Among the Tombstones earning $6.1 million in weekend #2, yet it only managed $4.1M. This major disappointment has grossed only $20 million so far and should top out with only about $30M.
While much audience anticipation should be focused on Gone Girl and Annabelle this weekend, there is another title heading to theaters Friday. It’s the apocalyptic thriller Left Behind starring Nicolas Cage, based on a bestselling series of books catered to faith based readers.
This is not the first adaptation of the novels to the screen as a version starring Kirk Cameron (!) opened in 2005. This reboot costars Chad Michael Murray and former “American Idol” Jordin Sparks. As far as making a prediction for how this will perform, here’s the main challenge: there’s no current theater screen count at press time.
If this opens on 2000 screens, my predicted number will certainly be different than if it opens on 700. In other words, I’m in a guess work frame of mind here. I’ll say this: this will probably be the only time I wager an estimate on a Nicolas Cage flick where his role was originally played by Kirk Cameron.
This could potentially reach the Christian audience it’s going after, but I don’t see this doing much at all. I’ll reserve to right to change my prediction if the theater count forces me to do so, but for now…
Left Behind opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million
When The Conjuring became one of summer 2013’s unexpected hits, one of its most memorable characters wasn’t a human one. Rather it was the creepiest and most demonic doll since Chucky named Annabelle. And now she’s got her own self-titled prequel/spinoff picture opening Friday.
Conjuring director James Wan serves as producer while that film’s cinematographer John R. Leonetti directs. Human stars include Annabelle Wallis, Ward Horton, and Alfre Woodard. Let’s face it, though: the real star is Annabelle the doll and this pic will succeed or fail based on whether audiences want to see her in her own self-contained flick.
My guess is that many horror fans may simply wait to get their Conjuring fix until the actual sequel opens in October 2015. Still, Annabelle should top $20 million in its debut while not reaching close to the $41 million The Conjuring earned out of the gate.
Annabelle opening weekend prediction: $21.2 million
It’s earning highly positive reviews and is based on a huge bestseller by Gillian Flynn. One of the finest directors working today is behind the camera. David Fincher’s Gone Girl seems poised to make a major splash at the box office when it opens this Friday.
Ben Affleck and Rosamund Pike star in this thriller where a wife’s disappearance might not be all that it seems. Costars include Neil Patrick Harris and Tyler Perry. Upon its release just two years ago, Gillian Flynn’s book became a must-read and she herself wrote the picture’s screenplay. Fincher, the great director of Seven, Fight Club, and The Social Network, has taken up the task of adapting it. He last found success directing a beloved novel with 2011’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Fincher’s current largest opening of all time is 2002’s Panic Room, which made $30 million out of the gate. Gone Girl seems likely to surpass that.
As mentioned, reviews have been strong and it currently sits at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. Positive word of mouth should propel Gone Girl to a nice and lengthy run at the multiplexes. I’ll predict this gets off to a very steady beginning and should easily top the charts next weekend.
Gone Girl opening weekend prediction: $39.6 million
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