In the near future, comedian Mike Epps could see a real turning point in his film career when he portrays Richard Pryor in an upcoming biopic directed by Lee Daniels and costarring Oprah Winfrey and Eddie Murphy. In the meantime, Meet the Blacks opens this Friday in theaters and it appears unlikely to do much for anybody’s careers.
Debuting on a fairly low reported 1000 screens, Blacks is a low budget parody of The Purge franchise. Epps headlines with Zulay Henao, Gary Owen, George Lopez, Mike Tyson, and Charlie Murphy among the supporting players.
Meet the Blacks seems unlikely to break out and the minimal number of screens doesn’t help. If this were to get roughly the same per screen average as A Haunted House 2 from two years ago, that would give it less than $4 million. That sounds about right.
Meet the Blacks opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million
Two years ago, the faith based drama God’s Not Dead turned into quite the sleeper hit. After opening with a surprisingly robust $9.2 million, it held firmly in subsequent weekends to the tune of a $60 million overall gross.
Now we have a sequel opening next weekend and God’s Not Dead 2 has plenty of similarities to the original. For one – a rather eclectic cast. Part one boasted both TV’s Hercules (Kevin Sorvo) and Superman (Dean Cain). The sequel has Melissa Joan Hart of “Sabrina, the Teeange Witch” fame, “Desperate Housewives” alum Jesse Metcalfe, the late Tennesse Senator and actor Fred Thompson, Mike Tyson’s ex Robin Givens, and fourth Ghostbuster Ernie Hudson. I wasn’t kidding, folks!
The original was made on a reported $2 million budget and while I couldn’t find a reported price tag for this, it’s probably not much and it shouldn’t have much trouble turning a profit. However, that doesn’t mean it’ll earn as much as its predecessor. There has been a bunch of similar genre pics in recent weeks (Miracles from Heaven, Risen, The Young Messiah) and that could have some effect.
I look for this to open in the same range as the first and perhaps just above it, but it may not have the legs to get to an eventual $60M domestic tally.
God’s Not Dead 2 opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million
Two iconic superheroes look to set an all-time March opening weekend record as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice debuts Friday, along with rom com sequel My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
As outlined in the individual prediction on Dawn of Justice, it stands a real shot at becoming March’s biggest opener if it manages to get past the $152 million accomplished by The Hunger Games four years ago. I’m predicting that it will.
As for Greek Wedding 2, it’s the sequel to the highest earning romantic comedy in box office history. However, I believe the 14 year gap with this sequel could mean an opening in the low teens.
When it comes to holdovers, Zootopia should drop to second after 3 weeks on top while The Divergent Series: Allegiant looks to suffer a much heftier drop in its sophomore frame than Miracles from Heaven, which should capitalize on the Easter weekend. In fact, I see a genuine photo finish for the three spot between Wedding, Miracles, and Allegiant.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Predicted Gross: $166.4 million
2. Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million
3. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
4. TheDivergentSeries: Allegiant
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
5. Miracles from Heaven
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
Box Office Results (March 18-20)
Disney’s Zootopia made it three weeks in a row on top with $37.1 million, a bit higher than my $32M forecast. The smash hit animated pic has earned $200M thus far and reaching above $300M now looks to be a foregone conclusion.
The results were not so hot for The Divergent Series: Allegiant, which posted the lowest numbers by far of the franchise to date. While 2014’s Divergent premiered to $54 million and Insurgent made $52 million, Allegiant managed just $29 million compared to my $43.7M prediction. This doesn’t bode well for part two of Allegiant, out next summer.
The faith based drama Miracles from Heaven debuted in third with a sturdy $14.8 million (just under my $15.8M projection) and a five day total of $18.3 million since its Wednesday opening (I said $20.8M). As mentioned, look for this continue to perform solidly this coming Easter frame.
10 Clovefield Lane was fourth in its second weekend with $12.5 million (I said $10.1M) and its two week total is $45M. Deadpool rounded out the top five with $8 million (I was close with $7.2M) for a cume of $340M.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
Next weekend, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 will deal with something its predecessor never had to: expectations. The 2002 original (with a puny $5 million budget) came out of nowhere to become the highest grossing romantic comedy of all time, grossing $241 million domestically and earning an Oscar nomination for Best Original Screenplay.
Original stars Nia Vardalos and John Corbett are back, along with returnees Lainie Kazan, Michael Constantine, Andrea Martin, and Joey Fatone and newbies John Stamos and Rita Wilson (who co-produces like last time alongside her hubby Tom Hanks).
While the first Wedding was a rousing success story that defied any prognostications, it doesn’t help that it occurred fourteen years ago. That’s a long time between sequels and it hinders the possibility of younger audiences turning out that might not even be aware of the original’s existence. This is obviously aiming for female counter programming against Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, which should draw a huge male audience.
Comedy sequels (especially long gestating ones) are a risky proposition, as Ben Stiller just learned with Zoolander No. 2. If this manages to reach $20 million or beyond in its opening weekend, that should be considered a win. Obviously, this stands zero shot at even reaching a third of its sleeper hit predecessor. I’m actually skeptical this reaches $15M and I’ll predict it won’t.
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 opening weekend prediction: $13.1 million
For my Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice prediction, click here:
Technically it may be a follow up to 2013’s Man of Steel, but next weekend’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is considerably more than that. This is Warner Bros kick off to a slew of Justice League and stand alone comic book adaptations that unloads the top characters in the DC Universe arsenal. It is the first pairing of the two most iconic superheroes on Earth, with Henry Cavill reprising his role as Supes and Ben Affleck becoming the fifth high profile actor over the last quarter century plus to don the Bat Suit (excluding Will Arnett’s voice over work in The LEGO Movie). Zack Snyder, who made Steel, returns to direct with that predecessor’s performers Amy Adams, Diane Lane, and Laurence Fishburne back. Jesse Eisenberg makes his debut as Lex Luthor (with hair!), Jeremy Irons is butler Alfred, and Gal Gadot is Wonder Woman, soon to be in her own pic. Same goes for Jason Momoa as Aquaman, in addition to other cameos.
To say a lot is riding on Justice is quite an understatement. Its reported budget is at least $250 million and it’s had a vigorous marketing campaign that has lasted for months. The success of its future franchise entries are likely to be directly tied to its performance. Early speculation on its opening weekend possibilities are varied. While trailer reaction to February’s Deadpool and the upcoming Captain America: Civil War has been quite strong, there’s been a decidedly more mixed reception here. Some feel this might not reached the $132 million reached by Deadpool, which would be considered pretty disappointing. On the other hand, pre-release tracking is strong and outpacing both the Ryan Reynolds dirty superhero tale and Furious 7, which made $147 million out of the gate. This should, at the least, achieve becoming the highest Superman opening, topping Steel’s $116 million. It has a quite realistic shot at best March premiere if it manages to fly past the $152 million achieved by 2012’s The Hunger Games.
So where do I come out here? This is a tough call. I don’t see this making less than $125 million. I’m also skeptical that a gross matching or opening higher than, say, last year’s Avengers sequel at $191 million is a stretch (though you never know). My feeling is that this might open in range with the last two Dark Knight entries, which opened to $158 and $160 million, respectively. If it tops that, that would give it the distinction of largest start for a Bat flick. I’ll predict it comes just beyond those numbers.
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opening weekend prediction: $166.4 million
For my My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 prediction, click here:
Two new entries populate the multiplexes this weekend as third YA franchise entry The Divergent Series: Allegiant and faith based drama Miracles from Heaven debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:
While I have Allegiant opening below its predecessors Divergent and Insurgent, it should still manage to end the two week dominance of Zootopia atop the charts. I have Miracles posting a solid third place showing and it could play well into Easter weekend in its sophomore frame if word of mouth is strong.
As for holdovers, Disney’s Zootopia should fall to the runner up position and keep its terrific returns coming. 10 Cloverfield Lane was a hit with the critics but only received a middling B- Cinemascore grade, so I look for its second week drop to be big. Deadpool should round out the top five.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
The Divergent Series: Allegiant
Predicted Gross: $43.7 million
2. Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 37%)
3. Miracles from Heaven
Predicted Gross: $15.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $20.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday prediction)
4. 10 Cloverfield Lane
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)
5. Deadpool
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 35%)
Box Office Results (March 11-13)
Zootopia continued to rule the box office kingdom this weekend with an even smaller than expected drop in weekend #2. The Disney animated tale, fresh off its record setting opening frame, grossed $51.3 million (outpacing my $41.6M estimate) for a $143M total.
10 Cloverfield Lane couldn’t come to close to matching its predecessor’s $40 million premiere in 2008, but managed a respectable $24.7 million (compared to my $28.3M prognosis). Considering its reported small budget, it should turn a nice profit.
London Has Fallen was third in its sophomore weekend with $10.8 million, just above my $9.9M prediction for a ten day total of $39M.
Fourth place was massive hit Deadpool with $10.8 million (a bit higher than my prediction of $9.4M) for a four week tally of $328M.
In fifth was the Tina Fey comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot with $4.6 million for a ten day total of $14M. I incorrectly had it outside my top 6 predictions.
That’s because I grossly overestimated two newcomers. There was one exception: rom com The Perfect Match was sixth with $4.2 million. I said $4.1M. At least I was close on that one…
As for The Young Messiah and The Brothers Grimsby… not so much. The faith based drama Messiah opened in seventh at just $3.2 million, way below my generous $12.7M estimate. As for Sacha Baron Cohen’s critically reviled Grimsby, it fared even slightly worse in 8th place with $3.2 million compared to my generous $11.4M estimate.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Arriving the week before Easter, the Christian themed drama Miracles from Heaven is out on Wednesday and hopes to bring in a faith based audience. Based on a true story and bestselling novel by Christy Beam, Jennifer Garner stars as a mom whose young daughter suffering from a rare disorder experiences a miraculous cure. Costars include Kylie Rogers, Martin Henderson, and Queen Latifah.
Miracles arrived amidst a series of Christian dramas that includes Risen, The Young Messiah, and God’s Not Dead 2 on April 1. There are signs that this could be the best performer. The novel has a following and this seeks to capitalize on its pre Easter release date.
I’ll predict Heaven achieves a mid teens gross over the traditional weekend and could reach above $20M over the five day rollout.
Miracles from Heaven opening weekend prediction: $15.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $20.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my The Divergent Series: Allegiant prediction, click here:
Shailene Woodley and company are back next weekend in The Divergent Series: Allegiant, the third entry in the YA adaptations from author Veronica Roth. The dystopian sci fi pic arrives in the same March slot as its predecessors, 2014’s Divergent and last year’s Insurgent. Director Robert Schwentke is back behind the camera and costars include Theo James, Miles Teller, Ansel Elgort, Naomi Watts, Jeff Daniels, Octavia Spencer, and Zoe Kravitz.
Second installment Insurgent saw a slight dip from the first entry. While Divergent debuted to $54 million and eventually grossed $150M domestic, Insurgent opened at $52 million with an overall $130M tally. Reviews for Allegiant haven’t been kind… it sits at 0% currently on Rotten Tomaotes and I look for its returns to continue diminishing. Even the third and fourth Hunger Games pics saw dips from the first two and this should follow suit.
I’ll say this first Allegiant (the second part arrives in March 2017) will be the first of the series to fall below the $50M mark out of the gate with low to mid 40s being more probable.
The Divergent Series: Allegiant opening weekend prediction: $43.7 million
For my Miracles from Heaven prediction, click here:
Four new titles debut this weekend at the box office to try and challenge Zootopia after its record breaking debut. They are: semi-sequel 10 Cloverfield Lane, Sacha Baron Cohen comedy The Brothers Grimsby, Biblical drama The Young Messiah, and rom com The Perfect Match. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
As I see it, Disney’s Zootopia should fairly easily control the #1 spot for the second weekend in a row, unless Cloverfield significantly exceeds my prognosis. The real battle among the newcomers could be for the #3 slot and I have Messiah slightly edging Grimsby. The number five position could be a battle between holdovers London Has Fallen and Deadpool as I believe the former will have a higher percentage dropoff than the latter. Opening on a limited number of screens, my $4.1M prediction for The Perfect Match should keep it outside the top six.
And with that, my top 6 predictions for this weekend:
Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $41.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)
2. 10 Cloverfield Lane
Predicted Gross: $28.3 million
3. The Young Messiah
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
4. The Brothers Grimsby
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. London Has Fallen
Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)
6. Deadpool
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million (representing a drop of 44%)
Box Office Results (March 4-6)
Disney had a banner weekend as Zootopia had the largest traditional animation opening ever for the studio at a blazing $75 million, soaring past my meager $54.4M projection. The animal tale can also claim highest animated debut for the month of March. As mentioned, it should easily stampede its competitors and remain in first next weekend.
Action sequel London Has Fallen couldn’t match its predecessor Olympus Has Fallen‘s $30M premiere from three years ago. The badly reviewed follow-up earned $21.6 million, under my $24.6M prediction and I look for it to lose over half its audience in its sophomore frame.
Deadpool dropped to third with $16.7 million (in line with my $16.9M estimate) for an incredible tally of $311M.
Tina Fey’s so-so reviewed war comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot had a soft opening for fourth with $7.4 million, a tad below my $8.4M projection.
In fifth, box office dud Gods of Egypt took a nosedive from its dismal debut last weekend with $5.1 million (I was slightly kinder with $5.8M) for a total of $23M.
Finally, British horror offering The Other Side of the Door opened in limited fashion with only $1.2 million (compared to my $2.1M estimate) for just 16th place.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
Rom com The Perfect Match hopes to line up moviegoers when it debuts next weekend. Music video director and Honey maker Bille Woodruff is behind the camera with Terrence J, Cassie Ventura, Donald Faison, Paula Patton, Lauren London, Joe Pantoliano, and Brandy Norwood among the cast members.
Lionsgate is hopeful the flick will reach its intended African American audience and these movies often do significantly exceed expectations. Having said that, Match does seem to have a limited footprint in its marketing campaign and I’m not sure this half of the $9 million that Baggage Claim, a similarly themed pic, did three years ago. It also doesn’t that it’s opening on only a reported 850 screens that must be accounted for as well.
The Perfect Match opening weekend prediction: $4.1 million
For my 10 Cloverfield Lane prediction, click here:
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