Tag: Box Office

47 Meters Down Box Office Prediction

Another shark tale swims into theaters next weekend when 47 Meters Down debuts. Johannes Roberts directs the killer shark pic with Mandy Moore, Matthew Modine, and Claire Holt among the human chum.

The horror thriller has experienced an interesting journey to the big screen. Original distributor Dimension Films slated Meters for a VOD premiere in August 2016 before Entertainment Studios stepped in, bought the rights, and decided a theatrical release was in order.

Why the change? One has to surmise that last summer’s success of the The Shallows (perhaps coupled with TV’s Sharknado ratings) helped. Another benefit: star Moore has seen her visibility rise with her hit TV drama “This Is Us”.

How will this translate to its box office potential? 47 Meters Down should certainly rank fourth among the newbies out next weekend – well behind Cars 3, All Eyez on Me, and Rough Night. I’ll predict a floor of about $5 million with a ceiling of $8 million. My gut has it on the lower end of that scale.

47 Meters Down opening weekend prediction: $6.1 million

For my Cars 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/07/cars-3-box-office-prediction/

For my Rough Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/08/rough-night-box-office-prediction/

For my All Eyez on Me prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/all-eyez-on-me-box-office-prediction/

All Eyez on Me Box Office Prediction

The life and times of the iconic late rapper Tupac Shakur gets the big screen treatment next weekend when All Eyez on Me drops. Taking its title from his heralded Death Row album in 1996, the pic casts Demetrius Shipp Jr. as Shakur with a supporting cast that includes Kat Graham, Lauren Cohan, Danai Gurira, and Jamal Woolard (reprising his role as the Notorious B.I.G. that he played in 2009’s Notorious). Benny Boom, known mostly for making rap videos, directs.

All eyez may be on whether this manages to over perform and nab a possible third place showing over Rough Night. The chances of this coming anywhere near Straight Outta Compton territory (which made $60 million out of the gate) seems highly unlikely. However, a gross in the range of the aforementioned Notorious seems feasible. That film made $23 million over the long MLK weekend over eight years ago and $20 million for the traditional weekend.

That’s where I’ll put Tupac’s biopic, which puts it just over Rough Night for third place (and behind Cars 3 and Wonder Woman).

All Eyez on Me opening weekend prediction: $24.4 million

For my Cars 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/07/cars-3-box-office-prediction/

For my Rough Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/08/rough-night-box-office-prediction/

For my 47 Meters Down prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/47-meters-down-box-office-prediction/

Rough Night Box Office Prediction

Scarlett Johansson gets out of action mode and into comedy mode next weekend when Rough Nights lands in theaters. The R rated flick finds the starlet involved in a bachelorette party gone wrong. Costars include Kate McKinnon, Jillian Bell, Zoe Kravitz, Ilana Glazer, Demi Moore, and Ty Burrell.

Originally titled Rock That Body, the pic will attempt to bring a sizable female audience that made Bad Moms one of the surprise hits of last summer. There is competition in the form of the third weekend of Wonder Woman, which is likely to be banking in the low 30s for that frame.

Johansson could use some good box office fortune after the flop that was this spring’s Ghost in the Shell. Some estimates have Rough Night making around $25 million (higher than the $23 million achieved by Bad Moms out of the gate). I believe the level of competition and lack of buzz will result in a mid teens debut.

Rough Night opening weekend prediction: $15.1 million

For my Cars 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/07/cars-3-box-office-prediction/

For my All Eyez on Me prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/all-eyez-on-me-box-office-prediction/

For my 47 Meters Down prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/47-meters-down-box-office-prediction/

Cars 3 Box Office Prediction

Pixar has its entry in the summer box office derby as Cars 3 opens next weekend. The threequel will have the honor of being the highest grossing animated sequel of the season for two weeks until Despicable Me 3 arrives.

Owen Wilson, Larry the Cable Guy, Cristela Alonzo, Armie Hammer, Bonnie Hunt, Kerry Washington, and Nathan Fillion are among the actors lending their voices to the project. Reportedly, the late Paul Newman (who contributed to the original) will also be heard in flashback sequences.

The auto themed comedy franchise is not considered among the best that Pixar has produced. The 2006 original opened to $60 million with an eventual $244 million domestic haul. The 2011 sequel premiered a bit higher at $66 million, but earned considerably less overall at $191 million. That’s rather low compared to what Pixar has done in recent years. It’s also worth noting that Cars 2 is generally considered the worst of the 17 pictures the studio has produced thus far.

Bottom line: summer ’17 Pixar will be nothing compared to summer ’16 Pixar when Finding Dory opened to $135 million and ended up being the season’s highest grosser at $486 million. I’ll predict Cars 3 does manage to make just under what the first did 11 years ago and eventually struggles to make $191 million made by its predecessor.

Cars 3 opening weekend prediction: $57.8 million

For my Rough Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/08/rough-night-box-office-prediction/

For my All Eyez on Me prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/all-eyez-on-me-box-office-prediction/

For my 47 Meters Down prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/47-meters-down-box-office-prediction/

 

Box Office Predictions: June 9-11

Tom Cruise will attempt to take on the bonanza that is Wonder Woman this weekend and it will probably come up short. Universal monster pic The Mummy opens wide along with criticality lauded horror flick It Comes at Night and military themed biopic Megan Leavey. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/01/the-mummy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/02/it-comes-at-night-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/05/megan-leavey-box-office-prediction/

Mr. Cruise looks headed for a second place showing as I foresee Wonder Woman falling just a bit over 50%. There is a chance that Mummy over performs and gets around $50 million, but I’m not seeing it right now.

Captain Underpants should be in third while the four spot could be a battle between Pirates of the Caribbean in its third frame and It Comes at Night. The latter also has a chance to exceed my estimate, but I’ve got under double digits.

As for Megan Leavey, I’m anticipating a muted premiere at $3.3 million, which would put it in 8th place.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:

1. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $49.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. The Mummy

Predicted Gross: $34.7 million

3. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. It Comes at Night

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

Box Office Results (June 2–4)

DC had a critical hit and now they have a huge box office smash as Wonder Woman lassoed $103.2 million, topping my $98.3M projection. It set the all-time opening record for a female directed motion picture. The road ahead looks bright with very positive word of mouth.

Captain Underpants was second and came in on the lower end of expectations with $23.8 million, under my $27.4M estimate. The Dreamworks animated tale will hope for smallish drops in the weekends ahead, but there’s competition coming with Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3 this month.

Pirates of the Caribbean dropped to third with $22 million, in line with my $21.6M prediction for a two-week total of $115M.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 was fourth with $9.8 million (I said $10M) for $355M overall.

Baywatch held up a bit better than I figured in weekend #2, placing fifth with $8.7 million compared to my $7.5M forecast. It’s earned $41M.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Megan Leavey Box Office Prediction

This weekend sees the release of Megan Leavey, a tale of a real life wondrous woman. It stars Kate Mara in the title role of a US Marine corporal and her combat dog Rex. The Bleecker Street production costars Edie Falco, Common, Tom Felton, and Bradley Whitford.

It’s not easy to bet against a picture with military themes that could also appeal to dog lovers, but Leavey seems to be flying under the radar. Female audiences could also still be distracted by the sophomore frame of Wonder Woman. I’ve yet to see a theater count at press time and that could alter my estimate. For now, I’ll say it falls below $4 million for a muted debut.

Megan Leavey opening weekend prediction: $3.3 million

For my The Mummy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/01/the-mummy-box-office-prediction/

For my It Comes at Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/02/it-comes-at-night-box-office-prediction/

It Comes at Night Box Office Prediction

A24 Studios will try and scare up some business next weekend with the release of psychological horror thriller It Comes at Night. From director Trey Edward Shults, it stars Joel Edgerton, Carmen Ejogo, and Christopher Abbott. Originally scheduled to open in August, it was pushed up after receiving some critical acclaim on the film festival circuit (it’s at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes right now).

Horror flicks are notoriously tough to predict and it’s a genre where reviews don’t matter much. We have seen lauded titles such as You’re Next fail to break through with mainstream audiences and that could hold true here. On the other hand, Get Out from just this year is one of the best reviewed genre titles in recent memory and it made a killing. That said, Get Out seemed to have a lot more buzz going for it.

There’s also the matter of The Mummy opening against it and it could compete for some of the same crowd. I’ll predict It Comes at Night opens just under double digits as it hopes to build upon solid word of mouth or achieve cult status afterwards.

It Comes at Night opening weekend prediction: $9.5 million

For my The Mummy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/01/the-mummy-box-office-prediction/

For my Megan Leavey prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/05/megan-leavey-box-office-prediction/

The Mummy Box Office Prediction

Bloggers Note (06/08/17) – poor reviews and word of mouth have caused a revision from $38.7M to $34.7M

Universal Pictures is hoping that next weekend’s The Mummy both successfully reboots their Brendan Fraser led franchise that began in 1999 and starts off their “Dark Universe” series to pleasing results. The action/horror flick features Tom Cruise in the lead role with Annabelle Wallis, Sofia Boutella, Courtney B. Vance, and Russell Crowe in the supporting cast. Alex Kurtzman directs the reported $125 million production.

The aforementioned Dark Universe franchise is slated to bring us new additions of the Invisible Man, Frankenstein, Van Helsing, and Wolf Man sagas over the next few years. Our previous Mummy series gave us the original 18 years ago, which opened to $43 million and ended up earning $155M domestically. 2001 sequel The Mummy Returns was the high mark with a $68 million premiere and $202M overall haul. 2008’s The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon was a low mark with a $40 million debut and $102M total.

This brings us to Mr. Cruise. He’s not the box office draw he once was and it’s worth noting that only the Mission: Impossible franchise and 2005’s War of the Worlds have made over $40 million out of the gate. That is probably the number The Mummy is poised to reach and that probably means a second place showing after the sophomore weekend of Wonder Woman. I’ll put it right under that mark.

The Mummy opening weekend prediction: $34.7 million

For my It Comes at Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/02/it-comes-at-night-box-office-prediction/

For my Megan Leavey prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/05/megan-leavey-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: June 2-4

After a rather disappointing Memorial Day weekend at the box office (more on that below), June rolls in with two major releases: Wonder Woman, the latest in the DC Cinematic Universe and Dreamworks animated feature Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/25/wonder-woman-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/25/captain-underpants-the-first-epic-movie-box-office-prediction/

There’s little question that Wonder Woman will open at #1, but there’s wide variations on how much it will gross out of the gate. The pic has been garnering glowing reviews and that should help (its Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 96%). I currently have it in the low to mid 90s with the thought that the number could be trending up.

A potential battle may emerge for the runner-up position between Underpants and the second weekend of Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales. However, my estimate puts the non-Sparrow Captain just ahead at #2, as I believe Pirates will suffer a hefty decline.

Holdovers Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Baywatch (which should tumble pretty far after a bad debut) should round out the top five. And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:

1. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $98.3 million

2. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

Predicted Gross: $27.4 million

3. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Predicted Gross: $21.6 million (representing a drop of 61%)

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 50%)

5. Baywatch

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 59%)

Box Office Results (May 26-29)

Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales easily topped the four-day holiday weekend. However, it did so with the lowest debut of any of the five films since the original in 2003. The Johnny Depp pic grossed $78.4 million over the long frame, right in line with my $78.6M estimate. It is highly likely this will turn out to be the lowest domestic grosser of the franchise thus far.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 was second with $27.1 million (I was a touch lower at $25.3M) to bring its total to $340M.

Baywatch, with wretched reviews and so-so word of mouth, performed a box office belly flop with $27.7 million from its Thursday to Monday roll out, under my projection of $39.4M. That put in in third for Friday to Monday portion of the weekend.

News was bad for Alien: Covenant as well. In its sophomore frame, it tumbled to $13.3 million for fourth (well under my $19.9M forecast).

Everything, Everything rounded out the top five with $7.6 million (I said $6.8M) for a two week tally of $23M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie Box Office Prediction

Dreamworks is the first studio with an animated feature for the summer season as Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie hits screens next weekend. Based on a series of well-known childrens books by Dav Pilkey, the film features the voices of Kevin Hart, Ed Helms, Nick Kroll, Jordan Peele, and Thomas Middleditch. The screenplay comes from Nicholas Stoller, who made last year’s under performing Storks. 

Underpants is certainly more of a question mark than some of the other animated tales this season – namely Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3, both of which arrive in June. That said, Dreamworks has a mostly solid history of producing hits. 2014’s Mr. Peabody & Sherman debuted to $32 million, 2015’s Home exceeded expectations with $52 million, Trolls made $46 million last fall, and The Boss Baby opened to $50 million in March, outpacing its projections.

While I don’t see this effort getting past $40 million (though it could happen), I believe a high 20s to maybe low 30s debut is in the cards as the studio likely hopes for a sequel (based on the title).

Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie opening weekend prediction: $27.4 million

For my Wonder Woman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/25/wonder-woman-box-office-prediction/