Love, Simon hopes to enchant moviegoers when the romantic dramedy debuts next weekend. The film, based on a 2015 YA novel by Becky Albertalli, focuses on a closeted gay teen (Nick Robinson) growing up in the South. Jennifer Garner and Josh Duhamel play his parents with Greg Berlanti (known mostly for his TV work) directing.
From the producers of The Fault in Our Stars, the pic has garnered positive critical response as it stands at 87% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Simon has received some publicity for its subject matter and the mostly strong reviews should help.
On the high end, I could see the 20th Century Fox production nabbing about $17 million. However, I believe a lower double digits roll out is more likely as it will hope for word-of-mouth to sustain it in subsequent weekends.
Love, Simon opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million
Warner Bros hopes to kick off a new franchise nearly two decades after the first one when TombRaider debuts next weekend. Based on the iconic video game, it finds Alicia Vikander in the role of Lara Croft that was first portrayed by Angelina Jolie. Directed by the awesomely named Roar Uthaug, the adventure costars Dominic West, Walton Goggins, Daniel Wu, Nick Frost, and Kristin Scott Thomas.
In the summer of 2001, original adaptation LaraCroft: TombRaider premiered to $47 million with an eventual $131 million overall gross. The 2003 sequel TheCradleofLife experienced a significant dip with a $21 million opening and $65 million total. That was a long time ago and it will be interesting to see if old and new fans of the many video games will turn out.
There is potential for a bigger than anticipated roll out. In fact, the nearly $50 million generated by the first Raider certainly exceeded projections. Yet I believe this is more likely to earn a touch higher than the sequel 15 years ago.
TombRaider opening weekend prediction: $26.4 million
Blogger’s Note (03/07): I am revising my Wrinkle prediction from $42.8 million to $37.8 million and now have it in second place
A quartet of new movies enter the marketplace this weekend as Disney’s A Wrinkle in Time, horror sequel The Strangers: Prey at Night, disaster action pic The Hurricane Heist, and action comedy Gringo debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
A month ago, I would have told you that A Wrinkle in Time would easily debut at #1. However, then Black Panther happened (another Disney property). While I’m giving Time the #1 slot, if it under performs, it’s not out of the question that Panther could spend a fourth week atop the charts. I actually have the two of them quite close.
The other newbies likely face a tough road ahead. I have The Strangers sequel tops among that trio. My meager $3.1 million estimate for Gringo puts it well outside the top 5 while my $5.6 million projection for Hurricane also leaves it on the outside looking in. I’ll say Hurricane misses the top 5 due to holdover powers of others. The 3-5 slots and a bit beyond could have quite a logjam with Red Sparrow, Game Night, and Peter Rabbit all posting similar grosses. Sparrow should manage to be #3 (barely by my count). I’ll say current #3 Death Wish doesn’t hold up as well as Night or Rabbit and falls from the top 5 altogether.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. BlackPanther
Predicted Gross: $40.2 million
2. A Wrinkle in Time
Predicted Gross: $37.8 million
3. Red Sparrow
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
4. The Strangers: Prey at Night
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
5. Peter Rabbit
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
Box Office Results (March 2-4)
Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther continued its incredible performance in its third weekend, easily placing first with $66.3 million (in range with my $65.4 million forecast) for a total of $501 million overall. That puts Panther currently in 10th place on the all-time domestic earners list and it’s likely to climb to seventh this weekend. Its gross is good for the #3 all-time third weekend, behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar.
Red Sparrow took the runner-up spot with a middling $16.8 million (just under my $17.5 million estimate). The Jennifer Lawrence spy thriller was hit with mixed reviews and marks the second box office disappointment in a row for the lead actress after mother!.
The Death Wish remake with Bruce Willis opened in third to a rather disappointing $13 million, under my $16.6 million projection. Poor reviews and potential bad timing for its release could have hurt it. It should fade rather quickly.
Game Night was fourth in its sophomore frame, holding up well with $10.4 million (I said $9.8 million) for $33 million total.
Peter Rabbit rounded out the top five with $10 million (ahead of my prediction of $8.7 million) for $84 million overall. The family tale looks to join the century club at some point.
Gringo is action comedy laced with marijuana humor and it hits theaters next weekend. The film marks the directorial debut of Nash Edgerton (previously known for being a stunt coordinator). The cast includes David Oyelowo, Charlize Theron, Nash’s brother Joel Edgerton, Thandie Newton, Amanda Seyfried, Sharlto Copley, and the King of Pop’s daughter Paris Jackson.
Distributed by Amazon Studios and STX Entertainment, I’m having trouble envisioning much of an audience for it. The cast probably isn’t enough to get moviegoers too interested (save for maybe Theron) and the trailers and TV spots might not do enough to keep this from being a home viewing experience.
Gringo is rolling out on approximately 2400 screens (higher than I would have anticipated), but I’ll predict it struggles mightily to break through to American audiences.
The relatively new Entertainment Studios is hoping for another sleeper hit next weekend when The Hurricane Heist hits theaters. The disaster crime flick comes from director Rob Cohen (best known for making the original The Fast and the Furious and xXx) and centers on a group of bank robbers trying to pull off a job during a Category 5 hurricane. The cast includes Toby Kebbell, Maggie Grace, Ryan Kwanten, Melissa Bolona, and Ralph Ineson.
Made for a reported $35 million, Heist‘s best hope is that it will make some cash based on its concept (star power will not be a factor). There is plenty of competition out there as Red Sparrow and Death Wish will be in their sophomore frames and The Strangers: Prey at Night opens against it looking for similar audience members.
Last summer, the studio had an unexpected hit with the shark tale 47 Meters Down. It debuted to $11.2 million with a $44 million overall domestic haul. Ironically, that film’s director is behind the camera with The Strangers sequel it’s competing with. Meters had the advantage of having a shark in it (maybe one of the bank robbers should have been a great white) so I don’t really see Heist reaching its gross.
Interestingly, I keep going back to last fall’s Geostorm as an example of a disaster pic that outperformed expectations. That critically drubbed pic managed to gross $13.7 million out of the gate. Could Hurricane somehow blow away expectations? I doubt it.
For now, I’ll say this doesn’t reach double digits, but it could make more than my current expectations.
The Hurricane Heist opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million
It’s been nearly a decade since Liv Tyler and Scott Speedman were terrorized by sadistic home invaders in TheStrangers. The horror flick turned into an unexpected hit early in the summer of 2008 with a $20 million opening and $52 million overall domestic gross.
With a new cast and director in tow, long gestating sequel TheStrangers: PreyatNight enters theaters next weekend. Johannes Roberts, who directed his own surprise hit 47MetersDown just last summer, is behind the camera with a cast led by Christina Hendricks and Martin Henderson.
The question here is rather simple: will audiences have enough of a memory or fondness for the original to turn up? The horror genre has certainly seen its share of impressive performers lately and it could potentially fill the market niche.
That said, I’m skeptical. I’ll estimate that Prey earns less than half of what its predecessor accomplished some 10 years ago.
TheStrangers: PreyatNight opening weekend prediction: $7.9 million
Blogger’s Note (03/07): I am revising my estimate from $42.8 million to $37.8 million, meaning I have it debuting at #2
What film could knock Disney’s Black Panther off its perch atop the box office charts after its momentous performance? Well, it should be another Disney property as A Wrinkle in Time debuts next Friday. Based on the famed and acclaimed 1962 novel from Madeleine L’Engle, the sci-fi fantasy comes from Selma director Ana DuVernay and marks the biggest budgeted feature ever (a reported $103 million) from an African-American female director. The cast includes Oprah Winfrey, Reese Witherspoon, Mindy Kaling, Chris Pine, Gugu-Mbatha Raw, Zach Galifianakis, Michael Pena, and Storm Reid.
The Disney marketing machine is certainly a formidable one and familiarity with the source material and high-profile actors should serve as a benefit. One potential hindrance: while reviews are embargoed until March 7, initial word-of-mouth from screenings has been mixed.
On the low end, Wrinkle could see a debut in the mid 30s. However, I feel it will manage to climb higher with low 40s gross that could certainly reach as a high as $50 million. I don’t see it hitting the high 60s grosses that Disney’s live-action adaptations like Maleficent or Cinderella managed. That should be enough to allow the Mouse Factory to hold the 1-2 position next weekend with this and Panther.
A Wrinkle in Time opening weekend prediction: $37.8 million
For my TheStrangers: PreyatNight prediction, click here:
Marvel’s Black Panther should continue its momentous run atop the box office as two newbies compete for action fan attention. They are Red Sparrow with Jennifer Lawrence and Death Wish starring Bruce Willis. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Not long ago, I might have estimated Red Sparrow would easily top Death Wish in their head to head. However, I’m beginning to believe it might be a fairly close race for the runner-up spot to Panther. That said, I’m still giving Katniss the edge over John McClane… or Joy over Hudson Hawk if you want to go less obvious.
Holdovers Game Night and Peter Rabbit should round out the top five.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Black Panther
Predicted Gross: $65.4 million
2. Red Sparrow
Predicted Gross: $17.5 million
3. Death Wish
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million
4. Game Night
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
5. Peter Rabbit
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
Box Office Results (February 23-25)
Black Panther continued to confound prognosticators with its amazing run. In its sophomore frame, the Marvel phenomenon grossed $111.6 million, surging past my $101.8 million forecast. Incredibly, that gives it the #2 largest second weekend of all time behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
Game Night debuted in second with a solid $17 million, capitalizing on positive reviews and a dearth of comedies to choose from. It opened in line with my $16.3 million estimate.
Peter Rabbit was third with $12.7 million in weekend #3 (I said $11.6 million) for $71 million overall.
Annihilation with Natalie Portman, despite glowing critical reception, struggled in fourth with $11 million – just edging my $10.4 million projection. While critics are digging it, audiences only gave it a C Cinemascore grade. Look for it to fade quickly.
Fifty Shades Freed rounded out the top five with $7.1 million (I said $6.9 million) to bring its tally to $89 million.
Finally, the YA romantic drama Every Day opened meekly in ninth with $3 million, right in line with my $2.9 million estimate.
Bruce Willis is back on the big screen next weekend with Death Wish, a remake of the 1974 action pic that starred Charles Bronson. Coming from director Eli Roth, the pic costars Elisabeth Shue, Vincent D’Onofrio, Dean Norris, Kimberly Elise, and Mike Epps.
Willis will be in full vigilante mode and those familiar with Death Wish know it spawned numerous sequels of highly questionable quality. The star of the proceedings has been a bit of a stranger to multiplexes in recent years as many of his films have gone the direct to VOD route.
Competition is certainly there with Jennifer Lawrence’s Red Sparrow debuting against it and also making a play for R rated genre fans. That said, if Den of Thieves could pull in $15.2 million in January, I believe this could put up fairly similar numbers and perhaps a bit higher.
Death Wish opening weekend prediction: $16.6 million
Blogger’s Note (02/28): I am revising my Red Sparrow down from $19.5 million to $17.5 million
Red Sparrow, out next Friday, reunites Jennifer Lawrence with her director for the last three Hunger Games installments Francis Lawrence. The spy thriller casts the star as a Russian spy with a supporting cast that includes Joel Edgerton, Matthew Schoenaerts, Charlotte Rampling, Jeremy Irons, and Mary-Louise Parker.
The 20th Century Fox release was originally scheduled for November of last year before the March push back. Reviews have been a bit mixed as it stands at 63% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time.
Lawrence has certainly had her share of massive hits. She’s also had some under performers as of late, including Passengers and mother! Competition is a factor here. Black Panther should still be ruling the charts and Death Wish with Bruce Willis opens directly against it and will try to capture the attention of actions fans.
I could see Red Sparrow performing similarly to another recent female led spy flick, last summer’s Atomic Blonde with Charlize Theron. It opened to $18.2 million. I’ll put this just a touch higher due to Lawrence’s drawing power, but still under $20 million.
Red Sparrow opening weekend prediction: $17.5 million
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