Tag: Box Office Results

Box Office Predictions: August 29-September 1

The fall movie season officially kicks off this Labor Day weekend with two new entries: the horror flick As Above, So Below and Pierce Brosnan spy thriller The November Man. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/24/as-above-so-below-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/24/the-november-man-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m predicting neither of the newbies will add much firepower to the box office. That leaves August’s megahits Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles likely to continue their reign at the top two positions. Keep in mind that my weekend projections this time around are for the four day holiday weekend and that means holdover pics often see an increase in dollars compared to the previous weekend. That holds true with my estimates for Guardians, TMNT, If I Stay, When the Game Stands Tall, and Let’s Be Cops.

And with that – we’ll do Top Seven predictions for the Labor Day frame:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Gross: $21.1 million (representing an increase of 23%)

2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million (representing an increase of 16%)

3. If I Stay

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million (representing an increase of 11%)

4. As Above, So Below

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

5. Let’s Be Cops

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing an increase of 6%)

6. When the Game Stands Tall

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing an increase of 19%)

7. The November Man

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (Friday to Monday projection), $11 million (Wednesday to Monday projection)

Box Office Results (August 22-24)

As the summer movie season drew to a close, there were two big stories: Guardians of the Galaxy became the season’s biggest grosser and Sin City: A Dame to Kill For had one of the worst debuts in recent memory.

Marvel’s Guardians vaulted back to the #1 spot after two weeks behind Ninja Turtles. The blockbuster took in $17.2 million, outshining my $15M estimate. It’s taken in $251 million so far and therefore passed Transformers: Age of Extinction as the King of Summer Movies.

Ninja Turtles slipped to second with $16.7 million, holding up considerably better than my $12.7M prediction. In three weeks, the reboot has amassed $145 million and it should surpass $175M when all is said and done.

The YA pic If I Stay got off to a decent start with $15.6 million – ahead of my $12.1M projection. Many prognosticators had it opening #1, but two teams of venerable superheroes prevented that from happening.

Somewhat surprisingly, Let’s Be Cops only dropped a respectable 39% in its sophomore frame and placed fourth with $10.8 million. I incorrectly didn’t place it in the top five and its two week total stands at $45M. It should reach $75M, which is great considering its meager budget.

The sports drama When the Game Stands Tall earned $8.3 million for a fair fifth place opening, right in range with my $9M projection. With a solid A- Cinemascore grade, it should hold up well next weekend.

And this brings us to Sin City: A Dame to Kill For. Let’s get this out of the way: I had it opening #1 with $20.8 million. Ummm…. oops!

Arriving nearly ten years after the original, Dame performed a fantastically bad box office belly flop with only $6.3 million for a pathetic eighth place debut. Simply put, even though the first was generally well-received, its sequel registered barely any audience interest. Dame easily qualifies as one of 2014’s biggest bombs.

And that’s all for now, folks!

 

Box Office Predictions: August 22-24

This weekend three new pictures will try to unseat Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy, which have held the 1-2 positions for the past two weeks. They are Sin City: A Dame to Kill For, following its predecessor by nearly a decade, YA pic If I Stay, and sports drama When the Game Stands Tall. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/sin-city-a-dame-to-kill-for-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/if-i-stay-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/when-the-game-stands-tall-box-office-prediction/

I believe Sin City will do well enough to top the charts and don’t expect much out of Stay or Game, which I have opening at four and five. If either of those newbies go below my estimates, it may allow holdovers Let’s Be Cops or The Expendables 3 to remain in the top five. However, my projections do not reflect that. I’m also predicting that Guardians will remain at the #2 spot due to a lower percentage drop than Turtles.

And with that – my top five estimates for the weekend:

1. Sin City: A Dame to Kill For

Predicted Gross: $20.8 million

2. Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Gross: $15 million (representing a drop of 40%)

3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)

4. If I Stay

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

5. When the Game Stands Tall

Predicted Gross: $9 million

Box Office Results (August 15-17)

As predicted, holdovers Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy remained atop the charts. TMNT stayed first for its second weekend with $28.5 million, holding up slightly better than my $25.7M estimate. The successful franchise reboot has earned $117 million so far and should reach close to $175M. Guardians took in $25.1 million in weekend 3, barely topping my $24.1M projection. The Marvel juggernaut stands at $222 million and is on its way to be 2014’s highest grosser… until Mockingjay – Part 1 is unleashed.

The poorly reviewed comedy Let’s Be Cops got off to a decent start with $17.8 million over the traditional weekend and $26.2 million since its Wednesday debut. Its Friday to Sunday take was right in line with my $17.7M prediction while its five-day was higher than my $23.4M guesstimate. With a weak B Cinemascore grade, expect Cops to fade quickly though.

Bad box office news keeps on coming for Sylvester Stallone as The Expendables 3 bombed with only $15.8 million, below my $21.5M prediction. The all-star action franchise has clearly lost its steam and a fourth entry seems doubtful at this juncture.

The YA adaption The Giver with Jeff Bridges and Meryl Streep had a lackluster result with $12.3 million – though it did exceed my $11M projection.

And that’s all for now, folks!

 

Box Office Predictions: August 15-17

This weekend – three new titles (The Expendables 3, Let’s Be Cops, The Giver) open and attempt to compete with the second weekend of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and third weekend of Guardians of the Galaxy. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on the newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/10/the-expendables-3-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/10/lets-be-cops-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/10/the-giver-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, there could be a legitimate four-way race for the #1 spot – something that’s extremely rare. Ninja Turtles opened WAY beyond expectations (more on that below) yet its mediocre B Cinemascore likely means a big drop in its sophomore frame. Guardians should hold up better, creating a tight race with Turtles. The wild cards are the third Expendables and Let’s Be Cops. Either one could easily exceed my expectations and debut at #1. However, my predictions reflect a belief that Turtles barely manages to outdo Galaxy with Expendables and Cops third and fourth. The badly marketed The Giver should round out the top five.

And with that, my predictions for the mid-August top five:

1. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 60%)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Gross: $24.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)

3. The Expendables 3

Predicted Gross: $21.5 million

4. Let’s Be Cops

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million (opens Wednesday: $23.4 million predicted for five-day debut)

5. The Giver

Predicted Gross: $11 million

Box Office Results (August 8-10)

Box office prognosticators like me were shell shocked this weekend by the terrific performance of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, which posted the fourth largest August opening ever with $65.5 million, way beyond my $28.2M projection. A sequel was greenlit immediately and a new Turtle franchise is born. I was clearly way off on believing the pizza-loving amphibians popularity had waned. Whoops.

Guardians of the Galaxy held up well in weekend #2 with $42.1 million, in line with my $42.9M prediction. The Marvel blockbuster has amassed a fantastic $176M in ten days.

Opening decently in third was disaster flick Into the Storm with $17.3 million, ahead of my $13.6M estimate. Look for it to fall pretty far in its second weekend, though. The Helen Mirren comedic drama The Hundred-Foot Journey debuted fourth with $10.9 million, on pace with my $10.7M projection. Holdover Lucy rounded out the top five with $9.4 million, just ahead of my $8.1M prediction. Newcomer Step Up: All In kept the dance franchise’s earnings plummeting with only $6.4 million, below my $8.4M estimate. Finally, the James Brown biopic Get On Up continues its highly disappointing run. I believed it wouldn’t fall much in weekend two, but it certainly did. Up was down 62% with $5.1 million, well below my generous $8.8M prediction.

That’s all for now, folks!

Box Office Predictions: August 8-10

This Friday, four new titles will try to knock massive hit Guardians of the Galaxy from its perch atop the box office. They are the franchise reboot of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, found footage disaster flick Into the Storm, the Helen Mirren led comedic drama The Hundred-Foot Journey, and dance competition sequel Step Up: All In. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/03/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/03/into-the-storm-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/03/the-hundred-foot-journey-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/03/step-up-all-in-box-office-prediction/

The only newbie with a fair shot of challenging Guardians would seem to be Turtles. However, I am going on the low end of expectations for it. Some have it grossing above $30 million and even closer to $40M, but I believe excitement isn’t quite that high and a robust second weekend for Guardians may hurt it.

Into the Storm looks like a relative flop to me, though some have it outpacing my estimate. The Hundred-Foot Journey should barely top double digits while diminishing results for each successive Step Up flick could hurt All In.

As for holdovers, Guardians got off to a truly spectacular start (more on that below). It will likely fall in the same range as other Marvel hits in their sophomore weekends. In its third weekend, Luc Besson’s Lucy should continue to lose over half its audience. The James Brown biopic Get On Up got off to a disappointing start, but with its A Cinemascore grade, I see it having the smallest decline in its second weekend.

And with that – we’ll do a Top Seven for my projections this weekend:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Gross: $42.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Predicted Gross: $28.2 million

3. Into the Storm

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

4. The Hundred-Foot Journey

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million

5. Get On Up

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 34%)

6. Step Up: All In

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

7. Lucy

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 55%)

Box Office Results (August 1-3)

As previously mentioned, Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy got off to an astonishingly terrific run with $94.3 million. The very well-reviewed pic boasted the third highest opening of 2014, behind Transformers: Age of Extinction and Captain America: The Winter Soldier. It opened nearly $20M above my $74.6M prediction. Guardians may well be in a position to eventually become the summer’s largest grosser. Simply put, the Marvel gravy train keeps chugging along…

Lucy dropped to second with $18.2 million in its sophomore weekend, above my $16.6M projection. The Scarlett Johannson actioner has taken in $79M so far and should certainly top $100M domestically.

Get On Up had a lackluster premiere with $13.5 million, way below my $24.9M estimate. It received solid reviews, especially for star Chadwick Boseman, yet it failed to bring in its intended adult audience.

Hercules dropped to fourth in weekend #2 with $11 million, below my $13M prediction. The Rock’s flick has earned $52 million and should top out around $75M.

In fifth was Dawn of the Planet of the Apes in its fourth weekend with $8.6 million, on target with my $8.5M estimate. Dawn has made $189M and should get to around $215M overall.

And that’s all for now, friends!

Box Office Predictions: June 13-15

Two very different sequels debut Friday and both are expected to inject a shot of adrenaline to the summer box office. DreamWorks animated How to Train Your  Dragon 2 and the R rated Jonah Hill/Channing Tatum comedy 22 Jump Street are the newbies and you can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/08/how-to-train-your-dragon-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/08/22-jump-street-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I expect both sequels to open north of what their predecessors accomplished and I’m estimating this will be the first (and probably only) summer 2014 weekend that sees two pictures open above $50M.

The Fault in Our Stars is the current champ and it got off to a terrific start. However, it’s likely to suffer a big decline in weekend #2 due to many of its fans rushing to see it out of the gate. Maleficent in its third weekend should lose around half its audience and the same bodes for Tom Cruise’s Edge of Tomorrow.

If Fault drops as far as I’m predicting, it could create a real race for #3 with Maleficent.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2

Predicted Gross: $88.7 million

2. 22 Jump Street

Predicted Gross: $53.1 million

3. The Fault in Our Stars

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million (representing a drop of 62%)

4. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Edge of Tomorrow

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

Box Office Results (June 6-8)

While I was right on point with this past weekend’s holdovers, I didn’t give either of the new entries quite enough credit.

The Fault in Our Stars dominated with a terrific $48 million debut – beyond my $43.1M projection. The book’s fans came out in droves and the pic managed to quadruple its meager budget in its initial weekend. As mentioned above, it’s likely to suffer a precipitous drop in weekend #2, but even if it does – Fault is unquestionably one of the season’s major sleepers.

Maleficent held up decently in its sophomore frame with $34.2 million – right on pace with my $34M estimate. The Disney feature has earned $128M so far and a $200M domestic gross is within reach.

Edge of Tomorrow couldn’t quite capitalize on its rock solid reviews and the Tom Cruise sci-fi actioner opened with a so-so $28.7 million. It did manage to top my $23.7M prediction, but considering its $178M massive budget – this is a letdown.

At fourth in its third weekend was X-Men: Days of Future Past with $15.1 million, on pace with my $14.9M estimate. The flick has made $189 million so far. In fifth was the Seth MacFarlane bomb A Million Ways to Die in the West with $7.3 million in weekend two, on par with my $7.1M projection. West has made only $30 million in ten days and it struggle to reach $50M.

That’s all for now, folks!

 

Box Office Predictions: May 30-June 1

The summer season keeps the potential blockbusters coming as the Disney tale Maleficent with Angelina Jolie and Seth MacFarlane’s Ted follow-up A Million Ways to Die in the West make their debuts this Friday. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/25/maleficent-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/25/a-million-ways-to-die-in-the-west-box-office-prediction/

I expect both newbies to post healthy debuts, though I expect Maleficent to take in nearly double the haul of A Million Ways. As for holdovers, the Memorial Day weekend champ X-Men: Days of Future Past got off to an impressive start and yet it’s likely to suffer a drop in the high 50s to low 60s in its sophomore weekend. This is not a sign that audiences that don’t like it (quite the contrary). It’s just that tent pole pics that debut over the holiday weekend always tend to suffer large drop-offs. If X-Men were to fall at the rate I anticipate, there could be a potential horse race between it and A Million Ways for the #2 position.

Godzilla (in weekend three) and Adam Sandler/Drew Barrymore flop Blended (in weekend two) should round out the top five.

And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $66.2 million

2. X-Men: Days of Future Past

Predicted Gross: $37.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)

3. A Million Ways to Die in the West

Predicted Gross: $33.6 million

4. Godzilla

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. Blended

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)

Box Office Results (May 23-26)

The Memorial Day weekend saw the X-Men franchise post its second highest debut ever as Days of Future Past earned $110.5 million over the four-day. This is just slightly below my $114.3M estimate. Only 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand debuted stronger and this bodes well for future X adventures.

Meanwhile Godzilla fell further in its second weekend than nearly everyone figured with $38.4 million, well under my $50.6M projection. This indicates that audiences are not impressed with what they saw and aren’t recommending their friends see it. Still it’s earned enough to justify an inevitable sequel.

Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore posted very lackluster results with their rom com Blended, which earned just $17.7 million over the holiday. I thought my estimate of $24.9M was on the low side, but audiences clearly weren’t too interested in what they were selling.

Rounding out the top five were holdovers Neighbors with $17.1 million (a bit under my $18.8M projection) and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 with $10 million (just under my $11M estimate).

That’s all for now folks!

 

Box Office Predictions: May 23-26

Memorial Day weekend 2014 at the box office brings the potentially explosive opening of X-Men: Days of Future Past and the Adam Sandler/Drew Barrymore rom com Blended. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/18/x-men-days-of-future-past-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/18/blended-box-office-prediction/

I’m not quite buying some prognosticators claiming X-Men will make $125 million over the four day holiday frame, but my prediction isn’t too far off from that. Meanwhile, I look for Blended to have an opening on the lower end of typical Sandler debuts.

As for holdovers, percentage drops are typically smaller during Memorial weekend so I see Godzilla, Neighbors, and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 having relatively decent holds.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend top five and their four day holiday totals:

1. X-Men: Days of Future Past

Predicted Gross: $114.3 million

2. Godzilla

Predicted Gross: $50.6 million (representing a drop of 45%)

3. Blended

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

4. Neighbors

Predicted Gross: $18.8 million (representing a drop of 24%)

5. The Amazing Spider-Man 2

Predicted Gross: $11 million (representing a drop of 35%)

Box Office Results (May 16-18)

While many predictions for holdovers were solid over the past weekend, I didn’t give Godzilla near enough credit while giving Million Dollar Arm with Jon Hamm way too much credit.

Godzilla stomped into theaters to the tune of $93.1 million, well beyond my $77.3M estimate. The monster pic managed the second highest debut of the year behind Captain America: The Winter Soldier and virtually guarantees we’ll see a sequel featuring the jolly green giant in the near future.

Seth Rogen’s comedy Neighbors dropped to second with $25 million in its sophomore frame, right in line with my $24.3M projection. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 was third in its third weekend with $16.8 million, on pace with my $16.6M projection.

Million Dollar Arm, the Disney sports drama, flopped in its opening with a meager $10.5 million, way below my generous $23.4M estimate. Clearly the film simply failed to resonate in its marketing campaign.

Rounding out the top five in weekend #4 was Cameron Diaz’s The Other Woman with $6.3 million, just over my $5.7M prediction.

That’s all for now folks! I’ll have results posted for Memorial weekend next week.

Box Office Predictions: May 9-11

We enter the second weekend of the summer 2014 movie season with three new pictures opening: the Seth Rogen/Zac Efron frat comedy Neighbors, the animated pic Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return, and the faith based comedy Moms’ Night Out. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/04/neighbors-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/04/legends-of-oz-dorothys-return-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/04/moms-night-out-box-office-prediction/

Both Oz and Moms’ Night Out could exceed expectations, but I’m estimating rather muted debuts for each. It’s Neighbors that could truly challenge last weekend’s champ The Amazing Spider-Man 2 for the #1 slot. I believe it’ll be close, but ultimately I think Spidey prevails… barely.

Holdovers The Other Woman and Heaven Is for Real should experience drops in the 40s range. And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top six:

1. The Amazing Spider-Man 2

Predicted Gross: $40.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)

2. Neighbors

Predicted Gross: $37.3 million

3. The Other Woman

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)

4. Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

5. Moms’ Night Out

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

6. Heaven Is for Real

Predicted Gross: $5 million (representing a drop of 42%)

Box Office Results (May 2-4)

The summer season got underway and I finally had a pretty damn solid weekend of predictin’!

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 got off to a $91.6 million opening – right in line with my $90.1M projection. This is a solid start for the web slinger, even though it doesn’t match what the original trilogy with Tobey Maguire managed to accomplish. While some prognosticators thought it would top $100M, its opening marks 2014’s second highest rollout following Captain America: The Winter Soldier.

Cameron Diaz’s The Other Woman dropped to second in its sophomore frame with $14.4 million… I said $14.3M (gold star)!

Heaven Is for Real was third with $8.6 million… I said $8.5M (gold star 2)!

The rest of the top five was rounded out by Captain America: The Winter Soldier at 4 with $7.7M (a bit below my $9M prediction) and Rio 2 at 5 with $7.7M (just below my $8.3M estimate).

That’s all for now, folks!

Box Office Predictions: April 25-27

This is the final weekend of the movie calendar before the May onslaught of potential summer blockbusters arrive, including The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, X-Men: Days of Future Past, and Maleficent. On Friday, we’ll see a trio of new titles debut: the rom com The Other Woman, action thriller Brick Mansions, and horror flick The Quiet Ones. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/21/the-other-woman-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/21/brick-mansions-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/21/the-quiet-ones-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, I’m expecting drops in the mid 30s-40s for last weekend’s champ Captain America: The Winter Soldier and runners-up Heaven Is for Real and Rio 2. If that is indeed the case, it could mean fifth and sixth place debuts for Brick Mansions and The Quiet Ones, unless they perform better than expected. I believe The Other Woman should generate enough business to be #1, though if it disappoints it could open the door for a fourth weekend at the top spot for Captain America or possibly a rise to #1 for Rio 2. And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:

1. The Other Woman

Predicted Gross: $18.1 million

2. Rio 2

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)

3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 44%)

4. Heaven Is for Real

Predicted Gross: $13 million (representing a drop of 42%)

5. Brick Mansions

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million

6. The Quiet Ones

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

Box Office Results (April 18-20)

Well… when you mess up, I guess do it big time and, boy, did I ever with Transcendence, the Johnny Depp sci fi thriller. It absolutely tanked at the box office with a terrible $10.8 million fourth place opening. My prediction? $30.8 million. Ouch. This is yet another flop for Depp after disappointments like Dark Shadows and The Lone Ranger. Poor reviews and a weak marketing campaign hurt it and I mistakenly believed Depp’s name would lead it to a respectable opening. Far from it.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier managed a three-peat at #1 over Easter Weekend with $25.5 million, holding better than my $18.9 million. Another surprise besides the Transcendence disaster was the fantastic start for the faith-based Heaven Is for Real. The pic grossed $22.5 million for the three day weekend and $29.5 million from its five day Wednesday start, trumping my respective predictions of $17.5M and $24.8M. This spring has been a great one for Christian themed pictures, including Son of God, God’s Not Dead, and Noah. #3 went to Rio 2 in its sophomore frame with $22.1 million, a bit under my $25.9M projection.

Two more weak debuts marked the weekend – the horror sequel A Haunted House 2 flopped with $8.8 million for fifth place, below my $10.6M projection. Disney’s nature doc Bears failed to bring in an audience with a meager $4.7 million for tenth place. I predicted $8.8 million.

I’ll try to do better next time, my blog reading friends!

Box Office Predictions: April 11-13

A trio of new films open this weekend against the second weekend of the massive Marvel hit Captain America: The Winter Soldier. They are the animated sequel Rio 2, horror pic Oculus, and sports themed comedy/drama Draft Day. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/rio-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/draft-day-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/oculus-box-office-prediction/

There is no question that Rio 2 stands the greatest chance at taking the top spot over Captain. However, while I believe it should be a close race, I think Steve Rogers and company will maintain their #1 ranking. As for Draft Day and Oculus, there are some box office prognosticators who have each opening higher than my estimates, but I’m predicting they’ll both post lackluster results. Darren Aronofksy’s Noah should round out the top five in weekend #3.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $45.3 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. Rio 2

Predicted Gross: $41.7 million

3. Draft Day

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Oculus

Predicted Gross: $11 million

5. Noah

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 56%)

Box Office Results (April 4-6)

As mentioned, Captain America: The Winter Soldier got off to a fantastic debut with $95 million, surpassing my $86.3M projection. This represents the best April opening of all time, beating out Fast Five from three years back. The opening continues the trend of Marvel Studios entries opening higher than their predecessors post Avengers.

In weekend number two, Noah fell a bit further than I figured with $17 million, below my $19.6M estimate. With a precipitous 61% fall, the mediocre word of mouth clearly affected the epic in its sophomore frame. Taking third in weekend #3 was Divergent with $12.9 million, right on track with my $12.8M prediction. I incorrectly had the Christian themed hit God’s Not Dead out of the top six, but it dipped only 12% for a fourth place showing at $7.7 million. Muppets Most Wanted was fifth with $6.2 million, slightly below my $7.1M estimate. Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel was sixth with $6.1 million. My prediction? $6.1 million! Gold star! Finally, Mr. Peabody and Sherman was seventh with $5.1 million, under my $6.3M projection.

That’s all for now, readers! Be sure to check back Monday to see how smart or not smart I am!