Box Office Predictions: December 25-28

Three new releases (not the originally planned four) roll out Christmas Day to compete with holdovers The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, and Annie. They are Disney’s musical fantasy Into the Woods, Angelina Jolie’s adaptation of the bestseller Unbroken, and Mark Wahlberg’s crime drama The Gambler. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of the new entries here:

Of course, there was a fourth movie planned for release called The Interview. If you’re not familiar with happened there, you can turn on cable news or open your Twitter or Facebook feed.

I expect Into the Woods and Unbroken to post similar results for second and third place finishes behind current champ The Hobbit. It is worth noting that some prognosticators have Woods outdoing my estimate and it’s certainly possible.

During the Christmas holiday weekend, it’s not uncommon for some films to gain audience from the previous weekend and I’m predicting modest gains for family fare Museum and Annie.

Wahlberg’s Gambler is likely to settle for a sixth place debut. And with that, my predictions for the Christmas weekend’s top 6:

1. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Predicted Gross: $42.4 million (representing a drop of 23%)

2. Into the Woods

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $30.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)

3. Unbroken

Predicted Gross: $20.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $28.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)

4. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (representing an increase of 10%)

5. Annie

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million (representing an increase of 7%)

Box Office Results (December 19-21)

Peter Jackson’s third and final Hobbit pic dominated the box office while not quite reaching the numbers I predicted. Its Wednesday release was a bit more front loaded than I anticipated. It took in $54.7 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend – under my $67.1M estimate. However, its five day take of $89.1 million was on track with my $93.6M forecast. This is a solid start for the end of the franchise and the fact that its second weekend falls on Christmas will help it.

Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb showed that the franchise is seriously running out of steam as it grossed just $17.1 million out of the gate, under my $25.4M estimate. Perhaps the five year wait from the second and third entries was too long as its fans have simply grown up.

The critically reviled Annie had a ho-hum debut with $15.8 million, just under my $17.6M prediction. It should gain some audience for Christmas, but this has to be below what the beleaguered Sony expected.

Exodus: Gods and Kings, as anticipated, fell hard in weekend #2 to $8.1 million, a bit under my $9.7M prognosis. The Ridley Scott epic, which was met with critical scorn, has earned an unimpressive $38M so far.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 rounded out the top five with $7.8 million (on pace with my $8M prediction). Its earned $289M at press time.

Finally, the Reese Witherspoon drama Wild debuted in sixth place with $4.1 million, not matching my $5.8M estimate. Its Oscar buzz (for Reese) could mean slow drop-offs in subsequent weekends.

And that’s all for now, folks! Have a very Merry Christmas!

Box Office Predictions: December 19-21

It’s a busy pre-Christmas box office weekend as The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, and Annie all make their debuts. Additionally, the Reese Witherspoon drama Wild expands its theater count to approximately 850 screens. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each at the following links:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/13/the-hobbit-the-battle-of-the-five-armies-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/13/night-at-the-museum-secret-of-the-tomb-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/14/annie-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/15/wild-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, The Hobbit should easily rule the weekend, however its Wednesday unveiling (unlike its two predecessors) should give it the lowest three day start of the franchise.

I expect Night at the Museum to open lower than its two predecessors, while Annie should see a lackluster beginning. Opening on less than a third of its competitors, Wild should manage a respectable sixth place debut.

As for holdovers, this weekend’s champ Exodus: Gods and Kings underwhelmed out of the gate and its drubbing from critics and moviegoers (a troubling B- Cinemascore) means it should suffer a hefty fall. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 should round out the top five.

With that, my top six predictions for the weekend:

1. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Predicted Gross: $67.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $93.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

3. Annie

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

4. Exodus: Gods and Kings

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (representing a drop of 59%)

5. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 37%)

6. Wild

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

Box Office Results (December 12-14)

Its #1 opening was never really in question, but as mentioned above, Ridley Scott’s Exodus: Gods and Kings disappointed with a middling $24.1 million premiere. This is much less than my projected $35.5M. Clearly the negative buzz hindered it and a steep fall (especially with Hobbit competition) seems inevitable.

The Hunger Games three-quel slipped to second with $12.6 million, a bit higher than my $11.4M prediction. It stands at $276M in four weeks and while that’s nothing to sneeze at, it will be the lowest domestic earner of the franchise to date.

Penguins of Madagascar continued its unimpressive run with $7.2 million, in line with my $6.9M estimate. Its total is at $58M.

The acclaimed Chris Rock comedy Top Five debuted fourth with $6.8 million, well under my generous $11.6M prediction. While I certainly gave it too much credit, this is a fairly solid haul for a picture than opened on less than 1000 screens.

Disney’s hit Big Hero 6 was fifth with $6 million (I predicted $5.4M). It’s grossed $185M to date.

And that’s all for now, my friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: December 12-14

The second week of December sees the debut of two new films as Ridley Scott’s Biblical epic Exodus: Gods and Kings and Chris Rock’s acclaimed comedy Top Five enter the marketplace. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/06/exodus-gods-and-kings-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/06/top-five-box-office-prediction/

Despite very mixed reviews, Exodus should have no problem topping the charts. Top Five is likely to post a healthy debut opening on a relatively small 975 screens and should battle for the number two spot with three week reigning champ The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1. Family holdovers Penguins of Madagascar and Big Hero 6 should round out the “top five”.

And with that – my predictions for the weekend:

1. Exodus: Gods and Kings

Predicted Gross: $35.5 million

2. Top Five

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

3. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 47%)

4. Penguins of Madagascar

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Big Hero 6

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 34%)

Box Office Results (December 5-7)

As expected, the first week of December was a quiet one before some of the holiday season’s heavy hitters drop. The Hunger Games stayed #1 in its third frame with $21.7 million, right on pace with my $21.9M estimate. The three-quel has earned $257M so far.

Penguins of Madagascar was second with $10.9 million in weekend two, below my $13.3M prediction. The animated Dreamworks tale has been a financial disappointment, earning just $49M so far. It’s unlikely to even reach $100M.

Another lackluster sequel in its 2nd weekend was third as Horrible Bosses 2 earned $8.4 million, a bit above my $7.2M projection. It’s made $35M at press time.

Big Hero 6 was fourth with $8.1 million – not matching my $10.5M estimate. The profitable Disney animated pic stands at $177M. In fifth was Interstellar with $7.7 million, in line with my $7.6M prediction. It’s total is at $158M.

Finally, the barely promoted horror flick The Pyramid opened ninth with $1.3 million. That’s not exactly impressive, but it did manage to top my estimate of $977,000.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: December 5-7

The first weekend of December/post Thanksgiving frame is typically a sluggish one at the box office. Studios are waiting to release their December heavy hitters while it’s just leftovers to moviegoers to munch and catch up on. 2014 should be no exception, especially following a surprisingly lackluster Turkey Day weekend.

There are no new wide releases coming out. Only the barely marketed horror pic The Pyramid opens semi-wide on approximately 550 screens and I’ll predict it doesn’t even crack a million bucks. My official prediction is $977,000 – far outside the top five.

Additionally, this weekend usually means rather large drops for holdovers after the holiday weekend. Seeing that, I predict the top five not changing at all with their grosses being quite a bit lower.

My predictions for the weekend are:

1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $21.9 million (representing a drop of 61%)

2. Penguins of Madagascar

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million (representing a drop of 47%)

3. Big Hero 6

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 44%)

4. Interstellar

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)

5. Horrible Bosses 2

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (Thanksgiving Weekend)

Katniss and company easily ruled the holiday weekend as Mockingjay – Part 1 took in $56.9 million over the Friday to Sunday portion, on par with my $57.9M estimate. Over the five day, it made $82.6 million, just under my $85.7M prediction. The third entry in the franchise stands at $225 million currently and while it’s doing just fine, it will be the lowest grosser of the series thus far.

Dreamworks animated Penguins of Madagascar posted an unimpressive opening with $25.4 million over the three day and $35.4 million for the five day. This is well below my $40.1M and $54.7M projections. Whether it was the direct competition from Big Hero 6 or something else, family audiences simply didn’t come out for this one on the expected level.

Its aforementioned competitor Big Hero 6 was third in weekend #4 with $18.8 million (Friday to Sunday) and $25 million (Wednesday to Sunday) – in line with my respective $17M and $24.8M estimates. The hit Disney ‘toon has amassed $167M at press time.

Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar held up nicely in its fourth weekend with $15.7 million for the weekend and $21.9 million for the five day. This is considerably better than my projections of $10.9M and $15.5M. The space saga is at $147M and should still struggle to reach $200M.

Finally, Horrible Bosses 2 performed a giant belly flop. It managed an embarrassing fifth place debut with just $15.4 million for the three day and $22.7 million for the five. This is far under my respective estimates of $28.6M and $38.3M. Perhaps audiences had their fill of badly reviewed comedy sequels with Dumb and Dumber To. The sequel couldn’t even manage to earn in five days what the original made in three out of the gate ($28M). Not good.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Thanksgiving Box Office Predictions: November 26-30

The term “leftovers” has some real meaning as sequels are likely to populate the top three slots of the Thanksgiving 2014 box office. Penguins of Madagascar and Horrible Bosses 2 will both attempt to unseat The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 for the top spot. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the two newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/22/penguins-of-madagascar-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/22/horrible-bosses-2-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Hunger Games should manage to stay #1, despite the fact that it opened considerably below its two predecessors (more on that below). I expect a drop just over 50%, just like last year’s Catching Fire. Holdovers Big Hero 6 and Interstellar should round out the top five and experience small declines due to the holiday frame.

Since it’s a long holiday weekend, I’ll do the top five predictions for both the traditional Friday to Sunday weekend and extended Wednesday to Sunday five day:

1. The Hunger Games – Mockingjay – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $57.9 million (Fri to Sun), $85.7 million (Wed to Sun) – representing a drop of 52%

2. Penguins of Madagascar

Predicted Gross: $40.1 million (Fri to Sun), $54.7 million (Wed to Sun)

3. Horrible Bosses 2

Predicted Gross: $28.6 million (Fri to Sun), $38.3 million (Wed to Sun)

4. Big Hero 6

Predicted Gross: $17 million (Fri to Sun), $24.8 million (Wed to Sun) – representing a drop of 15%

5. Interstellar

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (Fri to Sun), $15.5 million (Wed to Sun) – representing a drop of 30%

Box Office Results (November 21-23)

It was a fascinating opening for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1. As expected, it managed the largest opening of 2014 with $122.6 million, easily besting the $100M that Transformers: Age of Extinction took in this summer. However, it was easily the lowest opening of the franchise by nearly $30M. This means it came in well below my generous $155.8M prediction. One must wonder if there’s some franchise fatigue here and it remains to be seen how the third entry in the series holds up in subsequent weekends.

Big Hero 6 was second with $20.1 million, a bit below my $22.4M projection. The Disney hit has taken in $135M so far and should find its way past $200M and more.

Interstellar was third with $15.3 million, just below my $16.3M estimate. The Christopher Nolan pic stands at $120M and is likely to struggle to reach $200M.

Dumb and Dumber To fell hard from the top spot with $14 million in its sophomore frame, below my $16M prediction. It’s earned $57M so far and is unlikely to reach $100M.

Gone Girl was fifth with $2.8 million, just under my $3.2M estimate. Its total is at $156M. Beyond the Lights was sixth in weekend #2 with $2.6 million, under my $3.3M projection. It’s made just $10M.

That’s all for now, folks! Enjoy your turkey and, hopefully, a movie!

Box Office Predictions: November 21-23

There’s only one new game in town at the box office this weekend and it’s a biggie: The Hunger Games, Mockingjay – Part 1, the third installment of the blockbuster franchise. You can find my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/15/the-hunger-games-mockingjay-part-1-box-office-prediction/

Mockingjay should have no problem having the biggest opening weekend of 2014 as it only needs to outdo the $100M debut accomplished by Transformers: Age of Extinction. I have it premiering between what 2012’s original ($152M) and its sequel Catching Fire ($158M) started at. The film is also highly likely to become the year’s highest grosser when all is said and done, surpassing Guardians of the Galaxy.

As for holdovers, current #1 Dumb and Dumber To is likely to suffer the largest drop of the group. With its weak B- Cinemascore grade, word of mouth should be tepid and many moviegoers may have anxiously chose to get their Harry and Lloyd fix early. It should find itself in a battle with Interstellar (in weekend #3) for the three spot.

That should allow Disney’s hit Big Hero 6 to remain number two while Beyond the Lights and Gone Girl should fight it out for #5.

And with that – we’ll do a top 6 predictions for this weekend:

1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $155.8 million

2. Big Hero 6

Predicted Gross: $22.4 million (representing a drop of 35%)

3. Interstellar

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. Dumb and Dumber To

Predicted Gross: $16 million (representing a drop of 55%)

5. Beyond the Lights

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million (representing a drop of 47%)

6. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million (representing a drop of 28%)

Box Office Results (November 14-16)

The classic comedy reunion of Carrey and Daniels proved to be a fruitful one as Dumb and Dumber To opened quite well 20 years after the original. The critically panned sequel made $36.1 million, above my $29.2M projection. As mentioned, audiences don’t appear to like what they’ve seen and it should fall off rather quickly.

In second, Big Hero 6 made $34.6 million in its sophomore frame – a bit under my $38.9M prediction. Disney’s animated hit has hauled in $110M so far.

Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar was third in its second weekend with $28.3 million, right on pace with my $28.9M estimate. It’s taken in $97M at press time.

The romantic musical drama Beyond the Lights had a dim opening with just $6.2 million for fourth place, not coming close to my $11.4M. The pic simply didn’t connect with its intended audience, despite mostly positive reviews and an A Cinemascore grade.

Rounding the top five – David Fincher’s Gone Girl with $4.5 million. My prediction? $4.5M (pat on back)! It’s up to $152M domestically.

And that’s all for now, loyal readers!

Box Office Predictions: November 14-16

A comedy sequel 20 years in the making and a musical romantic drama hit the marketplace this weekend as Dumb and Dumber To and Beyond the Lights make their debuts. You can read my detailed predictions on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/09/dumb-and-dumber-to-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/09/beyond-the-lights-box-office-prediction/

My prediction for Dumb To is a bit lower than that of others and it stands a chance of opening #1. However, my estimate puts in a dogfight with Interstellar for the runner-up position with Disney’s Big Hero 6 remaining atop the charts. Hero should experience a smallish decline while Interstellar could lose close to 40% of its opening audience.

I’m predicting Beyond the Lights has a healthy debut at #4 (though others are putting it considerably lower than my projection) while Gone Girl should round out the top five.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Big Hero 6

Predicted Gross: $38.9 million (representing a drop of 30%)

2. Dumb and Dumber To

Predicted Gross: $29.2 million

3. Interstellar

Predicted Gross: $28.9 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Beyond the Lights

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 29%)

Box Office Results (November 7-9)

Two big new releases saw their debuts this past weekend and both managed to open under my estimates.

Disney’s Big Hero 6, as predicted, opened in first with a sturdy $56.2 million, a bit shy of my $61.4M estimate. Still, the animated pic should anticipate a robust run ahead.

Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar performed decently, but undeniably below most expectations. It earned $47.5 million, well under my $57.2M estimate (which was lower than plenty of other prognosticators). Since its Wednesday IMAX roll out, it’s made $49.6M. This opening indicates that Interstellar could struggle to reach $200M domestically, which would be a letdown.

In third was Gone Girl with $6.2 million in weekend #6, just over my $5.4M estimate. The David Fincher hit has amassed an impressive $145M so far.

I incorrectly didn’t have the eventual #4 or #5 in my top five as Ouija was fourth with $5.8 million and Fury fifth with $5.6 million. Their respective totals stand at $43M and $69M.

I had Nightcrawler in third, but it dropped to seventh in weekend #2. The Jake Gyllenhall grossed $5.3 million, on pace with my $5.4M projection and has earned $19M at press time.

As for the animated The Book of Life, I didn’t quite anticipate how much Big Hero 6 would eat into its audience. It grossed just $2.7 million for a tenth place showing, while I predicted it’d be fifth with $5.3M. Its total is at $45 million.

That’s all for now, friends!

Box Office Predictions: November 7-9

After a sleepy Halloween weekend at the box office, November will bring some much needed fireworks to the multiplex as two eagerly awaited release debut Friday. They are Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi epic Interstellar and Disney’s animated Big Hero 6. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/01/interstellar-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/01/big-hero-6-box-office-prediction/

The big question is: which one will open #1? I have Interstellar just outdoing what Gravity accomplished last year, while putting Big Hero 6 roughly in the middle of the opening weekends of Wreck-It Ralph and Frozen. That means I’m predicting Hero will edge out Interstellar for the top spot, though other prognosticators feel differently.

As for the remainder of the top five, there should be a grouping of pics that all make in the $5M range jockeying for position. I’ll predict current #1 Ouija and #3 Fury drop out.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Big Hero 6

Predicted Gross: $61.4 million

2. Interstellar

Predicted Gross: $57.2 million

3. Nightcrawler

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. The Book of Life

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 31%)

Box Office Results (October 31-November 2)

As mentioned, it was a quiet weekend at the box office as Ouija managed to stay #1. The critically reviled horror flick took in $10.7 million in weekend #2, ahead of my $8.8M estimate. It’s taken in $46 million so far, which is terrific considering its tiny budget.

The critically acclaimed Jake Gyllenhall thriller Nightcrawler debuted in second with a decent $10.4 million, above my $8.1M projection. While reviewers dug it, its weak B- Cinemascore indicates a rather tough road ahead.

Other holdovers all managed to outpace my predictions for the weekend. Fury was third with $8.8 million (I predicted $7.7M). It’s taken in $60 million so far. Gone Girl was fourth with $8.4 million – compared to my $7.4M estimate. It’s up to $136M domestically and has become David Fincher’s highest grossing film stateside. The Book of Life was fifth with $8.2 million, compared to my $7.1M projection (it stands at $40M).

In weekend two, Keanu Reeves’s action pic John Wick was sixth at $7.9 million, in line with my $7.3M prediction. Its two week total is at $27M. Bill Murray’s St. Vincent help up considerably better than my $4.6M estimate as it earned $7.2 million. The comedy/drama has made $19M. In eighth was Alexander and his long title of a bad day with $6.5 million, ahead of my $4.4M projection. It’s earned $53M.

On the other hand, when it came to newbies – I vastly gave two of them too much credit. The Nicole Kidman/Colin Firth thriller Before I Go to Sleep stumbled with only $1.8 million for a 15th place debut. I predicted $3.5M. And the 10th anniversary re-release of Saw gained no traction with a pathetic $650,000 for a 20th place opening. I thought it would manage $4.1M. Oops.

That’s all for now, friends!

Box Office Predictions: October 31-November 2

The Halloween weekend is shaping up to be a tepid yet unpredictable one at the box office. There are three new entries: the Jake Gyllenhall crime pic Nightcrawler, Nicole Kidman/Colin Firth thriller Before I Go to Sleep, and the 10th anniversary re-release of Saw. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/nightcrawler-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/before-i-go-to-sleep-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/saw-10th-anniversary-box-office-prediction/

None of these newbies is expected to scare up much business. Added to the misery: all holdovers should dip below double digits, assuming current champ Ouija suffers the typical horror flick big drop. That means that my estimates reflect the #1 movie for this weekend will fail to reach past $10M for the first time since September 2012 when horror pic The Possession managed to open first with just over $9 million. Simply put, this is a dull weekend at the multiplex until November heavy hitters Interstellar, Big Hero 6, Dumb and Dumber To, and Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 open.

Depending on what happens, it could be a free for all for the #1 position as the difference between my #1 and #6 are a mere $1.7M apart. For this weekend, I’ll do a rare top ten predictions and we’ll see how it all shakes out:

1. Ouija

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 56%)

2. Nightcrawler

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

3. Fury

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. John Wick

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)

6. The Book of Life

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 38%)

7. St. Vincent

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)

8. Alexander and the Horrible, Terrible, No Good, Very Bad Day

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million (representing a drop of 38%)

9. Saw 10th Anniversary

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

10. Before I Go to Sleep

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

Box Office Results (October 24-26)

As expected, the pre-Halloween weekend allowed critically reviled Ouija took open #1 with $19.8 million, under my $24.9M projection. With a tiny budget, however, this will reap a nice cash flow for its studio.

Keanu Reeves saw a better than expected opening for his critically acclaimed actioner John Wick, which debuted second with $14.4 million (above my $11M estimate). The lackluster Cinemascore grade of B, though, portends it probably will fade rather quickly.

Brad Pitt’s Fury dropped to third with $13.3 million in weekend two, under my $14.8M estimate. It’s earned $46M in 10 days.

Gone Girl was fourth in its fourth weekend with $11 million, in line with my $11.6M projection. The hit has earned $124M so far.

The animated feature The Book of Life was fifth in its sophomore frame with $10 million, just below my $11.3M prediction. It’s two week total stands at $30M.

Finally, Bill Murray’s St. Vincent expanded nationwide and took in a respectable $7.7 million, not matching my $8.6M estimate.

That’s all for now!

Box Office Predictions: October 24-26

Horror and action fans have newbies to feast on this weekend as Ouija and John Wick open Friday, attempting to displace Fury from its perch atop the box office. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/19/ouija-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/19/john-wick-box-office-prediction/

I believe the Halloween season should allow Ouija to make it to #1, though my estimate is slightly higher than others I’ve seen. Being that it’s a horror flick, it could also surpass my expectations. If only there was a board game I could ask about it…

As far as John Wick, I’m not expecting much out of it as I don’t think it’s been marketed well enough to make it a must see among action fans.

Fury may experience a smallish decline next weekend and I anticipate the same for both Gone Girl and The Book of Life.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. Ouija

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

2. Fury

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (representing a drop of 37%)

3. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. The Book of Life

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. John Wick

Predicted Gross: $11 million

Box Office Results (October 17-19)

As expected, Brad Pitt’s Fury opened in first place with a respectable though unspectacular $23.7 million, a bit below my $26.4M projection. With decent reviews and an A- Cinemascore grade, it should hold up reasonably well in subsequent weekends.

Megahit Gone Girl slipped to second in its third weekend with $17.5 million, right on par with my $17.6M estimate. The David Fincher pic has amassed $106M so far.

The animated feature The Book of Life opened in third with a solid $17 million, slightly above my $15.6M prediction. Like most kiddie pics, it should hold up well for the foreseeable future (at least until Big Hero 6 opens).

Alexander and the Horrible, Terrible, No Good, Very Bad Day was fourth in its sophomore weekend with $11.4 million, just below my $12.5M estimate. It’s taken in $36 million in ten days and may reach around $65M domestic.

Opening with a thud in fifth was the Nicholas Sparks adaptation The Best of Me with just $10 million, well under my generous $17.8M projection. The poorly reviewed romantic drama marks the worst opening ever for a Sparks adapted novel. Perhaps opening it in February would’ve been smarter.

Slipping from second to sixth was Dracula Untold with $9.9 million, close to my $10.7M prediction. The Universal monster pic has taken in $40 million in two weeks and should finish with about $60M.

That’s all for now, my friends!

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