Tag: Box Office Results

August 11-13 Box Office Predictions

The box office bonanza that is Barbenheimer looks to return to the 1-2 positions as waterlogged horror entry The Last Voyage of the Demeter is the only newcomer this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Last Voyage of the Demeter Box Office Prediction

Demeter may struggle to make de-money (I apologize). Besides the rather bad title, I’m not seeing this have much bite with genre fans. My mid single digits projection puts it in fifth… distantly.

Barbie should have no trouble maintaining the top spot for the fourth weekend in a row. After scoring the 11th largest third frame in domestic history, my $30M+ take gives it the 11th best fourth outing.

Oppenheimer looks to have the slightest decline of the returnees (perhaps mid 30s) and that could mean a bump from 3rd to 2nd.

That’s because current #2 Meg 2: The Trench seems poised for the heftiest dip. Its B- Cinemascore grade (compared to its predecessor’s B+) could mean a 60% plummet after its solid premiere (more on that below).

The second weekend for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (with its A Cinemascore grade) should be rosier with a mid 40s percent downgrade. If that occurs, the crimefighting reptiles might jump to 3rd with Meg in fourth.

Here’s how I see it all playing out:

1. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $30.4 million

2. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $19 million

3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

4. Meg 2: The Trench

Predicted Gross: $12 million

5. The Last Voyage of the Demeter

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (August 4-6)

I underestimated the giant shark sequel and overestimated the green that the animated reboot would make in respect to Meg 2 and Turtles. As expected, neither came anywhere close to catching Barbie.

The summer smash added another $53 million to its considerable coffers. While that’s under my take of $60.4 million, the $459 domestic cume is astonishing. It also crossed $1 billion worldwide.

Meg 2: The Trench bit off $30 million in second place. That’s well under the $45 million achieved by its predecessor five years back, but ahead of my $24.5 million forecast. The sequel, like the original, will make the bulk of its bucks overseas.

Oppenheimer was third with $29.1 million, right on track with my $29.3 million projection. The acclaimed biopic has amassed $228 million in three weeks.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem generally opened in line with expectations at $28 million from Friday to Sunday and $43 million since its Wednesday bow. I thought it might exceed those numbers and went with $36.1 million and $51.2 million, respectively.

Finally, Haunted Mansion played to empty houses in weekend #2 with a 62% fall in fifth to $9.2 million (I said $11.4 million). The tepid two-week tally is $42 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Keep an eye on the blog this week for my prediction posts on Blue Beetle and Strays and listen to my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your preferred streaming platform…

August 4-6 Box Office Predictions

Pizza loving reptilian crimefighters are back and a giant shark wreaks havoc on humans and animals (again) as Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and Meg 2: The Trench open wide this week. You can peruse my detailed predictions posts on the newcomers here:

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Box Office Prediction
Meg 2: The Trench Box Office Prediction

Turtles is getting the best reviews of any picture in the 30 year plus franchise as the animated reboot opens on Wednesday. With positive buzz and a healthy nostalgia factor, mid to high 30s over the traditional weekend and a five-day haul topping $50 million appears to be an achievable level of green.

The competition from Donatello, Michelangelo, Raphael, and Leonardo could hurt Meg 2 a tad. While the 2018 original premiered with $45 million, a mid 20s gross might be all that the sequel bites off.

This means the newbies may lag behind Barbie (for Turtles) and Oppenheimer (for Trench). Greta Gerwig’s take on the iconic doll should easily spend a third weekend atop the charts after a magnificent sophomore hold (more on that below). Oppenheimer could approach nearly $30 million in its third go-round.

Following a lackluster start, Disney’s Haunted Mansion should see a dip of at least 50% for fifth place.

Here’s how I see the pieces falling into place:

1. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $60.4 million

2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $36.1 million (Friday to Sunday); $51.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $29.3 million

4. Meg 2: The Trench

Predicted Gross: $24.5 million

5. Haunted Mansion

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

Box Office Results (July 28-30)

As mentioned, Barbie was nothing to toy with in its second outing as the phenomenon made off with $93 million (ahead of my $82.6 million prediction). That’s the seventh largest sophomore weekend in box office history between The Avengers and The Super Mario Bros. Movie. My estimate above, incidentally, gives it the seventh best third frame.

Barbie only fell 43% and the same was true for Oppenheimer in second. Christopher Nolan’s Oscar contender took in $46.7 million, reaching a bit higher than my $43.8 million take. The three hour biopic has amassed $174 million thus far.

The Mouse House had another disappointment with Haunted Mansion. With mediocre reviews and scant chatter, the family fright flick was third with $24 million compared to my slightly better $25.4 million projection. Look for it to fade quickly.

Sound of Freedom was fourth with $12.8 million (I said $14.7 million) as the season’s sleeper hit is up to $149 million.

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One rounded out the top five with $10.6 million. My call? $10.6 million! In three weeks, the Tom Cruise sequel has underwhelmed with $139 million.

Finally, A24’s acclaimed low-budget horror pic Talk to Me was a robust sixth with $10.4 million. That’s well beyond my meager guesstimate of $3.6 million. Lesson learned – bet the over on this genre.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 28-30 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (07/26): A rather low reported 1900 screen count for Talk to Me has lowered my estimate from $4.8 million to $3.6 million. That likely leaves it outside of the top six.

After a historic box office weekend, July closes out with a pair of new releases in Disney’s Haunted Mansion and A24’s critically acclaimed Talk to Me. Neither are likely to dislodge the potent 1-2 punch of Barbenheimer. My detailed prediction posts on the newbies are here:

Haunted Mansion Box Office Prediction
Talk to Me Box Office Prediction

I don’t really see audiences clamoring for a fresh spin on Haunted Mansion (nearly 20 years after the one with Eddie Murphy) and buzz seems light. Family crowds should get it to a ho-hum mid 20s gross and that would place it in third.

Even if it made $30-35 million, that wouldn’t mean top two. Those spots are reserved for Barbie and Oppenheimer after their amazing starts (more on that below). The question is how far each dips in weekend #2.

For Barbie, the event status that it took on makes it somewhat naturally front loaded. A worst case decline might be around 55-60%. Considering the A Cinemascore grade and chance for repeat business, I’ll say 45-50% is more feasible and that means low to possibly mid 80s.

Oppenheimer also nabbed an A Cinemascore grade and perhaps some adult viewers are content for the IMAX screenings to be a bit less packed. I’ll say it doesn’t quite fall 50% with a take of over $40 million.

Sound of Freedom should continue its meager percentage decreases while Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One hopes to right the ship after a turbulent two weeks. They should place fourth and fifth, respectively.

While Talk to Me is generating impressive reviews, this could be the type of A24 elevated horror experience that doesn’t bring genre fans out in droves. A lot of them just got their fright fix with Insidious: The Red Door as well.

And with that, here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:

1. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $82.6 million

2. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $43.8 million

3. Haunted Mansion

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

4. Sound of Freedom

Predicted Gross: $14.7 million

5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

Box Office Results (July 21-23)

Racking up the fourth highest financial frame in history, Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer gave us the best weekend in over four years.

Barbie captured the zeitgeist and an especially sizable female audience to the tune of $162 million, right on pace with my $160.8 million prediction. That’s the best three-day opening of 2023 and my hunch is that it will remain so. It’s also the #1 premiere for a female directed feature and 20th overall.

Oppenheimer gave Mr. Nolan his personal best third start (after The Dark Knight Rises and The Dark Knight). Blasting beyond my $65.3 million estimate, the three-hour Oscar contender amassed $82.4 million for an astonishing runner-up showing. Those packed IMAX screenings didn’t hurt.

Sound of Freedom was third as it continued its low declines with $19.8 million, just below my $21 million projection. The brilliantly marketed action thriller sits at $124 million.

And this is where the good news stops. Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning, after a less than expected opening, had a free fall from 1st to 4th. The Barbenheimer phenomenon helped it plummet 65% to $19.3 million compared to my $25.5 million call. The ten-day tally is $118 million.

Indiana Jones and the Dial Destiny and Insidious: The Red Door were fifth and sixth, respectively. Each made $6.6 million. Indy‘s four-week earnings are at $158 million while Insidious‘s three-week bounty is $71 million.

I incorrectly had Elemental in fifth, but it was seventh with $5.7 million (I said $6.7 million) for $137 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 21-23 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (07/19): Rising predictions as Barbie is elevated to $160.8M and Oppenheimer to $65.3M

In one of the most anticipated box office frames in recent memory, two awards hopefuls hoping to score massive grosses are off and running. It’s been deemed the “Barbenheimer” weekend across social media outlets as Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer premiere. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Barbie Box Office Prediction
Oppenheimer Box Office Prediction

The range of possibility for Barbie keeps rising as it appears to have captured the zeitgeist. All ages are expected to attend with a particularly gigantic female crowd and that puts my estimate at over $125 million. That would give it the second biggest three-day haul of any 2023 title behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie.

While Oppenheimer won’t reach Barbie territory, Mr. Nolan is one of the few directors whose name can open a picture and I expect that to apply with this likely Oscar hopeful. I believe it can manage a rock solid second place showing north of $50 million (the pricier IMAX showings should provide an assist).

After a smaller than anticipated debut (more on that below), Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One could fall victim to the shiny newcomers. I have it dropping over 50%. I do expect it will level off nicely in August and eventually post numbers similar to predecessor Fallout from 2018.

Sound of Freedom landed a jaw dropping second weekend figure when it rose 39%. That’s something we simply don’t see in the summer months (and hardly ever in any season). Truth be told, I have no clue what this anomaly will post in its third frame. I’ll guesstimate a 20-25% decline.

Elemental seems poised for a minimal dip compared to fellow holdovers Insidious: The Red Door and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and that might keep it in fifth position.

Here’s how I envision that top 5 shaking out:

1. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $160.8 million

2. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $65.3 million

3. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Predicted Gross: $25.5 million

4. Sound of Freedom

Predicted Gross: $21 million

5. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

Box Office Results (July 14-16)

Tom Cruise’s seventh adventure as IMF agent Ethan Hunt came in under projections and unable to set franchise records as many figured it would. That includes this blogger. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One made $54.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $78.4 million when factoring in the five-day tally since it opened on Wednesday. That’s considerably below my respective estimates – $72.7 million and $102.3 million. It played more like the sequel to series predecessor Fallout from 2018 and less like Cruise’s immediate follow-up to the phenomenon that was last summer’s Top Gun: Maverick. The earnings left it under Fallout‘s franchise best three-day marker of $61 million.

In the runner-up slot, Sound of Freedom astonished everyone with its near 40% jump to $27.2 million in its sophomore outing. That’s, ahem, more than my $12.1 million prediction as the Angel Studios action thriller is up to $85 million since its July 4th beginning. No one saw these kind of financial fireworks and it could hit $200 million when all is said and done.

Insidious: The Red Door went from 1st to 3rd with an understandable 61% plummet to $13 million. The horror sequel actually held up sturdier than my $11.4 million estimate and the two-week total is $58 million.

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny was fourth in weekend 3 with $12.2 million (I was close at $12.7 million). The subpar tally is $145 million.

Finally, Elemental rounded out the top five with a scant 9% decrease at $9 million compared to my $7.9 million prediction. It’s now at a respectable $125 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… may all your Barbenheimer dreams come true…

July 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Tom Cruise hopes to follow up the biggest hit of his career with a franchise best opening for the signature franchise as Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One opens on Wednesday. It is the only newcomer out and you can peruse detailed prediction post on it here:

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Box Office Prediction

Cruise’s star power is the highest it’s been in years coming off the nearly billion and a half plus earning Top Gun: Maverick from last summer. In order to post the largest start among the seven missions, Reckoning will need to top the $61 million made by predecessor Fallout in 2018. I’m projecting it will do so with over $10 million to spare and bring in over $100 million when counting its Wednesday and Thursday numbers.

The real battle should be for second place. Coming off a surprise victory, Insidious: The Red Door should experience the heftiest decline (mid 60s) of the top five. This might cause a drop of 1st to 4th if Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny falls in the 50-55% range.

Sound of Freedom, the thriller from upstart Angel Studios, was the real story of the previous frame (more on that below). With an A+ Cinemascore grade, it should have the smallest decline other than Elemental in fifth position. If the dip is lower than my estimated 40%, it might just manage to rise from third to second. I’ll give Indy the slight edge. However, it might be worth keeping an eye on daily grosses throughout the week.

Here’s how I see the high five playing out:

1. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Predicted Gross: $72.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $102.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

3. Sound of Freedom

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

4. Insidious: The Red Door

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

Box Office Results (July 7-9)

As mentioned, horror fans were ready for scares as Insidious: The Red Door opened impressively. The fifth pic in the series which started in 2010 posted the second highest debut behind #2 in 2013 with $33 million. That’s beyond my $25.2 million prediction as the Sony/Blumhouse production has already doubled its reported $16 million budget.

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny was second in weekend #2 after its lackluster beginning. Sliding 55%, the $27.4 million gross was on pace with my $28 million take. The fifth go-round in this franchise is at $122 million after ten disappointing days for Disney.

The aforementioned Sound of Freedom employed shrewd marketing tactics that included a pay it forward method where viewers could purchase tickets for others. Jim Caviezel’s tale of taking on human traffickers reached its intended conservative and faith-based crowd and then some. The Friday to Sunday haul was $19.6 million for third place, easily outpacing my $12.5 million estimate. Since its unveiling on Tuesday, July 4th, the total is $41 million. Needless to say, Angel Studios has established itself as a player in the box office game.

Elemental was fourth with $10 million, ahead of my $8 million projection. Pixar’s latest finally crossed the century mark at $109 million.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse rounded out the top five with $8 million (I said $7.8 million) for $357 million overall.

Finally, critically acclaimed raunchy comedy Joy Ride stalled. It was sixth with just $5.8 million compared to my $8.4 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 7-9 Box Office Predictions

After a subpar start, Harrison Ford’s fifth go-round as the iconic fedora clad archaeologist hopes to repeat at #1. The fifth edition of a horror franchise could disrupt that as Insidious: The Red Door swings in. We also have the critically acclaimed raunchy comedy Joy Ride and action pic Sound of Freedom from upstart Angel Studios. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Insidious: The Red Door Box Office Prediction
Joy Ride Box Office Prediction
Sound of Freedom Box Office Prediction

After a lackluster haul (more on that below), Dr. Jones and company might see a sophomore drop in the low 50s. While the B+ Cinemascore grade exceeds the B that crowds gave predecessor Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull, it still indicates middling enthusiasm moving forward. My high 20s take does mean a repeat performance atop the charts.

That’s because I have Insidious: The Red Door in the mid 20s. While that’s under the $29 million that The Last Key opened with in 2018, it is still a fine result for the 13-year-old franchise.

The weekend’s wild card is Sound of Freedom. Jim Caviezel’s turn as a vigilante taking on human traffickers is being championed by faith-based and conservative groups. This resulted in a terrific $14 million bounty when it started on July 4th. How it legs out is anyone’s guess and I’m going with a low double digits Friday-Sunday number. That would put it solidly in third.

As for Joy Ride, critics are being kind and the studio is hoping for a Crazy Rich Asians style sleeper hit. The hard R rating could prevent that and my sub $10 million projection puts it in fourth just ahead of animated holdovers Elemental and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

And with that, here’s how I foresee the top 6 shaking out:

1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Predicted Gross: $28 million

2. Insidious: The Red Door

Predicted Gross: $25.2 million

3. Sound of Freedom

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

4. Joy Ride

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $8 million

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (June 30-July 2)

Considering Crystal Skull in 2008 made off with $100 million for its Friday to Sunday portion of a holiday weekend, the $60.3 million for Dial of Destiny is a major letdown for Disney. I wasn’t much more generous at $65.3 million. When it premiered in Cannes over a month ago, its mediocre reaction set the table for a disappointing gross. Perhaps more importantly is that it didn’t play for younger audiences whose reverence for the series isn’t matched by the 40 and up crowd.

Disney/Pixar’s Elemental, after a troubling start, continued to level off nicely in weekend #3. It was second with $12.1 million, in line with my $12.7 million prediction for a three-week $89 million tally.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was third with $12 million compared to my $13.5 million estimate. The Sony juggernaut has amassed $340 million.

Jennifer Lawrence’s No Hard Feelings was fourth with $7.8 million (I went higher at $89 million). The ten-day take is $29 million which is fairly decent for a genre that’s struggled in recent times.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts rounded out the top five with $7.3 million. I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The total is $136 million.

Finally, DreamWorks Animation’s Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken was a major flop in sixth with only $5.5 million. I was kinder at $7.8 million. With serious kiddie competition, parents opted for leftovers like Elemental and Spidey.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 30-July 2 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (06/29): I have my estimate for Ruby Gillman from to $10.8M to $7.8M, which puts it in fifth instead of fourth.

Harrison Ford hopes to retire his iconic character with boffo box office returns as Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny whips into theaters. We also have DreamWorks Animation’s Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken seeking success amid serious competition. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be perused here:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Box Office Prediction
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken Box Office Prediction

Disney might not have done itself any favors when it screened Destiny last month at the Cannes Film Festival. The critical reaction was rather weak as it sits with 62% on Rotten Tomatoes. The fifth entry in the franchise’s much maligned 2008 predecessor Kingdom of the Crystal Skull managed 77%. I suspect that expectations should be tempered and I have it hitting mid 60s for what would be considered a significantly disappointing beginning.

Slots 2-4 should be quite animated with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Elemental losing around 30-35%. That could put both of them ahead of Ruby. The fact that it’s not based on known IP won’t help and neither will the level of competition. I have it barely topping $10 million for a fourth place start.

No Hard Feelings should round out the top five with a 40% range decline in its sophomore frame.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Predicted Gross: $65.3 million

2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

3. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

4. No Hard Feelings

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

5. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (June 23-25)

Thanks to the disastrous performance of The Flash (we’ll get there shortly), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swung back into 1st place in week #4. The acclaimed animated sequel took in $19 million. I was right on target with $18.9 million and it’s up to a terrific $316 million with $400 million in its sights.

Pixar’s Elemental, after a poor premiere, was on less shaky ground in its follow-up outing. The A Cinemascore grade probably helped as it dropped a commendable 38% at $18.4 million (I went lower with $16.8 million). That’s the smallest Pixar sophomore frame downslide since Up 14 years ago. The total is $65 million in ten days.

The Flash… wow. After a shockingly low $55 million opening, the DCEU debacle plunged 72% and landed in third with only $15.1 million. I was more generous at $17.5 million. The ten-day take is $87 million and it should be out of the top five in only its third go-round. Embarrassing.

Jennifer Lawrence’s raunchy comedy No Hard Feelings debuted in fourth with $15 million, exceeding my call of $11.7 million. For its genre, that’s a pretty solid haul as comedies have struggled in recent years. It should manage to hold up decently in subsequent weekends.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts rounded out the top five with $11.7 million, rising above my $9.3 million projection. The three-week gross is $123 million.

Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City expanded nationwide and nabbed the highest per theater average on the chart. The star-studded tale made an impressive $9 million and went above my $7.6 million guesstimate. It’s at $10.2 million when factoring its limited release dollars from the previous weekend.

Finally, The Little Mermaid was seventh with $8.5 million (I said $7 million) to bring its earnings to $270 million in five weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 23-25 Box Office Predictions

Following a weekend in which two high profile pictures opened far under what their respective studios hoped for, a pair of comedies debut wide attempting to find an audience. They are Jennifer Lawrence’s raunchy comedy No Hard Feelings and Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

No Hard Feelings Box Office Prediction
Asteroid City Box Office Prediction

Feelings marks Lawrence’s first headlining role in theaters since Red Sparrow over five years ago. This isn’t a genre she’s known for and comedies in general struggle to break out these days in multiplexes. It could be lucky to top $10 million and that should put it in fourth position for a soft start.

Asteroid City performed impressively in its limited NY/LA six theater engagement. Branching out to middle America is another ballgame and my estimate puts it in sixth.

As for the #1 spot… well, it gets interesting. Before The Flash premiered, the assumption was it would have two weeks to itself atop the charts. However, the Ezra Miller led DCEU adventure opened way below expectations (more on that below). With a weak B Cinemascore grade, a drop in the mid 60s could occur. If Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse sees a small decline in the 30% range, Spidey may return to the top spot over his superhero competitor. I’m guessing that will be the case.

The Flash wasn’t the only bomb as Pixar’s Elemental, for all intents and purposes, had the weakest wide release in the studio’s near 30 year history. It had an A Cinemascore grade so it may only dip in the mid to high 40s for third place.

I have Transformers: Rise of the Beasts falling around 55-60% in its third frame for fifth place with The Little Mermaid right behind Asteroid City in seventh.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million

2. The Flash

Predicted Gross: $17.5 million

3. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

4. No Hard Feelings

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

5. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

6. Asteroid City

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

7. The Little Mermaid

Predicted Gross: $7 million

Box Office Results (June 16-18)

You can read a whole slew of think pieces as to why The Flash failed so badly in its debut. I had it making $83.2 million. It… um… didn’t. The DCEU title earned an unthinkable $55 million marking a sizable disappointment for Warner Bros. Here’s a figure I can’t stop thinking about. Twelve summers ago, notorious dud Green Lantern rolled out with $53 million. Adjusted for inflation, that’s better than The Flash. Ouch.

If it weren’t for the paragraph above, there would likely be more think pieces about Elemental not connecting with audiences. The Pixar animated feature was second with just $29.6 million. I was on target with a $30.6 million prediction. On the heels of Lightyear flopping last summer, this is two under performers in a row for the Disney property.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was third with $27 million, in range with my $27.6 million call. The three-week tally is $279 million and, per above, I see it leaping to first yet again.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts tumbled 66% in weekend #2 with $20.6 million (I said $21.8 million). The ten-day take is $101 million.

The Little Mermaid rounded out the top five with $11 million, falling below my $13.8 million forecast. The Disney live-action remake has made $253 million thus far in its four weeks.

Finally, horror spoof The Blackening couldn’t translate positive reviews to brisk business. It was sixth with $6 million compared to my $7.7 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 16-18 Box Office Predictions

A trio of newcomers hits multiplexes this weekend with the much-publicized DCEU adventure The Flash, Pixar’s Elemental, and horror spoof The Blackening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

The Flash Box Office Prediction
Elemental Box Office Prediction
The Blackening Box Office Prediction

There’s little question that The Flash will bolt to #1. The question is with how much. While I don’t see it reaching nine figures, I do believe $80-90 million is within reach. It is worth noting that fresh tracking shows it could fall short of that number so keep an eye on my blog this week to see if I maintain my rosy outlook.

I don’t have a flowery vision for how Elemental will perform. After Pixar experienced a high-profile flop last summer with Lightyear, their latest could find itself in a battle with fellow animated pic Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (in its third frame) for #2. I’ll give Elemental the slight benefit of the doubt, but not by much.

Spider-Verse should only drop a spot because I believe it’ll see around a 50% fall. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts significantly exceeded my projection (more on that below). Yet it could dip in the mid 60s and that would mean a slide from 1st to 4th.

The Little Mermaid should round out the top five with a 40% drop and that brings us to The Blackening. The scary parody is reported to release in only about 1800 venues and that could limit the potential. I’ll say it doesn’t hit $10 million and is in sixth.

And with that, here’s how I envision that top 6:

1. The Flash

Predicted Gross: $83.2 million

2. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million

4. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million

5. The Little Mermaid

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

6. The Blackening

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

Box Office Results (June 9-11)

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts couldn’t match the $100M+ earnings of early franchise entries. However, it did blast past my prediction with $61 million compared to my measly $42.2 million call. That’s on the top end of its anticipated range and, like other Transformers pics, it should perform well overseas. There might just be a little juice left in the series.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse had a sturdy hold of 54% in its sophomore weekend with $55.5 million, a bit under my $58.4 million forecast. The acclaimed sequel has amassed $225 million in ten days.

The Little Mermaid was third with $23.1 million (on target with my $22.5 million take) for $229 million in three weeks.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was fourth with $7.2 million (I said $6.6 million) for an overall haul of $335 million.

Finally, The Boogeyman held up stronger in weekend #2 that I assumed with $7.1 million. I went lower at $5.8 million. The two-week tally is a so-so $24 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts will attempt to topple Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, but that could be a tall order. Beasts is the sole wide release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Box Office Prediction

The seventh entry in the franchise based on the Hasbro toy line will not have the lowest start of the bunch. That belongs and will continue to belong to Bumblebee which started with $21 million over the holidays in 2018. It may, however, have the second smallest if it fails to exceed the $44 million three-day premiere that Transformers: The Last Knight had in the summer of 2017. I am projecting it will fall under that mark.

That should leave Across the Spider-Verse in first position after an amazing rollout this past weekend (more on that below). While I think the sophomore frame dip will be more than 50%, I believe a high 50s gross will comfortably leave it atop the charts.

Holdovers will fill slots 3-5. The Little Mermaid, after an expectedly hefty second weekend fall, should level off and get above $20 million in weekend 3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 may remain fourth since it shouldn’t see a percentage drop as large as The Boogeyman‘s in its second outing.

And with that, here’s how I envision the top five:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $58.4 million

2. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

Predicted Gross: $42.2 million

3. The Little Mermaid

Predicted Gross: $22.5 million

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

5. The Boogeyman

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

Box Office Results (June 2-4)

Swinging the #2 best premiere of 2023 behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie was Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. That’s also the seventh highest animated opening ever. It built upon the goodwill from its 2018 Oscar-winning predecessor and made off with $120.6 million. That’s well beyond my projection of $96.4 million. Look for it to play well throughout the season (and it’s certainly the frontrunner to win Best Animated Feature next year).

The Little Mermaid slipped to second with $41.3 million in its sophomore frame, on track with my $40.5 million take. The ten-day gross for the live-action Disney remake is $186 million. That’s pretty decent, but its overseas earnings are underwhelming.

PG-13 horror flick The Boogeyman, based on a Stephen King short story, couldn’t pick up buzz as Spidey sucked up all the oxygen. It made $12.3 million for third, falling below my $17.7 million prediction.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was fourth with $10.6 million (I said $9.6 million) as the MCU threequel is up to $323 million after five weeks.

Fast X rounded out the top five with $9.5 million compared to my $10.1 million forecast. It’s doing better internationally, but the three-week $128 million domestic haul is unimpressive.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…