April 12-14 Box Office Predictions

A24 is looking for Civil War to be their biggest box office breakout so far when it opens this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:

In order to set the all-time opening premiere record for the studio, it needs to eclipse the low teens start Hereditary managed in 2018. That shouldn’t be a problem as I have it posting a high teens beginning. That should be enough for a #1 perch.

That means Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should slide to second after two weeks atop the charts with a high 40s-low 50s decline. The other sequel with Empire at the end – Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire – might maintain its third place position as I have current #2 Monkey Man experiencing a larger drop. I actually have Monkey sliding three spots. Kung Fu Panda 4 may manage to rise from 5th to 4th as its fall should be less than the sophomore frame of The First Omen, which had a highly disappointing debut (more on that below).

And with that, my forecast for the top 5:

1. Civil War

Predicted Gross: $18 million

2. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million

3. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

4. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

5. Monkey Man

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (April 5-7)

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, as anticipated, had an understandable 61% second weekend plummet to $31.2 million. That’s right on target with my $31.8 million prediction as the impressive two-week total is $134 million.

Dev Patel’s inaugural behind the camera project Monkey Man was runner-up and kicked off on the lower end of expectations. With $10.1 million, it came in well under my $16.6 million take.

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire was third with $9 million in its third haunting. That’s hotter than my $7.6 million projection as it has amassed $88 million.

The First Omen, as mentioned, might have been victim to horror genre overload. Despite mostly heavenly reviews, the demonic prequel was DOA with $8.3 million. I was more generous at $13.3 million.

Kung Fu Panda 4 rounded out the top five at $7.7 million (I said $6.5 million) as the animated sequel is up to $165 million in five weeks and has grossed more than parts 2 and 3 domestically already. It will not, however, match the $215 million that the original took in.

Finally, Dune: Part Two was sixth with $7.4 million (I said $6.7 million) for a six-week bounty of $265 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 5-7 Box Office Predictions

A pair of newcomers attempts to dethrone Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire from its perch atop the charts after a terrific Easter start. We have Dev Patel’s action thriller Monkey Man and horror prequel The First Omen out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Neither is likely to dislodge the Warner Bros monster mash from a second frame in first after its massive launch (more on that below). I expect New Empire to have a rather large drop in the high 50s to low 60s.

With the caveat that scary movies can exceed expectations and The First Omen could surprise, I do see Monkey Man managing a runner-up showing in the mid to high teens. Strong reviews should help propel this to solid numbers.

The First Omen may struggle a bit since its franchise doesn’t have the track record of more recent others (it’s been 18 years between entries). My low teens take puts it in firmly in third.

The 4-6 slots should be held by holdover sequels Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Dune: Part Two, and Kung Fu Panda 4 with similar earnings between the trio.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $31.8 million

2. Monkey Man

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

3. The First Omen

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

4. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

6. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

Box Office Results (March 29-31)

March ended with gargantuan results for Warner Bros as Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rose above prognoses with a fiery $8o million. That decimated my projection of $52.2 million as the fifth MonsterVerse release scored the second best premiere of the quintet behind 2014’s Godzilla.

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire had a chilling fall in weekend #2 at 65% to $15.5 million. That’s well under my generous $21.8 million prediction. The weaker B+ Cinemascore grade this Empire received seems to be reflected in the hefty drop.

Dune: Part Two was third with $11.3 million in its fifth go-round, on target with my $11 million call. The total is up to $252 million.

Kung Fu Panda 4 was fourth at $10.3 million (I said $10.6 million) for a four-week haul of $151 million.

Immaculate rounded out the top five with $3.2 million in its sophomore outing, on pace with my $3 million forecast. The overall gross is $11 million.

Finally, Arthur the King was sixth with $2.4 million compared to my $2.8 million projection. The three-week result is $19 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 29-31 Box Office Predictions

The fifth entry in the MonsterVerse series stomps into theaters this weekend with Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. It is the sole wide release newcomer over the Easter frame and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The latest battle royale between iconic creatures should easily top the charts. Predecessor Godzilla vs. Kong still faced COVID challenges in 2021 and I think Empire should have no trouble surpassing its low 30s start. My estimate puts this just ahead of 2019’s premiere for Godzilla: King of the Monsters.

After an opening right in line with expectations (more on that below), Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire should slide to second (big weekend for sequels ending in the word empire by the way). How far it dips is worth monitoring. 2016’s Ghostbusters reboot fell 54% after mediocre word-of-mouth in its sophomore outing. 2021’s Ghostbusters: Afterlife eased 45%, but it had the advantage of weekend #2 taking place over the Thanksgiving holiday. I’m basically splitting the difference with Empire experiencing a decline approaching 50%.

Holdover sequels Dune: Part Two and Kung Fu Panda 4 should populate the three and four slots with mid 40s drops. The five spot should be between Immaculate and Arthur the King.

Here’s how I have the top 6 shaking out:

1. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $52.2 million

2. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million

3. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $11 million

4. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

5. Immaculate

Predicted Gross: $3 million

6. Arthur the King

Predicted Gross: $2.8 million

Box Office Results (March 22-24)

The Ghostbusters franchise has been pretty darn consistent over the last near decade. The aforementioned reboot from 2016 with Melissa McCarthy and Kristin Wiig debuted with $46 million. Afterlife kicked off with $44 million. Frozen Empire heated up the charts with $45 million, a bit ahead of my $42.7 million prediction. As mentioned, this is generally where most prognosticators figured this would fall and even at the higher end of that range.

Dune: Part Two was second with $17.6 million, on target with my $17.4 million call. The sci-fi spectacle is up to $233 million after four weeks.

Kung Fu Panda 4 went from 1st to 3rd in its third weekend with $16.5 million, a bit below my $18.2 million call. The animated adventure has amassed $132 million thus far.

Sydney Sweeney’s fright fest Immaculate was fourth with Neon’s highest opening of all time at $5.3 million. I was close at $4.9 million. While this isn’t an overly impressive haul, it does give the studio bragging rights and helps solidify Sweeney’s status as Hollywood’s It Girl of the moment.

Arthur the King rounded out the top five with $4.2 million (I said $3.8 million) for a muted two-week tally of $14 million.

Finally, I didn’t make a projection for the critically acclaimed horror flick Late Night with the Devil. It opened in sixth with $2.8 million on just over 1000 screens and that marks a best ever for IFC Films.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 22-24 Box Office Predictions

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire hopes to heat up the box office this weekend while Immaculate looks to bring in horror fans. My detailed prediction posts on the two newcomers can be accessed here:

The fifth feature in the franchise, Empire will try to match or exceed the mid 40s earnings that 2016’s Ghostbusters and immediate predecessor Ghostbusters: Afterlife from 2021 achieved in their debuts. I have it a tad under in the low 40s for what will easily be a #1 start.

We are likely to witness a battle for second between holdovers Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two. I have each dipping in the mid to high 30s with the animated sequel barely edging the sci-fi sequel.

Immaculate is a genuine question mark. Neon’s supernatural fright fest stars Sydney Sweeney, who’s coming off the hot Anyone but You and also the cold Madame Web. It seems to be flying under the radar, but could over perform as the genre often does. My mid single digits take puts it firmly in fourth with the disappointing Arthur the King rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I think it will play out:

1. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $42.7 million

2. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

3. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million

4. Immaculate

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Arthur the King

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

Box Office Results (March 15-17)

Kung Fu Panda 4 held the crown for the second weekend in a row with $30.1 million, right on target with my $30.6 million estimate. The two-week tally puts it over the century mark at $107 million as it continues to outpace part 3.

Dune: Part Two, as expected, had a nice hold in weekend #3 with $28.5 million. I was on pace with my $29.4 million forecast as its surpassed the double century mark with $204 million.

Mark Wahlberg’s canine tale Arthur the King failed to bring in audiences with only $7.6 million, well under my $12.5 million call. I’m expecting a sophomore drop over 50% this weekend.

Imaginary held better than I assumed with $5.5 million compared to my $4.4 million projection. The teddy bear themed horror pic stands at $19 million after two outings and that’s nearly double its budget.

Faith-based Cabrini plummeted 61% in weekend #2 with $2.8 million and that’s below my $4.1 million prediction. The total is $13 million.

Finally, Kristen Stewart’s critically acclaimed crime thriller Love Lies Bleeding had a fairly anemic wide rollout in sixth with $2.4 million (I said $3.7 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Mark Wahlberg stars in dog tale Arthur the King while A24 thriller Love Lies Bleeding with Kristen Stewart expands nationwide. Those newcomers are highly unlikely to dislodge Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two from the top two positions. Detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Arthur could exceed expectations as canine content sometimes can. My lower double digits estimate puts it in third place as it hopes for word-of-mouth to keep it around for a while.

Bleeding performed well in 5 venues on the coasts, but could face headwinds as it rolls out everywhere. My forecast could put it anywhere from 4-6 though I’m banking on 6th.

The battle for #1 could be tight between Kung Fu Panda 4‘s sophomore outing and the third frame of Dune: Part Two. The former had a terrific premiere at the highest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). The second weekend dip could be 50% or a little more or less. Dune may only decline in the 40% range and that could create a photo finish. I’ll give Panda the slight edge.

Assuming Bleeding doesn’t over perform, 4-5 should be a close race between the second stands for Imaginary and Cabrini.

Here’s how I have the top 6 playing out:

1. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

2. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $29.4 million

3. Arthur the King

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

4. Imaginary

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. Cabrini

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

6. Love Lies Bleeding

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

Box Office Results (March 8-10)

DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 4 easily ruled the charts with a potent $57.9 million. I thought the long running franchise would continue its downward trend (part 3 started with $41.2 million), but I was off base with my meager $38.1 million prediction. This is actually the second best start for the series after the original’s $60.2 million in 2008.

Dune: Part Two filled the runner-up spot with $46.2 million and that’s still ahead of my $40.7 million call. The acclaimed sequel eased only 44% as its two-week tally has reached $157 million.

In third, Blumhouse horror flick Imaginary (which features a bear not doing martial arts) debuted to barely under its reported $10 million budget with $9.9 million. I was close at $10.5 million. While this doesn’t match various other genre offerings from the studio, it’s still a satisfactory figure considering the price tag.

Cabrini from Angel Studios was fourth with $7.1 million, not reaching my $8.9 million projection. The period piece biopic from the maker of Sound of Freedom hopes to post smallish drops as we head towards Easter.

Bob Marley: One Love rounded out the top five with $4 million (I went higher with $5.2 million) as this biopic has amassed $89 million after four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Kung Fu Panda 4 will attempt to kick Dune: Part Two out of the top spot this weekend and we also have Blumhouse horror flick Imaginary and faith-based biopic Cabrini debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

I am estimating that DreamWorks Animation’s Panda franchise will continue its downward trend with a high 30s start after the longest layoff between entries.

If that occurs, that likely means a 2nd place showing behind the sophomore frame of Dune: Part Two. That hotly anticipated sequel opened right in line with expectations (more on that below) and had an A Cinemascore grade. Some of its business is understandably frontloaded, but its drop could hold up sturdier than other genre fare in the high 40s to low 50s range.

Blumhouse should have another profitable fright fest with Imaginary considering its reported low budget. However, I don’t envision it premiering anywhere near the studio’s biggest earners. A low double digits gross could put it in third.

That’s unless Cabrini overperforms and it’s the weekend wild car in my view. Coming from Angel Studios and the director of last summer’s smash Sound of Freedom, this could surprise if faith-based crowds turn out in force. On the other hand, Angel’s follow-ups like After Death and The Shift have only managed mid single digits out of the gate. I’m splitting the difference and forecasting a fourth place finish.

Finally, Bob Marley: One Love should round out the top five as it attempts to reach $100 million domestically.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $40.7 million

2. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $38.1 million

3. Imaginary

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. Cabrini

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

5. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (March 1-3)

I had Dune: Part Two doubling the debut of its 2021 predecessor and that’s precisely what occurred. The sequel, which landed even better reviews than the heavily Oscar nominated original, took in $82.5 million. That’s in line with my $83.6 million prediction and just over what Oppenheimer premiered with last summer. Christopher Nolan’s biopic (which is about to be crowned Best Picture) experienced only a 43% second weekend decline. As mentioned, Dune‘s should be more, but perhaps not by too much.

After two weeks in first, Bob Marley: One Love was second with $7.4 million and that’s right on target with my $7.5 million call. That biopic now stands at $82 million after three weeks.

Ordinary Angels remained in third with $3.8 million, falling shy of my $4.9 million projection. The faith-based drama with Hilary Swank has $12 million in its coffers after two weeks.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 was fourth with $3.2 million (I said $2.9 million). Since its Leap Day Thursday opening, the total is $4 million.

Finally, superheroine flop Madame Web was fifth with $3.1 million (I said $2.9 million) for a mere $40 million in its three frames of release.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 1-3 Box Office Predictions

The month of March blows in some much needed excitement at the box office with Dune: Part Two storming theaters. It looks to dominate the charts with easily the largest debut of 2024 thus far and my detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:

My low to mid 80s take has it doubling the premiere gross of its 2021 predecessor (which had COVID limitations and debuted simultaneously on Max). Those restrictions are gone and it’s generating stronger reviews than part one, which managed 10 Oscar nominations.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 is available just like the first six shows at multiplexes beginning Thursday. My Friday to Sunday estimate puts it in a battle for fourth place with comic book based dud Madame Web‘s third frame.

Current two-week champ Bob Marley: One Love should slide a spot to 2nd with a mid 40s dip. Ordinary Angels is likely to stay third and with an A+ Cinemascore grade, its decline could be minimal (maybe mid to high teens range).

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training was last weekend’s biggest newcomer and had the largest per theater average of all. Like its predecessor To the Swordsmith Village, it should find itself out of the high five as it’s primarily playing as a one-week engagement.

Here’s how I see the top 5 breaking down:

1. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $83.6 million

2. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

3. Ordinary Angels

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

4. Madame Web

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

5. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (February 23-25)

Biopic Bob Marley: One Love felt the love again in first place with $13.4 million in its sophomore outing. It fell an understandable 53% and didn’t match my rosier $16.2 million projection. The overall tally is a buoyant $71 million.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashita Training managed to outdo Swordsmith by around a million bucks with $11.5 million for the runner-up spot. That’s also the margin that it outpaced my $10.5 million call.

Ordinary Angels took in $6.1 million for third, falling below my $8 million forecast. The faith-based drama, as mentioned, is garnering praise from audiences and it could experience small declines in the coming weeks.

Madame Web, after a troubling start, dropped 61% for fourth at $5.9 million (just over my $5.6 million prediction). The subpar total since Valentine’s Day is $35 million.

Migration rounded out the top five with $2.8 million (I said $2.9 million) for $120 million in ten weeks.

Argylle was sixth with $2.7 million compared to my $3 million guesstimate as the spy comedy has made $41 million in four weeks.

Wonka was seventh with $2.4 million. I didn’t project a number for it and the holiday confection hit $214 million after 11 weeks.

Finally, Ethan Coen’s road comedy Drive-Away Dolls stalled in eighth with $2.4 million, in line with my $2.6 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 23-25 Box Office Predictions

Bob Marley: One Love, after a terrific opening well above expectations, looks to make it two weeks in a row atop the charts. Competition comes from Japan’s animated sequel Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training, inspirational drama Ordinary Angels with Hilary Swank, and Ethan Coen’s road comedy Drive-Away Dolls. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies here:

With a A Cinemascore grade, Marley could be loved enough for a mid to high 40s decline in its sophomore outing. That should put it in the low to mid teens and I figure that’ll be strong enough for the gold.

I have Demon Slayer in the runner-up slot just past $10 million (similar to what predecessor To the Swordsmith Village achieved).

The wildcard might be Ordinary Angels. Faith-based titles can often exceed estimates and I wouldn’t be shocked if it rises to above $10 million. My current projection has it in third.

While Marley outperformed predictions, Madame Web got off to a rocky start and a concerning C+ Cinemascore grade. I’m envisioning a mid 60s plummet and fourth place.

Argylle should round out the top five in a close call with Migration. Then there’s Drive-Away Dolls. Despite a reported 2000 theater rollout, promotion has been scant and it might have to settle for seventh behind Migration.

Here’s how I envision the top 7 playing out:

1. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

2. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

3. Ordinary Angels

Predicted Gross: $8 million

4. Madame Web

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

5. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $3 million

6. Migration

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

7. Drive-Away Dolls

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (February 16-19)

The affection was evident over Valentine’s Day/President’s Day for Bob Marley: One Love as the biopic (despite so-so reviews) blew away forecasts with $33.6 million from Friday to Monday and $51.5 million since its Wednesday start on Valentine’s Day. That’s way beyond my respective takes of $19.2 million and $28.9 million.

Madame Web got tangled up in bad buzz and poor critical reaction and the financial figures followed suit. Dakota Johnson’s superhero tale made only $15.3 million for the four-day and $26 million since Wednesday. I was more generous at $21.5 million and $30.7 million. As mentioned, look for it to fade rapidly.

Argylle was third with $5.8 million over the long holiday compared to my $4.5 million call. The three-week total is $37 million.

The fourth and fifth place performers were holiday holdovers that I incorrectly had outside of the top five. Migration made $5.3 million to bring its haul to $116 million while Wonka added $4.6 million for $211 million overall.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4-6 was sixth with $3.9 million, not matching my $6.1 million projection. It opened on Thursday so the total is $4.7 million.

Finally, The Beekeeper was seventh at $3.7 million (I said $2.6 million) for $60 million in its coffers.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 16-19 Box Office Predictions

As for the trailer for prequel A Quiet Place: Day One debuted this week, multiplexes themselves were even quieter over the Super Bowl weekend. With the Valentine and President’s Day holiday hitting, studios are hoping business gets louder. We have Spider-Man Universe flick Madame Web starring Dakota Johnson and musical biopic Bob Marley: One Love looking to place 1-2 when they open on February 14th. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

The top 3 should all be newbies with faith-based The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4-6 beginning on Thursday. On the day before, Madame Web hopes to break a recent run of so-so starts for comic book adaptations. That could be a tall order. I have it opening in the low 20s over the 4-day with low30s when counting the six-day output.

Marley might be close behind with low 20s from Friday to Monday and high 20s when counting Wednesday and Thursday. If it manages to over perform (which could be tricky considering the lackluster reviews), it might contend for the top spot if Web doesn’t match its fairly meager expectations.

Episodes 1-3 of The Chosen‘s fourth season made nearly $6 million from Friday to Sunday in the first weekend of February. Grosses could be about the same even with the extra day thrown in.

Holdovers Argylle and The Beekeeper are likely to populate the remainder of the high five with last weekend’s newcomer Lisa Frankenstein dropping out altogether (more on that below).

Here’s how I think it’ll look and keep in mind that these projections are for Friday thru Monday:

1. Madame Web

Predicted Gross: $21.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate); $30.7 million (Wednesday to Monday estimate)

2. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate); $28.9 million (Wednesday to Monday estimate)

3. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

4. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

5. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (February 9-11)

It was the weakest frame since early December 2022 as spy action comedy Argylle plummeted 64% and still managed to stay #1. It made $6.2 million and was right on target with my $6.1 million prediction. The subpar two-week take is $28 million.

Horror comedy Lisa Frankenstein was the only newcomer and it was DOA in second with a putrid $3.6 million. That’s well below my $6.8 million forecast and it should experience a hefty decline in subsequent frames.

The Beekeeper was third at $3.3 million (I said $3.5 million) as Jason Statham’s steady grosser hit $54 million after five weeks.

Holiday holdover Wonka was fourth with $3 million, a shade under my $3.4 million projection. The total is $205 million in its ninth go-round.

Finally, animated Migration rounded out the top five in weekend #8 with $2.9 million compared to my $3.2 million guesstimate. It’s up to $110 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Madame Web Box Office Prediction

Dakota Johnson headlines as the title character in Madame Web, Sony’s fourth feature in their Spider-Man Universe on February 14th. The studio is hoping its grosses are closer to Venom and its sequel than Morbius. S.J. Clarkson directs with a supporting cast including Sydney Sweeney (hot off Anyone but You), Celeste O’Connor, Isabela Merced, and Tahar Rahim.

Ms. Johnson is no stranger to the Valentine’s Day/President’s Day weekend frame considering the Fifty Shades trilogy. Web will attempt to bring in a female contingent, but also a sizable male crowd craving some comic book action.

Debuting on Wednesday, my forecast includes the Friday to Monday long weekend projection along with its two extra days. A best case scenario might be in the $35-40 million neighborhood for the six-day total. I’m skeptical it gets that high. A low to mid 20s start for the four-day and high 20s to low 30s range over the longer haul sounds likelier.

Madame Web opening weekend prediction: $21.5 million (Friday to Monday); $30.7 million (Wednesday to Monday)

For my Bob Marley: One Love prediction, click here: