February 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Horror comedy Lisa Frankenstein looks to top the charts in what should be a sleepy box office frame. It’s the only new wide release hitting cineplexes and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

While I don’t have Frankenstein even achieving $10 million, my forecast is enough to put it in first position. Let’s be frank – Sunday should especially be a dead zone as many moviegoers will be preoccupied by the Chiefs and 49ers.

Argylle was ushered in as the champ this past frame (more on that below), but it underwhelmed. With a troubling C+ Cinemascore grade, I’m thinking a sophomore plummet in the range of 60% is possible.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3 had a fruitful runner-up beginning. Yet it appears poised to drop from the high five considering its decline should be massive (probably in the 75-80% arena like its previous episodic releases).

That could leave holdovers The Beekeeper, Wonka, and Migration in their current 3-5 places. This is with a big caveat: Dune is scheduled to be re-released this weekend ahead of the sequel’s March bow and I’m waiting to see a count. I certainly believe it’s feasible that it manages a top 5 showing. Disney is also putting Turning Red back in venues. I’m less convinced it makes the five, but it’s doable. I will edit this post if I put either of them in (probably on Wednesday).

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Lisa Frankenstein

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

2. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

3. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

4. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

5. Migration

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (February 2-4)

As mentioned, Matthew Vaughn’s spy action comedy Argylle had a hollow victory at #1 with $17.4 million. That’s a tad under my $18.3 million call and not an impressive gross considering the reported king’s ransom of $200 million that Apple paid for the rights.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3 had pleasing viewership with $5.9 million from Friday to Sunday – just ahead of my $5.4 million take. Counting its Thursday start, it has earned $7.3 million.

The Beekeeper was third in weekend #4 with $5.2 million (I went with $4.8 million) for $49 million total.

Wonka was fourth after 8 weeks with $4.6 million. My prediction? $4.6 million! The overall tally is $201 million.

Migration rounded out the top five at $4.1 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The animated tale is up to $106 million after 7 weeks.

Mean Girls fell from 1st to 6th after three weeks atop the charts with $3.8 million compared to my $4.3 million projection. It has made $66 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 2-4 Box Office Predictions

Matthew Vaughn’s star-studded spy comedy Argylle will end the Mean Girls three-week reign atop the charts as February kicks off at the box office. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

After a dreadful end to January where filmgoers were especially preoccupied with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Taylor Swift, Brock Purdy, Lions, and Ravens, a low 20s start for Argylle should inject at least some life into multiplexes.

The runner-up spot could be another newcomer. Christian series The Chosen is debuting the first three episodes of its fourth season beginning on Thursday. I didn’t do an individual write-up for it, but the Friday to Sunday portion should get to mid or even high single digits. That would likely give it the 2 slot.

Holdovers will populate the rest of the top five. I’m assuming The Beekeeper and Wonka will have smaller declines than current champ Mean Girls. If my estimates pan out, that could mean a 1st to 5th place drop for said Girls.

Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million

2. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

3. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

4. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

5. Mean Girls

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

Box Office Results (January 26-28)

As mentioned, it was a tepid end to January as studios sat the weekend out. In fact, it was the weakest frame in nearly two years. The top five features did all manage to slightly exceed my projections.

Mean Girls took in $6.9 million for subdued bragging rights over my $6 million call. The three-week tally is $60 million as it hopes to match the $86 million earned by the original 20 years ago (not adjusted for inflation).

The Beekeeper nearly grabbed the top spot at $6.6 million, dipping a mere 22% in its third outing. I went lower at $5.1 million. Its better than anticipated gross is $41 million.

Wonka was third with $5.6 million, in range with my $5.3 million call. The seven-week take for the largest holiday hit is $194 million. It should hit $200 million later this week.

Migration was fourth with $4.8 million (I said $4.5 million) as it crossed the century mark after six weeks with $101 million.

Anyone but You rounded out the top five as it continued its impressive run at $4.6 million (I forecasted $4.2 million). The rom com is up to $71 million since its Christmas bow.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 26-28 Box Office Predictions

The month of January seems destined to go out with a whimper as thriller Miller’s Girl with Martin Freeman and Jenna Ortega is the sole wide release. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The top five may look very similar to this previous frame except the earnings will be even smaller. Mean Girls could manage a third weekend at #1 with a drop close to 50%. If it drops more precipitously, that could open the door for Wonka or The Beekeeper to vault over it.

Migration and Anyone but You are likely to stay put in fourth and fifth.

You’ll notice I haven’t discussed Miller’s Girl yet and that’s because my $2.2 million leaves it on the outside looking in.

Here’s my top 5 forecast:

1. Mean Girls

Predicted Gross: $6 million

2. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

3. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

4. Migration

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

5. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (January 19-21)

Mean Girls, despite a hefty 59% drop, was perched in 1st for the second weekend with $11.6 million. That’s just under my $12.6 million prediction as the ten-day gross reached $50 million.

Jason Statham’s The Beekeeper was the runner-up again with $8.6 million (right on target with my $8.7 million projection) for $31 million thus far.

Wonka was third with an additional $6.7 million (I said $6 million) to bring its haul to $187 million with $200 million approaching.

Migration made $5.4 million for fourth. I went with $4.9 million as the animated feature is getting to nine digits with $94 million.

Anyone but You continued its impressive run in fifth with $5.4 million, on pace with my $5.5 million call. The tally is $64 million.

Lastly, sci-fi thriller I.S.S. was a dud. It started off in seventh with $3 million, in range with my $2.6 million take.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 19-21 Box Office Predictions

The space station set sci-fi thriller I.S.S. is the only wide release debut in what should be a sluggish weekend at the box office. Our newcomer may struggle to make the top five and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

After a fetching start (more on that below), Mean Girls should remain #1 for the second weekend. However, with a weak B Cinemascore grade, a drop in the mid to high 50s is possible. It still might be the only title to get beyond $10 million as the typical January slowdown commences.

Jason Statham’s action thriller The Beekeeper, after its stronger than anticipated premiere, should be keeping its spot at #2 with a mid to high 40s decline.

The rest of the top five should consist of holiday leftovers with Wonka, Anyone but You, and Migration all experiencing meager dips.

Back to I.S.S. I’m just not seeing a launch of any magnitude and my $2.6 million forecast does indeed mean a showing outside the high five.

Here’s how I do see it:

1. Mean Girls

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million

2. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

3. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $6 million

4. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

5. Migration

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (January 12-15)

It was a robust premiere for the latest take on Mean Girls as the musical comedy scored $33.6 million over the four-day MLK weekend. That’s over my $27.6 million prediction and at the peak end of its anticipated range.

The Beekeeper also exceeded expectations with $18.7 million, well over my $10.6 million projection. It proved to be a viable option for action fans despite bad weather and playoff football. P.S. – now that my Browns are out, go Texans (Buckeye CJ Stroud) or Lions (long suffering fanbase).

Wonka was third with $11 million, not matching my $12.9 million call. The hit of the holidays has amassed $178 million after five weeks with $200 million domestic in its sights.

Migration was fourth with $8.5 million (I said $8.3 million) as it approaches the century mark with $88 million in four weekends.

Anyone but You rounded out the top five and also grossed $8.5 million for its impressive four-week haul of $56 million. A went with a little more at $9.5 million.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom was sixth with $6.3 million, under my $7.6 million guesstimate, for $109 million overall since its Christmas weekend bow.

Badly reviewed horror flick Night Swim plummeted from 2nd to 7th with $5.4 million (I said $6.1 million) for two-week earnings of $20 million.

Finally, Biblical dramedy The Book of Clarence couldn’t find an audience. It was ninth with a mere $3 million compared to my projection of $5.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 12-15 Box Office Predictions

The four-day MLK weekend finds three new ride release entries with Mean Girls (based on the Broadway play that’s based on the 2004 comedy), action thriller The Beekeeper with Jason Statham, and Biblical dramedy The Book of Clarence. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Mean Girls should easily manage to be first #1 title released from 2024. That’s something Night Swim couldn’t do this weekend (more on that below). With an anticipated sizable female audience, Girls may take in low to high 20s over the Friday to Monday portion of the extended frame.

The Beekeeper could certainly exceed my expectations, but I have it barely clearing $10 million. That should put it in third behind the fifth weekend of Wonka.

If you look at previous MLK four-days, holiday leftovers can often have slight decreases or even small increases. That could be the case with rom com Anyone but You which has proven to be impressively durable since its Christmas bow. That said, Girls does serve as direct competition. I have it rising from fifth to fourth with Migration rounding out the top five.

I’m not expecting much out of The Book of Clarence and a mid single digits premiere puts it in eighth in my estimation.

The largest drop should belong to Night Swim. Sizable horror dips are common and it doesn’t help that reviews and word-of-mouth is underwater. A fall from 2nd to 8th is possible.

And with that, we will do a top 8 this time around. Keep in mind that all estimates are for Friday thru Monday…

1. Mean Girls

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million

2. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

3. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

4. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

5. Migration

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

6. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

7. Night Swim

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

8. The Book of Clarence

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (January 5-7)

Box office 2024 kicked off with Wonka wrapping up a third weekend atop the charts with $14 million, a bit below my $16.3 million take. In four weeks, the holiday hit has amassed $164 million with $200 million domestic in its sights.

As mentioned, Night Swim was a second place finisher with $11.7 million. That’s under my $14.1 million forecast, but still a fair showing considering the reported $15 million price tag. It is, however, well under what M3GAN accomplished for Universal/Blumhouse in the same frame last year.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom was third with $10.6 million, rising above my $8.3 million prediction. The DCU sequel finally hit $100 million after three weeks.

Migration was fourth with $9.9 million (I was higher at $12.8 million) as the animated offering has grossed $77 million since its Yuletide start.

Anyone but You continues to confound expectations with an 11% increase in its third go-round. With $9.7 million (exceeding my $6.7 million call), the total is $43 million and climbing.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 5-7 Box Office Predictions

The first box office weekend of the new year has Universal and Blumhouse diving in with their supernatural horror flick Night Swim. It’s the only newcomer out amongst holiday leftovers. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

My mid teens estimate for Swim puts it in contention for the top spot. If it underperforms, that could allow Wonka another frame atop the charts. There’s also the distinct possibility that it exceeds expectations as M3GAN did for the same studio and production company one year back. I landed on it coming in q a bit behind Wonka.

With Wonka holding the runner-up spot, Migration should stay in third with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom sliding to fourth and Anyone but You rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

2. Night Swim

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million

3. Migration

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

4. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

5. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

Box Office Results (December 29-31)

Wonka was the top confection for audiences with $22.6 million in its third frame as 2023 wrapped up. That’s right on target with my $22.4 million call as the musical origin tale has amassed $133 million thus far and stands as the holiday pic of the season.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, as expected, fell to second with $18.2 million in its sophomore outing. A slight improvement over my $16.8 million forecast, it faces choppy waters compared to the massive grosses of its 2018 predecessor. Overseas grosses are fairly decent and it stands at $76 million stateside.

Migration had a nice hold in third with $17 million, on pace with my $17.9 million projection. The animated adventure from Illumination has formed a tally of $54 million after two weeks.

After a loud Christmas Day start, The Color Purple is settling down. It managed $11.7 million in its first full weekend in fourth, falling under my $15.4 million prediction. The musical has taken in $44 million since 12/25.

Rom com Anyone but You rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it in that spot. With $8.7 million, it has surpassed estimates with $24 million in two weeks.

Another holiday offering that has exceeded anticipation is George Clooney’s The Boys in the Boat. The period piece sports drama was sixth with $8.4 million (I said $7.9 million) for $21 million total since Christmas Day.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 29-December 31 Box Office Predictions

2023 closes out with no newcomers, but a host of Christmas holdovers as Wonka looks to bounce back into the top spot with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom sliding to at least second.

I’m making these top five predictions for the traditional three-day weekend and not counting New Year’s Day (which typically sees brisk business at multiplexes). We are still awaiting final numbers for the long Christmas weekend. That includes from Warner Bros who have Wonka, Aquaman, and The Color Purple atop the charts.

The Boys in the Boat (which opened on Christmas to significantly better numbers than I figured) should round out the top five. While Aquaman should come in second, I suspect Migration could rise to the runner-up spot as families catch up on product over another holiday weekend.

Here’s my best guess on how it will look:

1. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $22.7 million

2. Migration

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million

3. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

4. The Color Purple

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million

5. The Boys in the Boat

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

December 22-25 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (12/21): I am increasing my The Color Purple one-day projection from $7.9M to $12.9M

With Christmas falling on a Monday this year, this is one of the most jam packed Yuletide box office seasons in memory. There’s a whole bunch of cinematic gifts that studios hope open well. On Friday (December 22), Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom looks to top the charts and reverse the misfortunes of the DCU in 2023. Joining Aquaman for the long weekend are Illumination Entertainment’s animated Migration, wrestling biopic The Iron Claw with Zac Efron, Indian Telugu-language action epic Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire, Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell’s rom com Anyone but You, and the nationwide expansion of Oscar hopeful Poor Things with Emma Stone. On Christmas Day, they are joined by The Color Purple (adapting the Broadway musical which adapted the 1985 Spielberg pic which adapted the acclaimed novel), Michael Mann’s Ferrari with Adam Driver, and the George Clooney directed Olympic period piece The Boys in the Boat. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all nine (yes, nine) right here:

Even Aquaman himself, Jason Momoa, recently stated in an interview that the future of the franchise is murky at best. Despite the 2018 original making over a billion bucks worldwide, expectations for the sequel are underwater after the DCU’s year that included flops Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle. The worst case scenario is that this opens second to Wonka. On the bright side: Warner Bros gets the #1 slot either way. A low to mid 40s beginning from Friday to Monday is nothing to brag about, but that should get it to first place.

Wonka got off to a pretty sweet start at the top of its anticipated range (more on that below). Since I’m doing predictions from December 22-25, it may only decline from the high 30s to the mid to high 20s with bright weekends ahead (especially over New Year’s).

Therefore Wonka might be the family choice over Christmas and that could put Migration in third with a high teens or low 20s output. For Illumination, the silver lining should be small declines in subsequent frames.

I’m expecting a fourth place finish for The Iron Claw as wrestling fans could turn out to the tune of high single digits.

As for the three features out on Christmas Day, this obviously means I’m only doing a one-day projection. The Color Purple, with its well-known source material, should do best among that trio and I have its single day managing a fifth place showing.

Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire could over perform, but I have it in ninth. The newcomers should dominate the top ten as I have Anyone but You in sixth with the Poor Things expansion in seventh.

I do have holdovers The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes and Trolls Band Together finishing out the top ten.

That means my single day estimates for Ferrari ($2.1 million) and The Boys in the Boat ($1.1 million) leave them outside the top ten.

Truth be told, this is a highly unpredictable Christmas weekend with lots of moving parts. Here’s my best attempt at that top 10 and keep in mind that this is for Friday-Monday:

1. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $42.8 million

2. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $31.4 million

3. Migration

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

4. The Color Purple

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

5. The Iron Claw

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

6. Anyone but You

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

7. Poor Things

Predicted Gross: $5 million

8. Salaar: Part One – Ceasefire

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

9. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

10. Trolls Band Together

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

Box Office Results (December 15-17)

Warner Bros might face choppy waters ahead with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, but the Wonka opening went swimmingly. Timothee Chalamet’s take on the iconic chocolatier was treated to a $39 million start. That’s slightly ahead of my $36.4 million prediction as the family pic should have a robust road ahead this season.

It was the only newcomer this past weekend (which makes sense considering the onslaught ahead). The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes stayed put in second with $5.8 million, a smidge under my $6.6 million call. The prequel is up to $145 million after five weekends.

The Boy and the Heron, after its better than anticipated bow, dropped from 1st to 3rd with $5.5 million. That’s lower than my $7 million forecast as the ten-day take is $23 million.

Godzilla Minus One was fourth with $5 million (I said $5.7 million) for $34 million after three weeks.

Trolls Band Together rounded out the top five with $3.9 million compared to my $4.6 million projection. The threequel is approaching nine figures after five weeks with $88 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Have a wonderful holiday and until next time…

December 15-17 Box Office Predictions

The iconic chocolatier, this time played by Timothee Chalamet, looks to dominate the box office as Wonka opens this weekend. It is the only new wide release coming our way before a slew of Christmas offerings arrive. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

My mid 30s projection easily gives it the #1 spot as it hopes to leg out splendidly throughout the holiday season. It should manage to do so with the known IP and mostly positive critical reaction. Kiddos and their parents should eat this up as the season moves along.

The rest of the top five should be filled with leftovers. After a strong start (more on that below), The Boy and the Heron should slide to second. It might have the largest drop of the returnees (possibly close to 50%), but then again I thought Godzilla Minus One would have a considerably heftier sophomore dip.

I have The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes in third with the aforementioned Godzilla in fourth and Trolls Band Together rounding out the high five. Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $36.4 million

2. The Boy and the Heron

Predicted Gross: $7 million

3. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

4. Godzilla Minus One

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

5. Trolls Band Together

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (December 8-10)

Legendary Japanese animator Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron flew to the top spot with an impressive $12.9 million. This soars past my $8 million projection and should become the director’s highest grosser stateside in short order.

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes held in second with $9.2 million, just ahead of my $8.6 million take. The four-week total is $135 million.

Godzilla Minus One had a strong hold, down just 25% in third with $8.5 million. I figured it would fall a lot more and forecasted the green giant at $4.9 million. The ten-day tally is $25 million.

Trolls Band Together was fourth with $6 million (I said $4.7 million) as the animated threequel sits at $82 million after four frames.

Finally, last weekend’s champ Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé plummeted 75% to fifth with $5.4 million. I was more kind at $7.6 million. Total is $28 million for the concert flick.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (12/06): It appears The Boy and the Heron is opening on approximately 2100 screens. That is more than I assumed and my estimate rises from $3.8 million to $8 million. I’m also lowering my Renaissance prediction from $8.9M to $7.6M and raising my Hunger Games estimates from $7.8M to $8.6M. This dramatically alters my previous top five.

Before some high profile holiday releases are unwrapped, it should be a quiet weekend at the box office as Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron is the only significant newcomer. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

We may not see any picture top $10 million in this sleepy frame. Beyoncé may manage to rule the charts for a second time even though I have Renaissance having a sophomore slide in the high 50s. A gross approaching $9 million should keep it ahead of The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (which should fall in the mid 40s).

After an impressive debut, Godzilla Minus One should stay in third with Trolls Band Together remaining in fourth. I have Heron rounding out the top five, just ahead of Disney’s dud Wish.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

2. The Boy and the Heron

Predicted Gross: $8 million

3. Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

4. Godzilla Minus One

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Trolls Band Together

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

Box Office Results (December 1-3)

Audiences might not have been crazy in love with Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé to the level of Taylor Swift’s tour feature, but it opened in line with its anticipated range. Premiering in first, the acclaimed concert pic started with $21.8 million. That’s on pace with my $20.7 million take.

The Hunger Games: A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes slid to second with $14.1 million in its third outing, just ahead of my $13.1 million call. The franchise prequel is up to $120 million.

In a weekend with many debuts, Godzilla Minus One achieved the largest one at $11.4 million. The Japanese was third with $11.4 million, well ahead of my $7.6 million projection. This is especially impressive since it’s making most of its green overseas.

Trolls Band Together was fourth with $7.8 million (I said $8.5 million) as the three-week total is $75 million.

Disney’s Wish tumbled a steep 61% for fifth in its sophomore frame with $7.7 million. I was more generous at $9.3 million. The two-week tally is a troubling $42 million.

The second weekend plummet was even higher for Napoleon in sixth. It was down 65% to $7.2 million compared to my $9.2 million forecast. The overall gross is $45 million.

Newcomers filled the 7-9 spots. Hindi-language action flick Animal exceeded my expectations in seventh with $6.4 million. I said $4 million.

Sci-fi tale The Shift from Angel Studios was eighth with $4.6 million. That’s in line with my expectations at $4.3 million.

John Woo’s Silent Night was quiet in ninth with $3 million. That’s below my expectations as I went with $5 million.

Lastly, Eli Roth’s slasher Thanksgiving was tenth with $2.6 million, a tad under my $3.3 million prediction. Total is $28 million.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…