Tag: Box Office Results

July 26-28 Box Office Predictions

Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman come together for what should be the biggest opening of 2024 so far in Deadpool & Wolverine. The MCU pic is poised to dominate the weekend though Susan Sarandon and Bette Midler will try to bring in older females with The Fabulous Four. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:

Deadpool & Wolverine Box Office Prediction
The Fabulous Four Box Office Prediction

My take on Deadpool & Wolverine gives it the 16th best domestic start of all time (and ninth highest for the MCU). The projected number puts it above Mr. Pool’s two direct predecessors.

Let’s dispense with Fabulous. My tiny $1.5 million estimate puts the geriatric comedy well outside the top five.

As for holdovers, Twisters could fall by over 50% after its terrific start (more on that below). I’m going to be a bit more generous and say it eases in the high 40s. The animated offerings of Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 should hold the 3-4 slots with Longlegs rounding out the top five.

And with that, my take on the frame ahead:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $176.1 million

2. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $42 million

3. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

4. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. Longlegs

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (July 19-21)

Twisters blew away expectations with $81.2 million, eclipsing my $72.3 million take. It also edged Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire as the year’s biggest live-action debut (a record that will stand until this weekend per above).

Despicable Me 4 slid to second with $24.4 million, on target with my $24.8 million prediction for a three-week total of $260 million.

Inside Out 2 was third with $12.8 million. That’s right in line with my $13.2 million call as the Pixar behemoth is up to $596 million in six weeks.

Longlegs had solid legs in fourth with $11.9 million in weekend #2. I was close at $11 million and it has $44 million in its coffers.

A Quiet Place: Day One was fifth with $6.3 million (I said $6.6 million) for $127 million after four outings.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 19-21 Box Office Predictions

Twisters storms into theaters nearly 30 years after the blockbuster original and it should easily rule the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the weekend’s newcomer here:

Twisters Box Office Prediction

My hunch is to take the over on its anticipated range and my forecast puts Twisters in the low 70s.

The rest of the top 5 should consist of holdovers. I see Despicable Me 4, after two weeks in the top spot, dropping to second in the low to mid 40s percent arena. Another animated sequel, Inside Out 2, may hold in third.

That’s because I have it dipping in the mid t0 high 30s and current #2 Longlegs experiencing a fall in the 50% range (more on that pic’s impressive start below). A Quiet Place: Day One will probably round out the top five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $72.3 million

2. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $24.8 million

3. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Longlegs

Predicted Gross: $11 million

5. A Quiet Place: Day One

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

Box Office Results (July 12-14)

Illumination Entertainment lit up the charts once again as Despicable Me 4 repeated in first. The sequel took in $43.5 million in its sophomore outing and that exceeds my $36.4 million prediction. Since its holiday weekend debut, it has amassed $210 million.

Neon had the largest premiere in its history (and then some) with the serial killer thriller Longlegs. Featuring a heavily made up Nicolas Cage as the title character, it held the runner-up spot with $22.4 million. That nearly doubles my $11.6 million projection and quadruples the studio’s previous record holder Immaculate from earlier in the year. It is certainly one of 2024’s biggest over performers.

Inside Out 2 was third with $19.9 million, a tad more than my $17.7 million take. The Pixar follow-up stands at $571 million after five weeks.

A Quiet Place: Day One was fourth with $11.3 million (I said $10.1 million) for a three-week tally of $115 million.

Finally, the star power of Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum wasn’t enough to lift Fly Me to the Moon to stellar results. The space race rom com was fifth with $9.4 million compared to my $12.2 million call.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 12-14 Box Office Predictions

Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum are hoping to land a third place showing behind the current animation domination with Fly to the Moon this Friday. We also have the critically acclaimed horror thriller Longlegs with Maika Monroe and Nicolas Cage and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

Fly Me to the Moon Box Office Prediction
Longlegs Box Office Prediction

A low double digits premiere might get Moon to third after Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2. The former got off to a holiday weekend start in line with expectations while Inside continues its enormously financially potent run. I have Despicable dropping in the low 50s range with Out easing in the lower to mid 40s.

The worst case scenario for Moon would be fifth depending on how Longlegs debuts and A Quiet Place: Day One holds up in weekend 3. Longlegs is a wild card and it could exceed expectations. I have it just topping $10 million and that would put it in a close race with its genre competitor and perhaps even Moon. I’ll give the newcomer an edge over Quiet, but spots 3-5 will be a fascinating watch this time around.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:

1. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $36.4 million

2. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million

3. Fly Me to the Moon

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

4. Longlegs

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

5. A Quiet Place: Day One

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

Box Office Results (July 5-7)

As mentioned, Illumination Entertainment performed as anticipated with Despicable Me 4. Having opened on Wednesday the 3rd, the four-quel (and sixth entry in the series when counting the Minions titles) made $75 million from Friday to Sunday and $122.6 million when counting its two extra days. That’s slightly below my respective estimates of $79.4 million and $126.3 million and certainly enough to keep this money minting franchise going.

Inside Out 2 dropped to second after three weeks atop the charts with $30.3 million, a tad under my $32.6 million take. The four-week gross is $534 million.

A Quiet Place: Day One tumbled a somewhat troubling 61% in third with $20.6 million. I was more generous at $24 million. The two-week tally is nearing nine digits with $93 million.

Ti West’s third pic in his horror trilogy MaXXXine was fourth with a so-so $6.7 million. That does top my $5.7 million forecast and it is higher than predecessors X and Pearl. This should fade quickly.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die rounded out the top five with $6.6 million (I said $6.8 million) for a five-week $177 million haul.

Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 was sixth in its sophomore outing with $5.3 million, in line with my $5.4 million prediction. The Western’s underwhelming total is $22 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 5-7 Box Office Predictions

Inside Out 2 has been responsible for animation domination and kickstarting the summer season for the past three weeks. Now it’s time for a new sequel to take over as Despicable Me 4 debuts Wednesday and looks to rule the holiday frame. We also have Ti West’s horror trilogy capper MaXXXine out Friday. My detailed prediction posts on both can be accessed here:

Despicable Me 4 Box Office Prediction
MaXXXine Box Office Prediction

While not setting a franchise record like other follow-ups lately, I have Despicable Me 4 from Illumination Entertainment premiering in line with other entrees. That means a three-day near $80 million with over $125 million when counting Wednesday and Independence Day.

As for MaXXXine, my readers think I’m low. However, I’m struggling to see why it would debut too much higher than predecessors X and Pearl. I have it slated for a fifth place showing, but perhaps I’m not being generous enough.

Inside Out 2 will slide to second with perhaps a low to mid 40s percentage ease considering the Despicable competition. A Quiet Place: Day One may experience a 50-55% drop after its series best start (more on that below). The 4 slot (barring a MaXXXine over performance) should go to Bad Boys: Ride or Die with Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 in sixth after its so-so unveiling.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $79.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $126.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $32.6 million

3. A Quiet Place: Day One

Predicted Gross: $24 million

4. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

5. MaXXXine

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

6. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

Box Office Results (June 28-30)

Despite the aforementioned loud opening from A Quiet Place: Day One, Disney/Pixar ruled the roost for a third weekend with Inside Out 2. It took in $57.5 million (just below my $61.5 million prediction) for a three-week haul of $469 million. The sequel also crossed a billion bucks worldwide.

Day One was second with $52.2 million, eclipsing my estimate of $46.3 million and the $50.2 million that A Quiet Place earned back in 2018. I do think its sophomore weekend dip will be more pronounced than part 1 (which only fell by a third). Either way it’s a fine result for a franchise that looks to keep chugging along.

The news wasn’t as good for Kevin Costner as his Western epic Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 lassoed $11 million in third compared to my $14.8 million projection. Reportedly self-funded by its star/writer/director, this is on the lower end of its range and troubling considering the rumored $100 million price tag.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die was fourth with $10.3 million (I said $11.2 million) for a four-week gross of $165 million.

Indian sci-fi tale Kalki 2898 AD was fifth with $5.2 million and I incorrectly had it outside the high five and didn’t do a forecast.

The Bikeriders plummeted 66% to sixth with $3.3 million (I was generous at $4.6 million) for a mere $16 million in ten days.

Finally, Yorgos Lanthimos’s anthology Kinds of Kindness was ninth on just under 500 screens with $1.5 million. I thought it might get a bit more with a $3.2 million call.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 28-30 Box Office Predictions

Horror prequel A Quiet Place: Day One will attempt to make enough noise to knock Inside Out 2 from its third week atop the charts, but that could be a tall order. We also have Kevin Costner’s epic Western Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 and the semi-wide expansion of the Yorgos Lanthimos anthology Kinds of Kindness out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio right here:

A Quiet Place: Day One Box Office Prediction
Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction
Kinds of Kindness Box Office Prediction

My mid 40s projection for Quiet would be right in line with expectations and a tad under predecessor A Quiet Place Part II from 2021. That should put it firmly in second.

That’s because animated box office behemoth Inside Out 2 might ease around 40% for a third weekend in first after its record breaking performance during its second frame (more on that below).

Horizon is a legit question mark. Some estimates have it as low as $10 million and that would likely put it in fourth behind the fourth outing of Bad Boys: Ride or Die. Despite lackluster reviews and a three-hour runtime, I think it might manage low teens for third if enough Yellowstone viewers turn up.

The Bikeriders, with significant competition for adult eyeballs, should fall around 50% to fifth after a so-so start. As for Kinds of Kindness (which just scored the biggest PTA of 2024 on five screens), it is expanding to approximately 500 venues Friday and a gross just above $3 million might be enough for sixth.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $61.5 million

2. A Quiet Place: Day One

Predicted Gross: $46.3 million

3. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

4. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

5. The Bikeriders

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. Kinds of Kindness

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (June 21-23)

Disney/Pixar broke its own record (previously held by Incredibles 2) with the second highest animated weekend in history at $101.2 million. That bests my $93.6 million projection as the mighty sequel is up to $356 million in just ten days. A billion plus worldwide haul seems to be in the making. This is also vying for title of summer 2024’s heftiest domestic grosser with Deadpool & Wolverine seemingly the only challenger.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die held in second at $18.8 million, a bit shy of my $21.3 million take. The three-week gross is $147 million.

The Bikeriders couldn’t quite reach double digits in third with $9.6 million compared to my $10.5 million forecast. With an unimpressive B Cinemascore, this should stall out in subsequent weekends.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was fourth with $3.8 million (I said $4.1 million) for a seven-week tally of $164 million.

The Garfield Movie closely followed in fifth with $3.7 million and I incorrectly had it outside the high five. It has made $85 million after five weeks.

IF was sixth with $2.7 million as the family friendly original hit $106 million after six weeks.

I was a little too kind to Russell Crowe’s The Exorcism. His second feature with this subject matter in a year’s time (after The Pope’s Exorcist) was underwater in seventh with $2.4 million. I predicted $3.2 million.

Finally, I didn’t do an estimate for the critically acclaimed comedy Thelma with June Squibb. It was eighth with $2.3 million which is pretty decent considering it’s on less than 1300 screens.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 21-23 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (06/20): We have yet to even see a theater count for The Exorcism so I’m downgrading my estimate from $6.2 million to $3.2 million

The Bikeriders and The Exorcism enter a marketplace in which Inside Out 2 greatly exceeded expectations last weekend. The summer box office is finally looking up, but the two new entries could struggle for exposure. My detailed prediction posts on them can be accessed here:

The Bikeriders Box Office Prediction
The Exorcism Box Office Prediction

There’s no doubt that Inside Out 2 will be perched in 1st for a second weekend. A high 30s to low 40s decline would put it in the low to mid 90s. A sequel in its third frame – Bad Boys: Ride or Die – should remain in the runner-up slot with a mid 30s to 40% ease.

Now we get to the newbies. With decent reviews and the star power of Austin Butler, Tom Hardy, and Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders could still sputter with a third place showing. I think the big question is whether it reaches double digits and I have it barely accomplishing that minor goal.

As for The Exorcism, Russell Crowe’s second horror pic in as many years dealing with the subject matter probably won’t reach the $10 million that The Pope’s Exorcist did in April of 2023.

The five spot may go to holdover Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes in its seventh week of release and here’s how I have the high five playing out:

1. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $93.6 million

2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

3. The Bikeriders

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

5. The Exorcism

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (June 14-16)

Disney/Pixar were feeling all the happy emotions as Inside Out 2 blasted past forecasts for the 2nd best animated opening of all time. That would also be the 2nd largest Pixar haul behind record holder Incredibles 2. The sequel to the 2015 Oscar winning blockbuster posted $154.2 million, way beyond my $92.4 million call. It’s also the biggest 2024 premiere thus far.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die only fell 40% after its huge start with $33.7 million, riding past my $29.8 million take. The fourth entry in the three-decade old franchise has amassed $113 million.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes actually rose 2% to $5.5 million in third, dwarfing my $3.1 million projection as this sequel’s six-week tally is $158 million.

The over performance of Inside Out 2 caused other family friendly titles to plummet. The Garfield Movie was fourth with $4.7 million (I said $6.1 million) for $78 million in four weeks. IF was fifth with $3.6 million (I said $4.9 million) for $101 million in five weeks.

Finally, The Watchers was sixth in its sophomore frame with $3.5 million compared to my $2.9 million prediction. The two-week total is $13 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Disney/Pixar looks to dominate the box office charts in a way they haven’t for some time with Inside Out 2. The sequel to the 2015 hit is the only newcomer in the marketplace and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Inside Out 2 Box Office Prediction

After some fairly underwhelming grosses for the studio, Out could exceed the $90 million premiere achieved by its predecessor nine summers ago. I have it just doing so for what would be the fifth largest Pixar opening in its nearly three decade history.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die got off to a sizzling start (more on that below) and a mid to high 40s decline would have it in the $30 million range for its sophomore outing.

Spots 3 and 4 are likely to be a family friendly zone with The Garfield Movie and IF. Both will probably see slightly heftier declines than this past weekend considering the Mouse Factory competition.

Ishana Night Shyamalan’s horror debut The Watchers failed to attract genre viewers and I suspect its second weekend will see a dip in the 60% region. That could mean Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes stays in fifth with The Watchers in sixth.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $92.4 million

2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million

3. The Garfield Movie

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

4. IF

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

6. The Watchers

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (June 7-9)

Will Smith can breathe a sigh of relief as Bad Boys: Ride or Die topped estimates with a boisterous $56.5 million. While that’s under the $62 million that 2020 predecessor Bad Boys for Life achieved, it’s still an impressive number considering this summer of underachievers. I didn’t give it enough credit with a $47.3 million forecast. For Smith, it’s a sign that moviegoers are willing to shell out their bucks after The Slap. Don’t be surprised to see him and Martin Lawrence back for a fifth adventure.

The Garfield Movie was second with a meager 29% slide at $10 million, ahead of my $8.9 million call. The three-week total is $68 million as it hopes to reach $100 million domestically.

IF only fell 25% for third at $7.8 million, in range with my $7.4 million projection. It is approaching nine digits with $93 million after four weeks.

The aforementioned The Watchers couldn’t capitalize on the Shyamalan family name as poor reviews sunk it. The gross was just $7 million for fourth compared to my $10.2 million estimate.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes rounded out the top five with $5.4 million (I said $6 million) for five-week earnings of $149 million.

Lastly, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga plummeted another 61% in sixth with $4.2 million. I was kinder at $5.7 million as the prequel has only hit $58 million after three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 7-9 Box Office Predictions

Sony Pictures and theater owners are desperately looking for Will Smith and Martin Lawrence’s Bad Boys: Ride or Die to inject some life into the box office this weekend. We also have The Watchers, the horror debut from Ishana Night Shyamalan, daughter of M. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Bad Boys: Ride or Die Box Office Prediction
The Watchers Box Office Prediction

While I don’t have Ride revving up to the same numbers that predecessor Bad Boys for Life managed in January 2020, my mid to high 40s projection puts it in line with its somewhat muted expectations.

As I’ve been mentioning frequently in 2024, scary movies have struggled even managing $10M+ as of late for their starts. I do believe The Watchers gets there, but not by a lot for a so-so second place showing.

After rising to #1 (more on that below), The Garfield Movie should drop to third while IF appears poised for a one spot slide to fourth. That’s because Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga is bound to see a larger percentage decline. It may even fall from second to sixth depending on how Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes holds up.

And with that, my top 6 take on the frame ahead:

1. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $47.3 million

2. The Watchers

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. The Garfield Movie

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. IF

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

5. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $6 million

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

Box Office Results (May 31-June 2)

The woes continued at multiplexes with no major new releases even sniffing $5 million. It’s a bit of a cinematic litter box right now and The Garfield Movie elevated to first with $14 million. That’s ahead of my $12 million projection for its sophomore outing as it’s up to $51 million.

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga plummeted 59%, as I figured, to second with $10.7 million. That’s on target with my $11.3 million take as the prequel has amassed a mere $49 million in its two weeks.

IF held up nicely in third with $10.5 million (I said $10.1 million) for a three-week gross of $80 million.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was fourth with $8.9 million, in range with my $8.5 million call. After four weeks, the sequel is perched at $140 million.

I incorrectly didn’t have estimates for The Fall Guy or The Strangers: Chapter 1. The former was fifth with $4.1 million for $80 million after five frames while the latter took in $3.7 million in sixth for $28 million after three weeks.

That’s because I had Japan’s animated Haiyku!! The Dumpster Battle in fifth place, but it was seventh with $3.6 million. I was darn close for the forecast with $3.9 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 31-June 2 Box Office Predictions

The closeout of May and dawn of June at the box office will be even rougher than the Memorial Day weekend… and that weekend was rough at multiplexes (more on that below). The anime sports pic Haiyku!! The Dumpster Battle is the only significant new release as it aims for a top five showing where the #1 pic could struggle to top double digits. My detailed prediction post on the newcomer can be accessed here:

Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle Box Office Prediction

With my mid single digits projection (it could go higher), I have Dumpster placing fifth.

There could be a photo finish for #1 after a frame in which the new holiday pictures bombed. I have Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga falling in the high 50s after its poor performance and The Garfield Movie dipping over 50%. That might give the tabby cat the (not exactly) bragging rights in 1st.

IF should hold in third with a smaller decline than the sophomore weekend competitors. Heck, it could contend for the top spot if Furiosa and Garfield go downhill even more. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is likely to hold in fourth and here’s how I have it all playing out:

1. The Garfield Movie

Predicted Gross: $12 million

2. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

3. IF

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

5. Haiyku!! The Dumpster Battle

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

Box Office Results (May 24-27)

And now to the dumpster fire that just happened. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga managed to be first with $32.3 million over the Friday to Monday four-day expanded frame. That’s well below what predecessor Fury Road achieved some nine years ago and way under my $47.2 million prediction. **Please note that my percentage drops listed above are for the three-day Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend where this earned just $26.3 million.

The Garfield Movie also debuted on the lowest end of its anticipated range in second with $31.2 million compared to my $41.5 million take. Its B+ Cinemascore grade is subpar for a family feature (IF got an A) and I’m skeptical its legs will be sturdy.

IF fell to third in weekend #2 with $22.3 million, a tad ahead of my $20.6 million call. The two-week tally is $64 million.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was fourth with $17.6 million (I said $18 million) as it inched up to $127 million. This is really the only significant success story of the summer thus far… or at least it’s generally performing in line with expectations.

The Fall Guy rounded out the top five with $7.9 million. I went lower at $5.8 million, but it’s only up to $74 million after four weeks.

The Strangers: Chapter 1 was sixth with $7 million (I said $5.6 million) as the low budget horror sequel is at $22 million.

Finally, Sight from Angel Studios struggled for eyeballs with $3.7 million in seventh. I thought it might get more with $5.3 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 24-27 Box Office Predictions

After an iffy start to the summer cinematic season, the industry hopes business heats up over Memorial Day weekend. We have George Miller’s franchise prequel Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga looking to lead the way with the animated The Garfield Movie angling to post a strong second place showing. There’s also the faith-based biopic Sight from Angel Studios. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Box Office Prediction
The Garfield Movie Box Office Prediction
Sight Box Office Prediction

With mostly laudatory reviews (though not on the level of predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road), I’m estimating that Furiosa gets just under $50 million over the extended Friday to Monday frame. That would put in right in line with expectations.

Same goes for Chris Pratt’s vocal work as that orange tabby cat in The Garfield Movie. My low 40s forecast gives it a runner-up debut as this hopes to bring family audiences in for the next few weeks.

Speaking of families, they turned out on the lower end of the anticipated range for IF (more on that below). It was still a rather decent opening, but the competition from Garfield could sting a little. I still think manages a tad over $20 million for the holiday.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes should slide from 2nd to 4th in the mid teens to high teens region while slots 5-7 could be awfully close between The Fall Guy, Sight, and The Strangers: Chapter 1.

Here’s how I see it playing out and remember that these figures are for Friday through Monday:

1. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Predicted Gross: $47.2 million

2. The Garfield Movie

Predicted Gross: $41.5 million

3. IF

Predicted Gross: $20.6 million

4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $18 million

5. The Fall Guy

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

6. The Strangers: Chapter 1

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

7. Sight

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (May 17-19)

As mentioned, John Krasinski’s IF with Ryan Reynolds certainly didn’t over perform and came in with a fine but unremarkable $33.7 million. I thought it would get a bit more with $38.3 million. The A Cinemascore grade could mean its legs will be sturdy. That said, competition will be fierce.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was second after a muscular opening last weekend with $25.4 million, just outdoing my $23.6 million prediction. The two-week total is $100 million.

The Strangers: Chapter 1 managed (barely) the largest horror unveiling of 2024 with a better than expected $11.8 million estimate. Considering its reported teensy budget, that’s a solid number and ahead of my $9.1 million call.

The Fall Guy fell to fourth with $8.3 million, in line with my $8 million projection. The three-week gross is $62 million.

Challengers rounded out the top five in weekend #4 and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. It has made $43 million overall.

They tried to make the Amy Winehouse biopic Back to Black a hit, but audiences said no (no no). It flopped in sixth with a mere $2.8 million compared to my more hopeful $4.5 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…