After premiering at Telluride nearly six months ago, Cyrano has experienced a bumpy ride to multiplexes. From Joe Wright, the latest version of Cyrano de Bergerac features Peter Dinklage in the title role and Haley Bennett, Kelvin Harrison, Jr., and Ben Mendelsohn among the supporting cast.
Festival reviews indicated this could have been an Oscar player and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 87%. However, the musical romance was delayed by MGM from Christmas to the February 25th release. It still managed a brief qualifying run in 2021, but that resulted in a lone Costume Design nod with Dinklage (once thought to a sturdy contender) left out.
With zero awards buzz and a reported screen count of only 750, it seems like the studio is not confident in their product. A gross of approximately $1.5-$2.5 million could mean it won’t even translate to the top five.
The video game adaptation Uncharted with Tom Holland and Mark Wahlberg looks to rule the #1 spot over the four-day President’s Day weekend while Channing Tatum’s directorial debut Dog hopes for a solid second place showing. They’re the newbies coming on Friday and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:
While reviews are mixed (50% currently on Rotten Tomatoes) for Uncharted, it should easily take a commanding lead for the POTUS frame. My low to mid 30s take puts it at about two and half times the gross of Dog, which finds Mr. Tatum in his first starring role in nearly half a decade.
As for holdovers, the long weekend should allow for smallish drop-offs. We’ve seen that play out previously during the mid February time period. Death on the Nile, following its mediocre start, might flirt with staying in double digits (I have it just under) with Spider-Man: No Way Home (that other Holland pic), Marry Me, and Jackass Forever filling out the rest of the chart.
Here’s how I envision the top 6 and these are estimates over the Friday to Monday holiday:
1. Uncharted
Predicted Gross: $33.7 million
2. Dog
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
3. Death on the Nile
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million
5. Marry Me
Predicted Gross: $6 million
6. Jackass Forever
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
Box Office Results (February 11-13)
As mentioned, Kenneth Branagh’s Death on the Nile (his follow-up to 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express) went a bit off the tracks with $12.8 million. That’s shy of my $14.3 million projection and it’s less than half of what Orient accomplished out of the gate.
Jackass Forever dropped to second with $8 million. The 65% drop was the largest of the five picture franchise and under my prediction of $11.3 million. The prankster sequel stands at $37 million after ten days.
Jennifer Lopez and Owen Wilson couldn’t get audiences to fall for them as Marry Me debuted in third with $7.9 million. That didn’t match my expectation of $11.2 million. Its simultaneous Peacock streaming start might have caused many couples to simply view from home.
Spider-Man: No Way Home was fourth with $7.5 million (I said $7.1 million) for $759 million overall. The MCU smash is just $1 million away from Avatar and becoming the third largest domestic earner of all-time (obviously it will hit that mark this week).
Liam Neeson’s latest revenge thriller Blacklight performed in line with his other COVID genre tales Honest Thief and The Marksman. The fifth place tally was $3.5 million, in range with my $3.8 million estimate.
Finally, Moonfall took a giant step down to #8 and fell 70% with $2.9 million in its sophomore outing (I was a little more generous with $3.5 million). Sing 2 and Scream managed to leap it for the sixth and seventh spots. The putrid gross is just $15 million.
After a lengthy hiatus from starring roles, Channing Tatum is back in theaters with Dog on February 18th. He plays a U.S. army ranger tasked with bringing a military pooch to his handler’s funeral. The dramedy also marks Tatum’s debut behind the camera (he co-directs with Reid Carolin). Jane Adams, Kevin Nash, Q’Orianka Kilcher, Ethan Suplee, Emmy Raver-Lampman, and Bill Burr make up the supporting cast.
As mentioned, Tatum’s been on a bit of a hiatus lately. His last headlining role was all the way back in 2017 with Logan Lucky (he did turn up in Free Guy and will be seen next month alongside Sandra Bullock and Brad Pitt in The Lost City).
Looking at potential canine comps, A Dog’s Purpose back in 2017 took in $18 million out of the gate. A Dog’s Way Home made $11 million for its start two years later. One caveat – both were based on novels whereas this Dog is an original concept.
Arriving a year after its COVID delay, Dog will hope to attract a female crowd (thanks to Tatum) and those who just generally like the word “dog” in a film’s title. Over the four-day President’s Day frame, there’s a decent chance this could over perform and possibly get to $20 million (or it could flame out with $10 million). I’m thinking $12-$15 million is most likely.
Dog opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
A popular series of PlayStation games comes to life when Uncharted opens on February 18th. The adventures tale from Zombieland and Venom director Ruben Fleischer features Tom Holland and Mark Wahlberg headlining. Costars include Sophia Ali, Tati Gabrielle, and Antonio Banderas.
Budgeted at a reported $120 million, this should pretty easily top the charts over the long President’s Day weekend. Per usual, it’s undergone a few release date changes in the pandemic era. This time around, the pushback may have helped.
Arriving just two months after Holland’s work as Spider-Man in No Way Home got the box office to unprecedented COVID time levels, audiences may wish to check out his latest potential blockbuster. It doesn’t hurt that gamers could show up too (thought it’s worth mentioning that video game adaptations have a troubled history at multiplexes).
The range for Uncharted is wide. A best case scenario for scenario could be in the $50 million range from Friday to Monday. The floor could be about half of that. I’ll say low to mid 30s is where this ends up.
Uncharted opening weekend prediction: $33.7 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
It’s been pretty easy to predict each weekend’s #1 film for a while – a lot of Spidey, a one-week interruption by Scream, and Johnny Knoxville and his pranksters in Jackass Forever. That gets a little more complicated this time around as three new pics enter the marketplace: Kenneth Branagh’s Murder on the Orient Express follow-up Death on the Nile, the Jennifer Lopez/Owen Wilson musical rom com Marry Me, and the latest Liam Neeson revenge saga Blacklight. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio right here:
Let’s start with Blacklight. Had this Neeson led tale (his granddaughter gets taken in it) come out in February a decade ago, we might be having a different conversation. However, grosses for these genre exercises with the actor have dwindled over the past couple of years (see Honest Thief and The Marksman). Therefore my $3.8 million estimate puts it at the tail end of the top five.
Then there’s Marry Me. It’s shrewdly placed during Valentine’s Day weekend where couples could be searching out something to view on date night. They will have the opportunity to do so with Marry Me in the theater and on Peacock and that could eat into the earnings. I have it barely topping double digits, but will admit that it could over perform and even snatch the #1 spot.
Jackass Forever is the fifth feature in the 20-year-old franchise and the fifth to open at #1. Looking over previous sophomore frame dips for earlier pics, I was surprised at their low drops. For 2002’s Jackass: The Movie, it was 44%. 2006’s Jackass: Number Two fell 49% while 2010’s Jackass 3D was the steepest at 57% (it was coming off a massive $50 million premiere). Spinoff Bad Grandpa in 2013 only had a 37% decline. I’ll say Forever loses about 50% That could be good enough for anywhere from the 1-3 slot depending on how Nile and Marry pan out. There could be a photo finish for that two spot.
Murder on the Orient Express tracked a solid $28 million haul just over four years ago. Yet it didn’t leg out particularly well and I question whether audiences are truly excited for another dose of Hercule Poirot and his many suspects. I suspect it should still make around half of what its predecessor took in. That would get it to #1, but we’re in a situation where we could have three genuine contenders for the top spot.
Spider-Man should stay in the top five with Moonfall potentially dropping out. The Roland Emmerich disaster tale managed just a C+ Cinemascore grade to go with its weak opening. A sophomore fall in the 60% range appears likely.
It’s also worth noting that there’s a certain game between the Bengals and Rams taking place Sunday. We usually don’t see three high-profile releases on Super Bowl weekend and it’s fair to assume grosses will take a hit on that date.
Here’s how I see it shaking out for your top 6:
1. Death on the Nile
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
2. Jackass Forever
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
3. Marry Me
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
5. Blacklight
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
6. Moonfall
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
Box Office Results (February 4-6)
The Jackass franchise is five for five when it comes to opening #1 at the box office. Jackass Forever performed in line with estimates at $23.1 million, a touch ahead of my $21.8 million projection. It ranks fourth in terms of the quintet of debuts (just ahead of the original), but it’s certainly an impressive number given the circumstances.
As for Roland Emmerich’s disaster pic Moonfall… not so much. The big budget ($140 million) lunar saga cratered with only $9.8 million (I went higher with $12.8 million). As mentioned above, expect a precipitous drop in its sophomore frame.
Spider-Man: No Way Home was third with $9.5 million, swinging a bit above my $8.1 million take. The total has reached $748 million as it inches ever closer to 3rd domestically all-time (currently held by Avatar with $760 million).
Scream was fourth with $4.7 million (I said $4.4 million) and it’s scared up an overall tally of $68 million.
Sing 2 rounded out the top five with $4.2 million compared to my $3.6 million estimate. Total is $139 million.
Some 13 years after Taken kicked off a whole new action phase for its star, Liam Neeson is back in revenge mode with Blacklight (out February 11th). And this time… wait for it!… it’s his granddaughter who’s been snatched by nefarious criminals. Mark Williams, who worked with Neeson in Honest Thief, directs and the supporting cast includes Emmy Raver-Lampman, Taylor John Smith, and Aidan Quinn.
One look at the Blacklight trailer illuminates Neeson in his late career comfort zone. Post Taken, that’s resulted in moneymakers like Unknown, Non-Stop and, of course, the Taken sequels.
Lately, however, the grosses have slowed. Some of that might have been a result of releases that occurred in this COVID era. The aforementioned Thief in fall 2020 premiered to only $3.6 million. Last year, The Marksman took in $3.7 million over the four-day MLK frame. Pre pandemic, in 2019, Cold Pursuit started with $11 million (still far off from earlier efforts).
I don’t see a compelling why Blacklight would approach double digits (or even high single ones) and it won’t help that male viewers will be distracted by the Bengals vs. Rams on Sunday of its debut weekend. It might outdo Thief and The Marksman, but maybe not.
It’s been 20 years since the heyday of Jennifer Lopez rom coms like The Wedding Planner and Maid in Manhattan, but the actress returns to the genre (with a heavy dose of music) on February 11th in Marry Me. Directed by Kat Coiro, Lopez stars as a spurned pop star who strikes up a romance with Owen Wilson. The supporting cast includes Maluma, John Bradley, and Sarah Silverman.
Originally scheduled for Valentine’s Day weekend 2021 before the inevitable COVID delay, it will be available on Peacock streaming same day. Clearly hoping for a healthy female turnout, plenty of viewers could opt to RSVP from home rather than walk down the theater aisle.
J-Lo’s last foray into this territory was 2018’s Second Act, which debuted over a packed Christmas weekend to only $6.5 million (it legged out decently to nearly $40 million). I’ll project Marry Me manages to top that figure, but it still could struggle to reach double digits. I’ll say it just manages to.
Marry Me opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
Hercule Poirot is back in mystery solving form (quite a while after he was supposed to be) when Death on the Nile sets sail in theaters on February 11th. The follow-up to 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express finds Kenneth Branagh back as the famed Agatha Christie sleuth. As he did with Express, the star directs himself. Tom Bateman reprises his role from the predecessor. The supporting cast includes Annette Bening, Russell Brand, Ali Fazal, Dawn French, Gal Gadot, Armie Hammer (the pic was shot was shot prior to troubling details about his personal life surfaced), Rose Leslie, Emma Mackey, Sophie Okonedo, Jennifer Saunders, and Letitia Wright.
Budgeted at a reported $90 million, Nile was originally slated for multiplexes in December 2020 before numerous COVID delays. In that time, Branagh made Belfast and it’s become one of the favorites to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
Back in 2017, Orient debuted to a better than anticipated $28 million. It stalled a bit in subsequent weekends, but eventually hit just over $100 million domestically. At that time, audiences gave it a B Cinemascore grade – not bad though certainly not impressive.
That calls into question whether moviegoers will be excited for another dose of Poirot and his suspects. Furthermore, Nile will attempt to skew towards a female crowd. Some could be distracted with the release of the Jennifer Lopez rom com Marry Me. There’s also a football game on Sunday that could eat into the grosses.
I deduce that this might make about half of what Express accomplished for its start.
Death on the Nile opening weekend prediction: $14.3 million
February kicks off with two new entries that should place 1-2 on the charts. Johnny Knoxville and his pranksters return in Jackass Forever and the Roland Emmerich disaster pic Moonfall starring Halle Berry are the debuts and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
It’s been years since we’ve seen a Jackass experience and I do question if younger viewers aren’t as familiar with the franchise. On the other hand, no film in the series (including 2013 spinoff Bad Grandpa) has opened below $20 million and I won’t predict that this will. My low 20s forecast easily puts it in first place.
As for Moonfall, I’ve got it premiering in the same range as 2017’s Geostorm and that’s in the lower double digits range. That should certainly be good for second, but is weak considering the reported $140 million price tag.
The trio of S sequels that have reigned supreme in the last couple of weeks – Spider-Man: No Way Home, Scream, Sing 2 – should all slide 2 spots and populate the rest of the top five.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Jackass Forever
Predicted Gross: $21.8 million
2. Moonfall
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
4. Scream
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
5. Sing 2
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million
Box Office Results (January 28-30)
In a weekend that saw no major releases, Spider-Man: No Way Home easily ruled for the sixth out of its seven weekends. The MCU sensation took in another $11 million, reaching a tad higher than my $10.3 million projection. It stands just $25 million away from overtaking Avatar as the third biggest domestic earner of all time.
Scream was in the runner-up position again and it held better than I anticipated. The horror sequel made $7.2 million in its third frame compared to my $5.5 million estimate and it’s grossed $62 million.
Sing 2 was third with $4.6 million, edging my $4.2 million take and it’s up to $134 million.
Redeeming Love was fourth in its sophomore outing with $1.7 million (I said $1.8 million) for $6 million overall.
The King’s Man rounded out the top five at $1.6 million (I went with $1.3 million). Tally is $33 million.
Roland Emmerich, maker of Independence Day, The Day After Tomorrow, and 2012, has never met a disaster scenario he didn’t like. So let’s have the moon hurtle toward Earth and potentially destroy humanity, shall we? That’s the concept of Moonfall, out February 4th. The sci-fi extravaganza comes with a whopping reported budget of $140 million and its cast includes Halle Berry, Patrick Wilson, John Bradley, Michael Pena, Charlie Plummer, Kelly Yu, and Donald Sutherland.
This one could have a tough time making that budget back and it better hope for robust international grosses. Emmerich is not the drawing power he was a quarter century ago. His last feature, 2019’s Midway, started with just over $17 million (though it is worth noting that was slightly above expectations).
It also might not help that moviegoers looking for mindless entertainment have Jackass Forever debuting directly against it. The best scenario for Moonfall could be $20 million, but that could be a giant leap. I’m thinking a premiere similar to Geostorm (which started north of $13 million) might be where this lands.
Moonfall opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million
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