Channing Tatum plays a real life robber using unconventional break-in methods in the dramedy Roofman. The Paramount release is out October 10th with Derek Cianfrance (Blue Valentine, The Place Beyond the Pines) directing. Kirsten Dunst costars with a supporting cast including Ben Mendelsohn, LaKeith Stanfield, Juno Temple, Melonie Diaz, Uzo Abuba, Lily Collias, Jimmy O. Yang and Peter Dinklage.
After premiering at the Toronto Film Festival earlier this month, reviews were mostly complimentary with 82% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 65 Metacritic. However, the buzz wasn’t strong enough to get in the awards conversation.
Roofman will rely solely on Tatum’s drawing power, but plenty of viewers may wait until streaming options are available. The ceiling for this could be $10 million (which would be an admirable result). I think mid single digits is where it lands.
Arriving 15 years after a sequel that followed the original by 28 years, Tron: Ares hits theaters October 10th. Disney’s sci-fi action threequel has Joachim Rønning taking over directorial duties from Joseph Kosinski, who made 2010’s Tron: Legacy before helming Top Gun: Maverick and F1. Jared Leto, Greta Lee, Evan Peters, Jodie Turner-Smith, Hasan Minhaj, Arturo Castro, Gillian Anderson and Jeff Bridges (reprising his role from the first two) star.
The franchise certainly has its followers though it’s fair to wonder if younger viewers will turn out. They might not be as familiar with the source material from 2010 (let alone 1982). Legacy performed decently with a $44 million opening and $172 eventual domestic gross. It made just under $400 million worldwide. Ares would be fortunate to replicate that and projections have it starting in the same range (not adjusted for inflation). I’ll say this manages just under that figure.
Tron: Ares opening weekend prediction: $42.6 million
Just as she will on the music charts starting Friday, the biggest pop star in the universe seeks to dominate the box office rankings with Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl. We also have Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt in the MMA biopic The Smashing Machine, the re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water and canine centric horror tale Good Boy out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Coinciding with the release of her 12th studio album, Showgirl looks to kick up impressive earnings for its engagement lasting only this weekend. While it’s unlikely to approach the $93 million generated out of the gate by her Eras Tour doc in 2023, I believe it’ll surpass the $40 million forecasts and reach higher 40s. As a general rule, take the over when it comes to Taylor.
The Smashing Machine will compete for adult eyeballs with the second weekend of One Battle After Another. My low teens take would put it in third for a so-so showing.
While audiences await threequel James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash this December, I have the re-release of The Way of Water in mid single digits and rounding out the high five.
My lower single digits estimate at $2.8 million for Good Boy leaves it outside the top five.
As for holdovers, Battle came in at the lower end of its expected range (more on that below). However, awards buzz and the Cinemascore grade of A might mean a meager drop. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie didn’t pack in family crowds, but lack of competition for kids (though plenty of them might see Ms. Swift) could mean a decline around 40% or less.
Here’s I have it all shaking out:
1. Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl
Predicted Gross: $48.6 million
2. One Battle After Another
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million
3. The Smashing Machine
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million
4. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
5. Avatar: The Way of Water re-release
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
Box Office Results (September 26-28)
Paul Thomas Anderson’s acclaimed One Battle After Another certainly set a record for his openings. Yet the $22 million debut for Leonardo DiCaprio’s latest came in lower than my $27 million prediction. It will hope for (and should achieve) smallish dips in the coming weeks due to the aforementioned word-of-mouth.
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie was second with an unimpressive $13.6 million, well under my $20.3 million call. Based on the Netflix TV show, plenty of viewers opted to stay home.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle was third in weekend #3 with $7.1 million and ahead of my $5.8 million projection. The anime record holder has amassed $118 million stateside.
The Conjuring: Last Rites was fourth in weekend #4 at $6.7 million (I said $6.4 million) as the sequel’s tally is $161 million.
The Strangers – Chapter 2 sputtered in fifth with $5.8 million, under my $6.7 million take. This scary sequel failed to approach the double digits that its predecessor last year managed.
Speaking of underwhelming fright fest performances, Him tumbled 73% in sixth with $3.5 million. I was more generous at $5.1 million as its two-week earnings are $20 million.
Retriever Indy is said to carry Good Boy on his paws as the horror flick debuts October 3rd. After premiering at South by Southwest in the spring, encouraging word-of-mouth (95% RT, 71 Metacritic) and a memorable trailer eventually led the haunted house tale (told from the canine character’s perspective) to a wide release pattern. Ben Leonberg directs and cowrites with a human cast consisting of Shane Jensen, Arielle Friedman and Larry Fessenden.
Clocking in at a brisk 72 minutes, a best case scenario might be higher single digits. I’ll be keeping an eye out for a theater count as that could alter the estimate, but I’ll say lower single digits is the likelier outcome.
Good Boy opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million
For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:
Before the third edition of James Cameron’s money minting franchise arrives in December, predecessor Avatar: The Way of Water re-releases on October 3rd. Originally out in December 2022, the sci-fi epic looks to add to its $684 million in domestic dollars (good for 7th all-time) and excite moviegoers for Avatar: Fire an Ash.
This is not a new release pattern for 20th Century Studios. In September 2022, the first Avatar (the 4th biggest stateside grosser ever) had a return engagement in multiplexes. It added $10.5 million in its first 3 days.
The slightly diminishing (though still potent) results that greeted Water should apply once again. The re-release of 2009’s original was likely assisted by a longer lag time than what we have here. Nevertheless I’ll saythis return engagement still manages mid single digits.
Avatar: The Way of Water re-release opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million
For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:
Dwayne Johnson seeks rock solid returns when The Smashing Machine enters the box office ring on October 3rd. Marking the solo directorial debut of Benny Safdie (brother Josh has his own with Marty Supreme in December), Johnson stars as MMA fighter Mark Kerr with Emily Blunt as his wife. The supporting cast includes Ryan Bader, Bas Rutten and Oleksandr Usyk (all from the real life fight world).
Seen as Johnson’s first legit bid for awards consideration, Machine debuted at Venice to mostly positive reviews (75% RT, 69 Metacritic). Steering away from broad based action and comedy (often set in jungles), A24 hopes the former wrestler’s latest plays well throughout October.
The MMA factor could help this get past my projection, but I don’t think the buzz is strong enough for this to reach $20 million. Even mid to high teens could be a challenge.
The Smashing Machine opening weekend prediction: $13.7 million
For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:
Coinciding with the release of her 12th album The Life of a Showgirl, the unstoppable force that is Taylor Swift is back in theaters October 3rd courtesy of Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl. Clocking in at just under an hour and a half, Showgirl will showcase the premiere of a new video in addition to lyric videos for other tracks and behind the scenes footage.
Announced just days ago, all domestic AMC Theatres will feature the project as well as participating Alamo Drafthouse, Regal and Cinemark locations. Tickets are $12 to honor her 12th album. Nearly two years ago, the pop sensation dominated the box office with her Eras Tour big screen experience. It opened to a walloping $93 million on its way to a $180 million stateside haul.
Showgirl will only be in theaters for three days. Expectations are not as high and this probably won’t play on the 3800+ venues that Eras did. Early estimates have this grossing around $40 million. This might go without saying, but I would take the over when it comes to Ms. Swift.
When the screen count is released, my estimate could fluctuate. While I agree this won’t reach Eras level, I’m going with low to mid 50s and let’s see if that ticks up (or maybe down) in the days to come.
Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl opening weekend (and overall gross) prediction: $48.6 million
For my The Smashing Machine prediction, click here:
Leonardo DiCaprio looks to conquer all multiplex foes in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, but faces competition from Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie and The Strangers – Chapter 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Battle is favored to come out ahead based on major Oscar buzz and star power. I’m projecting high 20s as it looks to leg out impressively in subsequent frames.
Dollhouse is more of a wildcard. Based on a popular Netflix kids show, the mix of live-action and animation could surpass my low 20s estimate and come in 1st under the best case scenario.
I’m not looking for much out of The Strangers. Last year’s predecessor managed to top $10 million out of the gate. I suspect the follow-up will not. It might even fall behind the fourth frame of The Conjuring though I’ll give it the slight benefit of the doubt.
The fresh trio should place 1-3. As for holdovers, The Conjuring: Last Rites may see a smaller decline than Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle or Him.
Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:
1. One Battle After Another
Predicted Gross: $27 million
2. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie
Predicted Gross: $20.3 million
3. The Strangers – Chapter 2
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
4. The Conjuring: Last Rites
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
5. Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
6. Him
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
Box Office Results (September 19-21)
After an explosive record setting premiere for an anime title, Demon Slayer managed to stay atop the charts for a second weekend despite a 75% plummet (not unexpected). It grossed $17.3 million and just topped my $16.2 million call for $104 million thus far.
Sports themed horror pic Him with Marlon Wayans underwhelmed (poor reviews didn’t help) in the runner-spot position with $13.2 million. I was more generous at $20.3 million and thought it would come out on top. Look for about a 60% or more ease in weekend #2.
The Conjuring: Last Rites was third with $12.2 million, on pace with my $12.4 million prediction. The three-week take is $150 million.
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale was fourth with $6.4 million (I said $6.5 million) for $31 million in two weeks.
The Long Walk rounded out the top five in its sophomore outing with $6.2 million. My guesstimate? $6.2 million! The ten-day gross is $22 million.
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey with Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell, despite its magnetic leads, bombed in sixth with a bleak $3.2 million. I went a bit higher at $4.8 million.
Finally, The Senior from Angel Studios (with an inspiration football theme) was deflated in seventh with $2.6 million compared to my $3.3 million projection.
The Strangers – Chapter 2 finds its home in multiplexes on September 26th. The Lionsgate effort is the follow-up to last year’s (you guessed it) The Strangers: Chapter 1. Why they went with a hyphen this time around instead of the predecessor’s colon remains a compelling mystery. Renny Harlin returns in the director’s chair with Madelaine Petsch, Gabriel Basso and Ema Horvath starring.
Marking the fourth overall pic in the franchise that began in 2008, this chapter will hope to keep pace with what 2024’s entry accomplished. It opened to $11.8 million with a $35 million eventual domestic take. There could be diminishing returns (a horror movie eventually has to underperform… right?) and this could be the first Strangers not to exceed $10 million in its debut.
The Strangers – Chapter 2 opening weekend prediction: $6.7 million
For my One Battle After Another prediction, click here:
Based on the popular Netflix kids show that began in 2021, Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie hopes to welcome family audiences beginning September 26th. The fantasy comedy mix of live-action and animation is directed by Ryan Crego with Laila Lockhart Kraner reprising her leading role from the series. Costars include Gloria Estefan, Ego Nwodim, Kyle Mooney, Melissa Villaseñor, Fortune Feimster, and Kristen Wiig (lots of SNL alum). Thomas Lennon and Jason Mantzoukas provide voice work contributions.
Dollhouse could benefit by catering to a young female audience and the lack of competition from kid centric features. The rosiest of projections have this approaching $30 million and that could put it in contention for 1st place over One Battle After Another. I doubt it gets that high and I’ll say high teens low 20s is the likelier scenario.
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie opening weekend prediction: $20.3 million
For my One Battle After Another prediction, click here:
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