Blogger’s Update (04/26): I am revising my estimate down from $8.5M to $5.7M
Big George Foreman enters the box office ring on April 28th from George Tillman Jr. (who recently directed Notorious and The Hate U Give). The sports biopic stars Khris Davis as the two-time boxing champ and grill master. Jasmine Mathews, John Magaro, Sullivan Jones, and Forest Whitaker are in the supporting cast.
Sony Pictures is hoping audiences are ready for another tale of the sweet science shortly after the success of Creed III. With a lack of star power and not much in the way of buzz, Foreman may struggle to reach $10 million in the first weekend. I’ll project it falls a bit shy for a performance that’s no knockout. It does get credit for having a ridiculously lengthy full title – The Miraculous Story of the Once and Future Heavyweight Champion of the World.
Big George Foreman opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million
For my Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret prediction, click here:
After a sizzling limited release last weekend, Ari Aster’s Beau Is Afraid expands to just under 1000 screens this Friday. A mix of many genres from the director known for horror pics Hereditary and Midsommar, Joaquin Phoenix stars as a paranoid man on odyssey while dealing with severe mommy issues. Costars include Patti LuPone, Nathan Lane, Amy Rogers, Kylie Rogers, Parker Posey, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Hayley Squires, Michael Gandolfini, Zoe Lister-Jones, and Richard Kind.
Some critics have been quite kind and it sits at 74% on Rotten Tomatoes. Others have called the three-hour opus a slog and predicted that general audiences are likely to have strong negative feelings. Beau scored $320,000 on just four screens days ago for a per theater average of $80k. It’s not surprising that it performed splendidly in NY/LA.
Beau faces more challenging prospects as it plays between the coasts. While it will probably have the third best screen average behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Evil Dead Rise (though the average could top that one), a gross between $4-5 million is likely.
Beau Is Afraid expanded opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million
Lionsgate is hoping audiences will be there for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret when it opens April 28th. The coming-of-age dramedy is based on the well-known 1970 novel from Judy Blume. Kelly Fremon Craig, who wrote and directed 2016’s acclaimed The Edge of Seventeen, is behind the camera. Abby Ryder Fortson stars in the title role with Jennifer Garner, Benny Safdie, and Kathy Bates in the supporting cast.
Despite the popularity of its source material, author Blume held onto the film rights for over half a century. Margaret will attempt to bring in a wide female audiences whose familiarity with the book spans generations. Some early prognoses have this potentially reaching $20 million. I’ll say low to mid teens is where this lands.
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret opening weekend prediction: $15.3 million
The Super Mario Bros. Movie should rule the charts for a third weekend as Evil Dead Rise and Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant open in wide release. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Evil Dead Rise appears headed for a second place showing. However, the fifth pic in the horror franchise that started over 40 years ago is unlikely to match the mid-twenties haul that its 2013 predecessor managed. That’s despite strong reviews. Some recent horror saturation might mean a low to mid teens premiere.
As for Afghanistan War drama The Covenant with Jake Gyllenhaal, this is a genre that often struggles for eyeballs. It could certainly outpace my mid single digits projection (which should still be good for third), but my gut says this won’t impress.
Spots 4-8 should be holdovers whose difference could be less than a million bucks. I have John Wick: Chapter 4 leading that group with Renfield having the biggest percentage drop and coming in 8th.
Some other notes before I get to the power player. The historicaldrama Chevalier is slated to come out on around 1200 screens. I think the ceiling could be $2.5 million and I didn’t do an individual post for it.
Then there’s Beau is Afraid. Ari Aster’s three-hour opus with Joaquin Phoenix is garnering some raves and some derision from critics. It had a sizzling limited debut on only 4 screens. Beau is opening wider this weekend, but I’ve yet to see a theater count. Depending on how many venues it’s playing in, it could pop up in the top 5. However, I can’t make an educated guesstimate (yet) until I see a number. **Update (04/19): I’ve now done a prediction for this since a theater count is released:
As for the third frame of Mario, I’ve got it falling in the high 30s to low 40s for a mid to high 5os gross. My prediction gives it the ninth best third weekend of all time after it just had the seventh largest second one. I’ll give this caveat: I’ve been low for two weeks in a row on this pic.
So with all that said, here’s my look at the top 8:
1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $54.8 million
2. Evil Dead Rise
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million
3. Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
4. John Wick: Chapter 4
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
5. The Pope’s Exoricst
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
6. Air
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
**7. Beau is Afraid
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million (ADDED PREDICTION**)
8. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
9. Renfield
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
Box Office Results (April 14-16)
It’s a Nintendo Cinematic Universe and we’re just living in it as The Super Mario Bros. Movie once again exceeded expectations in its sophomore frame. Illumination’s animated phenomenon piped in another $92.3 million, far exceeding my $74.9 million take. The two-week tally is an astonishing $353 million. There is a real possibility that this could end up as the highest domestic grosser of 2023.
Russell Crowe’s horror tale The Pope’s Exorcist surprisingly was second with $9 million, edging past my $7.4 million forecast. With a reported $18 million budget, that’s not too shabby though hardly glorious.
John Wick: Chapter 4 was third with $8 million (in range with my $8.4 million call). It’s up to $160 million after 4 weeks.
Spooky comedy Renfield with Nicolas Cage as Dracula was anticipated to see second place, but it wasn’t to be. The fourth place showing at $8 million fell below my $12.2 million estimate. With a fairly sucky B- Cinemascore, look for it to fade quickly.
Air was fifth with $7.8 million in its second weekend. I thought it would hold better and went with $9.5 million. Nevertheless its $33 million total thus far is solid for an adult drama.
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was sixth with $7.5 million (I said $6.9 million) for a so-so $74 million after three weeks.
Toho’s Japanese animated fantasy Suzume couldn’t live up to previous titles from the distributor. It was seventh with $5 million and I was more generous at $8.7 million.
I never did an official prediction for Mafia Mamma with Toni Collette, but I said the poorly reviewed comedy would be lucky to make $2 million. Well, I guess it was lucky because that’s exactly what it did for 8th.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…
***In the meantime, catch my weekly podcast talking box office at Movies at the Speed of Speculation (wherever you stream!).
Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant finds Jake Gyllenhaal back in Jarhead territory in this war thriller. It marks Ritchie’s second release of 2023 after Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre flopped last month. Formerly titled The Interpreter, costars include Dar Salim, Alexander Ludwig, Antony Starr, Emily Beecham, and Jonny Lee Miller.
Gyllenhaal’s previous action flick was a year ago with Ambulance. It performed below expectations with an $8.6 million start. Ritchie’s aforementioned Guerre managed only $3 million in its unfortunate opening.
The Covenant doesn’t seem to be generating much buzz. I think it’ll have a higher premiere than the director’s last effort, but lower than its lead’s predecessor.
Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million
Evil Dead Rise books passage into multiplexes ten years after Sam Raimi’s franchise was rebooted the first time around to lively box office results. Like its 2013 predecessor (which this is not a sequel to), it premiered to praise at South by Southwest in March. Lee Cronin directs a cast including Lily Sullivan, Alyssa Sutherland, and Morgan Davies.
The original Evil Dead from 1981, its 1987 sequel, and 1993’s Army of Darkness from Raimi and star Bruce Campbell are horror comedy classics with deeply devoted followings. When Fede Álvarez’s reboot arrived a decade ago, it received some criticism for lacking the humor of the original trilogy. Nevertheless it debuted to $25 million and that turned out to be a front loaded start as it ended with $54 million domestically.
Rise‘s reviews are far stronger with a Rotten Tomateos score of 94% (compared to 63% for 2013’s effort). While audiences have certainly seen their share of the genre as of late with Scream VI, Renfield, and The Pope’s Exorcist, the brand name and solid buzz might mean $20 million plus is doable. That said, the market is feeing oversaturated and low to mid teens could be the result.
Evil Dead Rise opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million
For my Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant prediction, click here:
Those animated Nintendo plumbers should dominate the box office once again after a massive Easter haul, but there are newcomers to ponder. We have horror comedy Renfield with Nicolas Cage and Nicholas Hoult, less funny horror tale The Pope’s Exorcist featuring Russell Crowe, and Japanese animated fantasy Suzume. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:
Nothing will approach the sophomore frame for The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which soared in its first five days of release (more on that below). The question is not whether it will remain #1 (it will easily), but how far it falls. With an A Cinemascore and no competition for families, I’ll say it drops in the 50% range.
Renfield is garnering pretty decent reviews and a double digits to low teens output should allow it to be the runner-up. Suzume is a little trickier. Other Toho titles have exceeded $10 million for their beginnings and this could do the same. I’m projecting it a tad under for a fourth place showing behind the sophomore weekend for Air (which should have a nice hold).
The Pope’s Exorcist is also a bit of a head scratcher. Horror flicks can certainly over perform and this did decent business overseas this past weekend. Yet with Renfield providing a diversion for eyeballs, this might not even make the top 5.
Finally, I’ll dispense with Mafia Mamma. This Bleecker Street comedy stars Toni Collette and seems to be flying far under the radar. I didn’t do an individual prognosis post for it and haven’t seen a screen count. Given the distributor’s lack of success with earlier projects, this might be lucky to hit $2 million. That would put it nowhere near the high five.
Given that numbers 3-7 especially could be close, I’ll give you my outlook for those spots:
1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $74.9 million
2. Renfield
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
3. Air
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
4. Suzume
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. John Wick: Chapter 4
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
6. The Pope’s Exorcist
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
Box Office Results (April 7-9)
Illumination Entertainment doesn’t really miss when it comes to putting out animated blockbusters (think Despicable Me, Minions, Sing, The Secret Life of Pets franchises). Now they clearly have a host of Nintendo properties that will shower them with coins. The Super Mario Bros. Movie vastly exceeded expectations with $146.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $204.6 million since its Wednesday premiere. That is, to say the least, better than my respective estimates of $98.6 million and $137.7 million. The temperature was clearly right for its massive breakthrough performance as its global $377 million gross is the best ever for an animated feature.
John Wick: Chapter 4 stayed put in second with $14.4 million (on target with my $14.6 million call). The three-week total stands at $146 million.
Ben Affleck’s Air rode a wave of rising buzz to impressive numbers. It made $14.4 million for third with $20.2 million since its Wednesday start. The sports drama managed to top my takes which were $12.7 million and $18.9 million. As mentioned, this should hold up well in the coming weekends.
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was the biggest victim of the Mario wave. In its second weekend, the adventure tumbled 63% to $13.8 million. I was more optimistic with $16.8 million. The ten-day domestic tally is $61 million as its future as a franchise is murky.
Scream VI was fifth with $3.4 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five as it crossed the century mark after five weeks with $103 million.
Finally,faith-based drama His Only Son failed to capitalize on the religious holiday with $2.8 million for sixth. I thought it might do a bit better in frame #2 and said $3.8 million. It’s made $10 million.
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Suzume is the latest animated fantasy from Makoto Shinkai, maker of 2019’s acclaimed Weathering with You. The Japanese production comes from Toho, the studio behind Godzilla and the Demon Slayer pics that have recently posted impressive grosses stateside.
In fact, Toho’s titles in the U.S. have started to develop a familiar pattern of front loaded hauls. In March of 2022, Jujutsu Kaisen 0 made over $17 million during its first frame. That ended up being over half of its eventual $33 million domestic take. Just last month, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village made off with $10.1 million in a special engagement sole weekend.
Like those efforts, Suzume has already made a killing in its home country. With over $100 million in the bank, it is the fourth highest grossing film in Japan from last year.
Opening on approximately 2000 screens, this could hit low double digits like Swordsmith. Compared with next weekend’s other newcomers, that would put it behind Renfield and perhaps ahead of The Pope’s Exorcist. I’m going to put it in higher single digits and that’s still in front of Exorcist.
Not to be confused with The Pope’s Sous-Chef or The Pope’s Orthopedic Surgeon, Sony Pictures gives us The Pope’s Exorcist on April 14th. Julius Avery (Overlord, Samaritan) directs the supernatural horror tale with Russell Crowe as the Pontiff’s chosen demon extractor. Costars include Daniel Zovatto, Alex Essoe, Ralph Ineson, and Franco Nero. ‘
This particular genre subsection has conjured up its share of pics in recent years. Titles like 2018’s The Possession of Hannah Grace and last fall’s Prey for the Devil managed $6.5 million and $7.2 million for their respective starts. 2014’s Deliver Us from Evil made just under $10 million. Meanwhile 2012’s The Possession and 2011’s The Rite hit $17 million and $14 million out of their gates.
Exorcist has competition from Renfield, the vampiric comedy with Nicolas Cage and Nicholas Hoult, premiering directly against it. Evil Dead Rises drops a week later. I think Crowe and company can gross north of $10 million, but I’ll say it falls under.
The Pope’s Exorcist opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million
Universal Pictures is hoping horror and comedy fans add Renfield to their cinematic menu when it debuts April 14th. Nicholas Hoult stars as the title character and beleaguered assistant to Nicolas Cage’s Count Dracula. Chris McKay, who made The Lego Batman Movie and The Tomorrow War, directs. Costars include Awkwafina, Ben Schwartz, Adrian Martinez, and Shohreh Aghdashloo.
Early critical reaction is encouraging with an 89% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Will audiences sink their teeth into it? Renfield arrives on the same day as The Pope’s Exorcist with Russell Crowe and it could siphon away genre fans looking for a scary experience minus the laughs. Both pics hit multiplexes a week before Evil Dead Rise and some fright fest fans may simply wait for that.
Decent word-of-mouth could get this to high teens or even $20 million in the best case scenario. I’ll say double digits to low teens is likelier given the competition.
Renfield opening weekend prediction: $12.2 million
For my The Pope’s Exorcist prediction, click here:
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