Tag: box office predictions

Box Office Predictions: May 22-25

The four day Memorial Day weekend at the box office promises to be a fascinating one as Disney’s Tomorrowland and horror reboot Poltergeist enter the marketplace in competition with holdover hits Pitch Perfect 2, Mad Max: Fury Road, and Avengers: Age of Ultron. It could easily create a situation where all top five films over the holiday frame post numbers north of $25 million. You can read my detailed prediction posts on Tomorrowland and Poltergeist here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/15/tomorrowland-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/16/poltergeist-box-office-prediction/

My predictions reflect a belief that Tomorrowland will manage to top the charts, though it could face competition from Pitch Perfect 2. That musical comedy sequel performed way above expectations this weekend (more on that below) and depending on its drop, could contend for the #1 position, especially if Tomorrowland doesn’t meet projections. That said, I do have Pitch losing over half its audience due to its front loaded amazing start.

My estimate for Poltergeist is a bit on the low end compared to others and I have it debuting third. As for other holdovers, Avengers: Age of Ultron and Mad Max: Fury Road could find themselves in a close race for the four spot, but I’ll give the slight edge to Marvel’s heroes.

And with that, my top five predictions for the four day, Friday to Monday holiday weekend:

1. Tomorrowland

Predicted Gross: $44.6 million

2. Pitch Perfect 2

Predicted Gross: $32.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

3. Poltergeist

Predicted Gross: $29.3 million

4. Avengers: Age of Ultron

Predicted Gross: $26.6 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Mad Max: Fury Road

Predicted Gross: $25.5 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (May 15-17)

As mentioned above, Pitch Perfect 2 had a shockingly great opening with $69.2 million. This marks the largest opening ever for a musical and third biggest comedic debut in history. Even more impressively, it made more in its first three days than its 2012 predecessor made in its entire domestic run ($65M). Perfect soared above my $42M projection and you can rest assure a third edition will be forthcoming.

Mad Max: Fury Road had to settle for a second place start far behind Pitch, but its $45.4 million haul is nothing to be ashamed of. And neither, ladies and gentleman, was my prediction… $45.4M million! Gold star! This is a solid debut for a reboot of a franchise that had been dormant for thirty years and its international grosses have impressed as well.

Avengers: Age of Ultron dropped to third after two weeks on top with $38.8 million, just above my $36.8M prediction. The Marvel tale has amassed $372M so far. The Reese Witherspoon comedy flop Hot Pursuit was fourth with $5.7 million in its sophomore frame, below my $7.2M estimate. The critically drubbed flick’s gross is at just $23M. Furious 7 was fifth with $3.6 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five (its overall is at $343M). I had holdover The Age of Adaline at fifth with $4.1 million, but it was seventh with $3.1M (current earnings: $37M).

And that’s all for now, folks! Enjoy your holiday weekend!

Poltergeist Box Office Prediction

This Friday, yet another remake/reboot of a classic horror entry comes to us as Poltergeist is released. 20th Century Fox is hopeful that the brand name will bring moviegoers in over the long Memorial Day weekend. It’s been 33 years since the Tobe Hooper directed and Steven Spielberg produced original and this reboot stars Sam Rockwell, Rosemarie Dewitt, and Jared Harris.

The high profile May release is a bit surprising and one wonders if this might have been better geared toward an October rollout. Truthfully, this seems to be flying a bit under the radar and is likely to settle for a second place debut at best behind Tomorrowland and maybe behind holdovers Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max: Fury Road. Certainly this could over perform, but that possibility is not reflected in my estimate.

Poltergeist opening weekend prediction: $22.5 million (Friday to Sunday prediction), $29.3 million (Friday to Monday prediction)

For my Tomorrowland prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/15/tomorrowland-box-office-prediction/

Tomorrowland Box Office Prediction

Disney is hoping that over the Memorial Day weekend, a wide swath of moviegoers will choose to make the trip to Tomorrowland. The sci fi adventure opens Friday with a reported $190 million budget and is directed by Brad Bird, who made Pixar classics The Incredibles and Ratatouille and had a successful debut in live action with 2011’s Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol. Bird shares screenplay credit with Damon Lindelof, co-creator of Lost. George Clooney headlines a cast that features Britt Robertson, Hugh Laurie, Kathryn Hahn, Tim McGraw and Judy Greer.

The studio has been successful in keeping the plot details of Tomorrowland closely under wraps and it could succeed in creating a curiosity factor among audiences. The pic looks to appeal to family audiences and sci fi lovers. The Memorial Day release indicates confidence from Disney. One must wonder, however, if all the secrecy could keep some away since most summer releases are sequels and reboots based on known properties.

I could envision Tomorrowland opening in a similar fashion to Super 8, which premiered four summers ago to $35 million. Due to its four day holiday rollout, I’ll say it manages to climb a bit higher than that, albeit with one more day included in the grosses.

Tomorrowland opening weekend prediction: $33.4 million (Friday to Sunday prediction), $44.6 million (Friday to Monday prediction)

For my Poltergeist prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/16/poltergeist-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: May 15-17

Summer 2015’s sequel and reboot mania kicks into high gear this weekend as the critically acclaimed Mad Max: Fury Road (arriving thirty years after the last Max feature) and musical comedy Pitch Perfect 2 hit theaters. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/08/mad-max-fury-road-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/09/pitch-perfect-2-box-office-prediction/

Both should make quite an impact. Fury Road has been blessed with truly awesome trailers and TV spots and its current 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes inspires supreme confidence. Pitch Perfect 2 is the follow-up to a cult hit three years ago and it is also receiving favorable reviews and should capture a hefty young adult/female audience. I look for both to achieve openings north of $40 million.

That likely means Avengers: Age of Ultron will fall to third in its third weekend after two weeks on top, barring the unlikely scenario of the two newbies not meeting expectations. The Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara flop Hot Pursuit should dip to fourth with The Age of Adaline rounding out the top five.

And with that, my predictions the weekend:

1. Mad Max: Fury Road

Predicted Gross: $45.4 million

2. Pitch Perfect 2

Predicted Gross: $42 million

3. Avengers: Age of Ultron

Predicted Gross: $36.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

4. Hot Pursuit

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 48%)

5. The Age of Adaline

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million (representing a drop of 31%)

Box Office Results (May 8-10)

Avengers: Age of Ultron easily maintained its box office dominance, but its 59% drop-off in weekend #2 was a bit steeper than estimated. The Marvel sequel took in $77.7 million, below my $90.6M prediction. The ten day total stands at $313 million. While the numbers it’s accomplishing are gargantuan, this follow-up has no realistic shot of reaching the $623M achieved by the 2012 predecessor.

The Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara comedy Hot Pursuit was savaged by critics and audiences responded in kind with a weak $13.9 million debut, far below my $21.3M projection. Look for this dud to fade fast.

Leftovers populated the rest of the top five and they all experienced smaller dips that I estimated. The Age of Adaline was third with $5.8 million (I predicted $3.5M) and its total is at $31 million. Furious 7 took fourth with $5.4 million (I said $3.5M) for an overall haul of $338M. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 rounded out the top five with $5.3 million (I predicted $3.2M) and its cume sits at $58M. Last and least… the Jack Black comedy rolled out on approximately 1000 screens and sputtered with a putrid $469,000 – not coming close to even my meager $1.7M projection.

That’ll do it for now, folks! Be sure to check this coming weekend for my Tomorrowland and Poltergeist predictions. As always, next Monday I’ll bring you full predictions and results from the coming weekend. Until then…

Pitch Perfect 2 Box Office Prediction

In 2012, the musical comedy Pitch Perfect became a sleeper hit at the box office grossing $65 million and becoming an even larger success when it reached the home video market. Three years later its sequel has earned a plum summer release and considerably higher expectations.

Returning cast members Anna Kendrick, Rebel Wilson, and Brittany Snow are in the mix along with Hailee Steinfeld and a new director, Hunger Games actress Elizabeth Banks. While Mad Max and The Avengers will duke it out for the male audience, Pitch Perfect 2 should score with females and teens.

There is little question that this sequel should easily eclipse the domestic gross of its predecessor. It could find itself in a close race with the aforementioned Max. I think it’ll earn a bit less but Universal Pictures should be quite pleased with the results.

Pitch Perfect 2 opening weekend prediction: $42 million

Mad Max: Fury Road Box Office Prediction

A franchise will be reborn next Friday when Mad Max: Fury Road is unveiled in theaters. It’s been an entire 30 years since the title character has appeared on the silver screen. The original trilogy of dystopian future action flicks made a little known Aussie actor named Mel Gibson a star.

This time around Tom Hardy (of Bane fame) is Max with Charlize Theron and Nicholas Hoult in the supporting cast. George Miller, director of the first trilogy which dates back to 1979 (like me), is behind the camera once again.

There is no doubt that a generation or more of younger moviegoers don’t have much of a connection to the Max character. Yet my suspicion is that Fury Road will open very solid and the absolutely terrific trailers only help. The return of Max could yield an opening gross in the mid 40s as I see it.

Mad Max: Fury Road opening weekend prediction: $45.4 million

Box Office Predictions: May 8-10

Only one new film is daring to even challenge the second weekend of the Avengers squad and that would be Hot Pursuit, the cop comedy starring Reese Witherspoon and Sofia Vergara. It will attempt to bring in the female crowd and you can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/02/hot-pursuit-box-office-prediction/

While I have Pursuit getting off to a pretty decent start, nothing will stand in the way of Iron Man and company reigning supreme for two weeks in a row. The big question is how far Ultron falls in its second frame. Will it drop the 50% that its 2012 predecessor did or in the 58% range of Iron Man 3 in 2013? I’ve got it dropping somewhere in between, though closer to the former (more on Avengers opening weekend further down).

The rest of the top five should be littered with leftovers all making under $4 million. The Jack Black/James Marsden comedy The D Train is only opening on around 700 screens and I’ll predict $1.7 million for it, which would leave it outside the top five.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron

Predicted Gross: $90.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. Hot Pursuit

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

3. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 48%)

4. The Age of Adaline

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 45%)

5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million (representing a drop of 46%)

Box Office Results (May 1-3)

All prognosticators had one question when it came to Avengers: Age of Ultron: would it manage to have the largest domestic opening of all time and beat out the $207.4 million record of The Avengers? I predicted it would with an estimate of $212.7 million.

And I and many others were wrong and you probably have American Pharoah, Blake Griffin, Tim Duncan, Floyd Mayweather, and Manny Pacquiao to thank. Ultron still performed gangbusters with $191.2 million, posting the second all-time domestic debut. Yet the sports bonanza that took place all day and night Saturday likely kept it from setting the record. Still – don’t expect to hear much complaining from Disney or Marvel.

Holdovers populated the rest of the top five with all pictures dropping further than I thought they would, due to Avengers and all the weekend activity. Furious 7 was second with $6.6 million (I said $9.6M) and it lifted its cume to $331M. The Age of Adaline took third in its second weekend with $6.2 million ($8M predicted here) and its ten day total is $23M. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 was fourth with $5.8 million (I said $8.7M) and it’s made $51M at press time. Finally, Home was fifth with $3.4 million (my projection: $5.8M) and its total is $158M.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Hot Pursuit Box Office Prediction

Looking to make the kind of loot that the Sandra Bullock/Melissa McCarthy entry made two summers ago, Hot Pursuit opens this Friday. The comedy stars Reese Witherspoon and Modern Family’s Sofia Vergara. Oscar winner Witherspoon is the bumbling cop protecting Vergara’s witness character.

Reviews have yet to surface and the trailers don’t inspire a whole lot of confidence. There’s also the matter of Avengers: Age of Ultron’s sophomore weekend, in which it should continue to easily dominate. Still, Reese has had a pretty solid track record in this genre, with hits like Legally Blonde, Sweet Home Alabama and Four Christmases. Yet that luck didn’t extend to her last comedy, 2012’s This Means War, which opened to just $17 million and petered out at $54 million domestic.

Pursuit should manage to make more than that and I’ll estimate a fairly decent low 20s premiere.

Hot Pursuit opening weekend prediction: $21.3 million

Box Office Predictions: May 1-3

The 2015 Summer Movie Season officially kicks off this Friday and there’s a rather big release to start things off: Avengers: Age of Ultron, Marvel’s sequel to the third highest grossing picture of all time. The event film stands a very legitimate shot at scoring the largest opening weekend in domestic box office history (breaking its predecessor’s record) and I’m predicting it will – barely. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/24/avengers-age-of-ultron-box-office-prediction/

No other new release would dare stand in the way of Iron Man, Captain America, and their superhero compadres – so the rest of the top five will be populated by spring leftovers. Furious 7 will fall to the runner-up spot with Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2, The Age of Adaline, and Home behind it.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron

Predicted Gross: $212.7 million

2. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million (representing a drop of 46%)

3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. The Age of Adaline

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 40%)

5. Home

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 29%)

Box Office Results (April 24-26)

As expected, Furious 7 led the box office for the fourth weekend in a row with $17.8 million, a bit higher than my $15.6M estimate. The massive hit has taken in $320 million so far.

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 also managed to surpass my prediction in its second weekend with $14.7 million as compared to my $12M projection. The Kevin James sequel won’t reach the heights of the original, but it’s grossed a solid $43 million in ten days of release.

The romantic drama The Age of Adaline had a fairly decent roll out with $13.2 million, right on target with $13.3M prediction. It may hold up OK in subsequent weekends.

The animated Home took fourth with $8 million, outpacing my $6.5M estimate and its total is at $153M. #5 belonged to horror pic Unfriended in weekend two with $6.1 million, just under my $6.9M prediction and it stands at $25 million.

Critically acclaimed British sci-fi import Ex Machina opened sixth with $5.4 million (below my $7.1M projection, but still a pretty impressive start).

Finally, war drama Little Boy tanked in 13th place with just $2.7 million, just ahead of my $2.1M estimate.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Avengers: Age of Ultron Box Office Prediction

The 2015 Summer Movie Season kicks off in grand fashion as Avengers: Age of Ultron debuts and looks to Hulk smash records. The mystery surrounding how it performs in its opening is centered on one question: will it have the biggest domestic debut in movie history? In order to do so, it’ll need to top the record currently held by its 2012 predecessor. That magic number is $207.4 million.

All the favorites are back, including director Joss Whedon with Iron Man, Captain America, Thor, Black Widow, Hulk, Hawkeye, and more returning. Newbies include James Spader voicing the title character villain and Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Elizabeth Olsen as Quicksilver and Scarlet Witch. There are two more Avengers features already planned for 2018 and 2019. While a number of reviews say it doesn’t quite match the original, its 80% Rotten Tomatoes rating is solid.

There is little doubt that Ultron is highly primed to become summer’s largest grosser. Whether or not it reaches the $623M eventual mark of The Avengers remains to be seen (that’s good for the 3rd biggest hit ever behind Avatar and Titanic).

Some prognosticators are estimating it may not quite reach the heights of 2012 in its opening. The floor would seem to be in the $180M range, which would be just fine but still $25M under the first. While that’s certainly possible, I do believe Ultron will debut with around the same number of its predecessor… and a bit higher. That means I’m predicting Ultron will set a new benchmark in the category of all-time record openings and Disney and Marvel will be popping the champagne corks come next weekend.

Avengers: Age of Ultron opening weekend prediction: $212.7 million