Blogger’s Update (Saturday, 01/21, 4:56pm): As mentioned below, I have decided to reconsider and revise my opening weekend prediction for ADog’sPurpose due to the swirling controversy regarding it. I am revising down from $17.9 million to just $10.3 million now.
Blogger’s Update (Wednesday, 01/18, 6:24pm): The prediction below for ADog’sPurpose was written prior to the Wednesday, January 18th allegations in the media involving animal mistreatment on set. Obviously, this story could alter my estimate and I will be monitoring the story as it progresses. I will keep my current projection for the time being, but it is likely to change. I will post further updates as needed.
A Dog’s Purpose is based on a very successful 2010 bestseller by W. Bruce Cameron and the film version hits theaters next weekend. Chronicling the existence of one of man’s best friends through various incarnations, Purpose comes from director Lasse Hallstrom, who was nominated for an Oscar over 30 years ago for Swedish pic My Life as a Dog (he also made The Cider House Rules and Chocolat). Human stars here include Britt Robertson, Dennis Quaid, Josh Gad, and Peggy Lipton (yep, the one from TV’s “The Mod Squad”!).
This adaptation could be rather successful in bringing in a female audience (and dog lovers for that matter). The well-known source material should help and I even think it will likely surpass the opening weekend of its main competitor, Resident Evil: The Final Chapter.
I’ll estimate that Purpose reaches in the mid to high teens for a decent debut. That’s only about half of what Marley and Me made in 2008, but it’s still pretty doggone good.
A Dog’s Purpose opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million
**REVISED NUMBER BASED ON EVENTS
For my Resident Evil: The Final Chapter prediction, click here:
As if the six films crowding the MLK four-day weekend wasn’t enough this past frame, there are now five more hitting theaters in wide release on Friday. They are: Vin Diesel action sequel xXx: Return of Xander Cage, M. Night Shyamalan horror thriller Split, Michael Keaton led Ray Kroc biopic The Founder, comedic drama 20th Century Women with Annette Bening, and faith-based pic The Resurrection of Gavin Stone. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, Mr. Diesel is likely to rule the weekend, though a higher than expected gross for Split would not surprise me (reviews are good and so are the TV spots). The three and four spots should be filled with two awards hopefuls already doing brisk business: two-week champ Hidden Figures and Best Picture front runner La La Land.
As for The Founder, it’s only debuting on 1100 screens which should hinder its potential. My $4.1 million estimate puts it just outside the top 10. I anticipate both 20th Century Women ($2.8M forecast) and Gavin Stone ($1.6M prediction) to be pretty far outside my projected 10.
And here is that top 10 from where I see it:
1. xXx: Return of Xander Cage
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million
2. Split
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
3. Hidden Figures
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. La La Land
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 22%)
5. Sing
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 41%)
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)
7. Patriots Day
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 39%)
8. Monster Trucks
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)
9. The Bye Bye Man
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 57%)
10. Sleepless
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
Box Office Results (January 13-16)
Those ladies from NASA held onto the top spot for the second weekend in a row as Hidden Figures topped the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday weekend with earnings of $27.5 million. This is a bit above my predicted figure of $24.1M and brings its tally to $61 million.
The animated Sing was second with $19 million (past my $16.4M estimate) as it stands at a pleasing $238 million total.
LaLaLand sang and danced its way to third place one weekend after cleaning up at the Golden Globes. It earned $17.7 million (I was lower with $13.7M) and its total is at $77 million, barreling towards $100M as Oscar nominations are due next week.
RogueOne: AStarWarsStory was fourth with $16.8 million (I was close with $16.4M). The highest grosser of 2015 padded its gross to $501 million.
The top four did not include a single one of the six newbies that entered the marketplace. The biggest grosser of that group was surprisingly low-budget horror pic TheByeByeMan. It earned an impressive $15.2 million, well beyond my $8.8M projection.
Kiddie flick MonsterTrucks opened in sixth with $14.1 million. The good news? That was better than my $10.1M guesstimate. The bad news? It still had an inexplicable $115M budget and is a sizable flop.
PatriotsDay with Mark Wahlberg posted an unimpressive debut in seventh with $13.7 million, nearly $10M under my $23.6M prediction. It did garner an A+ Cinemascore so its best hope is for low drop-offs in the coming weekends.
The Jamie Foxx action thriller Sleepless premiered in eighth with a rather sleepy $9.7 million, on pace with my $10.3M take.
Underworld: BloodWars dropped to ninth in its sophomore frame with $7.2 million, just above my $6.6M projection. It’s made $25 million thus far.
Passengers rounded out the top ten with $6.4 million and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. The total is $90 million as it looks to top the century club.
Perhaps the biggest stunner of the weekend was the dismal performance of Ben Affleck’s LivebyNight. The gangster drama which received middling reviews bombed in 12th place with just $6 million, less than half of my $13.2M prediction.
Finally, Martin Scorsese’s Silence also flopped as it widened its release. The faith centered passion project for the celebrated director made just $2.3 million in 16th place, not quite reaching my $3M forecast.
Faith based comedic drama The Resurrection of Gavin Stone debuts next weekend and it hopes to over perform like several other Christian themed pics have in recent years. Co-produced in part by Blumhouse Tilt and WWE Studios, it stars Brett Dalton, Anjelah Johnson, Neil Flynn, Shawn Michaels (yep, the wrestler), and D.B. Sweeney (yep, one half of the ice skating duo in early 90s flick The Cutting Edge).
Focusing on a washed up child star who pretends to be a person of faith to play Jesus in a megachurch production, Stone comes with just a teeny $2 million budget. Profitability shouldn’t be a tall order.
That said, I expect it to fall just under its budget in the opening frame with the caveat that it could surprise a bit.
The Resurrection of Gavin Stone opening weekend prediction: $1.6 million
For my xXx: Return of Xander Cage prediction, click here:
20th Century Women first screened at the New York Film Festival in the fall and quickly became mentioned for awards attention. The 1970s set comedic drama is directed by Mike Mills and stars Annette Bening, Greta Gerwig, Elle Fanning, and Billy Crudup. Reviews have been strong and it stands at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Yet it can’t be denied that its Oscar hopes have appeared to dim significantly. Its Best Picture prospects appear gone and even Annette Bening (once looked at as a sure fire Actress nominee) could be on the outside looking in. This is important because the lack of buzz could greatly hurt its box office abilities when it opens wide next weekend.
Women has performed decently in limited release, but I’m not convinced that will hold true for its roll out. I’ll say this manages just under $3 million.
20th Century Women opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million
For my xXx: Return of Xander Cage prediction, click here:
Michael Keaton has had the rare feat of appearing in the last two Best Picture Oscar winners with 2014’s Birdman and 2015’s Spotlight. For awhile, TheFounder (out next weekend) was looked at as potential awards bait. Keaton headlines the biographical drama playing Ray Kroc, the man who acquired what would become the multi billion dollar McDonald’s franchise. John Lee Hancock directs and his previous efforts include TheBlindSide and SavingMr. Banks. Laura Dern, Nick Offerman, John Carroll Lynch, Linda Cardellini, Patrick Wilson, and B.J. Novak costar.
TheFounder has had a shifty journey to the big screen. It was originally tapped to debut in November before being pushed up to August before being pushed back to January. It had a very limited release in December to qualify for Academy consideration, but that probably won’t matter much. While reviews so far have been decent (81% on Rotten Tomatoes), it’s likely to receive zero nominations. This won’t be a Keaton trifecta for Best Picture.
What does it all mean for the box office? While any moviegoer is certainly familiar with the subject matter, I don’t that see that translating to much business. That said, the pic comes with just a tiny reported $7 million budget. I’ll predict it mkea under that in its first weekend for a mid single digits start.
TheFounder opening weekend prediction: $4.1 million
For my xXx: ReturnofXanderCage prediction, click here:
The cinematic horror stylings of M. Night Shyamalan returns to theaters next weekend when Split debuts. His latest fright fest stars James McAvoy as a man with multiple personalities who kidnaps three teen girls. Anya Taylor-Joy and Betty Buckley are among the costars acting alongside all of McAvoy’s characters.
Split screened at a couple of film festivals during the fall and early word suggests a return to form for the auteur. The current Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 82%. Of course, Shyamalan’s filmography is a checkered one. He sprinted out of the gate with commercial and critical hits such as TheSixthSense, Unbreakable, and Signs. Disappointments from critics and audiences would come with LadyintheWater, TheHappening, and AfterEarth. His previous effort, 2015’s TheVisit, drew mixed reaction from reviewers and crowds yet it debuted with a better than anticipated $25 million weekend and $65M overall domestic take.
In fact, the smallest first weekend from the director since he’s become a celebrity in his own right remains LadyintheWater at $18 million. I incorrectly predicted TheVisit would open under that over one year ago and was proven wrong.
With solid reviews and effective TV spots and trailers, I’ll predict Split gets over that $18 million figure and just shy of $20M.
Split opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million
For my xXx: ReturnofXanderCage prediction, click here:
Well, folks, it’s the third four-day holiday box office frame in four weekends as MLK Day is Monday and there’s a total of six (yes six) pictures debuting or rolling out in wide release. They are: the Peter Berg directed Boston Marathon dramatic thriller Patriots Day, Ben Affleck’s gangster pic Live by Night, Jamie Foxx action flick Sleepless, inexplicably huge budget and long delayed family pic Monster Trucks, horror entry The Bye Bye Man, and Martin Scorsese’s historical epic Silence. You can experience my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:
With this infusion of new product invading the marketplace, it could create a lot of intrigue as to what comes out on top. The four-day frame should mean rather small drops for returnees (Underworld could be the exception) and in some cases, we could see increases.
Hidden Figures got off to a terrific start in wide release. With an A+ Cinemascore grade and rapturous word of mouth, I see a slight increase for it that might be enough to keep it #1, ever so slightly ahead of Patriots Day. I believe that it will have the highest debut of the newbies.
My estimates put Live by Night in sixth with a disappointing debut with Sing and Rogue One in third and fourth. Other newcomers (Sleepless, Trucks, Bye Bye) will be in the 7-8-9 spots as I believe La La Land will post a fifth place showing. This is due to its huge success at the Golden Globes and an expected significant increase in screens next weekend.
Finally, Silence is only debuting on 750 screens and I expect it to fall outside of the top ten.
And with that, my top ten predictions for the long and bustling weekend:
1. Hidden Figures
Predicted Gross: $24.1 million (representing an increase of 6%)
2. Patriots Day
Predicted Gross: $23.6 million
3. Sing
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million (representing a drop of 21%)
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 27%)
5. La La Land
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing an increase of 36%)
6. LivebyNight
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
7. Sleepless
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
8. Monster Trucks
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million
9. The Bye Bye Man
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
10. Underworld: Blood Wars
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 51%)
Box Office Results (January 6-8)
In a rather surprising result, Hidden Figures dislodged Rogue One from the top spot with a better than expected $22.8 million. This tops my $19.3M projection. As mentioned, its encouraging audience reaction bodes well for this weekend and beyond.
Rogue One slipped to second after three weeks on top with $22 million, under my $28.2M estimate for a total of $477M.
Sing was third with $20.7 million (under my $25.3M prediction) for a $214 overall tally.
Underworld: Blood Wars, the first new 2017 wide release, posted lackluster results in fourth with just $13.6 million (I was higher at $17.6M). All four previous franchise entries had debuted to over $20M.
La La Land rounded out the top five with $10.1 million (I said $12.8M) to bring its gross to $51M.
The rest of the top ten were all holdovers and were as follows:
6. Passengers: $8.8 million ($80M total). My prediction: $9 million
7. Why Him?: $6.9 million ($48M total). My prediction: $6 million
8. Moana: $6.3 million ($225M total). My prediction: $6.6 million.
9. Fences: $4.8 million ($40M total). My prediction: $6.7 million.
10. Assassin’s Creed: $4.1 million ($49M total). My prediction: $4.2M.
Finally, the critically acclaimed A Monster Calls was ignored by audiences and made just $2 million out of the gate, lower than my $3.4M forecast.
Horror fans get their first taste of the genre in 2017 as The Bye Bye Man hits theaters next weekend. The low-budget flick finds a group of college students tormented by the title character (Doug Jones). Costars include Douglas Smith, Cressida Bonas, Carrie-Anne Moss, and Faye Dunaway.
Made for just $6 million, Bye Bye is likely to turn a profit no matter what. Scary movies are notoriously tough to predict (they over perform more often than not), yet I’m not sure this will conjure up much business. It could perform similarly to last January’s The Boy, which opened to $10.8M. Bye Bye will have the four-day MLK weekend to try and reach double digits, but I’ll predict it falls just short of that (still managing to easily top its price tag out of the gate).
The Bye Bye Man opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million
Blogger’s Update: Silence prediction being revised down based on reported theater count on just 750 screens.
One of Martin Scorsese’s passion projects finally rolls out in wide release next weekend when Silence debuts. The historical epic was shot entirely in Taiwan and tells the story of two Jesuit priests in Japan during the 17th century. Andrew Garfield (fresh off his well received turn in Hacksaw Ridge), Adam Driver, Liam Neeson, Ciaran Hinds, and Issey Ogata (garnering some Oscar chatter) star.
Speaking of Oscar chatter, Silence has been the subject of it. However, its inclusion in the Best Picture race is not assured. If that chatter had been louder, it may have helped box office performance. Additionally, the pic is debuting on a packed weekend in which there’s plenty of other adult fare competing for attention, including Patriots Day and Live by Night.
The best hope for Silence may be a host of Academy Awards nods that will be announced nearly two weeks after its release. That could propel it to steady grosses over awards season. As for its opening, I believe low to mid single digits is the likely scenario.
Paramount Pictures may have an enormous flop on their hands when MonsterTrucks next weekend. And that’s not just me saying that, folks. The studio itself has reportedly taken a $115 million write down on the project due to its anticipated bad performance.
Made for an inexplicable $125 million, the 3D live-action/computer animated flick is hoping to appeal to young boys who may drag their parents simply based on its title. Chris Wedge, known for animated fare such as IceAge and Robots, directs. The cast includes Lucas Till, Jane Levy, Amy Ryan, Rob Lowe, Danny Glover, Barry Pepper, and lots of questionable looking CG based on the trailers. Trucks has been in the can for some time. It was originally scheduled to come out over a year and a half ago and then experienced multiple delays.
Coproduced by Nickelodeon Movies, the fact that a film of this budget has been relegated to a crowded January weekend tells you all you need to know. I believe Monster will just top double digits over the long MLK weekend and earn its expected status as a bomb.
MonsterTrucks opening weekend prediction: $10.1 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 